***APAKAH EL NINO ?

Setiap tiga ke tujuh tahun, suatu arus laut yang panas menggantikan suatu arus laut yang kebiasaannya sejuk di luar pantai Peru, Amerika Selatan. Fenomena lautan yang diperhatikan ini dipanggil El Nino. Pemanasan lautan ini didapati berlaku di kawasan yang luas meliputi Pasifik tengah dan timur serta mempunyai kaitan dengan keadaan kejadian luar biasa cuaca yang ketara di tempat-tempat tertentu di dunia seperti banjir yang teruk dan kemarau yang berpanjangan. Di Asia Tenggara, Indonesia dan Australia, keadaan-keadaan lebih kering dari normal berlaku sementara di Pasifik tengah dan timur berhampiran khatulistiwa kebiasaannya lembap dialami. Secara lazimnya, El Nino berlaku untuk tempoh 9 ke 18 bulan. Biasanya ia mula terbentuk pada awal tahun, berada dikemuncak pada akhir tahun dan menjadi lemah pada awal tahun yang berikutnya. El Nino yang mempunyai keamatan yang sama tidak semestinya menghasilkan corak iklim yang sama.

Bagaimana El Nino dikaitkan dengan keadaan-keadaan atmosfera? Semasa El Nino, perairan yang lebih panas di Pasifik tengah dan timur membekalkan haba dan lembapan tambahan kepada atmosfera yang berada di atasnya. Ini mendorong pergerakan menaik yang kuat dan dengan demikian merendahkan tekanan permukaan di dalam kawasan pergerakan menaik itu. Udara lembap yang naik itu terpeluwap lalu membentuk kawasan ribut petir yang luas dan hujan lebat di kawasan berkenaan. Di bahagian barat Pasifik termasuk Malaysia, tekanan atmosfera meningkat, menyebabkan cuaca menjadi lebih kering. Semasa ketiadaan El Nino, tekanan permukaan di Pasifik barat biasanya rendah manakala di tengah dan timur Pasifik adalah tinggi. Di bawah keadaan ini, pada amnya Pasifik barat adalah lembap sementara Pasifik tengah dan timur adalah kering.
Corak tekanan permukaan yang berselang-seli di kawasan tropika Lautan Pasifik, yang mana keadaan lautan bertukar dari El Nino ke normal dipanggil Ayunan Selatan (SO). Hubungan di antara atmosfera dan lautan semasa kejadian El-Nino ini dikenali sebagai El Nino-Ayunan Selatan (El-Nino Southern Oscillation, ENSO).

Adakah fasa yang berlawanan dengan fasa El Nino (La Nina) ?

Pada masa-masa tertentu, walaupun tidak selalu, suhu permukaan laut di Pasifik tengah dan timur menjadi lebih rendah dari biasa. Fenomena ini di panggil La Nina - keadaan bertentangan dengan El Nino. Dalam keadaan ini, tekanan atmosfera permukaan di kawasan khatulistiwa Pasifik barat menurun, menyebabkan pembentukkan awan yang lebih dan hujan lebat. Bagaimana kita memantau El Nino dan reaksi atmosfera? Parameter-parameter asas yang digunakan untuk memantau El Nino dan reaksi atmosfera termasuklah suhu permukaan laut di kawasan khatulistiwa Lautan Pasifik, suhu di bawah permukaan lautan sehingga ke kedalaman 150m, keadaan awan serta corak hujan yang luar biasa.

Oleh kerana tekanan atmosfera dan suhu laut berkait rapat, suatu indeks atmosfera yang dipanggil Indeks Ayunan Selatan (Southern Oscillation Index, SOI) juga digunakan untuk mengukur reaksi atmosfera ini. Indeks ini dihitung dari perbezaan keadaan turun-naik tekanan udara bulanan antara Tahiti (mewakili Pasifik timur) dan Darwin (mewakili Pasifik barat). Jika terdapat nilai negatif yang nyata bagi SOI, berpanjangan selama sekurang-kurangannya 6 bulan, kita mengalami keadaan EL Nino. Lebih besar nilai negatif lebih tinggi keamatan El Nino. Sebaliknya, nilai positif tinggi menunjukkan keadaan La Nina. El Nino/La Nina yang kuat biasanya SOI yang berterusan mencapai nilai 1.5 atau lebih (negatif untuk El Nino) manakala kejadian yang sederhana indeksnya turun-naik antara 0.8 dan 1.5. El Nino yang lemah berlingkungan 0.4 dan 0.8.

Kekerapan berlakunya El Nino/La Nina

Sejak 50 tahun kebelakangan ini, El Nino telah berlaku sebanyak 12 kali. Dua kejadian El Nino yang terkuat pada abad yang lalu berlaku pada 1982-83 dan 1997-98. Jadual berikut menyenaraikan tahun-tahun di mana El Nino berlaku.

1951-1952 1969-1970 1986-1987

1953-1954 1972-1973 1991-1992

1957-1958 1977-1978 1994-1995

1965-1966 1982-1983 1997-1998

Kekerapan berlakunya La Nina adalah kurang jika dibandingkan dengan El Nino. Tahun-tahun di mana La Nina berlaku adalah disenaraikan di bawah:

1950-1951 1975-1976

1955-1956 1988-1989

1970-1971 1998-2000

1973-1974

Apakah perubahan iklim semasa El Nino?

Di kawasan tropika, aktiviti-aktiviti ribut petir berpindah dari Pasifik barat ke kawasan Pasifik tengah dan timur, menghasilkan keadaan kering yang luar biasa di Malaysia, Indonesia, Filipina dan Australia Utara semasa El Nino berlaku. Cuaca yang lebih panas dan kering juga berlaku di Afrika Tenggara, India dan Brazil Utara. Cuaca lebih lembap berlaku sepanjang pantai barat kawasan tropika Amerika Selatan dan pantai teluk di Amerika Utara seperti ditunjuk di rajah di bawah.

Apakah impak yang tipikal di Malaysia.?

Dengan kehadiran El Nino yang sederhana/kuat, taburan hujan di Sabah dan Sarawak akan berada jauh dibawah paras purata semasa monsun barat daya (Jun-Ogos) dan monsun timur laut (November-Februari), sebaliknya di Semenanjung Malaysia taburan hujan adalah dibawah paras purata hanya semasa monsun barat daya (Jun-Ogos).

Keadaan El Nino yang lemah dikenalpasti memberi impak yang minimum kepada taburan hujan di Malaysia. Tambahan pula, taburan hujan di bawah dan atas paras purata boleh juga berlaku dalam tahun-tahun yang bukan El Nino/La Nina.

El Nio/La Nia is a naturally occurring 2-7 year cycle of the ocean-atmosphere

system in the Tropical Pacific having important consequences for weather and climate around the globe.

***El Nio (Spanish for the little boy or the Christ Child) is a disruption of the
ocean atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific. El Nino, an abnormal warming of surface ocean waters in the eastern tropical Pacific, is one part of what's called the Southern Oscillation. The Southern Oscillation is the see-saw pattern of reversing surface air pressure between the eastern and western tropical Pacific; when the surface pressure is high in the eastern tropical Pacific it is low in the western tropical Pacific, and vice-versa. Because the ocean warming and pressure reversals are, for the most part, simultaneous, scientists call this phenomenon the El Nino/Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short. Normally trade winds move westward carrying warm water to Australia. Cooler water can upwell along the South American coast. This cool water carries nutrients that support large fish populations in the region. Every three to seven years, these trade winds die and the warm water that was once pushed westward is allowed to shift back towards South America. South American fisherman have given this phenomenon the name El Nio, which is Spanish for "The Christ Child," because it comes about the time of the celebration of the birth of the Christ Child-Christmas.

El Nio disrupts the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific having

important consequences for weather around the globe. Among these consequences are increased rainfall across the southern tier of the US and in Peru, which has caused destructive flooding, and drought in the West Pacific, sometimes associated with devastating brush fires in Australia.

La Nia (Spanish for the little girl) is essentially the opposite of El Nino The ocean becomes much cooler than normal. Although, La Nia is not as well understood as El Nio, it is thought to occur due to an increase in the strength
of the trade winds This increases the amount of cooler water that flows toward the west coast of South American and reduces water temperatures. Global climate La Nia impacts tend to be opposite those of El Nio impacts. In the tropics, ocean temperature variations in La Nia tend to be opposite those of El Nio. General: During winter El Nio episodes (top map) feature a strong jet stream and storm track across the southern part of the United States, and less storminess and milder-than-average conditions across the North. La Nia episodes (bottom map) feature a very wave-like jet stream flow over the United States and Canada, with colder and stormier than average conditions across the

North, and warmer and less stormy conditions across the South. Detailed El Nino: El Nio episodes are associated with four prominent changes in the wintertime atmospheric flow across the eastern North Pacific and North America. The first is an eastward extension and equatorward shift of the East Asian jet stream from the International Date Line to the southwestern United States. The second is a more west-to-east flow of jet stream winds than normal across the United States. The third is a southward shift of the storm track from the northern to the southern part of the United States. The fourth is a southward and eastward shift of the main region of cyclone formation to just west of California. This shift results in an exceptionally stormy winter and increased precipitation across California and the southern U.S, and less stormy conditions across the northern part of the country. Also, there is an enhanced flow of marine air into western North America, along with a reduced northerly flow of cold air from Canada to the United States. These conditions result in a milder than normal winter across the northern states and western Canada. Detailed La Nina: La Nia episodes are associated with three prominent changes in the wintertime atmospheric flow across the eastern North Pacific and North America. The first is an amplification of the climatological mean wave pattern and increased meridional flow across the continent and the eastern North Pacific. The second is increased blocking activity over the high latitudes of the eastern North Pacific. The third is a highly variable strength of the jet stream over the eastern North Pacific, with the mean jet position entering North America in the northwestern United States/ southwestern Canada. Accompanying these conditions, large portions of central North America experience increased storminess, increased precipitation, and an increased frequency of significant cold-air outbreaks, while the southern states experiences less storminess and precipitation. Also, there tend to be considerable month-to-month variations in temperature, rainfall and storminess across central North America during the winter and spring seasons, in response to the more variable atmospheric circulation throughout the period During La Nia episodes rainfall is enhanced across the western equatorial Pacific, Indonesia and the Philippines and is nearly absent across the eastern equatorial Pacific. Elsewhere, wetter than normal conditions tend to be observed during December-February (DJF) over northern South America and southern Africa, and during June-August (JJA) over southeastern Australia. Drier than normal conditions are generally observed along coastal Ecuador, northwestern Peru and equatorial eastern Africa during DJF, and over southern Brazil and central Argentina during JJA. La Nia episodes also contribute to large-scale temperature departures throughout the world, with most of the affected regions experiencing abnormally cool conditions. Some of the most prominent temperature departures include:

1) below-normal temperatures during December-February over southeastern Africa, Japan, southern Alaska and western/central Canada, and southeastern Brazil; 2) cooler than normal conditions during June-August across India and southeastern Asia, along the west coast of South America, across the Gulf of Guinea region, and across northern South America and portions of central America; and 3) warmer than normal conditions during December-February along the Gulf coast of the United States.

***It rose out of the tropical Pacific in late 1997, bearing more energy than a million Hiroshima bombs. By the time it had run its course eight months later, the giant El Nio of 1997-98 had deranged weather patterns around the world, killed an estimated 2,100 people, and caused at least 33 billion [U.S.] dollars in property damage. Isaias Ipanaqu Silva knew none of that. All he and the other peasant farmers in the Peruvian hamlet of Chato Chico could see was that after weeks of incessant rain the adjacent Piura River had not stopped rising. The rainfall itself was no surprise. Every three to seven years, for as long as anyone could remember, the same rainfall had arrived after a pool of hot seawater the size of Canada appeared off the west coast of the Americas. The ocean would heat up right around Christmastime, so fishermen called the phenomenon El Nio, for the Christ Child. Then that titanic storm source would pour vast amounts of precipitation onto Perus normally arid northwestern coast. But few had ever seen this much rainfive or six inches a day in some places. Finally, on February 15, 1998, the river broke its banks. The sodden ground could hold no more, and water swept into the riverside homes of Chato Chico. The swirling torrent was first knee-deep and soon chest high. Suddenly we were surrounded from all directions, Ipanaqu Silva says. It took all the little animals. Then my house just fell down completely. Hundreds of families splashed frantically through the muddy flood to save what they could. In most cases, says another villager, Rosa Jovera Charo, we just grabbed clothes for the children. Everything elsechickens and goats, pots and pans, religious icons and personal treasureswashed away. Compared with other places in Peru and around the world, the residents of Chato Chico were fairly lucky. Some were evacuated on barges, a few in helicopters, to a barren but dry refugee camp in the desert. Nearly all survived. That was not the case some 60 miles [100 kilometers] to the south, in a 3-acre [1.2hectare] pocket of one-room houses called Motse outside the city of Chiclayo. We thought that the water couldnt come here, says Flora Ramirez, but we lost practically everything. Ramirezs neighborhood was overrun in a matter of minutes. They strung ropes from one house to another to rescue people, recalls Manuel Guevara

Sanchez. Some spent three days on the roof. Those who knew how to swim brought them food. When the flood finally receded, they could begin to count the dead: ten out of a village of just 150. The runoff from the floods poured into the coastal Sechura Desert. Where there had been nothing but arid hardscrabble waste for 15 years, suddenlyamazinglylay the second largest lake in Peru: 90 miles [145 kilometers] long, 20 miles [30 kilometers] wide, and ten feet [three meters] deep, with occasional parched domes of sand and clay poking up eerily from the surface. In other areas the water simply pooled. The mosquitoes that thrived in these places caused rampant malariasome 30,000 cases in the Piura region alone, three times the average for its 1.5 million residents. Peru was where it all began, but El Nios abnormal effects on the main components of climatesunshine, temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind, humidity, precipitation, cloud formation, and ocean currentschanged weather patterns across the equatorial Pacific and in turn around the globe. Indonesia and surrounding regions suffered months of drought. Forest fires burned furiously in Sumatra, Borneo, and Malaysia, forcing drivers to use their headlights at noon. The haze traveled thousands of miles to the west into the ordinarily sparkling air of the Maldive Islands, limiting visibility to half a mile [0.8 kilometer] at times. Temperatures reached 108F [42C] in Mongolia; Kenyas rainfall was 40 inches [100 centimeters] above normal; central Europe suffered record flooding that killed 55 in Poland and 60 in the Czech Republic; and Madagascar was battered with monsoons and cyclones. In the U.S. mudslides and flash floods flattened communities from California to Mississippi, storms pounded the Gulf Coast, and tornadoes ripped Florida. By the time the debris settled and the collective misery was tallied, the devastation had in some respects exceeded even that of the El Nio of 1982-83, which killed 2,000 worldwide and caused about 13 billion dollars in damage. And thats not the end of it. It is not uncommon for an El Nio winter to be followed by a La Nia onewhere climate patterns and worldwide effects are, for the most part, the opposite of those produced by El Nio. Where there was flooding there is drought, where winter weather was abnormally mild, it turns abnormally harsh. La Nias have followed El Nios three times in the past 15 yearsafter the 1982-83 event and after those of 1986-87 and 1995. Signs of another La Nia began to show up by June 1998.
La Nia is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, compared to El Nio, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. Normal Equatorial Pacific Ocean surface temperatures (December

1993) are shown in the middle panel, including cool water, called the 'cold tongue', in the Eastern Pacific (in blue, on the right of the plot) and warm water in the Western Pacific (in red, on the left). Strong La Nia conditions during December 1998 are shown in the top panel. The Eastern Pacific is cooler than usual, and the cool water extends farther

westward than is usual (see the blue color extending further to the left). Strong El Nio conditions, in December 1997, are shown on the bottom panel, with warm water (red) extending all along the equator. El Nio and La Nia are opposite phases of the El NioSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, with La Nia sometimes referred to as the cold phase of ENSO and El Nio as the warm phase of ENSO. In the left hand panel, you see the sea surface temperature at the Equator in the Pacific Ocean (Indonesia is towards the left, South America is towards the right). Time is increasing downwards from 1986 at the top of the plot, to the present, at the bottom of the plot. The first thing to note is the blue "scallops" on the right of the plot, in the eastern Pacific. These indicate the cool water typically observed in the Eastern Pacific (called the "cold tongue"). Cold tongue temperatures vary seasonally, being warmest in the northern hemisphere springtime and coolest in the northern hemisphere fall. The red color on the left is the warm pool of water typically observed in the western Pacific Ocean. El Nio is an exaggeration of the usual seasonal cycle. During the El Nio in 1986-1987, you can see the warm water (red) penetrating eastward in the Spring of 1987. There is another El Nio in 1991-1992, and you can see the warm water penetrating towards the east in the northern hemisphere spring of 1992. The 19971998 El Nio (at the bottom) is unusually strong. El Nio and La Nia years are easier to see in the anomalies on the right hand panel. The anomalies show how much the sea surface temperature is different from the usual value for each month. Water temperatures significantly warmer than the norm are shown in red, and water temperatures cooler than the norm are shown in blue. In the right-hand plot of sea surface temperature anomalies, it is very easy to see El Nios, with water warmer than usual (red) in the eastern Pacific, during in 1986-1987, 1991-1992, 1993, 1994 and 1997-1998. It is unusual for El Nios to occur in such rapid succession, as was the case during 1990-1994. Notice the very cool water (blue), in the Eastern Pacific, in 1988-1989, and the somewhat less cool water in 1995. These are La Nia events, which occur after some (but not all) El Nios. Typically, El Nio occurs more frequently than La Nia. A list of El Nio and La Nia years is provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). El Nio and La Nia events vary in strength. For example, the La Nia in 1988 was stronger than the La Nia in 1995, and the 1997-1998 El Nio is unusually strong.

La Nia impact on the global climate

In the U.S., winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the Southeast, and cooler than normal in the Northwest. Global climate La Nia impacts tend to be opposite those of El Nio impacts. In the tropics, ocean temperature variations in La Nia tend to be opposite those of El Nio. At higher latitudes, El Nio and La Nia are among a number of factors that influence climate. However, the impacts of El Nio and La Nia at these latitudes are most clearly

seen in wintertime. In the continental US, during El Nio years, temperatures in the winter are warmer than normal in the North Central States, and cooler than normal in the Southeast and the Southwest. During a La Nia year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the Southeast and cooler than normal in the Northwest. See U.S. La Nia impacts from the National Weather Service. Also see this graphically in plots of temperature and rainfall anomalies in El Nio and La Nia years from Florida State University. An anomaly is the value observed during El Nio or La Nia subtracted from the value in a normal year.

La Nia and El Nio animations

Where are animations of La Nia and El Nio events? If you have an MPEG animation viewer, and sufficient memory, you can view an animation which shows the changes in monthly sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean. A Java animation is also available. Notice the weak La Nia peaking in December 1995, and the strong El Nio building in 1997. The animation is about 1 Megabyte in size. As you view this animation, you will see a weak La Nia peaking in December 1995. The bottom panel in the animation, labeled anomalies, shows how much the sea surface temperature for each month is different from the long term average for that month. The green color in the anomalies plot indicates that the temperature of the water is slightly cooler than is normal for that month. A strong El Nio is shown by the warm water spreading from the western Pacific to the eastern Pacific during 1997. The red color in the anomalies plot indicates that the temperature of the water is much warmer than is normal for that month.

The origin of the names, La Nia and El Nio

La Nia is sometimes referred to as El Viejo El Nio was originally recognized by fisherman off the coast of South America as the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific ocean, occurring near the beginning of the year. El Nio means The Little Boy or Christ child in Spanish. This name was used for the tendency of the phenomenon to arrive around Christmas. La Nia means The Little Girl. La Nia is sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Nio, or simply "a cold event" or "a cold episode". There has been a confusing range of uses for the terms El Nio, La Nia and ENSO by both the scientific community and the general public, which is clarified in this web page on definitions of the terms ENSO, Southern Oscillation Index, El Nio and La Nia. Also interesting is the Web page Where did the name El Nio come from? An excellent glossary of El Nio terminology has been provided by UCAR.

What is an El Nio?

El Nio is an oscillation

of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific having important consequences for weather around the globe. Among these consequences are increased rainfall across the

southern tier of the US and in Peru, which has caused destructive flooding, and drought in the West Pacific, sometimes associated with devastating brush fires in Australia.

Observations of conditions in the tropical Pacific are considered essential for the prediction of short term (a few months to 1 year) climate variations. To provide necessary data, NOAA operates a network of buoys which measure temperature, currents and winds in the equatorial band. These buoys daily transmit data which are available to researchers and forecasters around the world in real time. In normal, non-El Nio conditions (top panel of schematic diagram), the trade winds blow towards the west across the tropical Pacific. These winds pile up warm surface water in the west Pacific, so that the sea surface is about 1/2 meter higher at Indonesia than at Ecuador. The sea surface temperature is about 8 degrees C higher in the west, with cool temperatures off South America, due to an upwelling of cold water from deeper levels. This cold water is nutrient-rich, supporting high levels of primary productivity, diverse marine ecosystems, and major fisheries. Rainfall is found in rising air over the warmest water, and the east Pacific is relatively dry. The observations at 110 W (left diagram of 110 W conditions) show that the cool water (below about 17 degrees C, the black band in these plots) is within 50m of the surface. During El Nio (bottom panel of the schematic diagram), the trade winds relax in the central and western Pacific leading to a depression of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific, and an elevation of the thermocline in the west. The observations at 110W show, for example, that during 1982-1983, the 17-degree isotherm dropped to about 150m depth. This reduced the efficiency of upwelling to cool the suface and cut off the supply of nutrient rich thermocline water to the euphotic zone. The result was a rise in sea surface temperature and a drastic decline in primary productivity, the latter of which adversely affected higher trophic levels of the food chain, including commercial fisheries in this region. The weakening of easterly tradewinds during El Nio is evident in this figure as well. Rainfall follows the warm water eastward, with associated flooding in Peru and drought in Indonesia and Australia. The eastward displacement of the atmospheric heat source overlaying the warmest water results in large changes in the global atmospheric circulation, which in turn force changes in weather in regions far removed from the tropical Pacific.

Recognizing El Nio
El Nio can be seen in Sea Surface Temperature in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean El Nio can be seen in measurements of the sea surface temperature, such as those shown above, which were made from the TAO Array of moored buoys. In December 1993, the sea surface temperatures and the winds were near normal, with warm water in the Western Pacfic Ocean (in red on the top panel of December 1993 plot), and cool water, called the "cold tongue" in the Eastern Pacific Ocean (in green on the top panel of the December 1993 plot). The winds in the Western Pacific are very weak (see the arrows pointing in the direction the wind is blowing towards), and the winds in the Eastern Pacific are blowing towards the west (towards Indonesia). The bottom panel of the December 1993 plot shows anomalies, the way the sea surface temperature and wind

differs from a normal December. In this plot, the anomalies are very small (yellow/green), indicating a normal December. December 1997 was near the peak of a strong El Nio year. In December 1997, the warm water (red in the top panel of the December 1997 plot) has spread from the western Pacific Ocean towards the east (in the direction of South America), the "cold tongue" (green color in the top panel of the December 1997 plot) has weakened, and the winds in the western Pacific, usually weak, are blowing strongly towards the east, pushing the warm water eastward. The anomalies show clearly that the water in the center of Pacific Ocean is much warmer (red) than in a normal December. December 1998 was a strong La Nia (cold) event. The cold tongue (blue) is cooler than usual by about 3 Centigrade. The cold La Nia events sometimes (but not always) follow El Nio events.

Animation of El Nio
Animation of physical processes allow scientists to better understand El Nio If you have an MPEG animation viewer, and sufficient memory, you can view an animation of El Nio which shows the changes in monthly sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The animation is about 1 Megabyte in size. As you view this animation, you will see the warm water spreading from the western Pacific to the eastern Pacific during 1997. The bottom panel in the animation, labeled anomalies, shows how much the sea surface temperature for each month is different from the long term average for that month. The red color in the anomalies plot indicates that the temperature of the water is much warmer than is normal for that month. Blue color indicates that the water is much cooler than is normal for that month

Recent El Nios
Several recent El Nios can be seen in Pacific Sea Surface Temperature representations
In the left hand panel, you see the sea surface temperature at the Equator in the Pacific Ocean (Indonesia is towards the left, South America is towards the right). Time is increasing downwards from 1986 at the top of the plot, to the present, at the bottom of the plot. The first thing to note is the blue "scallops" on the right of the plot, in the eastern Pacific. These indicate the cool water typically observed in the Eastern Pacific (called the "cold tongue"). Cold tongue temperatures vary seasonally, being warmest in the northern hemisphere springtime and coolest in the northern hemisphere fall. The red color on the left is the warm pool of water typically observed in the western Pacific Ocean. El Nio is an exaggeration of the usual seasonal cycle. During the El Nio in 1986-1987, you can see the warm water (red) penetrating eastward in the Spring of 1987. There is another El Nio in 1991-1992, and you can see the warm water penetrating towards the east in the northern hemisphere spring of 1992. The El Nio in 1997-1998 is a very strong El Nio. El Nio years are easier to see in the anomalies on the right hand panel. The anomalies show how much the sea surface temperature is different from the usual value for each month. Water temperatures significantly warmer than the norm are shown in red, and water temperatures cooler than the norm areshown in blue.

In the right-hand plot of sea surface temperature anomalies, it is very easy to see El Nios, with water warmer than usual (red) in the eastern Pacific, during in 1986-1987, 1991-1992, 1993, 1994 and 1997-1998. Notice the very cool water (blue), in the Eastern Pacific, in 1988-1989. This is a strong La Nia, which occurs after some (but not all) El Nio years. 1995-1996 was a weaker La Nia year. It is unusual for El Nios to occur in such rapid succession, as has been the case during 1990-1994.

Information on the names El Nio and La Nia El Nio was originally recognized by fisherman off the coast of South America as the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific ocean, occurring near the beginning of the year. El Nio means The Little Boy or Christ child in Spanish. This name was used for the tendency of the phenomenon to arrive around Christmas. La Nia means The Little Girl. La Nia is sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Nio, or simply "a cold event" or "a cold episode". El Nio is often called "a warm event". There has been a confusing range of uses for the terms El Nio, La Nia and ENSO by both the scientific community and the general public, which is clarified in this web page on definitions of the terms ENSO, Southern Oscillation Index, El Nio and La Nia. Also interesting is the Web page: Where did the name El Nio come from?

El Nio and La Nia: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere

By now most people have heard of El Nio, if only to know the name refers to some kinds of abnormal weather. The definition of "abnormal" varies widely with geography, though. For people who live in Indonesia, Australia, or southeastern Africa, El Nio can mean severe droughts and deadly forest fires. Ecuadorians, Peruvians, or Californians, on the other hand, associate it with lashing rainstorms that can trigger devastating floods and mudslides. Severe El Nio events have resulted in a few thousand deaths worldwide, left thousands of people homeless, and caused billions of dollars in damage. Yet residents on the northeastern seaboard of the United States can credit El Nio with milder-than-normal winters (and lower heating bills) and relatively benign hurricane seasons. Originally, the name El Nio (Spanish for "the Christ child") was coined in the late 1800s by fishermen along the coast of Peru to refer to a seasonal invasion of warm southward ocean current that displaced the north-flowing cold current in which they normally fished; typically this would happen around Christmas. Today, the term no longer refers to the local seasonal current shift but to part of a phenomenon known as El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a continual but irregular cycle of shifts in ocean and atmospheric conditions that affect the globe. El Nio has come to refer to the more pronounced weather effects associated with anomalously warm sea surface temperatures interacting with the air above it in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. Its counterpart--effects associated with colder-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the region-was labeled "La Nia" (or "little girl") as recently as 1985. The shift from El Nio conditions to La Nia and back again takes about four years. Understanding this irregular oscillation and its consequences for global climate has become possible only in recent decades as scientists began to unravel the intricate relationship between ocean and atmosphere. Although meteorologists have long been forecasting daily weather based on atmospheric measurements taken around the world, they had relatively little information about conditions in many parts of the world's oceans until the advent of arrays of fixed unmanned midocean buoys in the Pacific Ocean and orbiting satellites.

But technological advances were not the only key. As the following article recounts, atmospheric and oceanographic researchers, after years of independent inquiry into the basic workings of air and sea, at last joined forces. An elegant synthesis of these two fields of research now enables climatologists and oceanographers to construct theoretical models to simulate and predict the broad climate changes associated with ENSO. For example, scientists can now warn vulnerable populations of an impending El Nio event several months in advance, providing precious time in which to take steps to mitigate its worst effects. Invaluable as this prediction of El Nio is, it is just the first step toward the much longer-term goal of providing the climatic counterpart to the daily weather prediction that we have come to take for granted.

El Nio dnd La Nia adalah fenomena fasa berlawanan putaran iklim semula jadi yang dikenali sebagai Putaran Selatan El-Nino (El Nino-Southern Oscillation - ENSO). Fenomena lautan-atmosfera ini merujuk kepada perubahan besar kepada suhu permukaan laut merintangi timur pasifik tropika. "El Nino" dalam bahasa Sepanyol bermakna "anak lelaki" manakala "La Nina" pula bermakna "anak perempuan".

***El Nio and La Nia

Kebiasaannya, lautan Pasifik sentiasa ditiupi angin timur iaitu hembusan angin timur ke barat yang meniup air laut hangat jauh dari lautan bahagian timur - sebelah Peru dan Chile - menuju ke barat lautan Pasifik, mengarah pantai Australia dan kepulauan Filipina. Permukaan air ini diganti dengan air sejuk yang terjadi dari arus Antartic Humbolt Current yang sentiasa datang dari pantai benua Amerika Selatan. Ini menyebabkan suhu permukaan laut di bahagian tengah dan timur lautan Pasifik menjadi lebih sejuk dari bahagian barat. Bagaimanapun, dalam tahun-tahun terjadinya El Nino, angin timuran berkurangan. Oleh itu, air hangat yang sepatutnya menuju ke arah barat sebaliknya berputar balik merintangi lautan Pasifik. Ini mengakibatkan memperlahankan kejadian Arus Humbolt yang sejuk, menyebabkan timur Pasifik, yang sepatutnya menjadi sejuk, menjadi hangat sebaliknya. Semasa air laut hangat memanaskan udara di atasnya, ianya menaikkan daya pengapungan lapisan bawah atmosfera, yang mana menyebabkan pengolakan awan dan hujan lebat. Berbeza dengan El Nino, La Nina merujuk kepada keadaan suhu yang lebih sejuk dari biasa merentangi Pasifik Tengah dan Timur - lebih sejuk dari keadaan biasa apabila Arus Humbolt membawa air sejuk ke kawasan Pasifik ini. Semasa La Nina, angin timuran bertambah kuat dan kejadian putaran sejuk sepanjang pantai barat benua Amerika Selatan meningkat. Sepanjang waktu ini, suhu air laut sepanjang Khatulistiwa boleh jatuh sebanyak 14 darjah Celsius. Semasa tahun-tahun La Nina, monsun meningkat di Asia Tenggara dan Australia - berlawanan dengan tahun-tahun El Nino. Sistem putaran keadaan panas (El Nino), biasa dan sejuk (La Nina) berlaku setiap tiga hingga empat tahun.