ESTIMASI ALIRAN KAS

PENDAHULUAN
Estimasi aliran kas (cash flow estimation) merupakan
tahap yang paling penting dan sekaligus paling sulit
dalam proses capital budgeting.

Dua hal penting dalam estimasi aliran kas:

1. Keputusan dalam capital budgeting harus didasarkan
pada aliran kas bukan laba bersih.

2. Hanya incremental cash flow yang relevan dalam
estimasi aliran kas.

TIGA KELOMPOK UTAMA ALIRAN KAS
Initial investment outlay: kelompok aliran kas yang
terjadi pada awal proyek (sebelum proyek beroperasi).
Misalnya: pembelian tanah, gedung, mesin, peraatan
dan modal kerja.

Operating cash flow: kelompok aliran kas yang terjadi
selama proyek beroperasi (umur proyek).

Terminal year cash flow: kelompok aliran kas yang
terjadi pada saat proyek dianggap berakhir (terminate).
Misalkan: nilai sisa bersih dan pengembalian modal kerja
TIGA KELOMPOK UTAMA ALIRAN KAS
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Initial inv.
outlay
Operating
cash flow
Terminal
year cash
flow
Tanah, gedung
Mesin,
perlengkapan
Modal kerja bersih
Penjualan
Harga pokok penjualan
Laba kotor
B. Administrasi
B. Depresiasi
Laba sebelum pajak
Pajak
Laba bersih
Operating CF = Laba bersih + Depresiasi

NIlai sisa bersih
Pengembalian
modal kerja bersih
Operating CF =
Laba bersih +
Depresiasi
INPUT DATA
Building cost (= Depreciable basis) 120.000.000
Equipment cost (= Depreciable basis) 80.000.000
Net Operating WC 60.000.000
First year sales (in units) 2.000.000
Growth rate in units sold 0,0%
Sales price per unit 300
Variable cost per unit 210
Fixed costs 80.000.000
Tabel 1. Klasifikasi Berdasarkan Jenis
dan Umur Proyek
CLASS LIFE TYPE OF PROPERTY
3 years Certain special manufacturing tools
5 years Automobiles, light-duty trucks, computers, and
certain special manufacturing equipment
7 years Most industrial equipment, office furniture, and
fixtures
10 years Certain longer-lived types of equipment
27,5 years Residential rental real property such as apartment
buildings
39 years All nonresidential real property, including
commercial and industrial buildings
Tabel 2. Beban Depresiasi Berdasarkan
Kelas Aset
CLASS OF INVESTMENT OWNERSHIP
YEAR
3 YEAR 5 YEAR 7 YEAR 10 YEAR
1 33% 20% 14% 10%
2 45 32 25 18
3 15 19 17 14
4 7 12 13 12
5 11 9 9
6 6 9 7
7 9 7
8 4 7
9 7
10 6
11 3
100% 100% 100% 100%
SKEDUL DEPRESIASI
Part 2. Depreciation Schedule
a
Cumulative
1 2 3 4 Depr'n
Building Depr'n Rate 1,3% 2,6% 2,6% 2,6%
Building Depr'n 1.560.000 3.120.000 3.120.000 3.120.000 10.920.000
Ending Book Val: Cost - Cum. Depr'n 118.440.000 115.320.000 112.200.000 109.080.000
Equipment Depr'n Rate 20,0% 32,0% 19,0% 12,0%
Equipment Depr'n 16.000.000 25.600.000 15.200.000 9.600.000 66.400.000
Ending Book Val: Cost - Cum. Depr'n64.000.000 38.400.000 23.200.000 13.600.000
Years
NET SALVAGE VALUE
Building Equipment Total
Estimated Market Value in 2005 75.000.000 20.000.000
Book Value in 2005
b
109.080.000 13.600.000
Expected Gain or Loss
c
-34.080.000 6.400.000
Taxes paid or tax credit -13.632.000 2.560.000
Net cash flow from salvage
d
88.632.000 17.440.000 106.072.000
NSV = MV - {(MV - BV) * T}
= 20 jt - {(20jt-13jt) *0.4}
= 20 jt - 2.560.000
= 17.440.000
INVESTMENT OUTLAY
0 1 2 3 4
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Investment Outlays at Time Zero
Building -120.000.000
Equipment -80.000.000
Increase in NOWC -60.000.000
Years
NET OPERATING CASH FLOW
0 1 2 3 4
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Units sold 2.000.000 2.000.000 2.000.000 2.000.000
Sales price 300 300 300 300
Sales revenue 600.000.000 600.000.000 600.000.000 600.000.000
Variable costs 420.000.000 420.000.000 420.000.000 420.000.000
Fixed operating costs 80.000.000 80.000.000 80.000.000 80.000.000
Depreciation (building) 1.560.000 3.120.000 3.120.000 3.120.000
Depreciation (equipment) 16.000.000 25.600.000 15.200.000 9.600.000
EBIT 82.440.000 71.280.000 81.680.000 87.280.000
Taxes (40%) 32.976.000 28.512.000 32.672.000 34.912.000
NOPAT 49.464.000 42.768.000 49.008.000 52.368.000
Add back depreciation 17.560.000 28.720.000 18.320.000 12.720.000
Operating cash flow 67.024.000 71.488.000 67.328.000 65.088.000
TERMINAL YEAR CASH FLOW
Terminal Year Cash Flows
Return of net operating working capital
e
60.000.000
Net salvage value 106.072.000
Total termination cash flows 166.072.000
Net Cash Flow (Time line of cash flows) -260.000.000 67.024.000 71.488.000 67.328.000 231.160.000
NPV = ????
IRR = ?????