Chapter 3 Statistical Concept

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Statistical Concept

Chapter 2 : Statistical Concept

PURPOSE:
Introduction of statistical concept

OBJECTIVE: Introducing basic concept of the normal distribution 1. Normal Curve 2. Average, Variance, Standard Deviation 3. Process Capability(Z - Score)

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Statistical Concept
Overall testing of certain population can be difficult in the view of timely and economical point. Therefore, statistical analysis means that statistical parameter is being used for figuring the overall character of certain population after you find quality characteristics by taking sample which represents population characteristic well instead of overall testing. First of all, define the statistical parameter before six sigma is commented.

Sigma, Greek letter is described as standard deviation nearby average value in statistics.
Mean is the average of the distribution.

What is the probability ?

If you flip a coin, the probability of heads and fails is each 50 to 50 If you throw a die, the probability of each number is 1/6=16.67% The bating ratio of certain baseball player is 0.290, the probability of hit is 290 to 1000 opportunities. Under the unpredictable circumstances randomly, the probability of any mishaps can be predictable by its nature of probability.
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Statistical Concept
What is Sigma with the probability ?
Sigma represents the data variation trend on a average centered. For example, take commuting time to go to work. Q : How long does it take to go to the office? A : About 25 minutes, more or less. Q : What does it mean, more or less? A : About 5 minuets.
More specifically, then If we describe this statistically, we should say that it takes 25 minutes to the office, and there is a 5 minutes variation. In case of having average and spread, what time do you have to start home not to be late for work, everyday until 8:00? If we look into 5 minute variation(difference) a little more exactly...

Working frequency

1 month Data
x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

Working frequency

3 month Data

x x x x x x x

18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32

18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32

Suppose that we, everyday, go to work on time zone standing such a distribution as the above graph.

The normal curve stands a line connecting smoothly with the center of each bar typed a bell stood from Histogram.
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Statistical Concept
Looking into Sigma(frequently Z), we can predict very correctly.
Certain phenomenon has a normality in most cases. You can indicate normal distribution statistically as a regular daily business. Normal Distribution Mean = 25
Standard Deviation = 5 68%

Standard Normal Distribution Mean = 0

Standard Deviation = 1

95%

- Measurement(Time) : 10 Z-Value : -3 15 -2 20 -1

99.7% 25 0 30 1 35 2 40 3

In case of normal distribution, Z value, Z = (X- )/ = (40 - 25) / 5 = 3 When USL(Upper Spec Limit) is 40 minutes, Process capability at present is Z=3 or 3.

Z value is measurement unit of having how many standard deviations () from the average with the measured data.
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Statistical Concept
Start from home 16% 84% 98% - Measurement : Short measuring data 10 - 1.5 15 - 0.5 20 0.5 25 1.5 30 2.5 35 3.5 40 4.5 99.9% 50%

99.99966% +
47.5 6.0

* There is a shift around 1.5from obtained data in short term to long term data. Short term process capability equals long term process capability + 1.5.

How long does it take to get to the office not to be late for? The probability that you can get to the office in 30 minutes is 84%, The probability you can get to the office in 40 minutes is 99.9%, You have to start from home before 47.5 minutes not to be late for work as the probability of 6 or 99.99966%. That is, you must start 06:12 to get to the office until 07:00.
** What should we do about the current problem to accomplish 6level as design standard is usually fixed status? ** In case of transaction, you should decide customers specification frequently through Benchmarking or customers survey.

Understanding the process of 6 sigma, you can shift the average value and reduce variation efficiently, if you use the statistical tool.
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Statistical Concept

Normal Curve

Connecting line with the center of the bar graph

The center of bar

Given that 100% of the normal curve lies between , we may calculate that area which lies beyond the performance limit. Doing so would reveal the random chance probability of creating a defect.

Performance Limit

Area of Yield

Probability of a Defect

Measuring Unit

* USL (Upper Spec Limit)

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Statistical Concept Standard Deviation

Mean m
The size or a standard deviation shows the distances between the inflection point and the mean. We could say the process has 3 sigma capability, if 3 deviations are fittable between the target and the specification limit.

Inflection Point

* Mean : Sample set or the average value of the N population S Xi Average of i=1 Population is m = N S Xi Sample average i=1 is m = X = n * Standard Deviation is the square root of the variance
n

1 3

p(d)

-Standard deviation of population N 2 S ( Xi - m )

=S=

i=1

USL

-Samples standard deviation

=s=

S ( Xi - X )
i =1

3
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Statistical Concept
** Area under the curve = 1, Target = 0 **
Let us suppose that we calculate the standard normal deviate for a given performance limit and discover that Z=2.76. The question becomes, that portion of the total area under the normal curve lies beyond a Z value of 2.76? Answering this question will give us the probability of producing a defect. Remember, the Z value is a measure of process capability and is often referred to as the sigma of the process, not to be confused with the process standard deviation.

The Standard Normal Deviate

Total Area = 1

Performance Limit

Probability of Defect
Example = .00289

Z
Z 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.35 1.40 1.45 1.50 Area .500000000 .480061306 .460172290 .440382395 .420740315 .401293634 .382088486 .363169226 .344578129 .326355105 .308537454 .291159644 .274253121 .257846158 .241963737 .226627465 .211855526 .197662672 .184060243 .171056222 .158655319 .146859086 .135666053 .125071891 .115069593 .105649671 .096800364 .088507862 .080756531 .073529141 .066807100 Z 1.51 1.56 1.61 1.66 1.71 1.76 1.81 1.86 1.91 1.96 2.01 2.06 2.11 2.16 2.21 2.26 2.31 2.36 2.41 2.46 2.51 2.56 2.61 2.66 2.71 2.76 2.81 2.86 2.91 2.96 3.01 Area .065521615 .059379869 .053698886 .048457216 .043632958 .039203955 .035147973 .031442864 .028066724 .024998022 .022215724 .019699396 .017429293 .015386434 .013552660 .011910681 .010444106 .009137469 .007976235 .006946800 .006036485 .005233515 .004527002 .003906912 .003364033 .002889938 .002476947 .002118083 .001807032 .001538097 .001306156 Z 3.02 3.07 3.12 3.17 3.22 3.27 3.32 3.37 3.42 3.47 3.52 3.57 3.62 3.67 3.72 3.77 3.82 3.87 3.92 3.97 4.02 4.07 4.12 4.17 4.22 4.27 4.32 4.37 4.42 4.47 4.52 Area .001263795 .001070234 .000904215 .000762175 .000640954 .000537758 .000450127 .000375899 .000313179 .000260317 .000215873 .000178601 .000147419 .000121399 .000099739 .000081753 .000066855 .000054545 .000044399 .000036057 .000029215 .000023617 .000019047 .000015327 .000012305 .000009857 .000007878 .000006282 .000004998 .000003968 .000003143 Z

The table lists the tail area to the right of Z

Area .000002999 .000002369 .000001867 .000001469 .000001153 .000000903 .000000705 .000000550 .000000428 .000000332 .000000258 .000000199 .000000154 .000000118 .000000091 .000000070 .000000053 .000000041 .000000031 .000000024 .000000018 .000000014 .000000010 .000000008 .000000006 .000000004 .000000003 .000000003 .000000002 .000000001 .000000001

T=0

Unit of measure

Z = 2.76

Table of Area Under the Normal Curve

4.53 4.58 4.63 4.68 4.73 4.78 4.83 4.88 4.93 4.98 5.03 5.08 5.13 5.18 5.23 5.28 5.33 5.38 5.43 5.48 5.53 5.58 5.63 5.68 5.73 5.78 5.83 5.88 5.93 5.98 6.03

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Statistical Concept
Using Z as a Measure of Capability

Z=6
1 2 3 4 56

USL

+6 Capability

Z=
Z=3
1 2 3

SL -m

As variation decreases, the probability of a defect decreases for a given specification limit, so capability increases.

USL

+3 Capability

What should we do statistically to improve 6 level of process capability understanding the issue of phenomenon analysis?
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Statistical Concept

3) Understanding the concept of Cp

Design Tolerance

Cp =

Product Capability

USL - LSL 6

This is one that represents process distribution and range only regardless of the location of mean.

Cpk = (1 - K)Cp

Here K =

M-x T/2

M = Nominal, T = Tolerance

In case of process deviation, Process Capability Index

* How to increase Cp 1st, securing design margin to increase design tolerance in procedure of product design. 2nd, theres an Improvement activity of process design to reduce process dispersion. We need two ways on the above for improvement action at the same time to optimize process capability. That is, using concurrent engineering itself.

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Statistical Concept
4) Process Capability Index formula
LSL

USL

Balanced

Both Spec.

USL - LSL CP = 6
X

One End Spec. (Upper Spec Limit)

USL - X CP = 3
X

One End Spec. (Lower Spec Limit)

CP =
T (Tolerance)

X - LSL 3

Shift

CPK = ( 1 - k ) CP M-X k=

Both Spec. X

M-X

M (Nominal)

T/2

*In case of One End Specification regardless of specific limit, Cp equals Cpk. (Should be less than 25dB)
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