Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta

Bandung Institute of Technology
Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta

Dr. Armi Susandi, MT.
National Council on Climate Change Republic of Indonesia
OUTLINE

Background Objective Basic Concept Data and Methodology Result Analysis Conclusions
Background
Global climate change causes many areas in Indonesia to be vulnerable on its impacts. Jakarta is projected to be a vulnerable region with high magnitude as compared with the other Indonesia regions. Up to recent, disaster frequently occurred in Jakarta as impact of pattern change in rainfall.
Objective
Building model to make map of vulnerable index to climate change impacts in Jakarta. Performing analysis regarding to Jakarta vulnerable index to find the solution as adaptation planning to climate change.
Basic Concept
CLIMATE CHANGE Human Interference
Including Variability
Exposure Initial Impacts
VULNERABILITIES
IMPACTS
MITIGATION Of Climate Change via GHG Sources and Sinks
Of Effects Autonomous Adaptations Residual or Net Impacts
Planned ADAPTATION
To the Impacts and Vulnerability
Policy Responses
(IPCC, 2001)
Components of Vulnerability
Vulnerability
The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effect of climate change, including climate variability and extremes
+
Potential Impacts PI
All impacts that may occur given a projected change in climate, without considering adaptation
Adaptive Capacity AC
The ability of a system to adjust to climate change to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with consequences
+
Exposure E
The nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic variations
+
Sensitivity S
The degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climaterelated stimuli.
Data and Methodology
Data required: 1. Projection of rainfall, land use change, sea level rise, subsidence, and distribution of population. 2. Map of rivers, prosperity Methodology: 1. Projection using Fast Fourier Transform and Least Square Non-Linear on variable parameters. 2. Overlay and analysis using GIS software (Geographical Information System)
Flow of the Work

Variable Parameters -1 Variable Parameters -2 Prediction Model Model Output Building Spatial Map Constant Parameters 2 Variable Parameters -4 Variable Parameters -5
Variable Parameters -3 Constant Parameters 1
Overlay
Vulnerability Index Building map of climate change vulnerability
Rainfall
Variable
Sea Level Rise
Variable
Subsidence Land-use Change
Variable
Variable
Rivers
Constant
Prosperity
Constant
Population Distribution
Variable
Projection of Mean Rainfall in Wet Months over Jakarta
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
mm
600
568 532 496 460 424 388 352 316 280 244 208 172 136 100
Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta (Wet Months 2010)
(Susandi et. al, 2009)
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
mm
600
568 532 496 460 424 388 352 316 280 244 208 172 136 100
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
mm
600
568 532 496 460 424 388 352 316 280 244 208 172 136 100
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
mm
600
568 532 496 460 424 388 352 316 280 244 208 172 136 100
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
mm
600
568 532 496 460 424 388 352 316 280 244 208 172 136 100
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
mm
600
568 532 496 460 424 388 352 316 280 244 208 172 136 100
Projection of Sea Level Rise at North of Jakarta
2010
Cilincing Tanjung Priok
North
Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007
2015
Cilincing Koja Tanjung Priok Pademangan
North
2020
Cilincing Koja Tanjung Priok Pademangan
North
2025
Cilincing Koja Tanjung Priok Pademangan Penjaringan
North
2030
North
Soekarno-Hatta Airport
2035
North
Soekarno-Hatta Airport
Subsidence in 1982 - 1991
(Hasanuddin, 2008)
Subsidence in 1991 - 1997
(Hasanuddin, 2008)
Population in Jakarta (1972)
AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI
Projection of Population in Jakarta (2010)
Sum up of population: 8,981,200 people Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005
Map of Rivers in Jakarta
(Hasanuddin, 2008)
Map of Prosperity in Jakarta

Index of Prosperity
100%
0.9 90%
80% 0.8 70% 0.7 60% 0.6 50% 0.5 40% 0.4
0.3 30% 0.2 20% 0.1 10% 0 0%
Result: Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2035
Climate Change Vulnerability in Southeast Asia
Flood
Drought
2010
Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta

Index of Climate Change Vulnerability
1
0.9 0.8 0.7
Percentage of Index Range: 0.0 0.2 = 50 %
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
0.2 0.4 = 20 %
0.4 0.6 = 30 % 0.6 0.8 = 0 % 0.8 1.0 = 0 %
2015

1
0.9 0.8 0.7
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
0.2 0.4 = 20 %
0.4 0.6 = 50 % 0.6 0.8 = 0 % 0.8 1.0 = 0 %
2020

1
0.9 0.8 0.7
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
0.2 0.4 = 20 %
0.4 0.6 = 40 % 0.6 0.8 = 40 % 0.8 1.0 = 0 %
2025

1
0.9 0.8 0.7
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
0.2 0.4 = 5 %
0.4 0.6 = 30 % 0.6 0.8 = 65 % 0.8 1.0 = 0 %
2030

1
0.9 0.8 0.7
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
0.2 0.4 = 0 %
0.4 0.6 = 10 % 0.6 0.8 = 70 % 0.8 1.0 = 20 %
2035

1
0.9 0.8 0.7
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
0.2 0.4 = 0 %
0.4 0.6 = 5 % 0.6 0.8 = 20 % 0.8 1.0 = 75 %
Adaptation to Climate Change
From North Area

Mangrove 30 % of the distance
2010

1
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
From North Area

2015

1
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
From North Area

2020

1
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
From North Area

Sea Wall 30 % of the distance
2025

1
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
From North Area

2030

1
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
From North Area

2035

1
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
From South Area
2010

1
0.9 0.8 0.7
Development: 1. Water Resource
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
From South Area
2015

1
0.9 0.8 0.7
Development: 1. Water Resource 2. Water Collector
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
From South Area
2020

1
0.9 0.8 0.7
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
3. Polder
From South Area
2025

1
0.9 0.8 0.7
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
3. Polder
4. Networking Pipes
From South Area
2030

1
0.9 0.8 0.7
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1
3. Polder
4. Networking Pipes 5. More Pipes & Polder
From South Area
2035

1
0.9 0.8 0.7
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1
3. Polder
Combination From North and South Area

2010

1
0.9 0.8 0.7
Development: 1. Water Resource
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0

2015

1
0.9 0.8 0.7
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0

2020

1
0.9 0.8 0.7
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
3. Polder

2025

1
0.9 0.8 0.7
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
3. Polder
4. Networking Pipes

2030

1
0.9 0.8 0.7
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1
3. Polder

2035

1
0.9 0.8 0.7
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1
3. Polder
THANK YOU!
armi@geoph.itb.ac.id
www.armisusandi.com (Click)
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Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta

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Bandung Institute of Technology

Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta

National Council on Climate Change Republic of Indonesia

Exposure Initial Impacts

MITIGATION Of Climate Change via GHG Sources and Sinks

Of Effects Autonomous Adaptations Residual or Net Impacts

Data and Methodology

Flow of the Work

Variable Parameters -3 Constant Parameters 1

Vulnerability Index Building map of climate change vulnerability

Sea Level Rise

Subsidence Land-use Change

Projection of Mean Rainfall in Wet Months over Jakarta

Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta (Wet Months 2010)

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta (Wet Months 2015)

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta (Wet Months 2020)

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta (Wet Months 2025)

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta (Wet Months 2030)

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta (Wet Months 2035)

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

Projection of Sea Level Rise at North of Jakarta

Cilincing Tanjung Priok

Cilincing Koja Tanjung Priok Pademangan

Cilincing Koja Tanjung Priok Pademangan

Cilincing Koja Tanjung Priok Pademangan Penjaringan

Cilincing Koja Tanjung Priok Pademangan Penjaringan

Cilincing Koja Tanjung Priok Pademangan Penjaringan

Subsidence in 1982 - 1991

Subsidence in 1991 - 1997

Population in Jakarta (1972)

Population in Jakarta (1983)

Population in Jakarta (1993)

Population in Jakarta (1998)

Population in Jakarta (2002)

Projection of Population in Jakarta (2010)

Sum up of population: 8,981,200 people Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005

Projection of Population in Jakarta (2015)

Sum up of population: 9,168,500 people Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005

Projection of Population in Jakarta (2020)

Sum up of population: 9,262,600 people Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005

Projection of Population in Jakarta (2025)

Sum up of population: 9,259,900 people Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005

Projection of Population in Jakarta (2030)

Sum up of population: 9,533,550 people Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005

Projection of Population in Jakarta (2035)

Sum up of population: 9,715,575 people Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005

Map of Rivers in Jakarta

Map of Prosperity in Jakarta

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

Climate Change Vulnerability in Southeast Asia

Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta

Percentage of Index Range: 0.0 0.2 = 50 %

0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0

(Susandi et. al, 2009)

Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta

Percentage of Index Range: 0.0 0.2 = 30 %

0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0

(Susandi et. al, 2009)