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  • Decision Trees in 30 Minutes: An Introduction

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    Jasneet Kaur
    213 tayangan9 halaman
    This document provides an overview of decision trees including: 1) Diagrams of decision trees show decision nodes, chance nodes, outcomes, and expected values. 2) Examples of decision trees include decisions with and without uncertainty, like rolling dice or hiring a consultant. 3) Expected value is calculated by multiplying each outcome by its probability and adding the results to determine the best alternative. 4) Simple decision trees are presented for surgery vs medication, games to play, and weather.

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    Decision Trees

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    This document provides an overview of decision trees including: 1) Diagrams of decision trees show decision nodes, chance nodes, outcomes, and expected values. 2) Examples of decision trees include decisions with and without uncertainty, like rolling dice or hiring a consultant. 3) Expected value is calculated by multiplying each outcome by its probability and adding the results to determine the best alternative. 4) Simple decision trees are presented for surgery vs medication, games to play, and weather.

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    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Unduh sebagai PPT, PDF, TXT atau baca online dari Scribd
    Tandai sebagai konten tidak pantas
    213 tayangan9 halaman

    Decision Trees in 30 Minutes: An Introduction

    Diunggah oleh

    Jasneet Kaur
    This document provides an overview of decision trees including: 1) Diagrams of decision trees show decision nodes, chance nodes, outcomes, and expected values. 2) Examples of decision trees include decisions with and without uncertainty, like rolling dice or hiring a consultant. 3) Expected value is calculated by multiplying each outcome by its probability and adding the results to determine the best alternative. 4) Simple decision trees are presented for surgery vs medication, games to play, and weather.

    Hak Cipta:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Unduh sebagai PPT, PDF, TXT atau baca online dari Scribd
    Tandai sebagai konten tidak pantas
    dari 9

    Decision Trees

    in 30 minutes

    Anne Ku
    15 September 2005

    Diagram
    Decision nodes & alternatives Chance nodes & probabilities Outcomes Expected values Rolling back Perfect and imperfect information

    Examples
    Decisions only - no uncertainty Uncertainties only - no decision Roll of dice, flip of a coin Imperfect information: test, sample, rumour, hire consultant Perfect information: perfect foresight, clairvoyant

    Expected Value
    Also known as weighted average (as all the probabilities add to one) Multiply each outcome of an uncertain alternative by its probability, then Add the results together Expected value criterion: choose the alternative with the highest or lowest expected value (depending on whether more is better, or less is better)

    Simple decision trees


    Surgery or medication example Which game to play? Tossing a die What to wear & weather changes Tutorial: how to build decision trees

    Flu Vaccine: introduce or not?


    A government committee is considering the economic benefits of a program of preventative flu vaccinations. If vaccinations are not introduced then the estimated cost to the government if flu strikes in the next year is 7m with probability 0.1, 10m with probability 0.3 and 15m with probability 0.6. It is estimated that such a program will cost 7m and that the probability of flu striking in the next year is 0.75.One alternative is to institute an "earlywarning" monitoring scheme (costing 3m) which will help detect an outbreak of flu early and hence institute a rush vaccination program (costing 10m because of the need to vaccinate quickly before the outbreak spreads).

    R&D Funding
    GM was evaluating two competing technologies in their engine development program. One used a new type of coating (Project A), while the other incorporated a new material (Project B). Project A had been going on for some time when Project B was identified. While they could be researched simultaneously, the two technologies offered the same benefits and could not be implemented together. The decision alternatives were therefore:1. Continue with Project A only 2. Stop Project A and start Project B 3. Do both 4. Cease Project A and not do Project B.

    Applications
    Medical, healthcare, pharmaceutical Energy Business Manufacturing Litigation: sue, claim, mediation R&D investment Drug research Drilling for oil Product planning Product development Capacity planning Applying for a job, graduate school, project proposal EXAMPLES

    Exercises
    Draw a decision tree at the time when you were applying to get into college. Which colleges did you apply? What were your chances? Assign values. Draw a decision tree for job hunting Draw a decision tree for choosing a date Draw a decision tree for travelling

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