Template Perhitungan PTLP Dan APP

diketahui bahwa data yang dimiliki sebagai berikut:
lokasi pasar tujuan Lokasi pesaing

1 2 3 1
H F T B
Harga bangunan / m^2

Kota Biaya Produksi /unit Biaya distribusi Harga tanah/m^2
Terbuka
Jombong 1 0.002 0.6 1.5
Bondowoso 1 0.002 0.4 1
Faktor objektif
Biaya tahunan (juta)

Lokasi Total Ci
Karyawan Distribusi Lain-lain
Jombang 18.9 0.504 4.725 24.129
Bondowoso 13.923 0.504 3.15 17.577
OF= [ Ci x ∑(1/Ci) ]^-1

OF (Jombang) = 0,421477735
OF (Bondowoso) = 0,578587715
Total = 1
Faktor subjektif Perbandingan

Pendidikan (1) 1:2=1&2 jadi 3 > 1 & 2
Perumahan (2) 1:3=3
Sikap masyarakat (3) 2:3=3
Pairwise Comparison
Faktor subjektif Jumlah preferensi
1 2 3
Pendidikan (1) 1 1
Perumahan (2) 1 1
Sikap Masyarakat 1 1
(3) 2
Total =
mencari ranking dengan prosedur yang sama seperti perhitungan diatas namun secara terpisah dengan masing-masing faktor s
Pendidikan (Faktor 1)
Pairwise Comparison response
Site lokasi Site ranking (Ri)
1 2 3
Jombang 1 1 0.5
Bondowoso 1 1 0.5
Total=
Perumahan (Faktor 2)
1 2 3
Jombang 1 1 0.5
Bondowoso 1 1 0.5
Total=
Sikap masyarakt (Faktor 3)

1 2 3
Jombang 1 1 0.5
Bondowoso 1 1 0.5
Total=
Dari perbandingan diatas, bisa disimpulkan evaluasi dari faktor-faktor subyektif sebagai berikut:
Rating (Ri)
Relevant subjektif Relativeimportance index (Wi)
Faktor Jombang Bondowoso
1 0.5 0.5 0.25

2 0.5 0.5 0.25
3 0.5 0.5 0.5
Total= 1
SF = Wi x Ri + Wi2 x Ri2 +...+ Win x Rin
SF (Jombang) = 0.5
SF (Bondowoso) = 0.5
Total = 1
Location-preference Measurement
Faktor objektif (OF) ditetapkan k (dimana 0 < k < 1 )
Faktor subjektif (SF) akan memiliki bobot = 1 - k
Perbandingan antara faktor objektif dan subjektif ditentukan dengan nilai 4 : 1, kenapa nilainya 4 :1, karena
faktor objektif dianggap lebih penting dari faktor subjektif
Berikut penentuan bobot

4 (OF) : 1 (SF) Total point = 4+1 = 5
bobot (k)OF = 4/5 = 0.8
bobot (k)SF atau (1-k) = 1/5 = 0.2
LPM = k x OF + (1-k) x SF
SF (Jombang) = 0.437182188
SF (Bondowoso) = 0.562870172
Total = 1.00005236
=1
Penentuan lokasi pabrik ditentukan berdasarkan nilai LPM terbesar
Jadi lokasi pabrik yang dipilih adalah Bondowoso karena memiliki nilai terbesar yaitu 0,56287017
kasi pesaing Bakal Lokasi pabrik
2 3 1 2
W P E P
Harga bangunan / m^2

Upah tenaga kerja/hari
Tertutup
2.625 0.075
1.75 0.05525
Total Ci 1/Ci
24.129 0.04144
17.577 0.05689
Total 0.09833
Jumlah preferensi Relative important index
1 0.25
1 0.25
2 0.5
4
pisah dengan masing-masing faktor subjektif
Site ranking (Ri)

0.5
0.5
1
Site ranking (Ri)
0.5
0.5
1
Site ranking (Ri)
0.5
0.5
1
ai 4 : 1, kenapa nilainya 4 :1, karena

erbesar yaitu 0,56287017
Keterangan
keterangan : 21 hari kerja x 12 bulan

252
Total 252 hari kerja / tahun
perhitungan dengan rumus 1/Ci

4.144391E-02
5.689253E-02
perhitungan dengan rumus OF

OF (A) 0.421478
OF (B) 0.578588
Total 1.000065
Total point = 4
bobot (k)OF = 4/5 = 0.8
bobot (k)SF atau (1-k) = 1/5= 0.2
JARAK PESAING KE TUJUAN
H F T
No Sumber Tujuan
Nganjuk Bojonegoro Bangkalan
1 B Gresik 137 90 46
2 W Sumenep 294 283 147
3 M Pasuruan 131 168 86
DATA PERMINTAAN LOKASI TUJUA
Tujuan 1 Bondowoso Tujuan 1
Jumlah Permintaan (dari Jumlah Permintaan Akhir /

Periode Data bank + (NPM Periode
Bank Data) Tertinggi*100)
Jan-13 116,474 129,674 1
Feb-13 130,209 143,409 2
Mar-13 140,464 153,664 3
Apr-13 155,693 168,893 4
May-13 175,671 188,871 5
Jun-13 189,563 202,763 6
Jul-13 204,566 217,766 7
Aug-13 224,821 238,021 8
Sep-13 253,785 266,985 9
Oct-13 286,515 299,715 10
Nov-13 309,275 322,475 11
Dec-13 349,218 362,418 12
Jan-14 387,410 400,610 13
Feb-14 422,095 435,295 14
Mar-14 459,902 473,102 15
Apr-14 496,532 509,732 16
May-14 550,928 564,128 17
Jun-14 594,841 608,041 18
Jul-14 654,123 667,323 19
Aug-14 732,375 745,575 20
Sep-14 805,411 818,611 21
Oct-14 869,682 882,882 22
Nov-14 947,772 960,972 23
Dec-14 1,042,347 1,055,547 24
DATA PERMINTAAN LOKASI TUJUAN
Tujuan 1 Bojonegoro Tujuan 1

Jumlah Permintaan Akhir /
Jumlah Permintaan Jumlah Permintaan (dari
Data bank + (NPM Periode
(dari Bank Data) Bank Data)
Tertinggi*100)
Bangkalan
Jumlah Permintaan Akhir /
Data bank + (NPM
Tertinggi*100)
DATA PRODUKSI LOKASI PESAING
Pesaing 1 Bondowoso Pesaing 1
Jumlah Produksi Jumlah Produksi Akhir / Data Jumlah Produksi

Periode Periode
(dari Bank Data) bank + (NPM 3 Anggota*10) (dari Bank Data)
Jan-13 205,204 206,524 1

Feb-13 215,209 216,529 2
Mar-13 232,017 233,337 3
Apr-13 241,093 242,413 4
May-13 255,252 256,572 5
Jun-13 262,756 264,076 6
Jul-13 270,485 271,805 7
Aug-13 284,407 285,727 8
Sep-13 306,098 307,418 9
Oct-13 321,147 322,467 10
Nov-13 336,949 338,269 11
Dec-13 356,859 358,179 12
Jan-14 374,446 375,766 13
Feb-14 400,300 401,620 14
Mar-14 431,915 433,235 15
Apr-14 461,791 463,111 16
May-14 480,058 481,378 17
Jun-14 518,054 519,374 18
Jul-14 533,442 534,762 19
Aug-14 565,142 566,462 20
Sep-14 604,344 605,664 21
Oct-14 622,321 623,641 22
Nov-14 659,354 660,674 23
Dec-14 698,609 699,929 24
DUKSI LOKASI PESAING
Sumenep Pesaing 1 Pasuruan
Jumlah Produksi Akhir / Data Jumlah Produksi Jumlah Produksi Akhir / Data
Periode
bank + (NPM 3 Anggota*10) (dari Bank Data) bank + (NPM 3 Anggota*10)
Metode
Periode Permintaan
Tahun
x y
1 129,674
2 143,409
3 153,664
4 168,893
5 188,871
6 202,763
2013
7 217,766
8 238,021
9 266,985
10 299,715
11 322,475
12 362,418
13 400,610
14 435,295
15 473,102
16 509,732
17 564,128
18 608,041
2018
19 667,323
20 745,575
21 818,611
22 882,882
23 960,972
24 1,055,547
Total 300 10,816,472
DIKETAHUI
b a
38,228.215 -27166.351
Forecast Data Permintaan

Periode Forecast
x y'
25 928,539
26 966,767
27 1,004,995
28 1,043,224
29 1,081,452
30 1,119,680
31 1,157,908
32 1,196,137
33 1,234,365
34 1,272,593
35 1,310,821
36 1,349,049
37 1,387,278
38 1,425,506
39 1,463,734
40 1,501,962
41 1,540,190
42 1,578,419
43 1,616,647
44 1,654,875
45 1,693,103
46 1,731,332
47 1,769,560
48 1,807,788
49 1,846,016
50 1,884,244
51 1,922,473
52 1,960,701
53 1,998,929
54 2,037,157
55 2,075,385
56 2,113,614
57 2,151,842
58 2,190,070
59 2,228,298
60 2,266,527
61 2,304,755
62 2,342,983
63 2,381,211
64 2,419,439
65 2,457,668
66 2,495,896
67 2,534,124
68 2,572,352
69 2,610,580
70 2,648,809
71 2,687,037
72 2,725,265
73 2,763,493
74 2,801,722
75 2,839,950
76 2,878,178
77 2,916,406
78 2,954,634
79 2,992,863
80 3,031,091
81 3,069,319
82 3,107,547
83 3,145,775
84 3,184,004
Smooting Bown
Jumlah Permintaan (dari

Periode
Bank Data)
Jan-13 116,474
Feb-13 130,209
Mar-13 140,464
Apr-13 155,693
May-13 175,671
Jun-13 189,563
Jul-13 204,566
Aug-13 224,821
Sep-13 253,785
Oct-13 286,515
Nov-13 309,275
Dec-13 349,218
Jan-14 387,410
Feb-14 422,095
Mar-14 459,902
Apr-14 496,532
May-14 550,928
Jun-14 594,841
Jul-14 654,123
Aug-14 732,375
Sep-14 805,411
Oct-14 869,682
Nov-14 947,772
Dec-14 1,042,347
MAPE
Smooting Holt
Jumlah Permintaan (dari

Periode
Bank Data)
Jan-13 116,474
Feb-13 130,209
Mar-13 140,464
Apr-13 155,693
May-13 175,671
Jun-13 189,563
Jul-13 204,566
Aug-13 224,821
Sep-13 253,785
Oct-13 286,515
Nov-13 309,275
Dec-13 349,218
Jan-14 387,410
Feb-14 422,095
Mar-14 459,902
Apr-14 496,532
May-14 550,928
Jun-14 594,841
Jul-14 654,123
Aug-14 732,375
Sep-14 805,411
Oct-14 869,682
Nov-14 947,772
Dec-14 1,042,347
MAPE
3.1 Peramalan Data Permintaan dengan Menggunakan Metode Brown, dengan α = 0.5 β = 0.5
Area Bondowoso
Periode Data Permintaan
1 129,674
2 143,409
3 153,664
4 168,893
5 188,871
6 202,763
7 217,766
8 238,021
9 266,985
10 299,715
11 322,475
12 362,418
13 400,610
14 435,295
15 473,102
16 509,732
17 564,128
18 608,041
19 667,323
20 745,575
21 818,611
22 882,882
23 960,972
24 1,055,547
Total 10,816,472

Periode Forecast
x y'
1 1,281,563
2 1,343,461
3 1,405,360
4 1,467,259
5 1,529,158
6 1,591,057
7 1,652,955
8 1,714,854
9 1,776,753
10 1,838,652
11 1,900,551
12 1,962,450
13 2,024,348
14 2,086,247
15 2,148,146
16 2,210,045
17 2,271,944
18 2,333,842
19 2,395,741
20 2,457,640
21 2,519,539
22 2,581,438
23 2,643,337
24 2,705,235
25 2,767,134
26 2,829,033
27 2,890,932
28 2,952,831
29 3,014,729
30 3,076,628
31 3,138,527
32 3,200,426
33 3,262,325
34 3,324,224
35 3,386,122
36 3,448,021
37 3,509,920
38 3,571,819
39 3,633,718
40 3,695,616
41 3,757,515
42 3,819,414
43 3,881,313
44 3,943,212
45 4,005,110
46 4,067,009
47 4,128,908
48 4,190,807
49 4,252,706
50 4,314,605
51 4,376,503
52 4,438,402
53 4,500,301
54 4,562,200
55 4,624,099
56 4,685,997
57 4,747,896
58 4,809,795
59 4,871,694
60 4,933,593
Ft+m= St + bt.m
St = α.X t + (1 − α)(St −1 + b t −1 )
bt = β(St − St −1 ) + (1 − β)b t −1
3.4 Peramalan Data Permintaan dengan Menggunakan Metode Holt, dengan
Area Bondowoso
Periode Permintaan
1 129,674.00
2 143,409.00
3 153,664.00
4 168,893.00
5 188,871.00
6 202,763.00
7 217,766.00
8 238,021.00
9 266,985.00
10 299,715.00
11 322,475.00
12 362,418.00
13 400,610.00
14 435,295.00
15 473,102.00
16 509,732.00
17 564,128.00
18 608,041.00
19 667,323.00
20 745,575.00
21 818,611.00
22 882,882.00
23 960,972.00
24 1,055,547.00
Total 10,816,472.00

Periode Forecast
x y'
1 1,123,002
2 1,204,090
3 1,285,178
4 1,366,266
5 1,447,354
6 1,528,442
7 1,609,530
8 1,690,618
9 1,771,706
10 1,852,794
11 1,933,882
12 2,014,970
13 2,096,058
14 2,177,146
15 2,258,234
16 2,339,322
17 2,420,410
18 2,501,498
19 2,582,586
20 2,663,674
21 2,744,762
22 2,825,850
23 2,906,938
24 2,988,026
25 3,069,114
26 3,150,202
27 3,231,290
28 3,312,378
29 3,393,466
30 3,474,554
31 3,555,642
32 3,636,730
33 3,717,818
34 3,798,906
35 3,879,993
36 3,961,081
37 4,042,169
38 4,123,257
39 4,204,345
40 4,285,433
41 4,366,521
42 4,447,609
43 4,528,697
44 4,609,785
45 4,690,873
46 4,771,961
47 4,853,049
48 4,934,137
49 5,015,225
50 5,096,313
51 5,177,401
52 5,258,489
53 5,339,577
54 5,420,665
55 5,501,753
56 5,582,841
57 5,663,929
58 5,745,017
59 5,826,105
60 5,907,193
Data Permintaan
Metode Regresi Linier
xy x2
129674 1
286818 4
460992 9
675572 16
944355 25
1216578 36
1524362 49
1904168 64
2402865 81
2997150 100
3547225 121
4349016 144
5207930 169
6094130 196
7096530 225
8155712 256
9590176 289
10944738 324
12679137 361
14911500 400
17190831 441
19423404 484
22102356 529
25333128 576
179,168,347 4,900
RUMUS
y'=a+bx
Bondowoso
Total Permintaan Tahun

13,665,530.393
2015
19,170,393.322
2016
24,675,256.250
2017
30,180,119.179
2018
2018
35,684,982.108
2019
Bondowoso
Metode Brown by SPSS

Jumlah Permintaan Akhir / Data bank + (NPM Tertinggi*100)
Periode Forcast
129,674 Jan-15
143,409 Feb-15
153,664 Mar-15
168,893 Apr-15
188,871 May-15
202,763 Jun-15
217,766 Jul-15
238,021 Aug-15
266,985 Sep-15
299,715 Oct-15
322,475 Nov-15
362,418 Dec-15
400,610 Jan-16
435,295 Feb-16
473,102 Mar-16
509,732 Apr-16
564,128 May-16
608,041 Jun-16
667,323 Jul-16
745,575 Aug-16
818,611 Sep-16
882,882 Oct-16
960,972 Nov-16
1,055,547 Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
MAPE
Bondowoso
Metode Holt by SPSS
Jumlah Permintaan Akhir / Data bank + (NPM Tertinggi*100)
Periode Forcast
129,674 Jan-15
143,409 Feb-15
153,664 Mar-15
168,893 Apr-15
188,871 May-15
202,763 Jun-15
217,766 Jul-15
238,021 Aug-15
266,985 Sep-15
299,715 Oct-15
322,475 Nov-15
362,418 Dec-15
400,610 Jan-16
435,295 Feb-16
473,102 Mar-16
509,732 Apr-16
564,128 May-16
608,041 Jun-16
667,323 Jul-16
745,575 Aug-16
818,611 Sep-16
882,882 Oct-16
960,972 Nov-16
1,055,547 Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
MAPE
n dengan Menggunakan Metode Brown, dengan α = 0.5 β = 0.5
SES DES
(S't) (S''t)
129,674 129,674
136,542 131,048
145,103 133,859
156,998 138,486
172,934 145,376
187,849 153,871
202,807 163,658
220,414 175,009
243,700 188,747
271,707 205,339
297,091 223,690
329,755 244,903
365,182 268,959
400,239 295,215
436,670 323,506
473,201 353,445
518,665 386,489
563,353 421,862
615,338 460,557
680,456 504,537
749,534 553,536
816,208 606,070
888,590 662,574
972,068 724,473
9,974,078 7,594,881
Bondowoso
19,464,072.519
2015
28,377,502.158
2016
37,290,931.797
2017
46,204,361.435
2018
55,117,791.074
2019
α
taan dengan Menggunakan Metode Holt, dengan α = 0.5 dan β = 0.5
Data Trend
Pemulusan (st) Pemulusan (bt)
129,674.00 13,735.00
143409.00 13735.00
155404.00 12865.00
168581.00 13021.00
185236.50 14838.25
201418.88 15510.31
217347.59 15719.52
235544.05 16957.99
259743.52 20578.73
290018.62 25426.92
318960.27 27184.28
354281.28 31252.64
393071.96 35021.66
431694.31 36822.01
470809.16 37968.43
509254.79 38207.03
555794.91 42373.57
603104.74 44841.70
657634.72 49685.84
726447.78 59249.45
802154.12 67477.89
876257.00 70790.39
954009.70 74271.54
1041914.12 81087.98
10,681,766.04 858,622.14
Bondowoso
18,827,832.012
2015
2015
30,504,501.392
2016
42,181,170.772
2017
53,857,840.152
2018
65,534,509.531
2019
-1
Bondowoso
nier
y' y-y' (y-y')2 |(y-y')/y*100%|
11061.863 118,612.14 14,068,838,964.63 0.9146948245
49290.078 94,118.92 8,858,371,456.62 0.6562971772
87518.293 66,145.71 4,375,254,567.95 0.430456757
125746.508 43,146.49 1,861,619,799.42 0.2554664333
163974.722 24,896.28 619,824,635.16 0.131816306
202202.937 560.06 313,670.29 -0.0027621546
240431.152 -22,665.15 513,709,116.50 0.1040803065
278659.367 -40,638.37 1,651,476,857.11 0.1707343756
316887.582 -49,902.58 2,490,267,649.77 0.1869115553
355115.796 -55,400.80 3,069,248,239.18 0.1848449239
393344.011 -70,869.01 5,022,416,742.71 0.2197659079
431572.226 -69,154.23 4,782,306,965.64 0.1908134418
469800.441 -69,190.44 4,787,317,087.67 0.1727127149
508028.656 -72,733.66 5,290,184,643.45 0.1670904915
546256.870 -73,154.87 5,351,635,047.13 0.1546281146
584485.085 -74,753.09 5,588,023,727.85 0.1466517407
622713.300 -58,585.30 3,432,237,359.11 0.1038510761
660941.515 -52,900.51 2,798,464,448.93 0.0870015585
699169.729 -31,846.73 1,014,214,174.77 0.0477231107
737397.944 8,177.06 66,864,241.51 0.010967449
775626.159 42,984.84 1,847,696,557.04 0.0525094838
813854.374 69,027.63 4,764,813,183.21 0.0781844303
852082.589 108,889.41 11,856,903,925.77 0.1133117421
890310.803 165,236.20 27,303,000,688.87 0.1565408235
10,816,472 0 121,415,003,750 4.73
SSE MSE MAPE

74,289.056 5,058,958,490 0.197
0
Total Permintaan
Data Forcast
1,401,617 23,784,619.000 171160
1,507,150 173848
1,612,684 193845
1,718,218 208368
1,823,751 224524
1,929,285 242582
2,034,818 265690
2,140,352 301378
2,245,886 319425
2,351,419 353897
2,456,953 386877
2,562,486 433795
2,668,020 38,981,456.000 466929
2,773,554 530847
2,879,087 585722
2,984,621 630352
3,090,154 673334
3,195,688 752003
3,301,221 814929
3,406,755 895971
3,512,289 958970
3,617,822 1085654
3,723,356 1159093
3,828,889 1293242
3,934,423 54,178,292.000 1401617
4,039,957 1507150
4,145,490 1612684
4,251,024 1718218
4,356,557 1823751
4,462,091 1929285
4,567,624 2034818
4,673,158 2140352
4,778,692 2245886
4,884,225 2351419
4,989,759 2456953
5,095,292 2562486
5,200,826 69,375,129.000 2668020
5,306,360 2773554
5,411,893 2879087
5,517,427 2984621
5,622,960 3090154
5,728,494 3195688
5,834,028 3301221
5,939,561 3406755
6,045,095 3512289
6,150,628 3617822
6,256,162 3723356
6,361,695 3828889
6,467,229 84,571,965.000 3934423
6,572,763 4039957
6,678,296 4145490
6,783,830 4251024
6,889,363 4356557
6,994,897 4462091
7,100,431 4567624
7,205,964 4673158
7,311,498 4778692
7,417,031 4884225
7,522,565 4989759
7,628,098 5095292
1.758 5200826
5306360
5411893
5517427
Metode Holt by SPSS 5622960
Total Permintaan
Data Forcast 5728494
1,405,521 24,192,835.000 5834028
1,516,529 5939561
1,627,538 6045095
1,738,547 6150628
1,849,556 6256162
1,960,565 6361695
2,071,574 6467229
2,182,583 6572763
2,293,592 6678296
2,404,601 6783830
2,515,610 6889363
2,626,619 6994897
2,737,628 40,178,123.000 7100431
2,848,637 7205964
2,959,646 7311498
3,070,655 7417031
3,181,664 7522565
3,292,672 7628098
3,403,681
3,514,690
3,625,699
3,736,708
3,847,717
3,958,726
4,069,735 56,163,411.000
4,180,744
4,291,753
4,402,762
4,513,771
4,624,780
4,735,789
4,846,798
4,957,807
5,068,815
5,179,824
5,290,833
5,401,842 72,148,698.000
5,512,851
5,623,860
5,734,869
5,845,878
5,956,887
6,067,896
6,178,905
6,289,914
6,400,923
6,511,932
6,622,941
6,733,950 88,133,983.000
6,844,958
6,955,967
7,066,976
7,177,985
7,288,994
7,400,003
7,511,012
7,622,021
7,733,030
7,844,039
7,955,048
1.422
Nilai a Nilai b Nilai Ramalan Error
- - - -
142,036 1,374 143,409 0
156,347 2,811 159,158 -5,494
175,509 4,628 180,137 -11,244
200,493 6,890 207,382 -18,511
221,827 8,495 230,321 -27,558
241,957 9,787 251,744 -33,978
265,819 11,351 277,170 -39,149
298,652 13,738 312,390 -45,405
338,075 16,592 354,667 -54,952
370,493 18,350 388,843 -66,368
414,607 21,213 435,820 -73,402
461,406 24,056 485,462 -84,852
505,263 26,256 531,519 -96,224
549,835 28,291 578,126 -105,024
592,958 29,939 622,897 -113,165
650,840 33,044 683,884 -119,756
704,844 35,373 740,217 -132,176
770,119 38,695 808,814 -141,491
856,376 43,980 900,356 -154,781
945,531 48,999 994,531 -175,920
1,026,345 52,534 1,078,880 -195,998
1,114,605 56,504 1,171,109 -210,137
1,219,664 61,899 1,281,563 -226,016
12,223,600 594,799 12,818,400 -2,131,602
MSE
SSE
0.5 β 0.5
Ramalan Square
eror
bila m=1 Error
157144.00 3480.00 12,110,400.00

168,269.00 -624.00 389,376.00
181,602.00 -7269.00 52,838,361.00
200,074.75 -2688.25 7,226,688.06
216,929.19 -836.81 700,255.16
233,067.11 -4953.89 24,541,032.32
252,502.04 -14482.96 209,756,044.37
280,322.25 -19392.75 376,078,790.44
315,445.54 -7029.46 49,413,310.77
346,144.55 -16273.45 264,825,167.35
385,533.92 -15076.08 227,288,251.71
428,093.62 -7201.38 51,859,841.50
468,516.32 -4585.68 21,028,471.46
508,777.59 -954.41 910,903.30
547,461.82 -16666.18 277,761,392.83
598,168.49 -9872.51 97,466,505.38
647,946.45 -19376.55 375,450,814.55
707,320.56 -38254.44 1,463,401,813.37
785,697.23 -32913.77 1,083,316,084.89
869,632.01 -13249.99 175,562,278.78
947,047.39 -13924.61 193,894,648.41
1,028,281.24 -27265.76 743,421,750.25
10,273,977.07 -269,411.93 5,709,242,181.94
MSE 237,885,090.91
SSE 16,109
Permintaan Pasar
Perkiraan Permintaan (U
Tahun
Bondowoso
2015 13,665,530
2016 19,170,393
2017 24,675,256
2018 30,180,119
2019 35,684,982
Data Permintaan
Metode Reg
Periode Permintaan
Tahun
x y xy
1 0 0
2 0 0
3 0 0
4 0 0
5 0 0
6 0 0
2013
7 0 0
8 0 0
9 0 0
10 0 0
11 0 0
12 0 0
13 0 0
14 0 0
15 0 0
16 0 0
17 0 0
18 0 0
2018
19 0 0
20 0 0
21 0 0
22 0 0
23 0 0
24 0 0
Total 300 0 0
DIKETAHUI RUMUS
b a
y'=a+bx
0.000 0.000
Forecast Data Permintaan Bojonegoro

Periode Forecast
Total Permintaan
x y'
25 0 0.000
26 0
27 0
28 0
29 0
30 0
31 0
32 0
33 0
34 0
35 0
36 0
37 0 0.000
38 0
39 0
40 0
41 0
42 0
43 0
44 0
45 0
46 0
47 0
48 0
49 0 0.000
50 0
51 0
52 0
53 0
54 0
55 0
56 0
57 0
58 0
59 0
60 0
61 0 0.000
62 0
63 0
64 0
65 0
66 0
67 0
68 0
69 0
70 0
71 0
72 0
73 0 0.000
74 0
75 0
76 0
77 0
78 0
79 0
80 0
81 0
82 0
83 0
84 0
Smooting Bown Bojonegoro
Jumlah Permintaan
Jumlah Permintaan
Periode Akhir / Data bank +
(dari Bank Data)
(NPM Tertinggi*100)
163526 Jan-13 0 0
177819 Feb-13 0 0
195249 Mar-13 0 0
209499 Apr-13 0 0
224594 May-13 0 0
242212 Jun-13 0 0
265116 Jul-13 0 0
300280 Aug-13 0 0
322539 Sep-13 0 0
353468 Oct-13 0 0
386941 Nov-13 0 0
432833 Dec-13 0 0
469540 Jan-14 0 0
528769 Feb-14 0 0
587380 Mar-14 0 0
633939 Apr-14 0 0
674708 May-14 0 0
747103 Jun-14 0 0
816420 Jul-14 0 0
896568 Aug-14 0 0
962883 Sep-14 0 0
1079796 Oct-14 0 0
1166176 Nov-14 0 0
1290553 Dec-14 0 0
1405521
1516529
1627538
1738547
1849556
1960565
2071574
2182583
2293592
2404601
2515610
2626619
2737628
2848637
2959646
3070655
3181664
3292672
3403681
3514690
3625699
3736708
3847717
3958726
4069735
4180744
4291753
4402762
4513771
4624780
4735789
4846798
4957807
5068815
5179824
5290833
5401842 MAPE
5512851
5623860
5734869 Smooting Holt Bojonegoro
5845878 Jumlah Permintaan

Jumlah Permintaan
(dari Bank Data)
(NPM Tertinggi*100)
5956887
6067896 Jan-13 0 0
6178905 Feb-13 0 0
6289914 Mar-13 0 0
6400923 Apr-13 0 0
6511932 May-13 0 0
6622941 Jun-13 0 0
6733950 Jul-13 0 0
6844958 Aug-13 0 0
6955967 Sep-13 0 0
7066976 Oct-13 0 0
7177985 Nov-13 0 0
7288994 Dec-13 0 0
7400003 Jan-14 0 0
7511012 Feb-14 0 0
7622021 Mar-14 0 0
7733030 Apr-14 0 0
7844039 May-14 0 0
7955048 Jun-14 0 0
Jul-14 0 0
Aug-14 0 0
Sep-14 0 0
Oct-14 0 0
Nov-14 0 0
Dec-14 0 0
MAPE
3.1 Peramalan Data Permintaan dengan Menggunakan Metode Brown, dengan

Area Bojonegoro
Square SES
Periode Data Permintaan
Error (S't)
- 1 0 0
0 2 0 0
30,184,036 3 0 0
126,432,034 4 0 0
342,674,151 5 0 0
759,466,403 6 0 0
1,154,515,316 7 0 0
1,532,678,654 8 0 0
2,061,614,776 9 0 0
3,019,759,093 10 0 0
4,404,715,652 11 0 0
5,387,781,305 12 0 0
7,199,852,914 13 0 0
9,259,005,855 14 0 0
11,030,054,808 15 0 0
12,806,225,976 16 0 0
14,341,583,073 17 0 0
17,470,445,986 18 0 0
20,019,765,216 19 0 0
23,957,176,402 20 0 0
30,947,737,194 21 0 0
38,415,048,493 22 0 0
44,157,713,693 23 0 0
51,083,028,907 24 0 0
299,507,459,939 Total 0 0
12,479,477,497
116,679

Periode Forecast
Total Permintaan
x y'
1 0 0.000
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
10 0
11 0
12 0
13 0 0.000
14 0
15 0
16 0
17 0
18 0
19 0
20 0
21 0
22 0
23 0
24 0
25 0 0.000
26 0
27 0
28 0
29 0
30 0
31 0
32 0
33 0
34 0
35 0
36 0
37 0 0.000
38 0
39 0
40 0
41 0
42 0
43 0
44 0
45 0
46 0
47 0
48 0
49 0 0.000
50 0
51 0
52 0
53 0
54 0
55 0
56 0
57 0
58 0
59 0
60 0
Ft+m= St + bt.m
St = α.X t + (1 − α)(St −1 + b t −1 )
bt = β(St − St −1 ) + (1 − β)b t −1
3.4 Peramalan Data Permintaan dengan Menggunakan Metode Holt, de
Area Bojonegoro
Data
Periode Permintaan
Pemulusan (st)
1 0.00 0.00
2 0.00 0.00
3 0.00 0.00
4 0.00 0.00
5 0.00 0.00
6 0.00 0.00
7 0.00 0.00
8 0.00 0.00
9 0.00 0.00
10 0.00 0.00
11 0.00 0.00
12 0.00 0.00
13 0.00 0.00
14 0.00 0.00
15 0.00 0.00
16 0.00 0.00
17 0.00 0.00
18 0.00 0.00
19 0.00 0.00
20 0.00 0.00
21 0.00 0.00
22 0.00 0.00
23 0.00 0.00
24 0.00 0.00
Total 0.00 0.00

Periode Forecast
Total Permintaan
x y'
1 0 0.000
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
10 0
11 0
12 0
13 0 0.000
14 0
15 0
16 0
17 0
18 0
19 0
20 0
21 0
22 0
23 0
24 0
25 0 0.000
26 0
27 0
28 0
29 0
30 0
31 0
32 0
33 0
34 0
35 0
36 0
37 0 0.000
38 0
39 0
40 0
41 0
42 0
43 0
44 0
45 0
46 0
47 0
48 0
49 0 0.000
50 0
51 0
52 0
53 0
54 0
55 0
56 0
57 0
58 0
59 0
60 0
Perkiraan Permintaan (Unit) Total

Permintaan
Bojonegoro Bangkalan (Unit)
0 0 13,667,545
0 0 19,172,409
0 0 24,677,273
0 0 30,182,137
0 0 35,687,001
Data Permintaan Bojonegoro
x2 y' y-y' (y-y')2
1 0.000 0.00 0.00
4 0.000 0.00 0.00
9 0.000 0.00 0.00
16 0.000 0.00 0.00
25 0.000 0.00 0.00
36 0.000 0.00 0.00
49 0.000 0.00 0.00
64 0.000 0.00 0.00
81 0.000 0.00 0.00
100 0.000 0.00 0.00
121 0.000 0.00 0.00
144 0.000 0.00 0.00
169 0.000 0.00 0.00
196 0.000 0.00 0.00
225 0.000 0.00 0.00
256 0.000 0.00 0.00
289 0.000 0.00 0.00
324 0.000 0.00 0.00
361 0.000 0.00 0.00
400 0.000 0.00 0.00
441 0.000 0.00 0.00
484 0.000 0.00 0.00
529 0.000 0.00 0.00
576 0.000 0.00 0.00
4900 0 0 0
SSE MSE MAPE

0.000 0 #DIV/0!
Tahun
2015
2016
2017
2018
2018
2019

Total Permintaan
Periode Forcast Data Forcast

Jan-15 1,077,596 18,248,782.000
Feb-15 1,158,166
Mar-15 1,238,736
Apr-15 1,319,307
May-15 1,399,877
Jun-15 1,480,447
Jul-15 1,561,017
Aug-15 1,641,587
Sep-15 1,722,157
Oct-15 1,802,727
Nov-15 1,883,297
Dec-15 1,963,868
Jan-16 2,044,438 29,850,881.000
Feb-16 2,125,008
Mar-16 2,205,578
Apr-16 2,286,148
May-16 2,366,718
Jun-16 2,447,288
Jul-16 2,527,858
Aug-16 2,608,429
Sep-16 2,688,999
Oct-16 2,769,569
Nov-16 2,850,139
Dec-16 2,930,709
Jan-17 3,011,279 41,452,978.000
Feb-17 3,091,849
Mar-17 3,172,419
Apr-17 3,252,990
May-17 3,333,560
Jun-17 3,414,130
Jul-17 3,494,700
Aug-17 3,575,270
Sep-17 3,655,840
Oct-17 3,736,410
Nov-17 3,816,980
Dec-17 3,897,551
Jan-18 3,978,121 53,055,077.000
Feb-18 4,058,691
Mar-18 4,139,261
Apr-18 4,219,831
May-18 4,300,401
Jun-18 4,380,971
Jul-18 4,461,541
Aug-18 4,542,112
Sep-18 4,622,682
Oct-18 4,703,252
Nov-18 4,783,822
Dec-18 4,864,392
Jan-19 4,944,962 64,657,176.000
Feb-19 5,025,532
Mar-19 5,106,103
Apr-19 5,186,673
May-19 5,267,243
Jun-19 5,347,813
Jul-19 5,428,383
Aug-19 5,508,953
Sep-19 5,589,523
Oct-19 5,670,093
Nov-19 5,750,664
Dec-19 5,831,234
1.491
o
Metode Holt by SPSS
Total Permintaan
Jan-15 1,077,592 18,248,508.000
Feb-15 1,158,159
Mar-15 1,238,726
Apr-15 1,319,292
May-15 1,399,859
Jun-15 1,480,426
Jul-15 1,560,992
Aug-15 1,641,559
Sep-15 1,722,126
Oct-15 1,802,692
Nov-15 1,883,259
Dec-15 1,963,826
Jan-16 2,044,393 29,850,112.000
Feb-16 2,124,959
Mar-16 2,205,526
Apr-16 2,286,093
May-16 2,366,659
Jun-16 2,447,226
Jul-16 2,527,793
Aug-16 2,608,359
Sep-16 2,688,926
Oct-16 2,769,493
Nov-16 2,850,059
Dec-16 2,930,626
Jan-17 3,011,193 41,451,712.000
Feb-17 3,091,759
Mar-17 3,172,326
Apr-17 3,252,893
May-17 3,333,459
Jun-17 3,414,026
Jul-17 3,494,593
Aug-17 3,575,159
Sep-17 3,655,726
Oct-17 3,736,293
Nov-17 3,816,859
Dec-17 3,897,426
Jan-18 3,977,993 53,053,312.000
Feb-18 4,058,559
Mar-18 4,139,126
Apr-18 4,219,693
May-18 4,300,259
Jun-18 4,380,826
Jul-18 4,461,393
Aug-18 4,541,959
Sep-18 4,622,526
Oct-18 4,703,093
Nov-18 4,783,659
Dec-18 4,864,226
Jan-19 4,944,793 64,654,914.000
Feb-19 5,025,359
Mar-19 5,105,926
Apr-19 5,186,493
May-19 5,267,059
Jun-19 5,347,626
Jul-19 5,428,193
Aug-19 5,508,760
Sep-19 5,589,326
Oct-19 5,669,893
Nov-19 5,750,460
Dec-19 5,831,026
1.491
unakan Metode Brown, dengan α = 0.2
DES
Nilai a Nilai b Nilai Ramalan
(S''t)
0 - - -
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
MSE
SSE
Tahun
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
α 0.2 β 0.8
enggunakan Metode Holt, dengan α = 0.2 dan β = 0.8
Trend Ramalan Square

eror
Pemulusan (bt) bila m=1 Error
0.00
0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
MSE 0.00
SSE 0
Tahun
2015
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Periode
Tahun
|(y-y')/y*100%| x
#DIV/0! 1
#DIV/0! 2
#DIV/0! 3
#DIV/0! 4
#DIV/0! 5
#DIV/0! 6
2013
#DIV/0! 7
#DIV/0! 8
#DIV/0! 9
#DIV/0! 10
#DIV/0! 11
#DIV/0! 12
#DIV/0! 13
#DIV/0! 14
#DIV/0! 15
#DIV/0! 16
#DIV/0! 17
#DIV/0! 18
2018
#DIV/0! 19
#DIV/0! 20
#DIV/0! 21
#DIV/0! 22
#DIV/0! 23
#DIV/0! 24
#DIV/0! Total 300
DIKETAHUI
b
0.000

Periode
x
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
Smooting Bown
Periode
124710 124709 Jan-13

132988 132988 Feb-13
141267 141267 Mar-13
150870 150870 Apr-13
163657 163656 May-13
181739 181738 Jun-13
190634 190635 Jul-13
210496 210495 Aug-13
236363 236361 Sep-13
266067 266066 Oct-13
297897 297896 Nov-13
309052 309054 Dec-13
342797 342795 Jan-14
374955 374954 Feb-14
416813 416811 Mar-14
467527 467525 Apr-14
496896 496898 May-14
548496 548493 Jun-14
610889 610887 Jul-14
686482 686480 Aug-14
766315 766313 Sep-14
869186 869182 Oct-14
918585 918590 Nov-14
982769 982769 Dec-14
1077596 1077592
1158166 1158159
1238736 1238726
1319307 1319292
1399877 1399859
1480447 1480426
1561017 1560992
1641587 1641559
1722157 1722126
1802727 1802692
1883297 1883259
1963868 1963826
2044438 2044393
2125008 2124959
2205578 2205526
2286148 2286093
2366718 2366659
2447288 2447226
2527858 2527793
2608429 2608359
2688999 2688926
2769569 2769493
2850139 2850059
2930709 2930626
3011279 3011193
3091849 3091759
3172419 3172326
3252990 3252893
3333560 3333459
3414130 3414026
3494700 3494593
3575270 3575159
3655840 3655726
3736410 3736293
3816980 3816859
3897551 3897426
3978121 3977993 MAPE
4058691 4058559
4139261 4139126
4219831 4219693 Smooting Holt
4300401 4300259
Periode
4380971 4380826
4461541 4461393 Jan-13
4542112 4541959 Feb-13
4622682 4622526 Mar-13
4703252 4703093 Apr-13
4783822 4783659 May-13
4864392 4864226 Jun-13
4944962 4944793 Jul-13
5025532 5025359 Aug-13
5106103 5105926 Sep-13
5186673 5186493 Oct-13
5267243 5267059 Nov-13
5347813 5347626 Dec-13
5428383 5428193 Jan-14
5508953 5508760 Feb-14
5589523 5589326 Mar-14
5670093 5669893 Apr-14
5750664 5750460 May-14
5831234 5831026 Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
MAPE
3.1 Peramalan Data Permintaan dengan Me

Area
Square
Error Periode
Error
- - 1
0 0 2
0 0 3
0 0 4
0 0 5
0 0 6
0 0 7
0 0 8
0 0 9
0 0 10
0 0 11
0 0 12
0 0 13
0 0 14
0 0 15
0 0 16
0 0 17
0 0 18
0 0 19
0 0 20
0 0 21
0 0 22
0 0 23
0 0 24
0 0 Total
MSE 0
SSE 0

Periode
x
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
Ft+m= St + bt.m
St = α.X t + (1 − α)(St −1 + b t −1 )
bt = β(St − St −1 ) + (1 − β)b t −1
3.4 Peramalan Data Permintaan dengan
Area
Periode
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Total

Periode
x
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
Data Permintaan Bangkalan
Permintaan
y xy x2 y'
0 0 1 0.000
0 0 4 0.000
0 0 9 0.000
0 0 16 0.000
0 0 25 0.000
0 0 36 0.000
0 0 49 0.000
0 0 64 0.000
0 0 81 0.000
0 0 100 0.000
0 0 121 0.000
0 0 144 0.000
0 0 169 0.000
0 0 196 0.000
0 0 225 0.000
0 0 256 0.000
0 0 289 0.000
0 0 324 0.000
0 0 361 0.000
0 0 400 0.000
0 0 441 0.000
0 0 484 0.000
0 0 529 0.000
0 0 576 0.000
0 0 4900 0
DIKETAHUI RUMUS SSE

a 0.000
y'=a+bx
0.000
Forecast Data Permintaan Bangkalan

Forecast
y'
0 0.000
0
0
0
0
0
2015
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0.000
0
0
0
0
0
2016
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0.000
0
0
0
0
0
2017
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0.000
0
0
0
0
0
2018
0
2018
0
0
0
0
0
0 0.000
0
0
0
0
0
2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
Smooting Bown Bangkalan
Jumlah Permintaan
Jumlah Permintaan Akhir / Data bank + Metode Brown by SPSS
(dari Bank Data) (NPM
Tertinggi*100)
0 0 Jan-15 1,773,225
0 0 Feb-15 1,905,373
0 0 Mar-15 2,037,521
0 0 Apr-15 2,169,668
0 0 May-15 2,301,816
0 0 Jun-15 2,433,963
0 0 Jul-15 2,566,111
0 0 Aug-15 2,698,258
0 0 Sep-15 2,830,406
0 0 Oct-15 2,962,553
0 0 Nov-15 3,094,701
0 0 Dec-15 3,226,849
0 0 Jan-16 3,358,996
0 0 Feb-16 3,491,144
0 0 Mar-16 3,623,291
0 0 Apr-16 3,755,439
0 0 May-16 3,887,586
0 0 Jun-16 4,019,734
0 0 Jul-16 4,151,882
0 0 Aug-16 4,284,029
0 0 Sep-16 4,416,177
0 0 Oct-16 4,548,324
0 0 Nov-16 4,680,472
0 0 Dec-16 4,812,619
Jan-17 4,944,767
Feb-17 5,076,914
Mar-17 5,209,062
Apr-17 5,341,210
May-17 5,473,357
Jun-17 5,605,505
Jul-17 5,737,652
Aug-17 5,869,800
Sep-17 6,001,947
Oct-17 6,134,095
Nov-17 6,266,242
Dec-17 6,398,390
Jan-18 6,530,538
Feb-18 6,662,685
Mar-18 6,794,833
Apr-18 6,926,980
May-18 7,059,128
Jun-18 7,191,275
Jul-18 7,323,423
Aug-18 7,455,571
Sep-18 7,587,718
Oct-18 7,719,866
Nov-18 7,852,013
Dec-18 7,984,161
Jan-19 8,116,308
Feb-19 8,248,456
Mar-19 8,380,603
Apr-19 8,512,751
May-19 8,644,899
Jun-19 8,777,046
Jul-19 8,909,194
Aug-19 9,041,341
Sep-19 9,173,489
Oct-19 9,305,636
Nov-19 9,437,784
Dec-19 9,569,931
MAPE 1.424
Smooting Holt Bangkalan
Jumlah Permintaan Metode Holt by SPSS
Jumlah Permintaan Akhir / Data bank +
(dari Bank Data) (NPM
Tertinggi*100) Periode Forcast Data Forcast
0 0 Jan-15 1,772,425
0 0 Feb-15 1,903,674
0 0 Mar-15 2,034,924
0 0 Apr-15 2,166,173
0 0 May-15 2,297,423
0 0 Jun-15 2,428,672
0 0 Jul-15 2,559,922
0 0 Aug-15 2,691,172
0 0 Sep-15 2,822,421
0 0 Oct-15 2,953,671
0 0 Nov-15 3,084,920
0 0 Dec-15 3,216,170
0 0 Jan-16 3,347,419
0 0 Feb-16 3,478,669
0 0 Mar-16 3,609,919
0 0 Apr-16 3,741,168
0 0 May-16 3,872,418
0 0 Jun-16 4,003,667
0 0 Jul-16 4,134,917
0 0 Aug-16 4,266,167
0 0 Sep-16 4,397,416
0 0 Oct-16 4,528,666
0 0 Nov-16 4,659,915
0 0 Dec-16 4,791,165
Jan-17 4,922,414
Feb-17 5,053,664
Mar-17 5,184,914
Apr-17 5,316,163
May-17 5,447,413
Jun-17 5,578,662
Jul-17 5,709,912
Aug-17 5,841,161
Sep-17 5,972,411
Oct-17 6,103,661
Nov-17 6,234,910
Dec-17 6,366,160
Jan-18 6,497,409
Feb-18 6,628,659
Mar-18 6,759,909
Apr-18 6,891,158
May-18 7,022,408
Jun-18 7,153,657
Jul-18 7,284,907
Aug-18 7,416,156
Sep-18 7,547,406
Oct-18 7,678,656
Nov-18 7,809,905
Dec-18 7,941,155
Jan-19 8,072,404
Feb-19 8,203,654
Mar-19 8,334,903
Apr-19 8,466,153
May-19 8,597,403
Jun-19 8,728,652
Jul-19 8,859,902
Aug-19 8,991,151
Sep-19 9,122,401
Oct-19 9,253,651
Nov-19 9,384,900
Dec-19 9,516,150
MAPE 1.185
Peramalan Data Permintaan dengan Menggunakan Metode Brown, dengan α = 0.2

Bangkalan
SES DES
Data Permintaan Nilai a
(S't) (S''t)
0 0 0 -
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0

Forecast
y'
0 0.000
0
0
0
0
0
2015
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0.000
0
0
0
0
0
2016
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0.000
0
0
0
0
0
2017
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0.000
0
0
0
0
0
2018
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0.000
0
0
0
0
0
2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
m= St + bt.m
= α.X t + (1 − α)(St −1 + b t −1 ) α 0.2
= β(St − St −1 ) + (1 − β)b t −1
Peramalan Data Permintaan dengan Menggunakan Metode Holt, dengan α = 0.2 dan β = 0.8
Bangkalan
Data Trend Ramalan

Permintaan
Pemulusan (st) Pemulusan (bt) bila m=1
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
MSE
SSE

Forecast
y'
0 0.000
0
0
0
2015
0
0
2015
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0.000
0
0
0
0
0
2016
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0.000
0
0
0
0
0
2017
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0.000
0
0
0
0
0
2018
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0.000
0
0
0
0
0
2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
an
Linier
y-y' (y-y')2 |(y-y')/y*100%|
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0 0 #DIV/0!
MSE MAPE
0 #DIV/0!
Total Permintaan
30,000,444.000 199346 194116

211849 216498
235308 236629
261214 260832
282254 282630
299123 299723
320507 319951
344318 343793
391754 389265
419987 422339
461219 461019
527354 524588
49,029,693.000 562321 566019
608552 608709
690232 685890
762117 763123
843081 843869
933394 933192
1003884 1006594
1089755 1088756
1238685 1231401
1349697 1354224
1523551 1520037
1633818 1641251
68,058,941.000 1773225 1772425
1905373 1903674
2037521 2034924
2169668 2166173
2301816 2297423
2433963 2428672
2566111 2559922
2698258 2691172
2830406 2822421
2962553 2953671
3094701 3084920
3226849 3216170
87,088,191.000 3358996 3347419
3491144 3478669
3623291 3609919
3755439 3741168
3887586 3872418
4019734 4003667
4151882 4134917
4284029 4266167
4416177 4397416
4548324 4528666
4680472 4659915
4812619 4791165
106,117,438.000 4944767 4922414
5076914 5053664
5209062 5184914
5341210 5316163
5473357 5447413
5605505 5578662
5737652 5709912
5869800 5841161
6001947 5972411
6134095 6103661
6266242 6234910
6398390 6366160
6530538 6497409
6662685 6628659
6794833 6759909
6926980 6891158
7059128 7022408
Total Permintaan
7191275 7153657
29,931,567.000 7323423 7284907
7455571 7416156
7587718 7547406
7719866 7678656
7852013 7809905
7984161 7941155
8116308 8072404
8248456 8203654
8380603 8334903
8512751 8466153
8644899 8597403
8777046 8728652
48,831,506.000 8909194 8859902
9041341 8991151
9173489 9122401
9305636 9253651
9437784 9384900
9569931 9516150
67,731,445.000
86,631,385.000
105,531,324.000
Nilai b Nilai Ramalan Error
- - -
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
MSE
SSE
β 0.8
0.2 dan β = 0.8
Square
eror
Error
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
MSE 0.00
SSE 0
Square
Error
-
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Regresi Linier
Data Produksi Bondowoso

Periode Produksi
Tahun
x y xy x2 y'
1 206,524 206524 1 159026.567
2 216,529 433058 4 180230.532
3 233,337 700011 9 201434.497
4 242,413 969652 16 222638.462
5 256,572 1282860 25 243842.428
6 264,076 1584456 36 265046.393
2013 7 271,805 1902635 49 286250.358
8 285,727 2285816 64 307454.323
9 307,418 2766762 81 328658.288
10 322,467 3224670 100 349862.254
11 338,269 3720959 121 371066.219
12 358,179 4298148 144 392270.184
13 375,766 4884958 169 413474.149
14 401,620 5622680 196 434678.114
15 433,235 6498525 225 455882.080
16 463,111 7409776 256 477086.045
17 481,378 8183426 289 498290.010
18 519,374 9348732 324 519493.975
2018 19 534,762 10160478 361 540697.941
20 566,462 11329240 400 561901.906
21 605,664 12718944 441 583105.871
22 623,641 13720102 484 604309.836
23 660,674 15195502 529 625513.801
24 699,929 16798296 576 646717.767
Total 300 9668932 145246210 4900 9668932
DIKETAHUI RUMUS SSE

b a 28,429.231
21203.965 137822.601 y'=a+bx
Forecast Data Produksi Bondowoso

Periode Forecast
Total Produksi Tahun
x y'
25 667,922 9,414,522
26 689,126
27 710,330
28 731,534
29 752,738
30 773,942
2015
31 795,146
32 816,349
2015
33 837,553
34 858,757
35 879,961
36 901,165
37 922,369 12,467,893
38 943,573
39 964,777
40 985,981
41 1,007,185
42 1,028,389
2016
43 1,049,593
44 1,070,797
45 1,092,001
46 1,113,205
47 1,134,409
48 1,155,613
49 1,176,817 15,521,264
50 1,198,021
51 1,219,225
52 1,240,429
53 1,261,633
54 1,282,837
2017
55 1,304,041
56 1,325,245
57 1,346,449
58 1,367,653
59 1,388,857
60 1,410,061
61 1,431,264 18,574,635
62 1,452,468
63 1,473,672
64 1,494,876
65 1,516,080
66 1,537,284
2018
67 1,558,488
68 1,579,692
69 1,600,896
70 1,622,100
71 1,643,304
72 1,664,508
73 1,685,712 21,628,006
74 1,706,916
75 1,728,120
76 1,749,324
77 1,770,528
78 1,791,732
2019
79 1,812,936
80 1,834,140
81 1,855,344
82 1,876,548
2019
83 1,897,752
84 1,918,956
Smooting Bown Bondowoso

Jumlah Produksi Metode Brown by SPSS
Jumlah Produksi
(dari Bank Data)
(NPM 3 Anggota*10) Periode Forcast Data Forcast
Jan-13 205,204 206,524 Jan-15 772,380
Feb-13 215,209 216,529 Feb-15 804,221
Mar-13 232,017 233,337 Mar-15 836,062
Apr-13 241,093 242,413 Apr-15 867,903
May-13 255,252 256,572 May-15 899,744
Jun-13 262,756 264,076 Jun-15 931,584
Jul-13 270,485 271,805 Jul-15 963,425
Aug-13 284,407 285,727 Aug-15 995,266
Sep-13 306,098 307,418 Sep-15 1,027,107
Oct-13 321,147 322,467 Oct-15 1,058,948
Nov-13 336,949 338,269 Nov-15 1,090,788
Dec-13 356,859 358,179 Dec-15 1,122,629
Jan-14 374,446 375,766 Jan-16 1,154,470
Feb-14 400,300 401,620 Feb-16 1,186,311
Mar-14 431,915 433,235 Mar-16 1,218,152
Apr-14 461,791 463,111 Apr-16 1,249,992
May-14 480,058 481,378 May-16 1,281,833
Jun-14 518,054 519,374 Jun-16 1,313,674
Jul-14 533,442 534,762 Jul-16 1,345,515
Aug-14 565,142 566,462 Aug-16 1,377,356
Sep-14 604,344 605,664 Sep-16 1,409,196
Oct-14 622,321 623,641 Oct-16 1,441,037
Nov-14 659,354 660,674 Nov-16 1,472,878
Dec-14 698,609 699,929 Dec-16 1,504,719
Jan-17 1,536,560
Feb-17 1,568,400
Mar-17 1,600,241
Apr-17 1,632,082
May-17 1,663,923
Jun-17 1,695,764
Jul-17 1,727,604
Aug-17 1,759,445
Sep-17 1,791,286
Oct-17 1,823,127
Nov-17 1,854,967
Dec-17 1,886,808
Jan-18 1,918,649
Feb-18 1,950,490
Mar-18 1,982,331
Apr-18 2,014,171
May-18 2,046,012
Jun-18 2,077,853
Jul-18 2,109,694
Aug-18 2,141,535
Sep-18 2,173,375
Oct-18 2,205,216
Nov-18 2,237,057
Dec-18 2,268,898
Jan-19 2,300,739
Feb-19 2,332,579
Mar-19 2,364,420
Apr-19 2,396,261
May-19 2,428,102
Jun-19 2,459,943
Jul-19 2,491,783
Aug-19 2,523,624
Sep-19 2,555,465
Oct-19 2,587,306
Nov-19 2,619,147
Dec-19 2,650,987
MAPE 1.122
Smooting Holt Bondowoso

Jumlah Produksi Metode Holt by SPSS
Jumlah Produksi
(dari Bank Data)
(NPM 3 Anggota*10) Periode Forcast Data Forcast
Jan-13 205,204 206,524 Jan-15 770,163
Feb-13 215,209 216,529 Feb-15 799,908
Mar-13 232,017 233,337 Mar-15 829,653
Apr-13 241,093 242,413 Apr-15 859,398
May-13 255,252 256,572 May-15 889,143
Jun-13 262,756 264,076 Jun-15 918,888
Jul-13 270,485 271,805 Jul-15 948,633
Aug-13 284,407 285,727 Aug-15 978,378
Sep-13 306,098 307,418 Sep-15 1,008,123
Oct-13 321,147 322,467 Oct-15 1,037,868
Nov-13 336,949 338,269 Nov-15 1,067,613
Dec-13 356,859 358,179 Dec-15 1,097,358
Jan-14 374,446 375,766 Jan-16 1,127,103
Feb-14 400,300 401,620 Feb-16 1,156,848
Mar-14 431,915 433,235 Mar-16 1,186,593
Apr-14 461,791 463,111 Apr-16 1,216,338
May-14 480,058 481,378 May-16 1,246,083
Jun-14 518,054 519,374 Jun-16 1,275,828
Jul-14 533,442 534,762 Jul-16 1,305,573
Aug-14 565,142 566,462 Aug-16 1,335,318
Sep-14 604,344 605,664 Sep-16 1,365,063
Oct-14 622,321 623,641 Oct-16 1,394,808
Nov-14 659,354 660,674 Nov-16 1,424,553
Dec-14 698,609 699,929 Dec-16 1,454,298
Jan-17 1,484,043
Feb-17 1,513,788
Mar-17 1,543,534
Apr-17 1,573,279
May-17 1,603,024
Jun-17 1,632,769
Jul-17 1,662,514
Aug-17 1,692,259
Sep-17 1,722,004
Oct-17 1,751,749
Nov-17 1,781,494
Dec-17 1,811,239
Jan-18 1,840,984
Feb-18 1,870,729
Mar-18 1,900,474
Apr-18 1,930,219
May-18 1,959,964
Jun-18 1,989,709
Jul-18 2,019,454
Aug-18 2,049,199
Sep-18 2,078,944
Oct-18 2,108,689
Nov-18 2,138,434
Dec-18 2,168,179
Jan-19 2,197,924
Feb-19 2,227,669
Mar-19 2,257,414
Apr-19 2,287,159
May-19 2,316,904
Jun-19 2,346,649
Jul-19 2,376,395
Aug-19 2,406,140
Sep-19 2,435,885
Oct-19 2,465,630
Nov-19 2,495,375
Dec-19 2,525,120
MAPE 0.747
3.1 Peramalan Data Produksi dengan Menggunakan Metode Brown, dengan α = 0.5 β = 0.5
Area Bondowoso
Kapasitas SES DES

Periode Nilai a
Produksi (S't) (S''t)
1 206,524 206,524 206,524 -
2 216,529 211,527 207,525 215,529
3 233,337 222,432 210,506 234,358
4 242,413 232,422 214,889 249,956
5 256,572 244,497 220,811 268,184
6 264,076 254,287 227,506 281,067
7 271,805 263,046 234,614 291,478
8 285,727 274,386 242,568 306,204
9 307,418 290,902 252,235 329,569
10 322,467 306,685 263,125 350,244
11 338,269 322,477 274,995 369,958
12 358,179 340,328 288,062 392,594
13 375,766 358,047 302,059 414,035
14 401,620 379,833 317,614 442,053
15 433,235 406,534 335,398 477,671
16 463,111 434,823 355,283 514,362
17 481,378 458,100 375,846 540,354
18 519,374 488,737 398,425 579,050
19 534,762 511,750 421,090 602,410
20 566,462 539,106 444,693 633,519
21 605,664 572,385 470,231 674,539
22 623,641 598,013 495,788 700,238
23 660,674 629,343 522,499 736,188
24 699,929 664,636 550,926 778,346
Total 9,668,932 9,210,820 7,833,211 10,381,905

Periode Forecast
x y'
1 806,774 11,557,499.931
2 835,201
3 863,629
4 892,056
5 920,484
6 948,911
2015
7 977,339
8 1,005,766
9 1,034,194
10 1,062,621
11 1,091,049
12 1,119,476
13 1,147,904 15,651,060.034
14 1,176,331
15 1,204,759
16 1,233,186
17 1,261,614
18 1,290,041
2016
19 1,318,469
20 1,346,896
21 1,375,324
22 1,403,751
23 1,432,179
24 1,460,606
25 1,489,034 19,744,620.136
26 1,517,461
2017
27 1,545,889
28 1,574,316
29 1,602,744
30 1,631,171
2017
31 1,659,599
32 1,688,026
33 1,716,454
34 1,744,881
35 1,773,309
36 1,801,736
37 1,830,164 23,838,180.239
38 1,858,591
39 1,887,019
40 1,915,446
41 1,943,874
42 1,972,301
2018
43 2,000,729
44 2,029,156
45 2,057,584
46 2,086,011
47 2,114,439
48 2,142,866
49 2,171,294 27,931,740.342
50 2,199,721
51 2,228,149
52 2,256,576
53 2,285,004
54 2,313,431
2019
55 2,341,859
56 2,370,286
57 2,398,714
58 2,427,141
59 2,455,569
60 2,483,996
Ft+m= St + bt.m
St = α.X t + (1 − α)(St −1 + b t −1 ) α 0.5
bt = β(St − St −1 ) + (1 − β)b t −1
3.4 Peramalan Data Produksi dengan Menggunakan Metode Holt, dengan α = 0.5 dan β = 0
Area Bondowoso
Data Trend Ramalan

Periode Produksi
Pemulusan (st) Pemulusan (bt) bila m=1
1 206,524.00 206,524.00 10,005.00
2 216,529.00 216529.00 10005.00
3 233,337.00 229935.50 11705.75 226534.00
4 242,413.00 242027.13 11898.69 241,641.25
5 256,572.00 255248.91 12560.23 253,925.81
6 264,076.00 265942.57 11626.95 267,809.14
7 271,805.00 274687.26 10185.82 277,569.52
8 285,727.00 285300.04 10399.30 284,873.08
9 307,418.00 301558.67 13328.96 295,699.34
10 322,467.00 318677.32 15223.81 314,887.63
11 338,269.00 336085.06 16315.78 333,901.12
12 358,179.00 355289.92 17760.32 352,400.84
13 375,766.00 374408.12 18439.26 373,050.23
14 401,620.00 397233.69 20632.41 392,847.37
15 433,235.00 425550.55 24474.64 417,866.10
16 463,111.00 456568.09 27746.09 450,025.19
17 481,378.00 482846.09 27012.04 484,314.19
18 519,374.00 514616.07 29391.01 509,858.14
19 534,762.00 539384.54 27079.74 544,007.08
20 566,462.00 566463.14 27079.17 566,464.28
21 605,664.00 599603.16 30109.59 593,542.31
22 623,641.00 626676.87 28591.66 629,712.75
23 660,674.00 657971.26 29943.02 655,268.53
24 699,929.00 693921.64 32946.70 687,914.29
Total 9,668,932.00 9,623,048.60 474,460.94 9,154,112.19
MSE
SSE

Periode Forecast
x y'
1 726,868 10,896,902.429
2 759,815
3 792,762
4 825,708
5 858,655
6 891,602
2015
7 924,549
8 957,495
9 990,442
10 1,023,389
11 1,056,335
12 1,089,282
13 1,122,229 15,641,227.412
14 1,155,175
15 1,188,122
16 1,221,069
17 1,254,016
18 1,286,962
2016
19 1,319,909
20 1,352,856
21 1,385,802
22 1,418,749
2016
23 1,451,696
24 1,484,642
25 1,517,589 20,385,552.396
26 1,550,536
27 1,583,483
28 1,616,429
29 1,649,376
30 1,682,323
2017
31 1,715,269
32 1,748,216
33 1,781,163
34 1,814,109
35 1,847,056
36 1,880,003
37 1,912,950 25,129,877.379
38 1,945,896
39 1,978,843
40 2,011,790
41 2,044,736
42 2,077,683
2018
43 2,110,630
44 2,143,577
45 2,176,523
46 2,209,470
47 2,242,417
48 2,275,363
49 2,308,310 29,874,202.362
50 2,341,257
51 2,374,203
52 2,407,150
53 2,440,097
54 2,473,044
2019
55 2,505,990
56 2,538,937
57 2,571,884
58 2,604,830
59 2,637,777
60 2,670,724
Penawaran
Perkiraan Pena
Tahun
Bondowoso
2015 9,414,522
2016 12,467,893
2017 15,521,264
2018 18,574,635
2019 21,628,006
-1
dowoso
y-y' (y-y')2 |(y-y')/y*100%|

47,497.43 2,256,006,173.25 0.2299850542 0.2299850542
36,298.47 1,317,578,787.56 0.1676379059 0.1676379059
31,902.50 1,017,769,691.19 0.1367228639 0.1367228639
19,774.54 391,032,340.50 0.0815737509 0.0815737509
12,729.57 162,042,015.11 0.0496140361 0.0496140361
-970.39 941,662.10 -0.0036746723 -0.0036746723
-14,445.36 208,668,366.91 0.0531460347 0
-21,727.32 472,076,572.93 0.0760422473 0
-21,240.29 451,149,851.56 0.0690925333 0
-27,395.25 750,499,921.08 0.084955216 0
-32,797.22 1,075,657,563.68 0.0969560286 0
-34,091.18 1,162,208,830.47 0.0951791815 0
-37,708.15 1,421,904,521.77 0.100350083 0
-33,058.11 1,092,838,933.82 0.0823119229 0
-22,647.08 512,890,219.40 0.0522743539 0
-13,975.04 195,301,880.73 0.0301764478 0
-16,912.01 286,016,087.14 0.0351324949 0
-119.98 14,394.09 0.0002309999 0
-5,935.94 35,235,390.57 0.011100154 0
4,560.09 20,794,459.14 0.0080501326 0.0080501326
22,558.13 508,869,183.33 0.0372452861 0.0372452861
19,331.16 373,693,892.63 0.0309972625 0.0309972625
35,160.20 1,236,239,562.13 0.0532186805 0.0532186805
53,211.23 2,831,435,352.85 0.0760237586 0.0760237586
-0.000000001 17,780,865,653.94 1.65 0.87
MSE MAPE 0.0361414191

740,869,402 0.069
77,606,322.348
Total Produksi
11,370,057 217450 210264
220056 223582
234765 236671
253536 252517
265871 266756
279523 280297
302232 299209
321497 319952
337580 338859
360254 359735
384274 382965
398875 401617
15,955,133 427215 425087
438581 442007
458933 459373
500709 491637
520826 521040
543288 546657
576289 575486
618821 613384
644329 646576
682338 682152
712648 714691
735277 740064
20,540,207 772380 770163
804221 799908
836062 829653
867903 859398
899744 889143
931584 918888
963425 948633
995266 978378
1027107 1008123
1058948 1037868
1090788 1067613
1122629 1097358
25,125,281 1154470 1127103
1186311 1156848
1218152 1186593
1249992 1216338
1281833 1246083
1313674 1275828
1345515 1305573
1377356 1335318
1409196 1365063
1441037 1394808
1472878 1424553
1504719 1454298
29,710,356 1536560 1484043
1568400 1513788
1600241 1543534
1632082 1573279
1663923 1603024
1695764 1632769
1727604 1662514
1759445 1692259
1791286 1722004
1823127 1751749
1854967 1781494
1886808 1811239
1918649 1840984
1950490 1870729
1982331 1900474
2014171 1930219
2046012 1959964
Total Produksi
2077853 1989709
11,205,126 2109694 2019454
2141535 2049199
2173375 2078944
2205216 2108689
2237057 2138434
2268898 2168179
2300739 2197924
2332579 2227669
2364420 2257414
2396261 2287159
2428102 2316904
2459943 2346649
15,488,406 2491783 2376395
2523624 2406140
2555465 2435885
2587306 2465630
2619147 2495375
2650987 2525120
19,771,696
24,054,978
28,338,264
α = 0.5 β = 0.5
Square
Nilai b Nilai Ramalan Error
Error
- - - -
1,001 216,529 0 0
2,981 237,339 -4,002 16,016,004
4,383 254,339 -11,926 142,224,706
5,922 274,105 -17,533 307,410,998
6,695 287,762 -23,686 561,043,745
7,108 298,586 -26,781 717,201,318
7,954 314,159 -28,432 808,370,332
9,667 339,236 -31,818 1,012,382,871
10,890 361,134 -38,667 1,495,137,840
11,870 381,829 -43,560 1,897,432,667
13,066 405,660 -47,481 2,254,481,853
13,997 428,032 -52,266 2,731,733,449
15,555 457,608 -55,988 3,134,659,508
17,784 495,455 -62,220 3,871,284,106
19,885 534,247 -71,136 5,060,376,770
20,563 560,918 -79,540 6,326,574,249
22,578 601,628 -82,254 6,765,714,703
22,665 625,075 -90,313 8,156,374,386
23,603 657,122 -90,660 8,219,245,847
25,538 700,077 -94,413 8,913,817,264
25,556 725,795 -102,154 10,435,377,596
26,711 762,899 -102,225 10,450,032,206
28,428 806,774 -106,845 11,415,798,541
344,402 10,726,307 -1,263,899 94,692,690,961
MSE 3,945,528,790
SSE 65,607
β 0.5
gan α = 0.5 dan β = 0.5
Square
eror
Error
-6803.00 46,280,809.00
-771.75 595,598.06
-2646.19 7,002,308.29
3733.14 13,936,338.93
5764.52 33,229,685.43
-853.92 729,180.90
-11718.66 137,327,013.02
-7579.37 57,446,783.83
-4367.88 19,078,346.28
-5778.16 33,387,167.19
-2715.77 7,375,381.62
-8772.63 76,958,953.77
-15368.90 236,203,052.48
-13085.81 171,238,448.56
2936.19 8,621,186.65
-9515.86 90,551,636.34
9245.08 85,471,489.26
2.28 5.20
-12121.69 146,935,353.61
6071.75 36,866,125.99
-5405.47 29,219,106.77
-12014.71 144,353,296.97
-91,766.81 1,382,807,268.15
MSE 57,616,969.51
SSE 7,928
Perkiraan Penawaran (Unit) Total Penawaran
Sumenep Pasuruan (Unit)
0 0 9,416,537
0 0 12,469,909
0 0 15,523,281
0 0 18,576,653
0 0 21,630,025
Regresi Linier
Data Produksi
Periode Produksi
Tahun
x y xy x2
1 0 0 1
2 0 0 4
3 0 0 9
4 0 0 16
5 0 0 25
6 0 0 36
2013 7 0 0 49
8 0 0 64
9 0 0 81
10 0 0 100
11 0 0 121
12 0 0 144
13 0 0 169
14 0 0 196
15 0 0 225
16 0 0 256
17 0 0 289
18 0 0 324
2018 19 0 0 361
20 0 0 400
21 0 0 441
22 0 0 484
23 0 0 529
24 0 0 576
Total 300 0 0 4900
DIKETAHUI RUMUS
b a
0.000 0.000 y'=a+bx
Forecast Data Produksi Sumenep

Periode Forecast
x y'
25 0 0
26 0
27 0
28 0
29 0
30 0
2015
31 0
32 0
2015
33 0
34 0
35 0
36 0
37 0 0
38 0
39 0
40 0
41 0
42 0
2016
43 0
44 0
45 0
46 0
47 0
48 0
49 0 0
50 0
51 0
52 0
53 0
54 0
2017
55 0
56 0
57 0
58 0
59 0
60 0
61 0 0
62 0
63 0
64 0
65 0
66 0
2018
67 0
68 0
69 0
70 0
71 0
72 0
73 0 0
74 0
75 0
76 0
77 0
78 0
2019
79 0
80 0
81 0
82 0
2019
83 0
84 0
Smooting Bown Sumenep

Jumlah Produksi Metode Brown by SPSS
Jumlah Produksi
(dari Bank Data) Periode Forcast
(NPM 3 Anggota*10)
Jan-13 0 0 Jan-15
Feb-13 0 0 Feb-15
Mar-13 0 0 Mar-15
Apr-13 0 0 Apr-15
May-13 0 0 May-15
Jun-13 0 0 Jun-15
Jul-13 0 0 Jul-15
Aug-13 0 0 Aug-15
Sep-13 0 0 Sep-15
Oct-13 0 0 Oct-15
Nov-13 0 0 Nov-15
Dec-13 0 0 Dec-15
Jan-14 0 0 Jan-16
Feb-14 0 0 Feb-16
Mar-14 0 0 Mar-16
Apr-14 0 0 Apr-16
May-14 0 0 May-16
Jun-14 0 0 Jun-16
Jul-14 0 0 Jul-16
Aug-14 0 0 Aug-16
Sep-14 0 0 Sep-16
Oct-14 0 0 Oct-16
Nov-14 0 0 Nov-16
Dec-14 0 0 Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
MAPE
Smooting Holt Sumenep

Jumlah Produksi Metode Holt by SPSS
Jumlah Produksi
(dari Bank Data) Periode Forcast
(NPM 3 Anggota*10)
Jan-13 0 0 Jan-15
Feb-13 0 0 Feb-15
Mar-13 0 0 Mar-15
Apr-13 0 0 Apr-15
May-13 0 0 May-15
Jun-13 0 0 Jun-15
Jul-13 0 0 Jul-15
Aug-13 0 0 Aug-15
Sep-13 0 0 Sep-15
Oct-13 0 0 Oct-15
Nov-13 0 0 Nov-15
Dec-13 0 0 Dec-15
Jan-14 0 0 Jan-16
Feb-14 0 0 Feb-16
Mar-14 0 0 Mar-16
Apr-14 0 0 Apr-16
May-14 0 0 May-16
Jun-14 0 0 Jun-16
Jul-14 0 0 Jul-16
Aug-14 0 0 Aug-16
Sep-14 0 0 Sep-16
Oct-14 0 0 Oct-16
Nov-14 0 0 Nov-16
Dec-14 0 0 Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
MAPE
3.1 Peramalan Data Produksi dengan Menggunakan Metode Brown, dengan α = 0.2
Area Sumenep
Kapasitas SES DES

Periode
Produksi (S't) (S''t)
1 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
3 0 0 0
4 0 0 0
5 0 0 0
6 0 0 0
7 0 0 0
8 0 0 0
9 0 0 0
10 0 0 0
11 0 0 0
12 0 0 0
13 0 0 0
14 0 0 0
15 0 0 0
16 0 0 0
17 0 0 0
18 0 0 0
19 0 0 0
20 0 0 0
21 0 0 0
22 0 0 0
23 0 0 0
24 0 0 0
Total 0 0 0

Periode Forecast
x y'
1 0 0.000
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
2015
7 0
8 0
9 0
10 0
11 0
12 0
13 0 0.000
14 0
15 0
16 0
17 0
18 0
2016
19 0
20 0
21 0
22 0
23 0
24 0
25 0 0.000
26 0
2017
27 0
28 0
29 0
30 0
2017
31 0
32 0
33 0
34 0
35 0
36 0
37 0 0.000
38 0
39 0
40 0
41 0
42 0
2018
43 0
44 0
45 0
46 0
47 0
48 0
49 0 0.000
50 0
51 0
52 0
53 0
54 0
2019
55 0
56 0
57 0
58 0
59 0
60 0
Ft+m= St + bt.m
St = α.X t + (1 − α)(St −1 + b t −1 ) α
bt = β(St − St −1 ) + (1 − β)b t −1
3.4 Peramalan Data Produksi dengan Menggunakan Metode Holt, dengan α = 0.2 dan β = 0
Area Sumenep
Data Trend
Periode Produksi
Pemulusan (st) Pemulusan (bt)
1 0.00 0.00 0.00
2 0.00 0.00 0.00
3 0.00 0.00 0.00
4 0.00 0.00 0.00
5 0.00 0.00 0.00
6 0.00 0.00 0.00
7 0.00 0.00 0.00
8 0.00 0.00 0.00
9 0.00 0.00 0.00
10 0.00 0.00 0.00
11 0.00 0.00 0.00
12 0.00 0.00 0.00
13 0.00 0.00 0.00
14 0.00 0.00 0.00
15 0.00 0.00 0.00
16 0.00 0.00 0.00
17 0.00 0.00 0.00
18 0.00 0.00 0.00
19 0.00 0.00 0.00
20 0.00 0.00 0.00
21 0.00 0.00 0.00
22 0.00 0.00 0.00
23 0.00 0.00 0.00
24 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total 0.00 0.00 0.00

Periode Forecast
x y'
1 0 0.000
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
2015
7 0
8 0
9 0
10 0
11 0
12 0
13 0 0.000
14 0
15 0
16 0
17 0
18 0
2016
19 0
20 0
21 0
22 0
2016
23 0
24 0
25 0 0.000
26 0
27 0
28 0
29 0
30 0
2017
31 0
32 0
33 0
34 0
35 0
36 0
37 0 0.000
38 0
39 0
40 0
41 0
42 0
2018
43 0
44 0
45 0
46 0
47 0
48 0
49 0 0.000
50 0
51 0
52 0
53 0
54 0
2019
55 0
56 0
57 0
58 0
59 0
60 0
Sumenep
y' y-y' (y-y')2 |(y-y')/y*100%|

0.000 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.000 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.000 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.000 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.000 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.000 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.000 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.000 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.000 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.000 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.000 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.000 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.000 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.000 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.000 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.000 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.000 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.000 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.000 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.000 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.000 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.000 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.000 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0.000 0.00 0.00 #DIV/0!
0 0 0 #DIV/0!
SSE MSE MAPE

0.000 0 #DIV/0!
etode Brown by SPSS
Total Produksi
Data Forcast
802,665 11,838,969 257505
836,104 255691
869,543 270236
902,983 279926
936,422 300149
969,861 325159
1,003,300 338779
1,036,740 344260
1,070,179 359981
1,103,618 368245
1,137,057 400717
1,170,497 409608
1,203,936 16,654,220 439058
1,237,375 465301
1,270,814 486041
1,304,254 501650
1,337,693 531907
1,371,132 543521
1,404,571 569977
1,438,011 598671
1,471,450 651730
1,504,889 681763
1,538,328 738605
1,571,767 790209
1,605,207 21,469,470 802665
1,638,646 836104
1,672,085 869543
1,705,524 902983
1,738,964 936422
1,772,403 969861
1,805,842 1003300
1,839,281 1036740
1,872,721 1070179
1,906,160 1103618
1,939,599 1137057
1,973,038 1170497
2,006,478 26,284,722 1203936
2,039,917 1237375
2,073,356 1270814
2,106,795 1304254
2,140,235 1337693
2,173,674 1371132
2,207,113 1404571
2,240,552 1438011
2,273,992 1471450
2,307,431 1504889
2,340,870 1538328
2,374,309 1571767
2,407,748 31,099,971 1605207
2,441,188 1638646
2,474,627 1672085
2,508,066 1705524
2,541,505 1738964
2,574,945 1772403
2,608,384 1805842
2,641,823 1839281
2,675,262 1872721
2,708,702 1906160
2,742,141 1939599
2,775,580 1973038
1.711 2006478
2039917
2073356
2106795
Metode Holt by SPSS 2140235
Total Produksi
Data Forcast 2173674
807,957 12,052,530 2207113
843,670 2240552
879,383 2273992
915,095 2307431
950,808 2340870
986,521 2374309
1,022,234 2407748
1,057,947 2441188
1,093,660 2474627
1,129,372 2508066
1,165,085 2541505
1,200,798 2574945
1,236,511 17,195,176 2608384
1,272,224 2641823
1,307,936 2675262
1,343,649 2708702
1,379,362 2742141
1,415,075 2775580
1,450,788
1,486,501
1,522,213
1,557,926
1,593,639
1,629,352
1,665,065 22,337,823
1,700,778
1,736,490
1,772,203
1,807,916
1,843,629
1,879,342
1,915,054
1,950,767
1,986,480
2,022,193
2,057,906
2,093,619 27,480,470
2,129,331
2,165,044
2,200,757
2,236,470
2,272,183
2,307,896
2,343,608
2,379,321
2,415,034
2,450,747
2,486,460
2,522,172 32,623,116
2,557,885
2,593,598
2,629,311
2,665,024
2,700,737
2,736,449
2,772,162
2,807,875
2,843,588
2,879,301
2,915,014
1.397
wn, dengan α = 0.2
Nilai a Nilai b Nilai Ramalan Error
- - - -
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
MSE
SSE
0.2 β 0.8
de Holt, dengan α = 0.2 dan β = 0.8
Ramalan Square
eror
bila m=1 Error
0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
MSE 0.00
SSE 0
Regresi Linier
Data Produksi
Periode Produksi
Tahun
x y xy
1 0 0
2 0 0
3 0 0
4 0 0
5 0 0
6 0 0
2013 7 0 0
8 0 0
9 0 0
10 0 0
11 0 0
12 0 0
13 0 0
14 0 0
15 0 0
16 0 0
17 0 0
18 0 0
2018 19 0 0
20 0 0
21 0 0
22 0 0
23 0 0
24 0 0
Total 300 0 0
DIKETAHUI RUMUS
b a
0.000 0.000 y'=a+bx
Forecast Data Produksi Pasuruan

Periode Forecast
Total Produksi
x y'
25 0 0
26 0
27 0
28 0
29 0
30 0
31 0
32 0
33 0
34 0
35 0
36 0
37 0 0
38 0
39 0
40 0
41 0
42 0
43 0
44 0
45 0
46 0
47 0
48 0
49 0 0
50 0
51 0
52 0
53 0
54 0
55 0
56 0
57 0
58 0
59 0
60 0
61 0 0
62 0
63 0
64 0
65 0
66 0
67 0
68 0
69 0
70 0
71 0
72 0
73 0 0
74 0
75 0
76 0
77 0
78 0
79 0
80 0
81 0
82 0
83 0
84 0
Smooting Bown Pasuruan

Jumlah Produksi Jumlah Produksi
Periode
(dari Bank Data) (dari Bank Data)
246519 Jan-13 0 0
260276 Feb-13 0 0
273808 Mar-13 0 0
282394 Apr-13 0 0
299786 May-13 0 0
323768 Jun-13 0 0
339483 Jul-13 0 0
346201 Aug-13 0 0
359789 Sep-13 0 0
368731 Oct-13 0 0
397724 Nov-13 0 0
410674 Dec-13 0 0
437595 Jan-14 0 0
464522 Feb-14 0 0
486591 Mar-14 0 0
502941 Apr-14 0 0
530684 May-14 0 0
544983 Jun-14 0 0
569198 Jul-14 0 0
597508 Aug-14 0 0
647701 Sep-14 0 0
682404 Oct-14 0 0
736238 Nov-14 0 0
789212 Dec-14 0 0
807957
843670
879383
915095
950808
986521
1022234
1057947
1093660
1129372
1165085
1200798
1236511
1272224
1307936
1343649
1379362
1415075
1450788
1486501
1522213
1557926
1593639
1629352
1665065
1700778
1736490
1772203
1807916
1843629
1879342
1915054
1950767
1986480
2022193
2057906
2093619 MAPE
2129331
2165044
2200757 Smooting Holt Pasuruan
Jumlah Produksi
2236470 Jumlah Produksi Akhir / Data bank +
Periode
2272183 (dari Bank Data) (NPM 3
2307896 Jan-13 0 Anggota*10)
0
2343608 Feb-13 0 0
2379321 Mar-13 0 0
2415034 Apr-13 0 0
2450747 May-13 0 0
2486460 Jun-13 0 0
2522172 Jul-13 0 0
2557885 Aug-13 0 0
2593598 Sep-13 0 0
2629311 Oct-13 0 0
2665024 Nov-13 0 0
2700737 Dec-13 0 0
2736449 Jan-14 0 0
2772162 Feb-14 0 0
2807875 Mar-14 0 0
2843588 Apr-14 0 0
2879301 May-14 0 0
2915014 Jun-14 0 0
Jul-14 0 0
Aug-14 0 0
Sep-14 0 0
Oct-14 0 0
Nov-14 0 0
Dec-14 0 0
MAPE
3.1 Peramalan Data Produksi dengan Menggunakan Metode Brown, dengan α

Area Pasuruan
Square Kapasitas SES

Periode
Error Produksi (S't)
- 1 0 0
0 2 0 0
0 3 0 0
0 4 0 0
0 5 0 0
0 6 0 0
0 7 0 0
0 8 0 0
0 9 0 0
0 10 0 0
0 11 0 0
0 12 0 0
0 13 0 0
0 14 0 0
0 15 0 0
0 16 0 0
0 17 0 0
0 18 0 0
0 19 0 0
0 20 0 0
0 21 0 0
0 22 0 0
0 23 0 0
0 24 0 0
0 Total 0 0
0
0

Periode Forecast
Total Produksi
x y'
1 0 0.000
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
10 0
11 0
12 0
13 0 0.000
14 0
15 0
16 0
17 0
18 0
19 0
20 0
21 0
22 0
23 0
24 0
25 0 0.000
26 0
27 0
28 0
29 0
30 0
31 0
32 0
33 0
34 0
35 0
36 0
37 0 0.000
38 0
39 0
40 0
41 0
42 0
43 0
44 0
45 0
46 0
47 0
48 0
49 0 0.000
50 0
51 0
52 0
53 0
54 0
55 0
56 0
57 0
58 0
59 0
60 0
Ft+m= St + bt.m
St = α.X t + (1 − α)(St −1 + b t −1 )
bt = β(St − St −1 ) + (1 − β)b t −1
3.4 Peramalan Data Produksi dengan Menggunakan Metode Holt, deng
Area Pasuruan
Data
Periode Produksi
Pemulusan (st)
1 0.00 0.00
2 0.00 0.00
3 0.00 0.00
4 0.00 0.00
5 0.00 0.00
6 0.00 0.00
7 0.00 0.00
8 0.00 0.00
9 0.00 0.00
10 0.00 0.00
11 0.00 0.00
12 0.00 0.00
13 0.00 0.00
14 0.00 0.00
15 0.00 0.00
16 0.00 0.00
17 0.00 0.00
18 0.00 0.00
19 0.00 0.00
20 0.00 0.00
21 0.00 0.00
22 0.00 0.00
23 0.00 0.00
24 0.00 0.00
Total 0.00 0.00

Periode Forecast
Total Produksi
x y'
1 0 0.000
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
10 0
11 0
12 0
13 0 0.000
14 0
15 0
16 0
17 0
18 0
19 0
20 0
21 0
22 0
23 0
24 0
25 0 0.000
26 0
27 0
28 0
29 0
30 0
31 0
32 0
33 0
34 0
35 0
36 0
37 0 0.000
38 0
39 0
40 0
41 0
42 0
43 0
44 0
45 0
46 0
47 0
48 0
49 0 0.000
50 0
51 0
52 0
53 0
54 0
55 0
56 0
57 0
58 0
59 0
60 0
Data Produksi Pasuruan
x2 y' y-y' (y-y')2

1 0.000 0.00 0.00
4 0.000 0.00 0.00
9 0.000 0.00 0.00
16 0.000 0.00 0.00
25 0.000 0.00 0.00
36 0.000 0.00 0.00
49 0.000 0.00 0.00
64 0.000 0.00 0.00
81 0.000 0.00 0.00
100 0.000 0.00 0.00
121 0.000 0.00 0.00
144 0.000 0.00 0.00
169 0.000 0.00 0.00
196 0.000 0.00 0.00
225 0.000 0.00 0.00
256 0.000 0.00 0.00
289 0.000 0.00 0.00
324 0.000 0.00 0.00
361 0.000 0.00 0.00
400 0.000 0.00 0.00
441 0.000 0.00 0.00
484 0.000 0.00 0.00
529 0.000 0.00 0.00
576 0.000 0.00 0.00
4900 0 0 0
SSE MSE MAPE

0.000 0 #DIV/0!
Tahun
2015
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2019

Total Produksi
Jan-15 683,617 10,307,510
Feb-15 715,498
Mar-15 747,378
Apr-15 779,258
May-15 811,139
Jun-15 843,019
Jul-15 874,899
Aug-15 906,780
Sep-15 938,660
Oct-15 970,540
Nov-15 1,002,421
Dec-15 1,034,301
Jan-16 1,066,181 14,898,275
Feb-16 1,098,062
Mar-16 1,129,942
Apr-16 1,161,822
May-16 1,193,702
Jun-16 1,225,583
Jul-16 1,257,463
Aug-16 1,289,343
Sep-16 1,321,224
Oct-16 1,353,104
Nov-16 1,384,984
Dec-16 1,416,865
Jan-17 1,448,745 19,489,039
Feb-17 1,480,625
Mar-17 1,512,506
Apr-17 1,544,386
May-17 1,576,266
Jun-17 1,608,146
Jul-17 1,640,027
Aug-17 1,671,907
Sep-17 1,703,787
Oct-17 1,735,668
Nov-17 1,767,548
Dec-17 1,799,428
Jan-18 1,831,309 24,079,804
Feb-18 1,863,189
Mar-18 1,895,069
Apr-18 1,926,950
May-18 1,958,830
Jun-18 1,990,710
Jul-18 2,022,590
Aug-18 2,054,471
Sep-18 2,086,351
Oct-18 2,118,231
Nov-18 2,150,112
Dec-18 2,181,992
Jan-19 2,213,872 28,670,569
Feb-19 2,245,753
Mar-19 2,277,633
Apr-19 2,309,513
May-19 2,341,394
Jun-19 2,373,274
Jul-19 2,405,154
Aug-19 2,437,035
Sep-19 2,468,915
Oct-19 2,500,795
Nov-19 2,532,675
Dec-19 2,564,556
1.292
Metode Holt by SPSS

Total Produksi
Jan-15 682,929 10,263,474
Feb-15 714,267
Mar-15 745,605
Apr-15 776,944
May-15 808,282
Jun-15 839,620
Jul-15 870,959
Aug-15 902,297
Sep-15 933,635
Oct-15 964,974
Nov-15 996,312
Dec-15 1,027,650
Jan-16 1,058,989 14,776,191
Feb-16 1,090,327
Mar-16 1,121,665
Apr-16 1,153,003
May-16 1,184,342
Jun-16 1,215,680
Jul-16 1,247,018
Aug-16 1,278,357
Sep-16 1,309,695
Oct-16 1,341,033
Nov-16 1,372,372
Dec-16 1,403,710
Jan-17 1,435,048 19,288,910
Feb-17 1,466,387
Mar-17 1,497,725
Apr-17 1,529,063
May-17 1,560,402
Jun-17 1,591,740
Jul-17 1,623,078
Aug-17 1,654,417
Sep-17 1,685,755
Oct-17 1,717,093
Nov-17 1,748,432
Dec-17 1,779,770
Jan-18 1,811,108 23,801,630
Feb-18 1,842,447
Mar-18 1,873,785
Apr-18 1,905,123
May-18 1,936,462
Jun-18 1,967,800
Jul-18 1,999,138
Aug-18 2,030,477
Sep-18 2,061,815
Oct-18 2,093,153
Nov-18 2,124,492
Dec-18 2,155,830
Jan-19 2,187,168 28,314,350
Feb-19 2,218,507
Mar-19 2,249,845
Apr-19 2,281,183
May-19 2,312,522
Jun-19 2,343,860
Jul-19 2,375,198
Aug-19 2,406,537
Sep-19 2,437,875
Oct-19 2,469,213
Nov-19 2,500,552
Dec-19 2,531,890
1.155
nggunakan Metode Brown, dengan α = 0.2
DES
Nilai a Nilai b Nilai Ramalan
(S''t)
0 - - -
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
MSE
SSE
Tahun
2015
2016
2017
2017
2018
2019
α 0.2 β 0.8
Menggunakan Metode Holt, dengan α = 0.2 dan β = 0.8
Trend Ramalan Square

eror
Pemulusan (bt) bila m=1 Error
0.00
0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
MSE 0.00
SSE 0
Tahun
2015
2016
2016
2017
2018
2019
|(y-y')/y*100%|
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
237252 233010
241905 244735
253300 254525
276164 275282
277869 278778
287395 288051
293644 294346
305582 305556
312707 312936
344493 342048
368074 365945
386759 385837
402008 402085
407808 409266
423754 424298
440143 440114
450116 450642
475961 474845
514866 511821
528048 527792
553850 553401
572231 572475
610945 609161
657712 654526
683617 682929
715498 714267
747378 745605
779258 776944
811139 808282
843019 839620
874899 870959
906780 902297
938660 933635
970540 964974
1002421 996312
1034301 1027650
1066181 1058989
1098062 1090327
1129942 1121665
1161822 1153003
1193702 1184342
1225583 1215680
1257463 1247018
1289343 1278357
1321224 1309695
1353104 1341033
1384984 1372372
1416865 1403710
1448745 1435048
1480625 1466387
1512506 1497725
1544386 1529063
1576266 1560402
1608146 1591740
1640027 1623078
1671907 1654417
1703787 1685755
1735668 1717093
1767548 1748432
1799428 1779770
1831309 1811108
1863189 1842447
1895069 1873785
1926950 1905123
1958830 1936462
1990710 1967800
2022590 1999138
2054471 2030477
2086351 2061815
2118231 2093153
2150112 2124492
2181992 2155830
2213872 2187168
2245753 2218507
2277633 2249845
2309513 2281183
2341394 2312522
2373274 2343860
2405154 2375198
2437035 2406537
2468915 2437875
2500795 2469213
2532675 2500552
2564556 2531890
Square
Error
Error
- -
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
MSE 0
SSE 0
RESUME EROR DARI MASING MASING METODE PERAMALAN
MAPE Forcast Produksi

Metode Peramalan
Bondowoso Sumenep Pasuruan
Regresi Linier 0.069 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Smooting Brown 1.122 1.711 1.292
Smooting Holt 0.747 1.397 1.155
Nilai terkecil: 0.069 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

Metode yang dipakai : Regresi Linier
RESUME FORCAST DARI MASING MASING METODE PERAMALAN
Forcast Produksi
Metode Peramalan
Bondowoso Sumenep Pasuruan
Regresi Linier 77,606,322 0 0
Smooting Brown 98,723,101 0 0
Smooting Holt 101,927,762 0 0
Nilai terkecil: 77,606,322 0 0

Metode yang dipakai : Regresi Linier
SING METODE PERAMALAN
MAPE Forcast Permintaan

Bondowoso Bojonegoro Bangkalan
0.197 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
1.758 1.491 1.424
1.422 1.491 1.185
0.197 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
MASING METODE PERAMALAN
Forcast Permintaan
Bondowoso Bojonegoro Bangkalan
123,376,281 0 0
186,454,659 0 0
210,905,854 0 0
123,376,281 0 0
Data Produksi + Ongkos Produksi + Ongkos Distribusi
Ongkos Produksi/Unit Ongkos Distribusi/unit/km

Lokasi Pesaing Jumlah Produksi ( Unit ) (Rp) (Rp)
Gresik 9,414,522 1,100,000 2,500
Sumenep 0 1,000,000 2,000
Pasuruan 0 1,000,000 2,000
Data Permintaan
Lokasi Tujuan Jumlah Permintaan ( Unit )
Nganjuk 13,665,530
Bojonegoro 0
Bangkalan 0
1. Data Pesaing
Harga Bangunan m2 (RP)

Biaya Produksi / Biaya Distribusi/ Harga Tanah
No Kabupaten/ Kota unit (Rp) unit/km (Rp) m2 (Rp) Bangunan
Terbuka
1 Gresik 1,100,000 2,500 1,200,000 3,000,000

2 Sumenep 1,000,000 2,000 350,000 875,000
3 Pasuruan 1,000,000 2,000 800,000 2,000,000
2. Data Pasar/ Tujuan
Jumlah Permintaan
Lokasi Tujuan (Unit )
Nganjuk 13,665,530
Bojonegoro 0
Bangkalan 0
3. Bakal Lokasi Pabrik

a. Market
Potensial
Market Potensial = total permintaan pasar – total produksi pesaing
Market
Demand Supply (Produksi Market
Tahun Potensial
(Permintaan) (unit) Pesaing) (unit) Potensial (unit) (%)
2015 13,665,530 9,414,522 4,251,008 68.9%

2016 19,170,393 12,467,893 6,702,500 65.0%
2017 24,675,256 15,521,264 9,153,992 62.9%
2018 30,180,119 18,574,635 11,605,484 61.5%
2019 35,684,982 21,628,006 14,056,976 60.6%
b. Kapasitas Produksi Terpasang (KPT)

KPT = market share x market potensial
Market Potensial
Tahun Market Share (%) KPT
(unit)
2015 4,251,008 26% 1,105,262

2016 6,702,500 26% 1,742,650
2017 9,153,992 26% 2,380,038
2018 11,605,484 26% 3,017,426
2019 14,056,976 26% 3,654,814
c. Data Bakal Lokasi
Ongkos
Kapasitas Produksi Ongkos
Bakal Lokasi Distribusi
/Tahun ( unit ) Produksi /Unit /Unit/km
Jombang 1,105,262 1,000,000 2,000

Bondowoso 1,105,262 1,000,000 2,000
4. Matriks Jarak
a. Matriks jarak dari lokasi pesaing ke lokasi pasar/tujuan (km)
Tujuan / Pasar ( KM)

Sumber /pesaing
Nganjuk Bojonegoro Bangkalan
Gresik 137 90 46
Sumenep 294 283 147
Pasuruan 131 168 86
b. Matriks jarak dari bakal lokasi ke lokasi pasar/tujuan (km)
Tujuan / Pasar (km )

Bakal Lokasi Nganjuk Bojonegoro Bangkalan
1 2 3
Jombang 40 85 107
Bondowoso 362 299 219
5. Matriks Ongkos
a. Matriks ongkos dari lokasi pesaing ke lokasi pasar/tujuan (km)
Tujuan Pasar
Nganjuk Bojonegoro
Sumber /Pesaing
Ongkos Ongkos
Ongkos Produksi Ongkos Distribusi Total Ongkos Produksi Distribusi
Gresik 1,100,000 342,500 1,442,500 1,100,000 225,000
Sumenep 1,000,000 588,000 1,588,000 1,000,000 566,000
Pasuruan 1,000,000 262,000 1,262,000 1,000,000 336,000
b. Matriks ongkos dari bakal lokasi ke lokasi pasar/tujuan (km)
Tujuan Pasar
Nganjuk Bojonegoro
Bakal Lokasi
Ongkos Ongkos
Ongkos Produksi Ongkos Distribusi Total Ongkos Produksi Distribusi
Jombang 1,000,000 80,000 1,080,000 1,000,000 170,000
Bondowoso 1,000,000 724,000 1,724,000 1,000,000 598,000
Harga Bangunan m2 (RP)
Upah
Tenaga Market share Efesiensi
Bangunan Kerja/Hari (%) mesin (%)
Tertutup (Rp)
5,250,000 109,750
1,531,250 54,500 26 84
3,500,000 109,500
Rencana Penjualan
Peluang
Permintaan
Tahun Penawaran (B)
(A) (C = A-B)
2014 13,665,530 267,838 718,806

2015 1,647,602 356,218 1,291,384
2016 2,308,562 444,598 1,863,964
2017 2,969,522 532,977 2,436,545
2018 3,630,480 621,357 3,009,123
Pasar
Bojonegoro Bangkalan
Ongkos Ongkos
Total Ongkos Produksi Distribusi Total Ongkos
1,325,000 1,100,000 115,000 1,215,000
1,566,000 1,000,000 294,000 1,294,000
1,336,000 1,000,000 172,000 1,172,000
2,652,000
Pasar
Bojonegoro Bangkalan
Ongkos Ongkos
Total Ongkos Produksi Distribusi Total Ongkos
1,170,000 1,000,000 214,000 1,214,000
1,598,000 1,000,000 438,000 1,438,000
6. Menentukan Lokasi dengan metode transportasi NCR
Data Awal
Tujuan / Pasar
Sumber Kapasitas Produksi
Nganjuk Bojonegoro Bangkalan P1 P2 P3 P4
1.44 1.33 1.22 9,414,522 0.00 0.23 - - -
Gresik
9,414,522
1.59 1.57 1.29 - - 0.00 0.29 0.29 0.27 0.27
Sumenep
0 0
1.26 1.34 1.17 - 0.00 0.16 0.16 0.16 -
Pasuruan
0
Demand 13,665,530 0 0
4,251,008 0 0
4,251,008
P1 0.33 0.24 0.12

P2 0.33 0.24 0.12
P3 - 0.24 0.12
P4 - 0.24 0.12
Tujuan / Pasar
Sumber Kapasitas Produksi
Nganjuk Bojonegoro Bangkalan P1 P2 P3 P4
1.08 1.17 1.21 1,105,262 1105262.06 0.04 - - -
Jombang
0
1.72 1.60 1.44 1,105,262 1105262.06 0.16 0.16
Bondowoso
0
Demand 4,251,008 0 0
0
0
P1 - 0.43 0.22
P2 - 0.43 1.44
P3 -
P4 -
Kesimpulan:
Dari hasil perhitungan di atas, diketahui bahwa total biaya (nilai Z) dari Pabrik Jombang adalah
yang terkecil di antara keduanya. Dengan demikian, maka pihak manajemen PT.
SPM disarankan untuk memilih Pabrik Bondowoso sebagai lokasi untuk mendirikan
pabriknya yang baru.
Z= ( 9,414,522.49 X 1.44 ) + ( - x 1.59 ) + ( - x 1.34 ) +
Z= 13580448.6874348 + 0 + - + 0
Z= 13,580,448.69
Ket: P= Pinalty --> selisih ongkos terbesar dengan terkecil
a. Untuk alternatif lokasi pabrik di Jombang

Z= ( - X 1.21 )
Z= -
b. Untuk alternatif lokasi pabrik di Bondowoso

Z= ( - X 1.44 )
Z= -
-
( - x 1.29 )
Nama obyek : Rak Buku
Nomor peta : OPC-01
Dipetakan oleh : TI-15
Tanggal dipetakan : Juni 2018
(100) Lingkaran 7 (2) (90) Lingkaran 6 (2) (80) Lingkaran 5 (1) (70) Lingkaran 4 (1)
Kayu Kayu Kayu Kayu
(ø23x1) cm (ø33x1) cm (ø39x1) cm (ø39x1) cm
2' Diukur 2' Diukur 2' Diukur 2'

O-36
O-1 Mistar+Pensil+Meja O-32
O-1 Mistar+Pensil+Meja O-28 Mistar+Pensil+Meja
0% Fabrikasi 0% Fabrikasi 0% Fabrikasi 0%
5' Dipotong 5' Dipotong 5' Dipotong 5'

O-37
O-2 O-33
O-2 O-29
5% Mesin Potong 5% Mesin Potong 5% Mesin Potong 5%
4' Diserut 4' Diserut 4' Diserut 4'

O-38
O-3 O-35
O-3 O-30
1% Mesin Serut 1% Mesin Serut 1% Mesin Serut 1%
2' Dilubangi
O-31
2% Mesin Bor
RINGKASAN
Kegiatan Jumlah Waktu (mnt)
47
1
Total 48
PETA PROSES OPERASI
(70) Lingkaran 4 (1) (60) Lingkaran 3 (2) (50) Lingkaran 2 (2) (40) Lingkaran 1 (2)
Kayu Kayu Kayu
(ø49x1) cm (ø55x1) cm (ø65x1) cm
Diukur 2' Diukur 2' Diukur 2'

O-25 Mistar+Pensil+Meja O-21 Mistar+Pensil+Meja O-17 Mistar+Pensil+Meja O-13
Fabrikasi 0% Fabrikasi 0% Fabrikasi 0%
Dipotong 5' Dipotong 5' Dipotong 5'

O-26 O-22 O-18 O-14
Mesin Potong 5% Mesin Potong 5% Mesin Potong 5%
Diserut 4' Diserut 4' Diserut 4'

O-27 O-23 O-19 O-15
Mesin Serut 1% Mesin Serut 1% Mesin Serut 1%
2' Dilubangi 2' Dilubangi 2'

O-24 O-20 O-16
2% Mesin Bor 2% Mesin Bor 2%
(30) Kaki 3 (1) (20) 20 Kaki 2 (1) (10) Kaki 1 (1)
Kayu Kayu Kayu
(90x30x1) cm (90x30x1) cm (90x30x1) cm
Diukur 2' Diukur 2' Diukur 2'

Mistar+Pensil+Meja O-9 Mistar+Pensil+Meja O-5 Mistar+Pensil+Meja O-1
Fabrikasi 0% Fabrikasi 0% Fabrikasi 0%
Dipotong 5' Dipotong 5' Dipotong 5'

O-10 O-6 O-2
Mesin Potong 5% Mesin Potong 5% Mesin Potong 5%
Diserut 4' Diserut 4' Diserut 4'

O-11 O-7 O-3
Mesin Serut 1% Mesin Serut 1% Mesin Serut 1%
Dilubangi 2' Dilubangi 2' Dilubangi 2'

O-12 O-8 O-4
Mesin Bor 2% Mesin Bor 2% Mesin Bor 2%
Assembly 1
Engsel (2)
10
O-39
0%
Assembly 2
Engsel (2)
10
O-40
0%
Assembly 3
Sekrup 2cm (2)
3
O-41
0%
Assembly 4
Sekrup 2cm (5) + sekat (2)
12
O-42
0%
Assembly 5
5
O-43
0%
Assembly 6
1
O-44
0%
Assembly 7
3
O-45
0%
Assembly 8
1'
O-46
0%
Assembly 9
1'
O-47
0%
1'
I-1
0%
Diukur
Mistar+Pensil+Meja
Fabrikasi
Dipotong
Mesin Potong
Diserut
Mesin Serut
Dilubangi
Mesin Bor
Rakit kaki 1 dan 2
Meja Assembling + Obeng
Pasang kaki 3 pada rakitan
Pasang lingkaran 1 pd rakitan

Meja Assembling
Meja Assembling
Meja Assembling
Pemeriksaan akhir
Meja Assembling
7. Menentukan Kapasitas Produksi Terpasang
a. Kapasitas Produksi Terpasang/Tahun
Kapasitas Produksi
Tahun Terpasang (Unit)
2015 1,105,262
2016 1,742,650
2017 2,380,038
2018 3,017,426
2019 3,654,814
b. Perhitungan KPT/jam
KPT/jam = KPT max / Jam kerja per tahun
KPT max = nilai KPT/tahun tertinggi di antara 5 tahun perhitungan
Jam kerja = 8 jam per hari x 22 hari perbulan x 12 bulan per tahun = 2112 jam
Nilai KPT/jam selalu dibulatkan ke atas
KPT/tahun tertinggi adalah KPT tahun ke-5, yaitu sebesar

3,654,814 unit
Maka:
KPT/jam =3.654.814 unit / 2112 jam
1,730.50 unit
1,731 unit 731
ROUTING SHEET RAK BUKU
731
Produksi Mesin/jam
No. Operasi
% Scrapt
Deskripsi Mesin/Alat
a b
Kaki 1
Diukur Mistar+Pensil+Meja Fabrikasi 30.0 0
Dipotong Mesin Potong 12.0 5
10
Diserut Mesin Serut 15.0 1
Dilubangi Mesin Bor 30.0 2
Kaki 2
20
Kaki 3
30
Lingkaran 1 (2)
40
Lingkaran 2 (2)
50
Lingkaran 3 (2)
60
Lingkaran 4
70 Dipotong Mesin Potong 12.0 5
Lingkaran 5
80
Lingkaran 6 (2)
Lingkaran 7 (2)
Assembling I
110 Rakit kaki 1 dengan 2 MejaAssembling + Obeng 6.0 0
Assembling II
120 Pasang kaki 3 pada rakitan MejaAssembling + Obeng 6.0 0
Assembling III
130 Pasang lingkaran 1 pada rakitan MejaAssembling + Obeng 20.0 0
Assembling IV
Assembling V
Assembling VI
160 Pasang lingkaran 4 pada rakitan Meja Assembling 60.0 0
Assembling VII
Assembling VIII
Assembling IX
Pemeriksaan akhir Meja Assembling 60.0 0
Total
no Kotak biru hijau Jumlah p l

1 Meja Fabrikasi 304 2,5 2
2 Mesin Potong 745 2 1
3 Mesin Serut 565 2 1
4 Mesin Bor 221 2 1
5 Meja Assembling 517 2,5 2,5
2,352
Efisiensi mesin (91 %)
Keb. Mesin teoritis
Keb. Mesin aktual

Bahan disiapkan
Bahan diminta
c d f = 91%xd g=f/a h=pemb. g
1,555.1 1,555.1 1,259.6 42.0 42

1,477.3 1,555.1 1,259.6 105.0 105
1,462.5 1,477.3 1,196.6 79.8 80
1,433.3 1,462.5 1,184.7 39.5 40
1,433.3 1,433.3 1,161.0 38.7 39

1,361.6 1,433.3 1,161.0 96.7 97
1,348.0 1,361.6 1,102.9 73.5 74
1,321.0 1,348.0 1,091.9 36.4 37
1,321.0 1,321.0 1,070.0 35.7 36

1,255.0 1,321.0 1,070.0 89.2 90
1,242.4 1,255.0 1,016.5 67.8 68
1,217.6 1,242.4 1,006.4 33.5 34
1,217.6 1,217.6 986.2 32.9 33

1,156.7 1,217.6 986.2 82.2 83
1,145.1 1,156.7 936.9 62.5 63
1,122.2 1,145.1 927.6 30.9 31
1,122.2 1,122.2 909.0 30.3 31

1,066.1 1,122.2 909.0 75.8 76
1,055.5 1,066.1 863.6 57.6 58
1,034.4 1,055.5 854.9 28.5 29
1,034.4 1,034.4 837.8 27.9 28

982.6 1,034.4 837.8 69.8 70
972.8 982.6 795.9 53.1 54
953.4 972.8 788.0 26.3 27
953.4 953.4 772.2 25.7 26

905.7 953.4 772.2 64.4 65
896.6 905.7 733.6 48.9 49
896.6 896.6 726.3 24.2 25

851.8 896.6 726.3 60.5 61
843.3 851.8 690.0 46.0 46
826.4 843.3 683.1 22.8 23
826.4 826.4 669.4 22.3 23

785.1 826.4 669.4 55.8 56
777.2 785.1 635.9 42.4 43
777.2 777.2 629.6 21.0 21

738.4 777.2 629.6 42.0 42
731.0 738.4 598.1 29.9 30
731.0 731.0 665.2 110.9 111
731.0 731.0 665.2 110.9 111

731.0 731.0 665.2 33.3 34
731.0 731.0 665.2 133.0 134
731.0 731.0 665.2 44.3 45
731.0 731.0 665.2 11.1 12
731.0 731.0 665.2 33.3 34
731.0 731.0 665.2 11.1 12
731.0 731.0 665.2 11.1 12

731.0 731.0 665.2 11.1 12
2,331 2,352
MULTI PROUDUCT PROCES CHART (MPPC)
Fabrikasi
Jml. Mesin
Departemen Komponen/Peralatan
teoritis
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Receiving
Mistar+Pensil+Meja Fabrikasi
42 39 36 33 31 28 26 25 23 21 181
FABRIKASI
Mesin Potong
105 97 90 83 76 70 65 61 56 42 451
Mesin Serut
80 74 68 63 58 54 49 46 43 30 343
Mesin Bor
40 37 34 31 29 27 0 23 0 0 171
Storage
Receiving
ASSEMBLING
MejaAssembling + Obeng
111
Meja Assembling
Storage
1,146
Total
PC)
Jml. Mesin Total Mesin

teoritis aktual
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
181
451
343
171
469 469
111 34 134 45 34
48 48
12 12 12 12
517 1,663
A. LUAS LANTAI GUDANG BAHAN BAKU
1. LUAS LANTAI GUDANG BAHAN BAKU UTAMA
Ukuran Paka
Kode
Nama Komponen Potongan Assembling Type Bahan
Komponen
D
10 Kaki 1 1 Kayu
20 Kaki 2 1 Kayu
30 Kaki 3 1 Kayu
40 Lingkaran 1 2 Kayu 0.65
2. LUAS LANTAI GUDANG BAHAN BAKU TAMBAHAN
Ukuran Paka
Kode
Nama Komponen Potongan Assembling Type Bahan
Komponen
D
111 Sekat 5 Kayu

112 Sekrup 14 Besi
113 Engsel 4 Besi
LUAS LANTAI RECEIVING TOTAL = LUAS LANTAI GUDANG BAHAN BAKU UTAMA + LUAS LANTAI GUDANG BA
MAKA
LUAS LANTAI RECEIVING TOTAL = 6086.2104 m2 x 18.6 m2
LUAS LANTAI RECEIVING TOTAL = 6,104.81 m2
0.610481040 HA
6104.8104
Ukuran Pakai ( m )
Produk/jam Volume Unit Volume
Unit 5 Hari (Unit)
(Unit) (m³) Kebutuhan (m³)
P L T
0.9 0.3 0.01 1,555 54,427 0.0027 146.95
0.9 0.3 0.01 1,433 50,165 0.0027 135.45
0.9 0.3 0.01 1,321 46,236 0.0027 124.84
0.01 1,218 42,616 0.0033 141.47
0.01 1,122 39,278 0.0024 93.36
0.01 1,034 36,203 0.0019 68.30
0.01 953 33,368 0.0012 39.88
0.01 897 31,382 0.0012 37.50
0.01 826 28,925 0.0009 24.75
0.01 738 25,843 0.0004 10.74
Ukuran Pakai ( m )
Unit/jam
Unit Sedia Produk/jam (Unit) Unit 5 Hari (Unit)
(Unit)
P L T
0.05 0.05 0.05 5 8,655 1,731 60,585

0.07 0.05 0.03 50 24,234 485 16,964
0.03 0.05 0.02 4 6,924 1,731 60,585
AS LANTAI GUDANG BAHAN BAKU TAMBAHAN

Ukuran Tumpukan
D P L T
0.9 35 0.3 30 0.01 200
0.9 30 0.3 35 0.01 200
0.9 25 0.3 30 0.01 200
0.65 0.65 25 0.65 20 0.01 200
0.55 0.55 25 0.55 24 0.01 200
0.49 0.49 25 0.49 25 0.01 200
0.39 0.39 23 0.39 24 0.01 200
0.39 0.39 22 0.39 20 0.01 200
0.33 0.33 19 0.33 19 0.01 200
0.23 0.23 20 0.23 18 0.01 200
60 50
84.84 70.7
Ukuran Rak
Volume Unit Volume
(m³) Kebutuhan (m³)
D P L
0.0001 7.6 0.05 10 0.05 90

0.0001 1.8 0.07 4 0.05 75
0.0000 1.8 0.03 10 0.05 90
Luas Lantai Allow 300%
Total Luas (m²)
(m²) (m²)
283.5000 850.500 1,134.000

146.9531
283.5000 850.500 1,134.000
135.4452
202.5000 607.500 810.000
124.8385
211.2500 633.750 845.000
141.4689
181.5000 544.500 726.000
93.3565
150.0625 450.188 600.250
68.2961
83.9592 251.878 335.837
39.8766
66.9240 200.772 267.696
37.5039
39.3129 117.939 157.252
24.7492
19.0440 57.132 76.176
10.7416
LUAS TOTAL 6,086
3000 55.1643471819 3043.1052

5998.188 78.014167944 6,086
Luas Lantai Allaw 300%

Total Luas (m²)
(m²) (m²)
T
0.05 95 2.25000 6.75 9.000 7.573

0.03 80 1.05000 3.15 4.200 1.781
0.02 85 1.35000 4.05 5.400 1.818
LUAS TOTAL 18.60
3 1 3 3.049590136 9.3
567 LUAS OK
567.00000 LUAS OK
405.00000 LUAS OK
422.50000 LUAS OK
363.00000 LUAS OK
300.12500 LUAS OK
167.91840 LUAS OK
133.84800 LUAS OK
78.62580 LUAS OK
38.08800 LUAS OK
10.688 LUAS OK
2.520 LUAS OK
2.295 LUAS OK
B. LUAS LANTAI PRODUKSI
10. Kaki 1
Deskripsi Nama mesin/Alat Jumlah Mesin (Unit)
Diukur Mistar+Pensil+Meja Fabrikasi 42

Dipotong Mesin Potong 105
Diserut Mesin Serut 80
Dilubangi Mesin Bor 40
20. Kaki 2

30. Kaki 3

40. Lingkaran 1 (2)

50. Lingkaran 2 (2)

60. Lingkaran 3 (2)

70. Lingkaran 4

80. Lingkaran 5

90. Lingkaran 6 (2)

100. Lingkaran 7 (2)

110. Assembling I
Rakit kaki 1 dengan 2 MejaAssembling + Obeng 111
120. Assembling II
Pasang kaki 3 pada MejaAssembling + Obeng 111

rakitan
130. Assembling III
Pasang lingkaran 1 pada MejaAssembling + Obeng 34

rakitan
140. Assembling IV

rakitan
150. Assembling V

rakitan
rakitan
160. Assembling VI
Pasang lingkaran 4 pada Meja Assembling 12

rakitan
170. Assembling VII

rakitan
180. Assembling VIII

rakitan
190. Assembling IX

rakitan
Pemeriksaan akhir Meja Assembling 12

No. Departement luas
10 Kaki 1 4,620
20 Kaki 2 4,277
2 30 Kaki 3 3,948
3 40 Lingkaran 1 3,633
9 100 Lingkaran 7 1,743
110 Assembling I 4,856
120 Assembling II 4,856
130 Assembling III 1,488
140 Assembling IV 5,863
150 Assembling V 1,969
160 Assembling VI 525
170 Assembling VII 1,488
180 Assembling VIII 525
190 Assembling IX 1,050
TOTAL 54,693
Ukuran Mesin Luas Mesin Luas Total Toleransi Luas (m²) Allow (%) Luas (m²)
P L (m²) (m²) (%)
2.5 2 5 210 100 630 300 630
2 1 2 210 100 630 300 630
2 1 2 160 100 480 300 480
2 1 2 80 100 240 300 240
LUAS TOTAL
P L (m²) (m²) (%)
2.5 2 5 195 300 585 300 585
2 1 2 194 300 582 300 582
2 1 2 148 300 444 300 444
2 1 2 74 300 222 300 222
LUAS TOTAL
P L (m²) (m²) (%)
2.5 2 5 180 300 540 300 540
2 1 2 180 300 540 300 540
2 1 2 136 300 408 300 408
2 1 2 68 300 204 300 204
LUAS TOTAL
P L (m²) (m²) (%)
2.5 2 5 165 300 495 300 495
2 1 2 166 300 498 300 498
2 1 2 126 300 378 300 378
2 1 2 62 300 186 300 186
LUAS TOTAL
P L (m²) (m²) (%)
2.5 2 5 155 300 465 300 465
2 1 2 152 300 456 300 456
2 1 2 116 300 348 300 348
2 1 2 58 300 174 300 174
LUAS TOTAL
P L (m²) (m²) (%)
2.5 2 5 140 300 420 300 420
2 1 2 140 300 420 300 420
2 1 2 108 300 324 300 324
2 1 2 54 300 162 300 162
LUAS TOTAL
P L (m²) (m²) (%)
2.5 2 5 130 300 390 300 390
2 1 2 130 300 390 300 390
2 1 2 98 300 294 300 294
LUAS TOTAL
P L (m²) (m²) (%)
2.5 2 5 125 300 375 300 375
2 1 2 122 300 366 300 366
2 1 2 92 300 276 300 276
2 1 2 46 300 138 300 138
LUAS TOTAL
P L (m²) (m²) (%)
2.5 2 5 115 300 345 300 345
2 1 2 112 300 336 300 336
2 1 2 86 300 258 300 258
LUAS TOTAL
P L (m²) (m²) (%)
2.5 2 5 105 300 315 300 315
2 1 2 84 300 252 300 252
2 1 2 60 300 180 300 180
LUAS TOTAL
P L (m²) (m²) (%)
2.5 2.5 6.25 694 300 2,081 300 2,081
LUAS TOTAL
P L (m²) (m²) (%)
2.5 2.5 6.25 694 300 2,081 300 2,081
LUAS TOTAL
P L (m²) (m²) (%)
2.5 2.5 6.25 213 300 638 300 638
LUAS TOTAL
P L (m²) (m²) (%)
2.5 2.5 6.25 838 300 2,513 300 2,513
LUAS TOTAL
P L (m²) (m²) (%)
2.5 2.5 6.25 281 300 844 300 844

2.5 2.5 6.25 281 300 844 300 844
LUAS TOTAL
P L (m²) (m²) (%)
2.5 2.5 6.25 75 300 225 300 225
LUAS TOTAL
P L (m²) (m²) (%)
2.5 2.5 6.25 213 300 638 300 638
LUAS TOTAL
P L (m²) (m²) (%)
2.5 2.5 6.25 75 300 225 300 225
LUAS TOTAL
P L (m²) (m²) (%)
2.5 2.5 6.25 75 300 225 300 225
2.5 2.5 6.25 75 301 225 300 225
LUAS TOTAL
luas Sisi s x s (cm) luas (cm) Luas Kotak p l luas
0.231 0.480625 48.06245936 2310 2200 55 40 4400
0.21385 0.462439 46.24391852 2138.5 2200 55 40 4400
0.1974 0.444297 44.42971978 1974 2000 50 40 4000
0.18165 0.426204 42.62041764 1816.5 1800 45 40 3600
0.16835 0.410305 41.03047648 1683.5 1600 40 40 3200
0.1547 0.393319 39.33192088 1547 1600 40 40 3200
0.1253 0.353977 35.39774004 1253 1600 40 40 3200
0.13475 0.367083 36.70830969 1347.5 1200 30 40 2400
0.10955 0.330983 33.09833833 1095.5 1000 25 40 2000
0.08715 0.295212 29.52117884 871.5 800 20 40 1600
0.242813 0.49276 49.27600836 2428.125 2400 60 40 4800
0.242813 0.49276 49.27600836 2428.125 2400 60 40 4800
0.074375 0.272718 27.27178029 743.75 800 20 40 1600
0.293125 0.54141 54.14101957 2931.25 2800 70 40 5600
0.098438 0.313748 31.374751 984.375 1000 25 40 2000
0.02625 0.162019 16.20185175 262.5 240 6 40 480
0.074375 0.272718 27.27178029 743.75 800 20 40 1600
0.02625 0.162019 16.20185175 262.5 240 6 40 480
0.0525 0.229129 22.91287847 525 600 15 40 1200
2.734638 1.653674 27280
Total Luas (m²)
1,470
1,470
1,120
560
4,620
Total Luas (m²)
1,365
1,358
1,036
518
4,277
Total Luas (m²)
1,260
1,260
952
476
3,948
Total Luas (m²)
1,155
1,162
882
434
3,633
Total Luas (m²)
1,085
1,064
812
406
3,367
Total Luas (m²)
980
980
756
378
3,094
Total Luas (m²)
910
910
686
2,506
Total Luas (m²)
875
854
644
322
2,695
Total Luas (m²)
805
784
602
2,191
Total Luas (m²)
735
588
420
1,743
Total Luas (m²)
4,856
4,856
Total Luas (m²)
4,856
4,856
Total Luas (m²)
1,488
1,488
Total Luas (m²)
5,863
5,863
Total Luas (m²)
1,969
1,969
1,969
Total Luas (m²)
525
525
Total Luas (m²)
1,488
1,488
Total Luas (m²)
525
525
Total Luas (m²)
525
525
1,050
luas p l
4398.6712 77.77 56.56
4398.6712 77.77 56.56
3998.792 70.7 56.56
3598.9128 63.63 56.56 23 56.56 1300.88 40 56.56
3199.0336 56.56 56.56
3199.0336 56.56 56.56
3199.0336 56.56 56.56 2.83 160.0648 3.90402
2399.2752 42.42 56.56 14.14 x 56.56 28.28x56.56
1999.396 35.35 56.56
1599.5168 28.28 56.56 1316.717
4798.5504 84.84 56.56
4798.5504 84.84 56.56
1599.5168 28.28 56.56
5598.3088 98.98 56.56
1999.396 35.35 56.56
479.85504 8.484 56.56
1599.5168 28.28 56.56
479.85504 8.484 56.56
1199.6376 21.21 56.56
2262.4
1082.558 96.57078
C. LUAS LANTAI GUDANG BARANG JADI ( SHIPPING )
Ukuran Produk Ukuran Tump

Volume Produk 2 Jumlah Produk Jumlah Produk Volume Produk Tinggi Tumpukan
Nama Komponen
P (m) L (m) T (m) (m³) Hari (Unit) (Unit) 2 hari (Unit) Total (m³) Maksimal (unit) P
Produk jadi 0.7 0.7 0.90 0.44 15,351 1 15,351 6,770 1 0.7 55
Ukuran Tumpukan
Luas Lantai Allow 300% Total Luas (m²
L T (m²)
0.7 55 0.90 10 1,482 4,447 5,929 6,769.791 13,340.250 LUAS OK
60 50 3000 54.4472 2964.5

LUAS TOTAL 5,929
84.84 70.7 5998.19 77 5,929
D. LUAS LANTAI PERKANTORAN
No. Nama Ruangan Jumlah
1 Ruang Direktur 1
2 Ruang Wakil Direktur 1
3 Ruang Manager Finance 1
4 Ruang Manager HRD & GA 1
5 Ruang Manager Production & QC 1
g Ruang Manager Pemasaran & Penjualan 1
7 Ruang Manager Supplaycain & Logistic Control 1
8 Ruang Ka.Bag Finance + Staf 1+1
9 Ruang Ka. Bag HRD & GA + staf 1+2
10 Ruang Ka.Bag Production & QC + Staf 1+2
11 Ruang Ka. Bag Pemasaran & Penjualan + Staf 1+2
12 Ruang Ka. Bag Maintenance + Staf 1+1
13 Ruang Ka. Bag Supplaycain & Logistic Control + Staf 1+1
14 Ruang Staf Ahli 1
15 Ruang Sekretaris 1
TOTAL LUAS
Luas lantai fasilitas total adalah = Luas Total + ( Luas Total x 100 % ) m2
Luas lantai fasilitas total adalah = 376+ (376x 100 % ) m2
Luas lantai fasilitas total adalah = 928
Luas Lantai ( m2 ) Total Luas ( m2 )
(6x6) 36 24 Ruang Rapat

(6x5) 30 12 Ruang Receptionist (loby)
(5x5) 25 12 Ruang Tunggu ( standby sopir)
(5x5) 25 20 Gudang Cleaning Service
(5x5) 25 20 Rest Area + Smoking Area
(5x5) 25
(5x5) 25
(4x5) + (2x2) 24
(4x5) + (2x2) + (2x2) 28
(4x5) + (2x2) + (2x2) 28
(4x5) + (2x2) + (2x2) 28
(4x5) + (2x2) 24
(4x5) + (2x2) 24
(4x5) 20
( 3x3 ) 9
464
Luas Total + ( Luas Total x 100 % ) m2

376+ (376x 100 % ) m2 9280000 3046.3092
m2 928 30.463092 1000
( 4x6 )
( 3x4 )
( 3x4 )
( 4x5 )
( 4x5 )
40 25
E. LUAS LANTAI FASILITAS
No. Nama Tempat Jumlah Luas Lantai ( m2 )

1 Ruang Rapat 1 ( 4x6 )
2 Ruang Receptionist (loby) 1 ( 3x4 )
3 Ruang Tunggu ( standby sopir) 1 ( 3x4 )
4 Ruang Loker 1 ( 7x10)
5 Gudang Cleaning Service 1 ( 4x5 )
6 Rest Area + Smoking Area 1 ( 4x5 )
7 Tempat Parkir Karyawan 1 ( 30x50 )
8 Tempat Parkir Tamu 1 ( 7x8 )

9 Kantin 1 (15x10)
10 Masjid 1 ( 20x10 )
11 WC Perkantoran 4 ( 1.5x2 )
12 WC Karyawan 76 ( 1.5x2 )
13 Pos Satpam 2 ( 4x4)
14 Poliklinik 1 ( 4x5 )
15 Ruang Generator 1 ( 4x5 )
16 Ruang Maintenance 1 ( 4x5 )
17 Ruang Peralatan ( Fotocopy ) 1 ( 5x10 )
18 Pembuangan Limbah 1 ( 10x20 )
19 Taman 1 (10x100)
20 Sarana Olahraga 1 (30x20)
TOTAL LUAS
Luas lantai fasilitas total adalah = Luas Total + ( Luas Total x 300 % ) m2
Luas lantai fasilitas total adalah = 4071 + ( 4071x 300 % ) m2
Luas lantai fasilitas total adalah = 16984 m2
Total Luas ( m2 )
24
12
12
70
20
20
1500
56
150
200
12
228
32
20
20
20
50
200
1000
600
4246
SUMMARY
Luas LantaiYang Dibutuhkan

No. Area
(m2)
1 Gudang Bahan Baku ( Receiving ) 6,105

2 Produksi 54,693
3 Gudang Barang Jadi ( Shipping ) 5,929
4 Perkantoran 928 4.231928
5 Fasilitas 16,984
TOTAL 84,639 4.231928
8.464 ha 2.9092707
Luas Lantai Yang Dibutuhkan (m2)

7.21%
20.07%
1.10%
7.01%
64.62%
Gudang Bahan Baku ( Receiving ) Produksi

Gudang Barang Jadi ( Shipping ) Perkantoran
Fasilitas
Luas Lantai Yang Dibutuhkan (m2)

Luas LantaiYang Dibutuhkan (m2)
54,693
16,984
16,984
6,105 5,929
928
A. Bentuk Badan Hukum : Perseroan Terbatas
Nama Perusahaan : PT. ALIM RUGI
B. Struktur Organisasi Perusahaan
1. Direktur
2. Wakil Direktur
3. Manager Keuangan
4. Manager Administrasi Umum
5. Manager Produk
6. Manager Pemasaran dan Keuangan
7. Kabag Personalia
8. Kabag Gudang
9. Kabag Fabrikasi & Assy
10. Kabag QC
11. Kabag Teknik
C. Kelebihan dan Kekurangan Bentuk Badan Hukum PT

D. Kelebihan dan Kekurangan Struktur Organisasi Struktur dan Staf
E. Jumlah Tenaga Kerja
Tenaga Kerja Langsung
No. Departement Jumlah Orang

1 Kaki 1 267
2 Kaki 2 247
3 Kaki 3 228
4 Lingkaran 1 210
5 Lingkaran 2 194
6 Lingkaran 3 179
7 Lingkaran 4 140
8 Lingkaran 5 155
9 Lingkaran 6 122
10 Lingkaran 7 93
11 Assembling I 111
12 Assembling II 111
13 Assembling III 34
14 Assembling IV 134
15 Assembling V 45
16 Assembling VI 12
17 Assembling VII 34
18 Assembling VIII 12
19 Assembling IX 24
TOTAL 2,352
Tenaga Tidak Kerja Langsung
No. Jabatan Jumlah Orang

Dalam Kantor
1 Direktur 1
2 Wakil Direktur 1
3 Manager 5
4 Kepala Bagian 6
5 Sekretaris 1
6 Staf Ahli 1
7 Staf 9
Sub Total 24
No. Jabatan Jumlah Orang

Luar Kantor
1 Satpam 13
2 Cleaning Service 8
3 Operator Gudang 8
4 Operator Engineering 6
5 Dokter 1
6 Operator Peralatan 1
7 Operator Pembuangan Limbah 1
8 Operator Generator 2
9 Sopir 4
10 Resepsionis 2
Sub Total 46
Total 70
TOTAL KARYAWAN 2,422
807
8.0733333333
Jumlah Orang
No Bagian
1 Tenaga Kerja Langsung 2,352
2 Tenaga Kerja Tidak Langsung (Perkantoran) 24
3 Tenaga Kerja Tidak Langsung (Non perkantoran) 46
Total 2,422
Bentuk Badan Hukum & Nama Perusaha
roan Terbatas
12. Sekretaris Direktur

13. Sekretaris Wakil Direktur
14. Staf Ahli
15. Staf Keuangan
16. Staf Personalia
17. Staf Gudang
18. Staf Fabrikasi dan Assy
19. Staf QC
20. Staf Pemasaran
21. Staf Penjualan
#REF!
Alasan
1 Manager Finance , 1 Manager HRD & GA , 1 Manager Production Control & QC, 1 Manager Pemasaran &
Penjualan , 1 Manager Supplaycain & Logistic Control,
1 Ka.Bag Finance , 1 Ka.Bag HRD & GA , 1 Ka.bag Production & QC, 1 Ka. Bag Pemasaran & Penjualan , 1
Ka.Bag Maintenance, 1 Ka.Bag Supplycain &Logistic Control
1 Sekretaris Direktur
1 Staf Ahli Pemasaran & Produksi
1 staf Finance , 1 staf HRD,1 staf GA , 1 staf Production , 1 staf Pemasaran , 1 staf Penjualan , 1 staf
Maintenance, 1 staf Supplycain &Logistic Control, 1 staf Quality
Alasan
1 orang danru, 4 orang shift 1, 4 orang shift 2 dan 4 orang shift 3
1 orang di ruangan direktur dan sekretarisnya,1 orang di ruangan wakil direktur dan sekretarisnya, 1 orang di
ruang manager, 1 orang di ruang kabag, 1 orang di ruang staf ahli, 1 orang di ruang staf, 2 orang di bagian WC
4 orang di bagian material, 4 orang di bagian produk jadi

2orang di bagian mekanik, 2 orang di bagian elektrik, 2 orang di bagian Utility
1 orang di store keeper

1 orang limbah cair, 1 orang limbah padat
1 orang generator 1, 1 orang generator 2
1 orang sopir direktur, 1 orang wakil direktur, 2 orang sopir pengirim dokumen
1 orang Standby, 1 orang mengantar tamu
a Perusahaan
#REF!
26
ONGKOS MATERIAL HANDLING
1. TABEL ONGKOS MATERIAL HANDLING

Ke
Berat Berat Total
Dari Nama Alat Angkut
Bentuk (kg)
Departemen Nama Komponen Produk/ jam (kg)
Fabrikasi
Kaki 1 Kaki 1 1,555.1 0.5 778
Total 0.5 778 LIFTTRUCK
Kaki 2 Kayu 1,433.3 0.5 717
Kaki 3 Kayu 1,321.0 0.5 661
Lingkaran 1 Kayu 1,217.6 0.5 609
Lingkaran 2 Kayu 1,122.2 0.45 505
Lingkaran 4 Kayu 953.4 0.1 95
Total 0.1 95 HANDLIFT
Receiving
Assembling
Assembly 1 Engsel (2) 731.0 0.02 15
Total 0.02 15 MANUSIA


Assembly 3 Sekrup 2cm (2) 731.0 1 731
Total 1 731 LIFTTRUCK

Assembly 4 Sekrup 2cm (5) 731.0 2.5 1,828
Sekat (2) 731.0 0.2
Total 2.7 1,828 LIFTTRUCK
Sekat (2) 731.0 0.2
Sekat (1) 0.1
Fabrikasi Assembling
Kaki 1 Assembly 1 Kaki 1 731.0 0.5 366 LIFTTRUCK
Lingkaran 1 Assembly 3 Lingkaran 1 731.0 0.5 366 LIFTTRUCK
Lingkaran 4 Assembly 6 Lingkaran 4 731.0 0.1 73 HANDLIFT
Assembling Assembling
Assembly 1 Assembly 2 Assembly 1 731.0 1.02 746 LIFTTRUCK
Assembly 2 Assembly 3 Assembly 2 731.0 1.54 1,126 LIFTTRUCK
Assembly 9 Shipping Produk Jadi 731.0 12.54 9,167 LIFTTRUCK
Total Ongkos Material handling
OMH
(Rp./m Jarak (m) Total Ongkos
gerakan)
250 73.05193 18,263
250 71.76603 17,942
250 70.4832 17,621
250 69.20383 17,301
250 68.07957 17,020
250 66.87851 16,720
200 64.09663 12,819
250 65.02334 16,256
250 62.4707 15,618
200 59.94127 11,988
150 73.91004 11,087
150 73.91004 11,087
250 58.3507 14,588
250 77.35013 19,338
250 61.25194 15,313
250 58.3507 14,588
250 68.82869 17,207

250 67.54279 16,886
250 66.25996 16,565
250 49.42125 12,355
250 67.29641 16,824
250 49.99717 12,499
200 36.48642 7,297
250 45.24076 11,310
250 34.8605 8,715
200 37.07648 7,415
250 69.6868 17,422

250 54.12746 13,532
250 57.56754 14,392
250 60.46878 15,117
250 33.64174 8,410
250 30.7405 7,685
250 30.7405 7,685
250 27.65829 6,915
250 54.70185 13,675
479,454
A B C D E F G
2. TABEL FROM TO CHART
To
Receiving Kaki 1 Kaki 2 Kaki 3 Lingkaran 1 Lingkaran 2 Lingkaran 3
From
Receiving 18,263 17,942 17,621 17,301 17,020 16,720
Kaki 1
Kaki 2
Kaki 3
Lingkaran 1
Lingkaran 2
Lingkaran 3
Lingkaran 4
Lingkaran 5
Lingkaran 6
Lingkaran 7
Assembly 1
Assembly 2
Assembly 3
Assembly 4
Assembly 5
Assembly 6
Assembly 7
Assembly 8
Assembly 9
Shipping
Total 18,263 17,942 17,621 17,301 17,020 16,720
3. TABEL OUT-FLOW
To
From
Receiving 1.061 1.063 1.064 1.400 1.012 1.338
Kaki 1
Kaki 2
Kaki 3
Lingkaran 1
Lingkaran 2
Lingkaran 3
Lingkaran 4
Lingkaran 5
Lingkaran 6
Lingkaran 7
Assembly 1
Assembly 2
Assembly 3
Assembly 4
Assembly 5
Assembly 6
Assembly 7
Assembly 8
Assembly 9
Shipping
4. TABEL IN-FLOW
To
From
Receiving 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
Kaki 1
Kaki 2
Kaki 3
Lingkaran 1
Lingkaran 2
Lingkaran 3
Lingkaran 4
Lingkaran 5
Lingkaran 6
Lingkaran 7
Assembly 1
Assembly 2
Assembly 3
Assembly 4
Assembly 5
Assembly 6
Assembly 7
Assembly 8
Assembly 9
Shipping
5. TABEL SKALA PRIORITAS
DEPARTEMEN Kode
1 2 3 4 5 6
Receiving A F I G N B C
Kaki 1 B L
Kaki 2 C L
Kaki 3 D M
Lingkaran 1 E N
Lingkaran 2 F O
Lingkaran 3 G P
Lingkaran 4 H Q
Lingkaran 5 I R
Lingkaran 6 J S
Lingkaran 7 K T
Assembly 1 L M
Assembly 2 M N
Assembly 3 N O
Assembly 4 O P
Assembly 5 P Q
Assembly 6 Q R
Assembly 7 R S
Assembly 8 S T
Assembly 9 T U
Shipping U
A
c F
L M N O P Q R S
B D E G H I J
H I J K L M N O P
Lingkaran 4 Lingkaran 5 Lingkaran 6 Lingkaran 7 Assembly 1 Assembly 2 Assembly 3 Assembly 4 Assembly 5
12,819 16,256 15,618 11,988 11,087 11,087 14,588 19,338 15,313

17,207
16,886
16,565
12,355
16,824
12,499
17,422
13,532
14,392
15,117
12,819 16,256 15,618 11,988 45,179 45,073 40,475 50,554 42,929
1.757 1.437 1.792 1.617 0.636 0.819 1.014 1.279 1.821

0.988
0.969
1.224
0.858
1.113
1.486
1.287
0.940
0.952
1.797
1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.245 0.246 0.360 0.383 0.357

0.381
0.374
0.368
0.305
0.333
0.291
0.387
0.334
0.285
0.352
Prioritas
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
D E J O R P L H K
Receiving
U Kaki 2 Lingkaran 2
T Assembly 1 Assembly 2 Assembly 3 Assembly 4 Assembly 5 Assembly 6
K Kaki 1 Kaki 3 Lingkaran 1 Lingkaran 3 Lingkaran 4
Q R S T U
Assembly 6 Assembly 7 Assembly 8 Assembly 9 Shipping Total
- 14,588 - - 247,546
17,207
16,886
16,565
12,355
16,824
12,499
7,297 7,297
11,310 11,310
8,715 8,715
7,415 7,415
17,422
13,532
14,392
15,117
8,410 8,410
7,685 7,685
7,685 7,685
6,915 6,915
13,675 13,675
-
15,708 33,583 16,400 14,330 13,675 479,454
Assembly 6 Assembly 7 Assembly 8 Assembly 9 Shipping
- 1.898 - -
0.950
1.472
1.260
0.542
1.094
1.000
1.111
0.506
Assembly 6 Assembly 7 Assembly 8 Assembly 9 Shipping
- 0.434 - - -
0.465
0.337
0.531
0.517
0.535
0.229
0.469
0.483
1.000
16 17 18 19 20
M Q S T U
Shipping
Assembly 7 Assembly 8 Assembly 9
Lingkaran 5 Lingkaran 6 Lingkaran 7
ONGKOS MATERIAL HANDLING (REVISI)
1. TABEL PERHITUNGAN JARAK ANTAR DEPARTEMEN

Dari Ke Departemen Rute/Lintasan
RECEIVING (A) Kaki 1 (B) A F O N M

A F O N M
A F O N E
Kaki 2 (C) A F O N M
Kaki 3 (D) A F O N M
A F O N E
Lingkaran 1 (E) A F O N
Lingkaran 2 (F) A
Lingkaran 3 (G) A F O P
Lingkaran 4 (H) A F O P G
A F O P Q
Lingkaran 5 (I) A F O P G
A F O P Q
A F O P Q
Lingkaran 6 (J) A F O P G
A F O P Q
A F O P Q
A F O P Q
Lingkarang (K) A F O P G
A F O P Q
A F O P Q
A F O P Q
A F O P Q
Assembly 1 (L) A F O N M
A F O N M
A F O N E
Assembly 2 (M) A F O N
A F O N E
Assembly 3 (N) A F O
Assembly 4 (O) A F
Assembly 5 (P) A F O
Assembly 6 (Q) A F O P
A F O P G
Assembly 7 (R) A F O P Q
A F O P G
A F O P G
Assembly 8 (S) A F O P Q
A F O P G
A F O P G
Assembly 9 (T) A F O P Q
A F O P G
A F O P G
A F O P G
A F O P G
A F O P Q
A F O P Q
Kaki 1 (B) Assembly 1 (L) B
Kaki 2 (C) Assembly 1 (L) C
Kaki 3 (D) Assembly 2 (M) D
Lingkaran 1 (E) Assembly 3 (N) E
Lingkaran 2 (F) Assembly 4 (O) F
Lingkaran 3 (G) Assembly 5 (P) G
Lingkaran 4 (H) Assembly 6 (Q) H
Lingkaran 5 (I) Assembly 7 (R) I
Lingkaran 6 (J) Assembly 8 (S) J
Lingkarang (K) Assembly 9 (T) K
Assembly 1 (L) Assembly 2 (M) L
Assembly 2 (M) Assembly 3 (N) M
Assembly 3 (N) Assembly 4 (O) N
Assembly 4 (O) Assembly 5 (P) O
Assembly 5 (P) Assembly 6 (Q) P
Assembly 6 (Q) Assembly 7 (R) Q
Assembly 7 (R) Assembly 8 (S) R
Assembly 8 (S) Assembly 9 (T) S
Assembly 9 (T) Gudang Barang Jadi (U) T
Total
EVISI)
Jarak Terpendek
Rute/Lintasan Jarak (m) (m)
L B 385.59 369.32
D B 378.73
D B 369.32
L C 384.30 384.30
D 313.33 303.92
D 303.92
E 242.36 242.36
F 68.08 68.08
G 245.84 245.84
H 298.68 265.97
H 265.97
H I 349.67 305.47
R I 305.47
H I 316.96
H I J 399.03 325.83
R I J 354.83
R S J 325.83
H I J 366.32
H I J K 443.31 355.70
R I J K 399.11
R S J K 370.11
R S T K 355.70
H I J K 410.60
L 316.76 316.76
D B L 447.56
D B L 438.15
M 247.07 247.07
D M 370.18
N 192.94 192.94
O 135.38 135.38
P 195.84 195.84
Q 229.49 229.49
H Q 335.17
R 260.23 260.23
H I R 394.91
H Q R 365.91
R S 290.97 290.97
H I J S 433.89
H Q R S 396.65
R S T 318.63
H I J K T 480.39 420.60
H I J S T 461.55
H I R S T 453.31
H Q R S T 424.31
H I J K T 447.68
H I R S T 420.60
L 68.83 68.83
L 67.54 67.54
M 66.26 66.26
N 49.42 49.42
O 67.30 67.30
P 50.00 50.00
Q 36.49 36.49
R 45.24 45.24
S 34.86 34.86
T 37.08 37.08
M 69.69 69.69
N 54.13 54.13
O 57.57 57.57
P 60.47 60.47
Q 33.64 33.64
R 30.74 30.74
S 30.74 30.74
T 27.66 27.66
U 54.70 54.70
6,098.41
ONGKOS MATERIAL HANDLING
1. TABEL ONGKOS MATERIAL HANDLING

Ke
Berat Berat Total
Dari Nama Alat Angkut
Bentuk (kg)
Departemen Nama Komponen Produk/ jam (kg)
Fabrikasi
Kaki 1 Kaki 1 1,555.1 0.5 778
Total 0.5 778 FORKLIFT
Kaki 2 Kayu 1,433.3 0.5 717
Kaki 3 Kayu 1,321.0 0.5 661
Lingkaran 2 Kayu 1,122.2 0.45 505
Receiving
Assembling


Assembly 3 Sekrup 2cm (2) 731.0 1 731
Total 1 731 FORKLIFT

Sekat (2) 731.0 0.2
Total 2.7 1,828 FORKLIFT
Sekat (2) 731.0 0.2
Sekat (1) 0.1
Fabrikasi Assembling
Kaki 1 Assembly 1 Kaki 1 731.0 0.5 366 FORKLIFT
Lingkaran 1 Assembly 3 Lingkaran 1 731.0 0.5 366 FORKLIFT
Assembling Assembling
Assembly 1 Assembly 2 Assembly 1 731.0 1.02 746 FORKLIFT
Assembly 2 Assembly 3 Assembly 2 731.0 1.54 1,126 FORKLIFT
Assembly 9 Shipping Assembly 9 731.0 12.54 9,167 FORKLIFT
Total Ongkos Material handling
OMH
(Rp./m Jarak (m) Total Ongkos
gerakan)
250 369.32 92,330
250 384.30 96,075
250 303.92 75,980
250 242.36 60,591
250 68.08 17,020
250 245.84 61,460
200 265.97 53,195
250 305.47 76,367
250 325.83 81,457
200 355.70 71,140
150 316.76 47,514
150 247.07 37,061
250 192.94 48,236
250 135.38 33,844
250 195.84 48,961
250 260.23 65,057
250 68.83 17,207

250 67.54 16,886
250 66.26 16,565
250 49.42 12,355
250 67.30 16,824
250 50.00 12,499
200 36.49 7,297
250 45.24 11,310
250 34.86 8,715
200 37.08 7,415
250 69.69 17,422

250 54.13 13,532
250 57.57 14,392
250 60.47 15,117
250 33.64 8,410
250 30.74 7,685
250 30.74 7,685
250 27.66 6,915
250 54.70 13,675
1,198,195
A B C D E F
2. TABEL FROM TO CHART
To
Receiving Kaki 1 Kaki 2 Kaki 3 Lingkaran 1 Lingkaran 2
From
Receiving 92,330 96,075 75,980 60,591 17,020
Kaki 1
Kaki 2
Kaki 3
Lingkaran 1
Lingkaran 2
Lingkaran 3
Lingkaran 4
Lingkaran 5
Lingkaran 6
Lingkaran 7
Assembly 1
Assembly 2
Assembly 3
Assembly 4
Assembly 5
Assembly 6
Assembly 7
Assembly 8
Assembly 9
Shipping
Total 92,330 96,075 75,980 60,591 17,020
3. TABEL OUT-FLOW
To
From
Receiving 5.366 5.690 4.587 4.904 1.012
Kaki 1
Kaki 2
Kaki 3
Lingkaran 1
Lingkaran 2
Lingkaran 3
Lingkaran 4
Lingkaran 5
Lingkaran 6
Lingkaran 7
Assembly 1
Assembly 2
Assembly 3
Assembly 4
Assembly 5
Assembly 6
Assembly 7
Assembly 8
Assembly 9
Shipping
4. TABEL IN-FLOW
To
From
Receiving 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
Kaki 1
Kaki 2
Kaki 3
Lingkaran 1
Lingkaran 2
Lingkaran 3
Lingkaran 4
Lingkaran 5
Lingkaran 6
Lingkaran 7
Assembly 1
Assembly 2
Assembly 3
Assembly 4
Assembly 5
Assembly 6
Assembly 7
Assembly 8
Assembly 9
Shipping
5. TABEL SKALA PRIORITAS
DEPARTEMEN Kode
1 2 3 4 5
Receiving A C B D K I
Kaki 1 B L
Kaki 2 C L
Kaki 3 D M
Lingkaran 1 E N
Lingkaran 2 F O
Lingkaran 3 G P
Lingkaran 4 H Q
Lingkaran 5 I R
Lingkaran 6 J S
Lingkaran 7 K T
Assembly 1 L M
Assembly 2 M N
Assembly 3 N O
Assembly 4 O P
Assembly 5 P Q
Assembly 6 Q R
Assembly 7 R S
Assembly 8 S T
Assembly 9 T U
Shipping U
A C
L M N O P
B D E F G
U T S R Q
K J I H
G H I J K L M N O
Lingkaran 3 Lingkaran 4 Lingkaran 5 Lingkaran 6 Lingkaran 7 Assembly 1 Assembly 2 Assembly 3 Assembly 4
61,460 53,195 76,367 81,457 71,140 47,514 37,061 48,236 33,844

17,207
16,886
16,565
12,355
16,824
17,422
13,532
14,392
61,460 53,195 76,367 81,457 71,140 81,607 71,047 74,123 65,060
4.917 7.290 6.752 9.347 9.594 2.727 2.739 3.352 2.239

0.988
0.969
1.224
0.858
1.113
1.287
0.940
0.952
1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.582 0.522 0.651 0.520

0.211
0.207
0.233
0.167
0.259
0.245
0.183
0.221
Prioritas
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
G E J R L H N O M
Receiving Kaki 2
Assembly 1 Assembly 2 Assembly 3 Assembly 4 Assembly 5
Kaki 1 Kaki 3 Lingkaran 1 Lingkaran 2 Lingkaran 3
Shipping Assembly 9 Assembly 8 Assembly 7 Assembly 6
Lingkaran 7 Lingkaran 6 Lingkaran 5 Lingkaran 4
P Q R S T U
Assembly 5 Assembly 6 Assembly 7 Assembly 8 Assembly 9 Shipping Total
48,961 - 65,057 - - 966,288

17,207
16,886
16,565
12,355
16,824
12,499 12,499
7,297 7,297
11,310 11,310
8,715 8,715
7,415 7,415
17,422
13,532
14,392
15,117 15,117
8,410 8,410
7,685 7,685
7,685 7,685
6,915 6,915
13,675 13,675
-
76,578 15,708 84,052 16,400 14,330 13,675 1,198,195
Assembly 5 Assembly 6 Assembly 7 Assembly 8 Assembly 9 Shipping
5.821 - 8.465 - -
1.486
0.950
1.472
1.260
0.542
1.797
1.094
1.000
1.111
0.506
Assembly 5 Assembly 6 Assembly 7 Assembly 8 Assembly 9 Shipping
0.639 - 0.774 - - -
0.163
0.465
0.135
0.531
0.517
0.197
0.535
0.091
0.469
0.483
1.000
15 16 17 18 19 20
P F Q S T U
Identitas Kelompok
Kelompok TI-15
Nama Angggota + 3 digit NPM terakhir Syifa Fauziah 132
\
Pengali 100
Tahun Praktikum PTLP (masuk semester 6) 2018
Year 2015 2013
2016
2017
2018
2019
Month Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Produk yang dibuat Rak Buku
INPUT
JANGAN
DIRUBAH
Sesuaikan dengan warna !!!

1 2
Biaya Produksi / unit

No Keterangan Kode Kabupaten/ Kota (Rp)
1 H Nganjuk 1,000,000
2 Lokasi Pasar Tujuan F Bojonegoro 1,000,000
3 T Bangkalan 1,000,000
4 B Gresik 1,100,000
5 Lokasi Pesaing W Sumenep 1,000,000
6 M Pasuruan 1,000,000
7 E Jombang 1,000,000
Bakal Lokasi Pabrik
8 P Bondowoso 1,000,000
9 Metode Transportasi NCR North-west Corner Rules
pabrik yang dipilih : Bondowoso

pasar tujuan yang dipilih : Nganjuk
jarak dari pabrik ke pasar tujuan : 362
3 4 5 6 7
Harga Bangunan m (RP)
2
Upah
Biaya Distribusi/ Harga Tanah Tenaga Market share Efesiensi
unit/km (Rp) m2 (Rp) Bangunan Bangunan Kerja/Har (%) mesin (%)
Terbuka Tertutup i (Rp)
2,000 500,000 1,250,000 2,187,500 56,550 28 81

2,000 500,000 1,250,000 2,187,500 57,000 28 81
2,000 350,000 875,000 1,531,250 55,100 28 81
2,500 1,200,000 3,000,000 5,250,000 109,750 28 81
2,000 350,000 875,000 1,531,250 54,500 28 81
2,000 800,000 2,000,000 3,500,000 109,500 28 81
2,000 600,000 1,500,000 2,625,000 75,000 28 81
2,000 400,000 1,000,000 1,750,000 55,250 28 81
Tabel. 1 Investasi Dan Depresiasi
(a) (b) (c) (d) (e) = 10% x (d) (f) = (a) x (d) (g) = (a) x (e)
No Jenis Aktiva Jumlah/STD Ukuran Umur Harga Nilai Sisa Total Harga Total Nilai Sisa
1 Tanah 84,638.56 m2 - 400,000.00 - 33,855,424,160.00 -
2 Bangunan Tertutup 68,524.56 m2 25 1,000,000.00 100,000.00 68,524,560,400.00 6,852,456,040.00
3 Bangunan Terbuka 3,376.00 m2 25 1,750,000.00 175,000.00 5,908,000,000.00 590,800,000.00
4 Jalan 12738 m2 30 400,000.00 40,000.00 5,095,200,000.00 509,520,000.00
5 Mobil 2 Buah 10 150,000,000.00 15,000,000.00 300,000,000.00 30,000,000.00
6 Mobil Box 2 Buah 10 160,000,000.00 16,000,000.00 320,000,000.00 32,000,000.00
7 ForkLift 3 Buah 10 250,000,000.00 25,000,000.00 750,000,000.00 75,000,000.00
8 Komputer Kantor 24 Buah 5 2,000,000.00 200,000.00 48,000,000.00 4,800,000.00
9 Laptop 7 Buah 5 3,500,000.00 350,000.00 24,500,000.00 2,450,000.00
10 Mesin Faximile 1 Buah 5 1,000,000.00 100,000.00 1,000,000.00 100,000.00
11 Printer 9 Buah 5 800,000.00 80,000.00 7,200,000.00 720,000.00
12 AC 15 Buah 5 1,500,000.00 150,000.00 22,500,000.00 2,250,000.00
13 Kipas Angin 9 Buah 5 250,000.00 25,000.00 2,250,000.00 225,000.00
14 Telepon 26 Buah 10 100,000.00 10,000.00 2,600,000.00 260,000.00
15 Meubel R. Direktur 1 Set 5 2,500,000.00 250,000.00 2,500,000.00 250,000.00
16 Meubel R. Wakil Direktur 1 Set 5 2,000,000.00 200,000.00 2,000,000.00 200,000.00
17 Meubel R. Staff Ahli 1 Set 5 1,500,000.00 150,000.00 1,500,000.00 150,000.00
18 Meubel R Sekertaris 1 Set 5 1,500,000.00 150,000.00 1,500,000.00 150,000.00
19 Meubel R. Manajer 5 Set 5 1,200,000.00 120,000.00 6,000,000.00 600,000.00
20 Meubel R. Ka.Bag 6 Set 5 1,200,000.00 120,000.00 7,200,000.00 720,000.00
21 Meubel R. Staff 9 Set 5 800,000.00 80,000.00 7,200,000.00 720,000.00
22 Meubel R. Scurity 1 Set 5 500,000.00 50,000.00 500,000.00 50,000.00
23 Meubel Kantin 25 Set 5 750,000.00 75,000.00 18,750,000.00 1,875,000.00
24 Perlengkapan R. Rapat 1 Set 5 10,000,000.00 1,000,000.00 10,000,000.00 1,000,000.00
25 Plkp. Rumah Tangga Kant 2 Set 5 1,500,000.00 150,000.00 3,000,000.00 300,000.00
26 Alat Pemadam Kebakaran 30 Buah 5 700,000.00 70,000.00 21,000,000.00 2,100,000.00
27 Fire Hidrant 1 Unit 10 10,000,000.00 1,000,000.00 10,000,000.00 1,000,000.00
28 Generator 1 Unit 5 10,000,000.00 1,000,000.00 10,000,000.00 1,000,000.00
29 Rak File & Dokumen 25 Buah 5 500,000.00 50,000.00 12,500,000.00 1,250,000.00
30 Audiophone/speaker 11 Buah 5 450,000.00 45,000.00 4,950,000.00 495,000.00
31 Peralatan Pengamanan 6 Set 5 600,000.00 60,000.00 3,600,000.00 360,000.00
32 Peralatan R. Olah Raga 1 Set 5 1,000,000.00 100,000.00 1,000,000.00 100,000.00
33 Peralatan R. Kesehatan 1 Set 5 5,500,000.00 550,000.00 5,500,000.00 550,000.00
34 Peralatan engineering 6 Set 5 2,000,000.00 200,000.00 12,000,000.00 1,200,000.00
35 Komputer Produksi 9 Unit 5 5,500,000.00 550,000.00 49,500,000.00 4,950,000.00
36 Pencil 181 Buah 1 5,000.00 500.00 905,000.00 90,500.00
37 Mistar 181 Buah 1 50,000.00 5,000.00 9,050,000.00 905,000.00
38 Meja Fabrikasi 181 Buah 5 750,000.00 75,000.00 135,750,000.00 13,575,000.00
39 Mesin Potong 451 Buah 5 4,500,000.00 450,000.00 2,029,500,000.00 202,950,000.00
40 Mesin Serut 343 Buah 5 2,500,000.00 250,000.00 857,500,000.00 85,750,000.00
41 Mesin Bor 171 Buah 5 4,000,000.00 400,000.00 684,000,000.00 68,400,000.00
42 Meja Assembling 517 Buah 5 800,000.00 80,000.00 413,600,000.00 41,360,000.00
43 Obeng 469 Buah 1 50,000.00 5,000.00 23,450,000.00 2,345,000.00
Total Investasi = 119,205,189,560.00 Total Depresiasi =
Note :
Jalan :
- Total Luas Fasilitas x 75 % 12738 m2
- Tanah - Bangunan terbuka - Jalan 3,376.00 m2

Tanah :
- Total Luas Lantai. 84,638.56 m2
Bangunan Terbuka :
- Taman 1000
- Tempat Pembuangan Sampah 200
- Sarana Olahraga 600
- Smoking area 20
- Tempat Parkir 1556
Total ( m2 ) 3376
(h) = (f - g) / c
Depresiasi
-
2,466,884,174.40
212,688,000.00
152,856,000.00
27,000,000.00
28,800,000.00
67,500,000.00
8,640,000.00
4,410,000.00
180,000.00
1,296,000.00
4,050,000.00
405,000.00
234,000.00
450,000.00
360,000.00
270,000.00
270,000.00
1,080,000.00
1,296,000.00
1,296,000.00
90,000.00
3,375,000.00
1,800,000.00
540,000.00
3,780,000.00
900,000.00
1,800,000.00
2,250,000.00
891,000.00
648,000.00
180,000.00
990,000.00
2,160,000.00
8,910,000.00
814,500.00
8,145,000.00
24,435,000.00
365,310,000.00
154,350,000.00
123,120,000.00
74,448,000.00
21,105,000.00
3,780,006,674.40
Tabel. 2 Pola Pengembalian Kredit
(a) (b) = (bt-1)-(dt) (c) = 7.5% * (bt-1) (d) = (e) - (c) (e) = P(A/P,I,n)
Tahun Pinjaman Bunga Kredit Angsuran Pokok Pembayaran
0 23,841,037,912.00 - - -
1 19,736,452,348.14 1,788,077,843.40 4,104,585,563.86 5,892,663,407.26
2 15,324,022,866.99 1,480,233,926.11 4,412,429,481.15 5,892,663,407.26
3 10,580,661,174.75 1,149,301,715.02 4,743,361,692.24 5,892,663,407.26
4 5,481,547,355.59 793,549,588.11 5,099,113,819.16 5,892,663,407.26
5 0.00 411,116,051.67 5,481,547,355.59 5,892,663,407.26
Tabel 3. Perhitungan Biaya Bahan Langsung
(c) = Rasio (d) = Rasio (e) = Rasio (f) = Rasio KPT4 (g) = 1680 x
(a) (b) KPT1 x (g) KPT2 x (g) KPT3 x (g) x (g) B.disiapkan
Komponen Harga (Rp) Tahun 1 Tahun 2 Tahun 3 Tahun 4 Tahun 5
Kaki 1 11,000 993,209.31 1,565,978.09 2,138,746.87 2,711,515.65 3,284,284.44
Kaki 2 11,000 915,431.09 1,443,346.35 1,971,261.61 2,499,176.86 3,027,092.12
Kaki 3 11,000 843,743.68 1,330,317.89 1,816,892.11 2,303,466.32 2,790,040.54
Lingkaran 1 24,000 777,670.11 1,226,140.70 1,674,611.29 2,123,081.88 2,571,552.46
Lingkaran 2 23,000 716,770.77 1,130,121.62 1,543,472.48 1,956,823.33 2,370,174.19
Lingkaran 3 20,000 660,640.45 1,041,621.80 1,422,603.15 1,803,584.50 2,184,565.85
Lingkaran 4 3,000 608,905.69 960,052.40 1,311,199.10 1,662,345.80 2,013,492.50
Lingkaran 5 4,000 572,675.81 902,929.28 1,233,182.75 1,563,436.22 1,893,689.69
Lingkaran 6 12,000 527,829.56 832,220.89 1,136,612.21 1,441,003.53 1,745,394.85
Lingkaran 7 6,000 471,602.52 743,568.56 1,015,534.59 1,287,500.63 1,559,466.67
Total
Tabel 4. Perhitungan Biaya Bahan Tidak Langsung

(c) = Rasio (d) = Rasio (e) = Rasio (f) = Rasio KPT4 (g) = KPT x Part
(a) (b) KPT1 x (g) KPT2 x (g) KPT3 x (g) x (g) Ass.x 1680 jam
Komponen Harga (Rp) Tahun 1 Tahun 2 Tahun 3 Tahun 4 Tahun 5

Sekat 1,000.00 5,527,910.54 8,715,772.90 11,903,635.27 15,091,497.63 18,279,360.00
Sekrup 200.00 15,478,149.51 24,404,164.13 33,330,178.76 42,256,193.38 51,182,208.00
Engsel 1,000.00 4,422,328.43 6,972,618.32 9,522,908.22 12,073,198.11 14,623,488.00
Total
Perhitungan Biaya Bahan Langsung dan Tidak

Tabel 3. Perhitungan Biaya Bahan Langsung
Tabel 4. Perhitungan Biaya Bahan Tidak Langsung
303,954,94
250,946,167,308.979M
197,937,389,664.561M
144,928,612,020.142M
91,919,834,375.723M
43,13
35,615,934,418.214M
28,092,579,236.428M
20,569,224,054.642M
13,045,868,872.857M
Tahun 1 Tahun 2 Tahun 3 Tahun 4 Ta

(h) = (b) x (c) (i) = (b) x (d) (j) = (b) x (e) (k) = (b) x (f) (l) = (b) x (g)
Harga Tahun 1 Harga Tahun 2 Harga Tahun 3 Harga Tahun 4 Harga Tahun 5
10,925,302,416.24 17,225,759,008.81 23,526,215,601.39 29,826,672,193.96 36,127,128,786.53
10,069,741,984.03 15,876,809,820.83 21,683,877,657.64 27,490,945,494.45 33,298,013,331.26
9,281,180,489.26 14,633,496,843.76 19,985,813,198.27 25,338,129,552.78 30,690,445,907.28
18,664,082,716.68 29,427,376,812.94 40,190,670,909.19 50,953,965,005.45 61,717,259,101.71
16,485,727,632.50 25,992,797,312.43 35,499,866,992.37 45,006,936,672.30 54,514,006,352.23
13,212,808,957.91 20,832,435,960.78 28,452,062,963.65 36,071,689,966.51 43,691,316,969.38
1,826,717,083.26 2,880,157,185.10 3,933,597,286.94 4,987,037,388.79 6,040,477,490.63
2,290,703,222.41 3,611,717,110.12 4,932,730,997.83 6,253,744,885.54 7,574,758,773.25
6,333,954,759.19 9,986,650,629.68 13,639,346,500.17 17,292,042,370.65 20,944,738,241.14
2,829,615,114.24 4,461,411,335.68 6,093,207,557.12 7,725,003,778.56 9,356,800,000.00
91,919,834,375.72 144,928,612,020.14 197,937,389,664.56 250,946,167,308.98 303,954,944,953.40
(h) = (b) x (c) (i) = (b) x (d) (j) = (b) x (e) (k) = (b) x (f) (l) = (b) x (g)
Harga Tahun 1 Harga Tahun 2 Harga Tahun 3 Harga Tahun 4 Harga Tahun 5
5,527,910,539.35 8,715,772,904.51 11,903,635,269.67 15,091,497,634.84 18,279,360,000.00
3,095,629,902.03 4,880,832,826.53 6,666,035,751.02 8,451,238,675.51 10,236,441,600.00
4,422,328,431.48 6,972,618,323.61 9,522,908,215.74 12,073,198,107.87 14,623,488,000.00
13,045,868,872.86 20,569,224,054.64 28,092,579,236.43 35,615,934,418.21 43,139,289,600.00
Langsung dan Tidak Langsung

Biaya Bahan Langsung
Biaya Bahan Tidak Langsung
303,954,944,953.398M
250,946,167,308.979M
9,664.561M
43,139,289,600.000M
35,615,934,418.214M
2,579,236.428M
hun 3 Tahun 4 Tahun 5

Tabel 5. Perhitungan Biaya Tenaga Kerja Tak Langsung
(a) (b) (c) (d) (e) = 12 x (d) (f) = (c) x (e)
No Jabatan Jumlah Gaji/Bulan Gaji/Tahun Biaya
Perkantoran :
1 Direktur 1 8,800,000.00 105,600,000.00 105,600,000.00
2 Wakil Direktur 1 5,500,000.00 66,000,000.00 66,000,000.00
3 Manager Finance 1 3,300,000.00 39,600,000.00 39,600,000.00
4 Manager HRD & GA 1 3,300,000.00 39,600,000.00 39,600,000.00
5 Manager Production & QC 1 3,300,000.00 39,600,000.00 39,600,000.00
6 Manager Pemasaran & Penjualan 1 3,300,000.00 39,600,000.00 39,600,000.00
Manager Supplaycain & Logistic
7 Control 1 3,300,000.00 39,600,000.00 39,600,000.00
8 Ka.Bag Finance 1 2,200,000.00 26,400,000.00 26,400,000.00

9 Staf Bag Finance 1 1,700,000.00 20,400,000.00 20,400,000.00
10 Ka. Bag HRD & GA 1 2,200,000.00 26,400,000.00 26,400,000.00
11 Staf HRD 1 1,700,000.00 20,400,000.00 20,400,000.00
12 Staf GA 1 1,700,000.00 20,400,000.00 20,400,000.00
13 Ka.Bag Production & QC 1 2,200,000.00 26,400,000.00 26,400,000.00
14 Staf Production 1 1,700,000.00 20,400,000.00 20,400,000.00
15 Staf QC 1 1,700,000.00 20,400,000.00 20,400,000.00
16 Ka. Bag Pemasaran & Penjualan 1 2,200,000.00 26,400,000.00 26,400,000.00
17 Ka. Staf Pemasaran 1 2,200,000.00 26,400,000.00 26,400,000.00
18 Ka. Staf Penjualan 1 2,200,000.00 26,400,000.00 26,400,000.00
19 Ka. Bag Maintenance 1 2,200,000.00 26,400,000.00 26,400,000.00
20 Staf Maintenance 1 1,700,000.00 20,400,000.00 20,400,000.00
21 Ka. Bag Supplaycain & Logistic Control 1 2,200,000.00 26,400,000.00 26,400,000.00
22 Staf Supplaycain & Logistic Control 1 1,400,000.00 16,800,000.00 16,800,000.00
23 Staf Ahli 1 1,400,000.00 16,800,000.00 16,800,000.00

24 Sekretaris 1 1,400,000.00 16,800,000.00 16,800,000.00
Non Perkantoran :
No Jabatan Jumlah Gaji/Bulan Gaji/Tahun Biaya
1 Satpam 13 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 172,380,000.00
2 Cleaning Service 8 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 106,080,000.00
3 Operator Gudang 8 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 106,080,000.00
4 Operator Engineering 6 1,400,000.00 16,800,000.00 100,800,000.00
5 Dokter 1 3,300,000.00 39,600,000.00 39,600,000.00
6 Operator Peralatan 1 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 13,260,000.00

7 Operator Pembuangan Limbah 1 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 13,260,000.00
8 Operator Generator 2 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 26,520,000.00
9 Sopir 4 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 53,040,000.00
Resepsionis 2 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 26,520,000.00
Total 1,411,140,000.00
Tabel 6. Perhitungan Biaya Tenaga Kerja Langsung
(a) (b) (c) (d) (e) = 5 x (d) (f) = 4 x (e) (g) = 12 x (f) (h) = (c) x (g)
No Jenis Jumlah TK Gaji/hari Gaji/Minggu Gaji/Bulan Gaji/Tahun Biaya
1 Kaki 1 267 55,250.00 276,250.00 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 3,540,420,000.00
2 Kaki 2 247 55,250.00 276,250.00 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 3,275,220,000.00
3 Kaki 3 228 55,250.00 276,250.00 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 3,023,280,000.00
4 Lingkaran 1 210 55,250.00 276,250.00 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 2,784,600,000.00
5 Lingkaran 2 194 55,250.00 276,250.00 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 2,572,440,000.00
6 Lingkaran 3 179 55,250.00 276,250.00 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 2,373,540,000.00
7 Lingkaran 4 140 55,250.00 276,250.00 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 1,856,400,000.00
8 Lingkaran 5 155 55,250.00 276,250.00 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 2,055,300,000.00
9 Lingkaran 6 122 55,250.00 276,250.00 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 1,617,720,000.00
10 Lingkaran 7 93 55,250.00 276,250.00 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 1,233,180,000.00
11 Assembling I 111 55,250.00 276,250.00 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 1,471,860,000.00
12 Assembling II 111 55,250.00 276,250.00 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 1,471,860,000.00
13 Assembling III 34 55,250.00 276,250.00 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 450,840,000.00
14 Assembling IV 134 55,250.00 276,250.00 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 1,776,840,000.00
15 Assembling V 45 55,250.00 276,250.00 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 596,700,000.00
16 Assembling VI 12 55,250.00 276,250.00 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 159,120,000.00
17 Assembling VII 34 55,250.00 276,250.00 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 450,840,000.00
18 Assembling VIII 12 55,250.00 276,250.00 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 159,120,000.00
19 Assembling IX 24 55,250.00 276,250.00 1,105,000.00 13,260,000.00 318,240,000.00
Total 31,187,520,000.00
Biaya Tenaga Kerja

Biaya TKL Total Biaya TKTL
3,540,420,000.000M
3,275,220,000.000M
3,023,280,000.000M
2916000000
2,784,600,000.000M
2,572,440,000.000M
2,373,540,000.000M
2,055,300,000.000M
1,856,400,000.000M
3,540,420,000.000M
3,275,220,000.000M
3,023,280,000.000M
2916000000
2,784,600,000.000M
2,572,440,000.000M
2,373,540,000.000M
2,055,300,000.000M
1,856,400,000.000M 1,776,840,000.000M
1,617,720,000.000M
1,471,860,000.000M
1,471,860,000.000M
1,233,180,000.000M
596,700,000.000M
450,840,000.000M 450,840,000.000M
318,240,000.000
159,120,000.000M 159,120,000.000M
aya Tenaga Kerja
916000000
0M
916000000
0M
1,776,840,000.000M
20,000.000M
1,471,860,000.000M
1,471,860,000.000M
1,233,180,000.000M
596,700,000.000M
450,840,000.000M 450,840,000.000M
318,240,000.000M
159,120,000.000M 159,120,000.000M
Tabel 5. Perhitungan Cost Of Good Sold
HPP LEMARI TIGA PINTU Tahun Ke-1 Tahun Ke-2 Tahun Ke-3 Tahun Ke-4 Tahun Ke-5
1 Bahan Langsung (A) Rp. 91,919,834,375.72 144,928,612,020.14 197,937,389,664.56 250,946,167,308.98 303,954,944,953.40

2 Buruh Langsung (B) Rp. 31,187,520,000.00 31,187,520,000.00 31,187,520,000.00 31,187,520,000.00 31,187,520,000.00
3 Overhead Pabrik :
1. Bahan Tidak Langsung (C) Rp. 13,045,868,872.86 20,569,224,054.64 28,092,579,236.43 35,615,934,418.21 43,139,289,600.00
2. Buruh Tidak Langsung (D) Rp. 1,411,140,000.00 1,411,140,000.00 1,411,140,000.00 1,411,140,000.00 1,411,140,000.00
3. Listrik Kantor & Penerangan (E) Rp. 83,815,200.00 83,815,200.00 83,815,200.00 83,815,200.00 83,815,200.00
4. Listrik Mesin (F) Rp. 419,076,000.00 419,076,000.00 419,076,000.00 419,076,000.00 419,076,000.00
5. PAM (E) Rp. 16,763,040.00 16,763,040.00 16,763,040.00 16,763,040.00 16,763,040.00
6. Bahan Bakar (G) Rp. 83,815,200.00 83,815,200.00 83,815,200.00 83,815,200.00 83,815,200.00
7. Asuransi (H) Rp. 41,907,600.00 41,907,600.00 41,907,600.00 41,907,600.00 41,907,600.00
8. Pajak Bumi & Bangunan (I) Rp. 108,287,984.56 108,287,984.56 108,287,984.56 108,287,984.56 108,287,984.56
9. Maintenance (J) Rp. 83,815,200.00 83,815,200.00 83,815,200.00 83,815,200.00 83,815,200.00
10. Telepon (K) Rp. 20,953,800.00 20,953,800.00 20,953,800.00 20,953,800.00 20,953,800.00
11. Lain-lain (L) Rp. 10,000,000.00 10,000,000.00 10,000,000.00 10,000,000.00 10,000,000.00
12. Depresiasi (M) Rp. 3,780,006,674.40 3,780,006,674.40 3,780,006,674.40 3,780,006,674.40 3,780,006,674.40
15. Ongkos Material Handling (N) Rp. 608,747,144.08 959,802,411.10 1,310,857,678.13 1,661,912,945.16 2,012,968,212.19
TOTAL BIAYA FABRIKASI (O) =(A+…..+N) Rp. 142,821,551,091.62 203,704,739,184.85 264,587,927,278.08 325,471,115,371.32 386,354,303,464.55
4 Ditambah Pers. WIP 1 Jan. (P) Rp. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
(Q)=(O+P) Rp. 142,821,551,091.62 203,704,739,184.85 264,587,927,278.08 325,471,115,371.32 386,354,303,464.55
Dikurangi Pers. WIP 31 Des. (R) Rp. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
HARGA POKOK PRODUKSI (S)=(Q-R) Rp. 142,821,551,091.62 203,704,739,184.85 264,587,927,278.08 325,471,115,371.32 386,354,303,464.55
5 Ditambah Pers. Brg Jadi 1 Jan (T) Rp. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
(U)=(S+T) Rp. 142,821,551,091.62 203,704,739,184.85 264,587,927,278.08 325,471,115,371.32 386,354,303,464.55
Dikurangi Pers Brg Jadi 31 Des (V) Rp. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
HARGA POKOK PENJUALAN (W)=(U-V) Rp. 142,821,551,091.62 203,704,739,184.85 264,587,927,278.08 325,471,115,371.32 386,354,303,464.55
Harga Jual = HPP + PPN + Profit

PPN = (10% x HPP) (X)=(W*10%) Rp. 14,282,155,109.16 20,370,473,918.48 26,458,792,727.81 32,547,111,537.13 38,635,430,346.45
Profit = (175% x HPP) (Y)=(W*175%) Rp. 214,232,326,637.42 305,557,108,777.27 396,881,890,917.12 488,206,673,056.97 579,531,455,196.82
Harga Penjualan (Z)=(W+X+Y) Rp. 371,336,032,838.20 529,632,321,880.61 687,928,610,923.01 846,224,899,965.42 1,004,521,189,007.83
Harga Pokok Penjualan/Unit = HPP : Jumlah Produksi

Jumlah Produksi/Tahun (AA) Pcs 1,105,262.06 1,742,649.96 2,380,037.86 3,017,425.77 3,654,813.67
Harga Pokok Penjualan/Unit (AB)=(W/AA) Rp. 129,219.63 116,893.66 111,169.63 107,863.84 105,711.08
Harga Jual/Unit = Harga Jual : Jumlah Produksi

Harga Jual/Unit (AC)=(Z/AA) Rp. 335,971.03 303,923.53 289,041.04 280,445.97 274,848.81
Perhitungan Cost
Total Biaya Fabrikasi Harga Pokok Produksi 3 8 38 3 8
Harga Pokok Penjualan 6, 6
35 ,35 6,35
4, 4
32 32 3 2 30 ,30 4,30
3, 3
5, 5
47 ,47 5,47 46 ,46 3,46
4. 4
26 2 2
1, 1,
11 11 ,11 1 54 .54 4.54
4, 64, 6 4, 5, 5,
37 37 ,37 5 9M 9M 9M
5 8 5 8 58
1. 1
20 2 2
7, 7
92 ,92 7,92 31 .31 1.31
3, 0 3, 03, 7, 7
27 ,27 7,27
5M 5 M 5M
7 0 70 7 0
8. 8
14 1 1
4, 4
73 ,73 4,73 08 .08 8.08
2, 42, 4 2, 9, 9
18 ,18 9,18
2M 2M 2M
82 8 2 82
4. 4
1, 1
55 ,55 1,55 84 .84 4.84
1, 1 9M 9M 9M
09 ,09 1,09
1. 1
61 .61 1.61
6M 6M 6M
Tahun 1 Tahun 2 Tahun 3 Tahun 4 Tahun 5

Tabel.8 Income Statement
Income Statement Tahun Ke-1 Tahun Ke-2
1 Penjualan (A)=H.Penj.T.5 Rp. 371,336,032,838.20 529,632,321,880.61
2 Dikurangi COGS (B)=HPP T.5 Rp. 142,821,551,091.62 203,704,739,184.85
LABA KOTOR (C)=(A-B) Rp. 228,514,481,746.59 325,927,582,695.76
3 Dikurangi Beban Komersial
a. Beban Administrasi (D) Rp. 100,000,000.00 100,000,000.00
b. Beban Pemasaran
- Pengiriman (E)=(a x b x cn) Rp. 800,209,728,241.81 1,261,678,570,536.35
- Lain-lain (F) Rp. 80,000,000.00 80,000,000.00
TOTAL KOMERSIAL (G)=(D+E+F) Rp. 800,389,728,241.81 1,261,858,570,536.35
4 LABA OPERASI/ USAHA (EBIT) (H)=(C - G) Rp. (571,875,246,495.22) (935,930,987,840.59)
Beban Bunga ( I )=B.Kredit T.2 Rp. 1,788,077,843.40 1,480,233,926.11
5 LABA SEBELUM PAJAK (EBT) (J)=(H - I ) (573,663,324,338.62) (937,411,221,766.70)
Dikurangi PPh 20% (K)=(J)*20% Rp. (114,732,664,867.73) (187,482,244,353.34)
Dikurangi PPN 10% (L)=(A)*10% Rp. 37,133,603,283.82 52,963,232,188.06
6 EAT (M)=(J - K - L) Rp. (496,064,262,754.72) (802,892,209,601.42)
Note untuk Pengiriman :
a = Jarak dari lokasi pabrik ke pasar tujuan = 362 km
b = Biaya distribusi dari pabrik ke pasar tujuan = Rp.2000
c = Jumlah produksi/tahun, Unit satuan produk.
Thn KPT
1 1,105,262.06
2 1,742,649.96
3 2,380,037.86
4 3,017,425.77
5 3,654,813.67
Income Statement 2,
18
4,
1, 79
LABA KOTOR TOTAL KOMERSIAL 2LABA7 OPERASI/ USAHA (EBIT) LABA 6,
SEBELUM PAJAK (EBT)
3, 25
1, 3 2 5,
26 7, 12
1, 41 5.
85 2, 43
80 8, 83 0M
0, 57 0. 6
38 0, 8 90 5 20
9, 32 53 42
22 72 6. 3, M ,7
8, 5, 35 3 40 53
51 8, 92 ,7
24 7, 0M ,6 84
4, 1. 58 83 ,5
48 80 2, ,6 94
1, 8M 69 44 .1
74 5. .9 05
6. 75 32 M
58 8M M
5M
Tahun 1 Tahun 2 Tahun 3 Tahun 4

-5 -5 -4
7 96
1, 73 , , -8
87 6 6 06 4 -9 -9 02,
5, 3, 3 3
24 32 ,262 5, 7
93 ,41
89
2, -1 -
-1
,1
6, 4
49 ,33 ,754 0, 1, 20 ,2 1,3 09
,7
-1
98 22 9, 99 01 01 -1 -1 ,4
5. 8 16
22 .62 .719 7,
8 4 76
1, 60
1.
,9
8 6 36
,1 ,6 ,6 ,6 ,4
3M 3 M M 0. 6 42 ,7 ,0 85 64 64 91
58 .69 0M 29 30 ,8 ,0 ,8 ,3
9 9 ,1 ,9 13 42 3 6 06
, ,
-5 -5 -4
7 7 9 6,
1, 3 -8
87 ,66 064 -9 -9 02,
5, 3 3 3
24 ,32 ,262 5, 7
93 ,41
89
2, -1 -1
-1
,1
6, 4 09
49 ,33 ,754 0,
98 ,22
1 20
9,
,2
99 301
, ,7
-1
,4
5. 8 01 -1 -1 16
22 .62 .719 7,
8 4 76
1, 60
1.
,9 ,
8 6 1 36 ,6 ,6 ,6 ,4
3M 3 M M 0. 42 ,7 , 85 64 64 91
6. 29 030 ,8 ,0 ,8 ,3
58 69 0 13 42 3 6 06
9M 9M M ,1 ,
8 5 9 00 .0 ,4 ,0 ,0
.9 .9 80 70 20 92
60 80 M ,5 ,1 .
M M 31 1 9
.3 .4
20 30
M M
Tahun Ke-3 Tahun Ke-4 Tahun Ke-5
687,928,610,923.01 846,224,899,965.42 1,004,521,189,007.83
264,587,927,278.08 325,471,115,371.32 386,354,303,464.55
423,340,683,644.93 520,753,784,594.11 618,166,885,543.28
100,000,000.00 100,000,000.00 100,000,000.00
1,723,147,412,830.89 2,184,616,255,125.43 2,646,085,097,419.97

80,000,000.00 80,000,000.00 80,000,000.00
1,723,327,412,830.89 2,184,796,255,125.43 2,646,265,097,419.97
(1,299,986,729,185.96) (1,664,042,470,531.32) (2,028,098,211,876.69)
1,149,301,715.02 793,549,588.11 411,116,051.67
(1,301,136,030,900.98) (1,664,836,020,119.43) (2,028,509,327,928.36)
(260,227,206,180.20) (332,967,204,023.89) (405,701,865,585.67)
68,792,861,092.30 84,622,489,996.54 100,452,118,900.78
(1,109,701,685,813.08) (1,416,491,306,092.08) (1,723,259,581,243.47)
2,
64
6,
nt 2,
18
26
5,
09
4,
79 7,
6, 41
IT) LABA SEBELUM
25 PAJAK (EBT) EAT 9.
5, 97
12 0M
5.
43
0M
52 61
0, 8,
75 16
3, 6,
78 88
4, 5,
59 54
4. 3.
10 27
5M 8M
Tahun 4 Tahun 5
-1
-1 -1 ,4
16 -1
,6 ,6 ,4 ,7
64 64 91 -2 - 2
,0 ,8 ,3 ,0 2,0 3,
13 42 3 6 06 28 28 25
, , 9
Tahun 4 Tahun 5
-1
-1 -1 ,4
16 -1
,6 ,6 ,4 ,7
64 64 91 -2 -2 23
,0 ,8 ,3 ,0 , ,2
13 42 3 6
,4 ,0
06 28 028 59
.0 ,0 ,0 , ,5
8 0M
70 20
,5 ,1
92 9 8 5 09 81
31 1 9 .0 ,2 ,3 ,2
M 80 11 27 43
.3 .4 M ,8 ,9 .4
20 30 7 6 28 70
M M .6 .3 M
90 60
M M
Tabel. 9 Perhitungan Cash Flow Thn-0, Thn-1, Thn-2, Thn-3, Thn-4, Thn-5
URAIAN Tahun-0 (Rp) Tahun-1 (Rp)

PEMASUKAN (IN FLOW)
Pinjaman Kredit (A)= Pinj.Tabel 2 23,841,037,912.00 0.00

Modal Sendiri (B)=80%*T.Inv 95,364,151,648.00
Laba Bersih (C)=L.Bersih T.6 0.00 (496,064,262,754.72)
Depresiasi (D)=Dep T.1 0.00 3,780,006,674.40
TOTAL PEMASUKAN (E)=(A+B+C+D) 119,205,189,560.00 (492,284,256,080.32)
PENGELUARAN (OUT FLOW)
Investasi (F)=Inv. Tabel 1 119,205,189,560.00 0.00

Angsuran Pokok Kredit (G)=P.Kredit T.2 0.00 4,104,585,563.86
TOTAL PENGELUARAN (H)=(F+G) 119,205,189,560.00 4,104,585,563.86
Pemasukan-Pengeluaran (I)=(E-H) 0.00 (496,388,841,644.18)
Kas Awal (J)=(K)t-1. 0.00 0.00
KAS AKHIR (K)=(I+J) 0.00 (496,388,841,644.18)
Cash Flow 2015 -2019

TOTAL PEMASUKAN TOTAL PENGELUARAN KAS AKHIR
0 2015 2016 2017 2018

Thn-5
Tahun-2 (Rp) Tahun-3 (Rp) Tahun-4 (Rp) Tahun-5 (Rp)
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
(802,892,209,601.42) (1,109,701,685,813.08) (1,416,491,306,092.08) (1,723,259,581,243.47)

3,780,006,674.40 3,780,006,674.40 3,780,006,674.40 3,780,006,674.40
(799,112,202,927.02) (1,105,921,679,138.68) (1,412,711,299,417.68) (1,719,479,574,569.07)
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

4,412,429,481.15 4,743,361,692.24 5,099,113,819.16 5,481,547,355.59
4,412,429,481.15 4,743,361,692.24 5,099,113,819.16 5,481,547,355.59
(803,524,632,408.17) (1,110,665,040,830.92) (1,417,810,413,236.84) (1,724,961,121,924.66)
(496,388,841,644.18) (1,299,913,474,052.35) (2,410,578,514,883.28) (3,828,388,928,120.12)
(1,299,913,474,052.35) (2,410,578,514,883.28) (3,828,388,928,120.12) (5,553,350,050,044.78)
ow 2015 -2019
TOTAL PENGELUARAN KAS AKHIR
2017 2018 2019

Tabel.10 Perhitungan Balance Sheet Thn-1, Thn-2, Thn-3, Thn-4, Thn-5
Tahun-1
Kegiatan
Harta
AKTIVA LANCAR
Kas (A)= Kas akhir T.7 (496,388,841,644.18)
Piutang (B) 0.00
Persediaan WIP (C) 0.00
Persediaan Barang Jadi (Iventory) (D) 0.00
TOTAL AKTIVA LANCAR (E)=(A+B+C+D) (496,388,841,644.18)
AKTIVA TETAP
Tanah (F)=T.Harga T.1 33,855,424,160.00
Bangunan (G)=T.Harga T.1 79,527,760,400.00
Mesin & Peralatan (H)=T.Harga T.1 5,822,005,000.00
Total (I)=(F+G+H) 119,205,189,560.00
Dikurangi Akumulasi Depresiasi (J)=T.Dep.T.1 3,780,006,674.40
TOTAL AKTIVA TETAP (K)=(I-J) 115,425,182,885.60
TOTAL AKTIVA (L)=(E+K) (380,963,658,758.58)
KEWAJIBAN LANCAR
Hutang Lancar (M) 0.00
Kewajiban Jangka Panjang (N) 0.00
Hutang Usaha (O)=Pinjaman T.2 19,736,452,348.14
TOTAL KEWAJIBAN (P)=(M+N+O) 19,736,452,348.14
MODAL
Modal Saham Rp. 1000/1lbr (Q)=M.Sendiri T.9 95,364,151,648.00
Laba ditahan (R)=Laba T8 (496,064,262,754.72)
TOTAL MODAL (S)=(Q+R) (400,700,111,106.72)
TOTAL KEWAJIBAN & MODAL

(T)=(P+S) (380,963,658,758.58)
(Pasiva)
Deviden/lembar saham 95,364,151.65

Total Aktiva
TOTAL AKTIVA LANCAR TOTAL AKTIVA TETAP
Tahun 1 Tahun 2 Tahun 3
Total Pasiva
Total Kewajiban Total Modal TOTAL KEWAJIBAN

Balance Sheet
Total Aktiva Total Pasiva
Tahun-2 Tahun-3 Tahun-4
Harta Harta Harta
(1,299,913,474,052.35) (2,410,578,514,883.28) (3,828,388,928,120.12)

0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
(1,299,913,474,052.35) (2,410,578,514,883.28) (3,828,388,928,120.12)
33,855,424,160.00 33,855,424,160.00 33,855,424,160.00

79,527,760,400.00 79,527,760,400.00 79,527,760,400.00
5,822,005,000.00 5,822,005,000.00 5,822,005,000.00
119,205,189,560.00 119,205,189,560.00 119,205,189,560.00
7,560,013,348.80 11,340,020,023.20 15,120,026,697.60
111,645,176,211.20 107,865,169,536.80 104,085,162,862.40
(1,188,268,297,841.15) (2,302,713,345,346.48) (3,724,303,765,257.72)
0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00
15,324,022,866.99 10,580,661,174.75 5,481,547,355.59
15,324,022,866.99 10,580,661,174.75 5,481,547,355.59
95,364,151,648.00 95,364,151,648.00 95,364,151,648.00

(1,298,956,472,356.14) (2,408,658,158,169.22) (3,825,149,464,261.31)
(1,203,592,320,708.14) (2,313,294,006,521.22) (3,729,785,312,613.31)
(1,188,268,297,841.15) (2,302,713,345,346.48) (3,724,303,765,257.71)

Total Aktiva
KTIVA LANCAR TOTAL AKTIVA TETAP TOTAL AKTIVA
Total Pasiva
an Total Modal TOTAL KEWAJIBAN & MODAL (Pasiva)

Balance Sheet
Total Aktiva Total Pasiva
2 Tahun 3 Tahun 4 Tahun 5
Tahun-5
Harta
(5,553,350,050,044.78)
0.00
0.00
0.00
(5,553,350,050,044.78)
33,855,424,160.00
79,527,760,400.00
5,822,005,000.00
119,205,189,560.00
18,900,033,372.00
100,305,156,188.00
(5,453,044,893,856.78)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
95,364,151,648.00
(5,548,409,045,504.78)
(5,453,044,893,856.78)
(5,453,044,893,856.78)
Tabel. 11 Perhitungan Break Event Point
Break Event Point Tahun Ke-1 Ke-2
Penjualan (A)= Tab. 5 Rp. 371,336,032,838.20 529,632,321,880.61
ONGKOS TETAP (FIXED COST)

Buruh Tidak Langsung (B)= Tab. 7 Rp. 1,411,140,000.00 1,411,140,000.00
Listrik & Penerangan (C)= Tab. 7 Rp. 83,815,200.00 83,815,200.00
PAM (D)= Tab. 7 Rp. 16,763,040.00 16,763,040.00
Bahan Bakar (E)= Tab. 7 Rp. 83,815,200.00 83,815,200.00
Asuransi (F)= Tab. 7 Rp. 41,907,600.00 41,907,600.00
Pajak Bumi dan Bangunan (G)= Tab. 7 Rp. 108,287,984.56 108,287,984.56
Maintenance (H)= Tab. 7 Rp. 83,815,200.00 83,815,200.00
Telepon (I)= Tab. 7 Rp. 20,953,800.00 20,953,800.00
Lain-lain (J)= Tab. 7 Rp. 10,000,000.00 10,000,000.00
Depresiasi (K)=Tot.Depr.Tab.1 Rp. 3,780,006,674.40 3,780,006,674.40
Beban Administrasi (L)=Tab. 8 Rp. 100,000,000.00 100,000,000.00
Beban Pemasaran Lain-lain (M)=Tab.8 Rp. 80,000,000.00 80,000,000.00
Beban Bunga (N)=B.Kredit.Tab.2 Rp. 1,788,077,843.40 1,480,233,926.11
TOTAL FIXED COST (O)=(B+C+…..+N) Rp. 7,608,582,542.36 7,300,738,625.07
ONGKOS BERUBAH (VARIABLE COST)

Bahan Lansung (P)=Tot.Tab.3 Rp. 91,919,834,375.72 144,928,612,020.14
Bahan Tidak Langsung (Q)=Tot.Tab.3 Rp. 13,045,868,872.86 20,569,224,054.64
Buruh Langsung (R)=Tot.Tab.4 Rp. 31,187,520,000.00 31,187,520,000.00
Ongkos Material Handling (S)=OMH Tab.5 Rp. 608,747,144.08 959,802,411.10
Pengiriman (T)=Tab.6 Rp. 800,209,728,241.81 1,261,678,570,536.35
Pajak Penghasilan (U)=PPH.Tab.6 Rp. (114,732,664,867.73) (187,482,244,353.34)
Pajak Pertambahan Nilai (V)=PPN.Tab.6 Rp. 37,133,603,283.82 52,963,232,188.06
TOTAL VARIABLE COST (W)=(P+Q+…..+V) Rp. 859,372,637,050.56 1,324,804,716,856.96
BREAK EVENT POINT (BEP) (X)=O/(1-(W/A)) Rp. (5,789,198,663.41) (4,862,728,100.05)
BEP (UNIT) (Y)=(X/Jmlh Prod/th) Rp. (5,237.85) (2,790.42)
BEP
TOTAL FIXED COST TOTAL VARIABLE COST BREAK EVENT POINT (BEP) BEP (UNIT)
Ke-3 Ke-4 Ke-5
687,928,610,923.01 846,224,899,965.42 1,004,521,189,007.83
1,411,140,000.00 1,411,140,000.00 1,411,140,000.00

83,815,200.00 83,815,200.00 83,815,200.00
16,763,040.00 16,763,040.00 16,763,040.00
83,815,200.00 83,815,200.00 83,815,200.00
41,907,600.00 41,907,600.00 41,907,600.00
108,287,984.56 108,287,984.56 108,287,984.56
83,815,200.00 83,815,200.00 83,815,200.00
20,953,800.00 20,953,800.00 20,953,800.00
10,000,000.00 10,000,000.00 10,000,000.00
3,780,006,674.40 3,780,006,674.40 3,780,006,674.40
100,000,000.00 100,000,000.00 100,000,000.00
80,000,000.00 80,000,000.00 80,000,000.00
1,149,301,715.02 793,549,588.11 411,116,051.67
6,969,806,413.98 6,614,054,287.07 6,231,620,750.63
197,937,389,664.56 250,946,167,308.98 303,954,944,953.40

28,092,579,236.43 35,615,934,418.21 43,139,289,600.00
31,187,520,000.00 31,187,520,000.00 31,187,520,000.00
1,310,857,678.13 1,661,912,945.16 2,012,968,212.19
1,723,147,412,830.89 2,184,616,255,125.43 2,646,085,097,419.97
(260,227,206,180.20) (332,967,204,023.89) (405,701,865,585.67)
68,792,861,092.30 84,622,489,996.54 100,452,118,900.78
1,790,241,414,322.11 2,255,683,075,770.44 2,721,130,073,500.67
(4,349,699,314.01) (3,971,013,488.39) (3,646,605,317.27)
(1,827.58) (1,316.03) (997.75)
EAK EVENT POINT (BEP) BEP (UNIT)

Tahun 4 Tahun 5
Tabel. 12 Perhitungan Pay Back Period
(A) (B) (C) (D) = (B-A+C) (E) = Kum.(D)

Pemasukan Kumulatif Net Cash
Tahun Pengeluaran Net Cash Flow
Net Profit Depresiasi Flow
0 119,205,189,560.00 0.00 0.00 (119,205,189,560.00) (119,205,189,560.00)

1 4,104,585,563.86 (496,064,262,754.72) 3,780,006,674.40 (496,388,841,644.18) (615,594,031,204.18)
2 4,412,429,481.15 (802,892,209,601.42) 3,780,006,674.40 (803,524,632,408.17) (1,419,118,663,612.35)
3 4,743,361,692.24 ### 3,780,006,674.40 (1,110,665,040,830.92) (2,529,783,704,443.28)
4 5,099,113,819.16 ### 3,780,006,674.40 (1,417,810,413,236.84) (3,947,594,117,680.12)
5 5,481,547,355.59 ### 3,780,006,674.40 (1,724,961,121,924.66) (5,672,555,239,604.78)
Pay Back Period = 5 tahun + (-Rp 5,672,555,239,604.78 / -Rp 1,724,961,121,924.66 )

Pay Back Period = 5 tahun + -3.29 tahun
Pay Back Period = 5 tahun, -1200 hari
Pay Back Period = 5 tahun, -39 bulan, -14 hari
Tabel.13 Perhitungan Internal Rate Of Return (IRR)
Pemasukan Discounted Cash Flow

Tahun Pengeluaran Net Cash Flow
Net Profit Depresiasi 20%
0 119,205,189,560.00 0.00 0.00 (119,205,189,560.00) (119,205,189,560.00)
1 4,104,585,563.86 (496,064,262,754.72) 3,780,006,674.40 (496,388,841,644.18) (413,657,368,036.82)

2 4,412,429,481.15 (802,892,209,601.42) 3,780,006,674.40 (803,524,632,408.17) (558,003,216,950.12)
3 4,743,361,692.24 ### 3,780,006,674.40 (1,110,665,040,830.92) (642,745,972,703.08)
4 5,099,113,819.16 ### 3,780,006,674.40 (1,417,810,413,236.84) (683,743,447,741.53)
5 5,481,547,355.59 ### 3,780,006,674.40 (1,724,961,121,924.66) (693,223,187,501.87)
Jumlah (3,110,578,382,493.42)
IRR = 20% + -3110578382493.42/ (-3110578382493.42 - (-2745202934216.09 x (25% - 20%)

IRR = 20% + 42.57%
IRR = 62.57%
MARR = 20%
Dari hasil perhitungan, diperoleh bahwa IRR > MARR, dan hal ini menandakan bahwa proyek LAYAK untuk dilaksanakan.
NPV
Total NCF Total NPV Net Cash Flow NPV
1 2 3 4
1 2 3 4
Pay Back Period

Present Kumulatif Net Cash Flow
Perhitungan Discount Cash Flow 17%

Total NCF Column F Total NPV ( Interest Rate 7.5
Net Cash Flow Discount Cash Flow (interest Rate 17%)

Discounted Cash Flow
25%
(119,205,189,560.00)
(397,111,073,315.35)
(514,255,764,741.23)
(568,660,500,905.43)
(580,735,145,261.81)
(565,235,260,432.27)
(2,745,202,934,216.09)
LAYAK untuk dilaksanakan.
h Flow NPV
###
4 5
4 5
iod
Cash Flow
Tahun 4 Tahun 5
Cash Flow 17%

Total NPV ( Interest Rate 7.5%)
17%)
Tahun 4 Tahun 5
Tahun 4 Tahun 5
ANALISA FINANSIAL
Rasio Likuiditas
Profit Margin Gross Profit Margin Return On Investment
Tahun
EBIT Penjualan - HPP
Penjualan Penjualan
1 -1.540 0.615 1.501
2 -1.767 0.615 0.788
3 -1.890 0.615 0.565
4 -1.966 0.615 0.447
5 -2.019 0.615 0.372
Rasio Solvabiliras
Total Debt to Total Asset Ratio Total Debt To Equity Ratio Gross Profit Margin
Tahun
Total Debt Total Liabilieties
total Harta Shareholder Equity
1 -0.052 -0.040 0.615
2 -0.013 -0.012 0.615
3 -0.005 -0.004 0.615
4 -0.001 -0.001 0.615
5 0.000 0.000 0.615
Rasio Likuiditas
Current Ratio Quick Ratio Average Collection Period
Tahun Current Asset Current Asset - Inventory
Current Liabilities Current Liabilities Average Sales per day
1 -25.151 -25.151 -481.235
2 -84.828 -84.828 -883.573
3 -227.829 -227.829 -1261.480
4 -698.414 -698.414 -1628.669
5 0.000 0.000 -1990.208
ANALISA FINANSIAL
Return On Investment Asset Turn Over Return on Equity

EBIT Penjualan Laba Bersih
Total Harta Harta Modal
1.501 1.501 -5.202
0.788 0.788 -8.419
0.565 0.565 -11.636
0.447 0.447 -14.853
0.372 0.372 -18.070
R
Gross Profit Margin Operating Profit Margin Net Profit Margin
Sales - Cost of Good Sold Erning Before Interst And Tax Earning After Tax
Sales Sales Sales
0.615 -1.540 -1.336
0.615 -1.767 -1.516
0.615 -1.890 -1.613
0.615 -1.966 -1.674
0.615 -2.019 -1.716
Average Collection Period Average Payment Period (APP) Total Asset Turn Over (TATO)
Account Receivables Account Payabel Sales
Average Sales per day Average Purchace per day Total Asset
-481.235 778.038 1.501
-883.573 383.142 0.788
-1261.480 193.698 0.565
-1628.669 0.001 0.447
-1990.208 0.000 0.372
Rasio Rentabilitas
Earning Per Share (EPS) Return on Asset (ROA) Return on Investement (RO
Net Income - Prefered Dividend Net Income Gain from Investement - Cost of Inv
Average Outstanding Share Total Harta Cost of Investement
1.000 1.302 -0.003
0.618 0.676 -0.002
0.461 0.482 -0.001
0.370 0.380 0.000
0.311 0.316 0.000
Invetory Turn Over (ITO)

Cost Of Goods Sold
Inventory
NOL
NOL
NOL
NOL
NOL
diperoleh Perusahaan. Semakin besar tingkat k
keuntungan :
1. PROFIT MARGIN
Kemampuan perusahaan untuk menghasi
Tahun Ke-1 Pabrik Rak Buku PT. Sukse
2. GROSS PROFIT MARGIN

Return on Investement (ROI) Return on Equity (ROE) Tahun Ke-1 Pabrik Rak Buku PT. Sukse
in from Investement - Cost of Investement Net Income Tahun Ke-2 Pabrik Rak Buku PT. Sukse
Cost of Investement Total Equity Tahun Ke-3 Pabrik Rak Buku PT. Sukse
-0.003 1.238 Tahun Ke-4 Pabrik Rak Buku PT. Sukse
-0.002 0.667 Tahun Ke-5 Pabrik Rak Buku PT. Sukse
-0.001 0.480
0.000 0.380 3. RETURN ON INVESTMENT
0.000 0.316 Perusahaan mampu menghasilkan keuntu
4. ASSET TURN OVER

Perusahaan mampu menghasilkan tingka
dari aktiva yang digunakan.
5. RETURN ON EQUITY
Kemampuan perusahaan dalam mengha
5. Total Debt to Total Asset Ratio

6. Total Debt To Equity Ratio

7. Gross Profit Margin

8. Operating Profit Margin

9. Net Profit Margin

10. Earning Per Share (EPS)

11. Return on Asset (ROA)

12. Return on Equity (ROE)

13. Return on Equity (ROE)

ANALISA
Perusahaan. Semakin besar tingkat keuntungan menunjukkan semakinFINANSIAL
baik manajemen dalam mengelola Perusahaan. Beberapa indikator
n:
Keuntungan merupaka
diambil oleh manajeme
IT MARGIN mengukur seberapa be
mpuan perusahaan untuk menghasilkan keuntungan dibandingkan dengan penjualan yang dicapai. diperoleh perusahaan.
un Ke-1 Pabrik Rak Buku PT. Sukses Prima Mandiri = -154.00% keuntungan :
un Ke-2 Pabrik Rak Buku PT. Sukses Prima Mandiri = -176.71%
SS PROFIT MARGIN
un Ke-1 Pabrik Rak Buku PT. Sukses Prima Mandiri = 61.54%
RN ON INVESTMENT
ahaan mampu menghasilkan keuntungan yang digunakan untuk menutup investasi yang dikeluarkan.
T TURN OVER
ahaan mampu menghasilkan tingkat keuntungan sebesar :
ri aktiva yang digunakan.
RN ON EQUITY
mpuan perusahaan dalam menghasilkan keuntungan dengan modal sendiri yang dimiliki.
un Ke-4 Pabrik Rak Buku PT. Sukses Prima Mandiri = ###
un Ke-5 Pabrik Rak Buku PT. Sukses Prima Mandiri = ###
Debt to Total Asset Ratio

Debt To Equity Ratio

s Profit Margin

ting Profit Margin

rofit Margin

ng Per Share (EPS)

n on Asset (ROA)

n on Equity (ROE)

n on Equity (ROE)

erusahaan. Beberapa indikator pengukur rasio
Keuntungan merupakan hasil dari kebijaksanaan yang

diambil oleh manajemen. Rasio keuntungan adalah untuk
mengukur seberapa besar tingkat keuntungan yang dapat
EBIT Beberapa indikator pengukur rasio
diperoleh perusahaan.
keuntungan : Penjualan
 100%
LabaKotor
 100%
Penjualan
EAT
 100%
Investasi
EBIT
 100%
TotalAktiv a
EAT
 100%
ModalSendi ri

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diketahui bahwa data yang dimiliki sebagai berikut:

lokasi pasar tujuan Lokasi pesaing

Harga bangunan / m^2

Biaya tahunan (juta)

OF= [ Ci x ∑(1/Ci) ]^-1

Faktor subjektif Perbandingan

Sikap masyarakt (Faktor 3)

1 0.5 0.5 0.25

SF = Wi x Ri + Wi2 x Ri2 +...+ Win x Rin

Berikut penentuan bobot

Harga bangunan / m^2

Jumlah preferensi Relative important index

pisah dengan masing-masing faktor subjektif

Site ranking (Ri)

Site ranking (Ri)

Site ranking (Ri)

ai 4 : 1, kenapa nilainya 4 :1, karena

keterangan : 21 hari kerja x 12 bulan

Total 252 hari kerja / tahun

perhitungan dengan rumus 1/Ci

perhitungan dengan rumus OF

Tujuan 1 Bondowoso Tujuan 1

Jumlah Permintaan (dari Jumlah Permintaan Akhir /

Tujuan 1 Bojonegoro Tujuan 1

Pesaing 1 Bondowoso Pesaing 1

Jumlah Produksi Jumlah Produksi Akhir / Data Jumlah Produksi

Jan-13 205,204 206,524 1

Sumenep Pesaing 1 Pasuruan

Forecast Data Permintaan

Jumlah Permintaan (dari

Jumlah Permintaan (dari

Periode Data Permintaan

Forecast Data Permintaan

Forecast Data Permintaan

Total Permintaan Tahun

Metode Brown by SPSS

n dengan Menggunakan Metode Brown, dengan α = 0.5 β = 0.5

taan dengan Menggunakan Metode Holt, dengan α = 0.5 dan β = 0.5

SSE MSE MAPE

Nilai a Nilai b Nilai Ramalan Error

157144.00 3480.00 12,110,400.00

Forecast Data Permintaan Bojonegoro

Smooting Bown Bojonegoro

5845878 Jumlah Permintaan

3.1 Peramalan Data Permintaan dengan Menggunakan Metode Brown, dengan

Forecast Data Permintaan Bojonegoro

Forecast Data Permintaan Bojonegoro

Perkiraan Permintaan (Unit) Total

SSE MSE MAPE

Metode Brown by SPSS

Periode Forcast Data Forcast

unakan Metode Brown, dengan α = 0.2

enggunakan Metode Holt, dengan α = 0.2 dan β = 0.8

Trend Ramalan Square

Forecast Data Permintaan

124710 124709 Jan-13

3.1 Peramalan Data Permintaan dengan Me

Forecast Data Permintaan

Forecast Data Permintaan

DIKETAHUI RUMUS SSE

Forecast Data Permintaan Bangkalan

Smooting Bown Bangkalan

Peramalan Data Permintaan dengan Menggunakan Metode Brown, dengan α = 0.2

Forecast Data Permintaan Bangkalan