Medicin del Impacto de una Cibercampaa en la Red

Montse Fernndez Crespo

Medicin Cibercampaa
Anlisis de Redes Sociales

Encuesta tradicional

http://www

Medicin Cibercampaa
Anlisis de Redes Sociales. Elecciones Menciones
Predicting elections with Twitter: What 140 characters reveal about political sentiment The mere number of tweets mentioning a political party can be considered a plausible Encuesta tradicional reflection of the vote share and its predictive power even comes close to traditional election polls.

Medicin Cibercampaa
Anlisis de Redes Sociales. Elecciones Sentiment analysis
Form tweets to polls: linking text sentiment to public opinion time series While Encuesta tradicional our results vary across datasets, in several cases the correlations are as high as 80%, and capture important large-scale trends. The results highlight the potential of text streams as a substitute and supplement for traditional polling.

Presidential job approval in 2009 Pesidential elections polls in 2008

100% correlacin Correlacin no significativa

Medicin Cibercampaa
Anlisis de Redes Sociales. Herramientas

Encuesta tradicional

Medicin Cibercampaa
Anlisis de Redes Sociales. Informacin
Monitorizando Twitter y analizando tweets:

Evolucin de los sucesos en el tiempo, Enlaces recomendados, Redes dinmicas de usuarios, Comunidades que se establecen, Influencia de los usuarios,

Encuesta tradicional

@congosto

Medicin Cibercampaa
Anlisis de Redes Sociales. Elecciones
What is a Social Network Worth? Facebook and Vote Share in the 2008 Presidential Primaries The political impact of facebook: Evidence from the 2006 midterm elections and 2008 nomination contest

Thus while Facebook supporter numbers would not be a useful predictor that foreshadows electoral victory or defeat, the most electable candidates do have more Facebook supporters

Encuesta tradicional

60339 seguidores

14213 seguidores

Medicin Cibercampaa REDES SOCIALES EN INTERNET

Anlisis de Redes Sociales. Elecciones
Facebook politics

EEUU 2010
118 elecciones

77 ganadores con + likes

43 ganadores con + likes dinero

http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=449141550881

Medicin Cibercampaa
Anlisis de Redes Sociales. Herramientas

Encuesta tradicional

Medicin Cibercampaa
Anlisis de Redes Sociales. Elecciones

On the predictability of the u.s. elections through search volume activity In this paper we report that Google Trends was, actually, not a good predictor of both the 2008 and 2010 elections

http://cs.wellesley.edu/~webtrust/insights/?cand_id=4

Medicin Cibercampaa
Anlisis de Redes Sociales. Herramientas

Encuesta tradicional

Medicin Cibercampaa
Anlisis de Redes Sociales. Elecciones

http://www

Use of the Web in the 1996 US Election Does Cyber-Campaigning Win Votes? Online Communication in the 2004 Australian Election We conclude that web campaigning, at least under present electoral conditions, constitutes an important component of a winning election strategy.

+ 9,3% votos de los previstos + 4% preferencia de voto

Prediccin electoral
Anlisis de Redes Sociales. Herramientas

Encuesta tradicional

Medicin Cibercampaa
Anlisis de Redes Sociales. Elecciones
Forecasting Elections. Comparing Predictions Markets, Polls and their biases

In 2008, FiveThirtyEight, a Encuesta tradicional debiased poll-based forecast, offered to the general public a more accurate forecast than raw poll numbers or raw prediction market. But, the analysis here shows that were Intrades prices debiased, they would have provided a more accurate forecast and more valuable information than the best poll-based forecasts currently available, especially early in the cycle and in uncertain races.

Medicin Cibercampaa
Anlisis de Redes Sociales. Elecciones
Pay no attention to the pollster behind the curtain There are many ways to keep Encuesta tradicional score on whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney has better odds of winning the general election, which is almost exactly six months away. Here at The Signal, we are fervent evangelists of the political prediction markets, where people place real money on the line to bet on the winner. These markets proved to be more prescient than polls in the Republican primary.
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/pay-no-attention-pollster-behind-curtain-194657457.html

Prediccin electoral
Mrgenes de error

Encuestas tradicionales

Anlisis Redes Sociales

Prediccin electoral
Mrgenes de error. Encuestas tradicionales

Encuesta tradicional

Prediccin Electoral
Anlisis de Redes Sociales. Elecciones Twitter NO predice
Limits of electoral predictions using Twitter A warning against converting Social Media into de next Literary Digest Until Social Media becomes regularly used by the vast majority of people, Encuesta tradicional its users cannot considered a representative sample and, thus, forecast from such data will be of questionable value at best and incorrect in many cases.

2008 U.S. Presidential Elections 2010 U.S. Congressional Elections

Sobreestimada victoria de Obama Sin correlacin

Prediccin electoral

Encuestas tradicionales

Anlisis Redes Sociales

Ahora

Futuro?

Medicin Cibercampaa
Anlisis de Redes Sociales. Monitorizar una campaa

Definir perodo de monitorizacin (15 das de campaa) Bsqueda de perfiles de candidatos en todas las Redes Encuesta tradicional Correcta denominacin de los candidatos Recuento de seguidores en al menos 2 momentos (inicio y fin) Vigilar hashtag de campaa

La informacin que no se monitorice en campaa puede ser informacin perdida

Medicin Cibercampaa
Anlisis de Redes Sociales

Encuesta tradicional

Gracias!!!
Montse Fernndez Crespo 2012 @montsefc