Secara historis, tingkat dan volatilitas inflasi Indonesia lebih tinggi dibanding negaranegara berkembang lain. Sementara negara-negara berkembang lain tingkat
inflasinya mencapai sekitar tiga sampai lima persen per tahun dalam periode 2005
sampai 2013, tingkat inflasi di Indonesia mencapai rata-rata 8.5 persen per tahun
dalam periode yang sama.
2013, harga premium naik 44 persen menjadi Rp 6,500 dan solar naik sebanyak 22
persen menjadi Rp 5,500 per liter. Meskipun terjadi kenaikan harga pada tahun
2013, sebagian besar harga BBM Indonesia masih disubsidi dan oleh karena itu
berbagai organisasi internasional (seperti Bank Dunia dan Dana Moneter
Internasional/IMF) serta institusi-institusi dalam negeri (seperti Kamar Dagang
Indonesia/Kadin) menyokong sepenuhnya pengurangan subsidi secara lebih lanjut.
Pada tahun 2013 dan 2014, pemerintah juga telah mengurangi subsidi listrik - baik
untuk rumah tangga (kecuali segmen masyarakat miskin) maupun industri.
Outlook inflasi Indonesia sangat dipengaruhi oleh keputusan pengurangan tidaknya
subsidi tersebut. Bank Dunia memperkirakan kenaikan harga BBM sebanyak Rp
2,000 dapat menambahkan sekitar tiga poin persentase pada tingkat inflasi umum
dan dapat menambahkan sekitar satu poin persentase pada inflasi inti. Kenaikan
harga listrik diperkirakan akan menyebabkan efek yang lebih kecil (< 1 persen)
terhadap laju inflasi. Sebagai gambaran, Bank Indonesia menargetkan tingkat inflasi
sebanyak 4.5 persen pada tahun 2013. Namun setelah kenaikan harga BBM dan
listrik, inasi naik menjadi 8.37 persen di akhir tahun (yoy).
Inflation of Indonesia 2008-2015:
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Inflation
(annual percent change)
9.8
4.8
5.1
5.4
4.3
8.4
5.0
4.5
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.0
These households spend more than half of their total expenditure on food items.
Higher food prices therefore cause serious poverty basket ina on which may
lead to increases in the level of poverty. Failing harvests in combination with a slow
reaction of the government to substitute food products with food imports are
causes for inflation peaks.
Traditional Peaks of Inflation in Indonesia
Discarding administered price adjustments, there are two traditional annual peaks
of inflation in Indonesia. The December-January period always brings higher prices
due to Christmas and New Year celebrations, while the traditional floods in January
(amid a peak of the rainy season) results in disrupted distribution channels in several
regions and cities, thus causing higher logistics costs. The second peak comes in the
July-August period. Inflationary pressures in these two months emerge as a result of
the holiday period, the holy Muslim fasting month (Ramadan), Idul Fitri celebrations
and the arrival of the new school year. A marked increase is detectable in spending
on food and other consumables, accompanied by retailers adjusting prices upwards.
Monetary Policy and the BI Rate
With annual GDP growth close to six percent, the economy of Indonesia has been
rapidly expanding in recent years, characterized by surging domestic demand
(domestic consumption accounts for around two-thirds of the country's economic
growth), robust private sector credit growth and increased business access to credit.
Moreover, public sector wages have increased due to administrative reforms and
private sector wage growth has accelerated (Indonesia's regional minimum wages
were raised significantly in 2012 and 2013). As robust economic growth brings along
inflationary pressures, recent monetary policies (in 2013 and 2014) were aimed at
safeguarding financial stability, particularly after inflation surged due to the 2013
fuel prices hike and amid the looming end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative
easing program (which led to large capital outflows from emerging markets,
including Indonesia), at the expense of further economic growth.
Bank Indonesia (BI), Indonesia's central bank, has as main objective to ensure rupiah
stability. It uses a wide range of instruments to stem mounting inflationary
pressures in the country. Its bank rate policy is adjusted when inflation targets are
not met. Between February 2012 and June 2013, the country's benchmark interest
rate (BI rate) had been set at a historic low of 5.75 percent. After this period,
inflationary pressures increased due to higher fuel prices and global uncertainty
about the US quantitative easing program. Subsequent capital outflows resulted in
sharp rupiah depreciation. Therefore, Bank Indonesia adjusted its BI rate upwards.
Another measure to tighten monetary policy was the raising of the reserve
requirements on both local and foreign currency deposits at Indonesian banks.
Lastly, BI curtailed foreign investors' demand for Central Bank bills (SBIs) by
extending the required holding period from one to six months, stretching the
maturity of SBI issues to nine months and by introducing longer maturity non3
tradable term deposits (which are available to banks only). These measures aimed at
mitigating the flow of 'hot money' into Indonesia.
Benchmark Interest Rate of Indonesia 2008-2013:
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
9.25
6.50
6.50
6.00
5.75
7.50
2010
2011
2012
2013
USA
-0.4
1.6
3.0
1.7
1.5
China
-0.7
3.3
5.4
2.6
2.6
Indonesia
4.8
5.1
5.4
4.3
8.4
indicates prognosis
Source: World Bank