Bulan Permintaan Peramalan Peramalan Bulan Permintaan Peramalan

MA = 3 MA = 5 Dt Ft
Jan 200 Jan 200
Feb 135 Feb 135
Mar 195 Mar 195
Apr 197.5 176.67 Apr 197.5 176.67
Mei 310 175.83 Mei 310 175.83
Juni 175 234.17 207.5 Juni 175 234.17
Juli 155 227.50 202.5 Juli 155 227.50
Agstus 130 213.33 206.5 Agstus 130 213.33
Sept 220 153.33 193.5 Sept 220 153.33
Okt 277 168.33 198 Okt 277 168.33
Nop 235 209.00 191.4 Nop 235 209.00
Des 244.00 203.4 Sum

average 202.681818 MSE 6383.125

stdev 56.0188686 MAPE 34.89%

MA = 5
Bulan Permintaan Peramalan
Dt Ft
Jan 200
Feb 135
Mar 195
Apr 197.5
Mei 310
Juni 175 207.5
Juli 155 202.5
Agstus 130 206.5
Sept 220 193.5
Okt 277 198
Nop 235 191.4
Sum

MSE 3001.493333
MAPE 27.86%
(Dt-Ft) (Dt-Ft)^2 APE
et
Permintaan
350

300
20.83 434.0278 10.55%
134.17 18000.69 43.28% 250
-59.17 3500.694 33.81%
-72.50 5256.25 46.77% 200
Permintaan

-83.33 6944.444 64.10%

66.67 4444.444 30.30% 150
108.67 11808.44 39.23%
26.00 676 11.06% 100
141.33 51065 279.11% n
Fe
b ar Ap
r ei ni li s pt Ok
t p
Ja M M Ju Ju gstu Se No
A

254.3333

(Dt-Ft)^2 APE

1056.25 18.57%
2256.25 30.65%
5852.25 58.85%
702.25 12.05%
6241 28.52%
1900.96 18.55%
18008.96 167.18%
 Permintaan

t p
Ok No
Periode Permintaan MA (4) MA (4x4) Nilai a Nilai b Peramalan APE
a + b (m)
1 140
2 159
3 136
4 157 148
5 173 156.25
6 131 149.25
7 177 159.5 153.25 165.75 4.167
8 188 167.25 158.0625 176.4375 6.125 169.91667 9.62%
9 154 162.5 159.625 165.375 1.917 182.5625 18.55%
10 179 174.5 165.9375 183.0625 5.708 167.29167 6.54%
11 180 175.25 169.875 180.625 3.583 188.77083 4.87%
12 160 168.25 170.125 166.375 -1.250 184.20833 15.13%
13 182 175.25 173.3125 177.1875 1.292 165.125 9.27%
14 192 178.5 174.3125 182.6875 2.792 178.47917 7.04%
15 224 189.5 177.875 201.125 7.750 185.47917 17.20%
16 188 196.5 184.9375 208.0625 7.708 208.875 11.10%
17 198 200.5 191.25 209.75 6.167 215.77083 8.98%
18 206 204 197.625 210.375 4.250 215.91667 4.81%
19 203 198.75 199.9375 197.5625 -0.792 214.625 5.73%
20 238 211.25 203.625 218.875 5.083 196.77083 17.32%
21 223.95833
22 229.04167

MAPE 10.47%
 Permintaan
260
240
220
200
180 Permintaan

160
140
120
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
 α 0.1
Bulan Permintaan Peramalan (Ft)
Dt α =0,1 α = 0,5 α = 0,9 APE et et^2 abs et
Jan 200 200.00 200.00 200.00
Feb 135 200.00 200.00 200.00 48.15% -65.00 4225.00 65
Mar 195 193.50 167.50 141.50 0.77% 1.50 2.25 1.5
Apr 197.5 193.65 181.25 189.65 1.95% 3.85 14.82 3.85
Mei 310 194.04 189.38 196.72 37.41% 115.97 13447.88 115.965
Juni 175 205.63 249.69 298.67 17.50% -30.63 938.29 30.6315
Juli 155 202.57 212.34 187.37 30.69% -47.57 2262.75 47.56835
Agstus 130 197.81 183.67 158.24 52.16% -67.81 4598.40 67.81152
Sept 220 191.03 156.84 132.82 13.17% 28.97 839.24 28.96964
Okt 277 193.93 188.42 211.28 29.99% 83.07 6901.07 83.07267
Nop 235 202.23 232.71 270.43 13.94% 32.77 1073.57 32.76541
Des 205.51 233.85 238.54
MAPE 24.57 29.2 30.81 245.73% 55 34303.27 477.13
MSE 3430.33 4347.24 5039.37 24.57% 3430.327262 47.71341
MAPE MSE MAD

Dt Ft α =0,1 Ft α =0,5 Ft α =0,9 350.00

200.00 200.00 200.00 200.00
135.00 200.00 200.00 200.00
300.00
195.00 193.50 167.50 141.50
197.50 193.65 181.25 189.65
310.00 194.04 189.38 196.72 250.00
175.00 205.63 249.69 298.67
155.00 202.57 212.34 187.37
200.00
130.00 197.81 183.67 158.24
220.00 191.03 156.84 132.82
277.00 193.93 188.42 211.28 150.00
235.00 202.23 232.71 270.43

100.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
 Dt
Ft α
=0,1
Ft α
=0,5
Ft α
=0,9

6 7 8 9 10 11
Periode Permintaan SES DES Nilai Nilai Peramalan
Dt S't S"t a b Ft Dt
1 140 140.00 140.00 (inisiasi) 136
2 159 143.80 140.76 146.84 0.76 157
3 136 142.24 141.06 143.42 0.30 147.60 173
4 157 145.19 141.88 148.50 0.83 143.72 131
5 173 150.75 143.66 157.85 1.77 149.33 177
6 131 146.80 144.29 149.32 0.63 159.62 188
7 177 152.84 146.00 159.69 1.71 149.95 154
8 188 159.87 148.77 170.97 2.78 161.40 179
9 154 158.70 150.76 166.64 1.99 173.75 180
10 179 162.76 153.16 172.36 2.40 168.63 160
11 180 166.21 155.77 176.65 2.61 174.76 182
12 160 164.97 157.61 172.32 1.84 179.26 192
13 182 168.37 159.76 176.98 2.15 174.16 224
14 192 173.10 162.43 183.77 2.67 179.14 188
15 224 183.28 166.60 199.96 4.17 186.44 198
16 188 184.22 170.12 198.32 3.52 204.13 206
17 198 186.98 173.49 200.46 3.37 201.85 203
18 206 190.78 176.95 204.61 3.46 203.83 238
19 203 193.23 180.21 206.25 3.25 208.07
20 238 202.18 184.60 219.76 4.39 209.50
21 224.16
22 228.55
S't S"t Ft
142.24 141.056 147.6
145.192 141.8832 143.72 245
150.7536 143.6573 149.328
146.8029 144.2864 159.624 225
152.8423 145.9976 149.9485
159.8738 148.7728 161.3982
205
158.6991 150.7581 173.7501
162.7593 153.1583 168.6253
185
166.2074 155.7681 174.7604
164.9659 157.6077 179.2565
165
168.3727 159.7607 174.1637
173.0982 162.4282 179.1378
183.2786 166.5983 186.4357 145
184.2228 170.1232 204.1289
186.9783 173.4942 201.8474 125
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
190.7826 176.9519 203.8334
193.2261 180.2067 208.071
202.1809 184.6016 209.5003
 D
t
S'
t
S"
t
Ft

1 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Periode Permintaan St Trend Peramalan
Dt bt Ft APE
1 140 140.00 5.67
2 159 148.33 6.47 245
3 136 151.04 5.34 154.80
4 157 156.50 5.38 156.38 13.82% 225
5 173 164.10 6.04 161.88 0.40%
6 131 162.32 3.69 170.15 6.43%
205
7 177 168.21 4.35 166.01 29.88%
8 188 175.65 5.28 172.56 6.21%
9 154 175.54 3.66 180.93 8.21% 185
10 179 179.17 3.65 179.21 17.49%
11 180 182.25 3.48 182.82 0.12% 165
12 160 180.59 1.94 185.74 1.57%
13 182 182.42 1.91 182.53 16.09%
145
14 192 185.86 2.37 184.33 0.29%
15 224 195.38 4.51 188.23 4.00%
16 188 197.52 3.80 199.90 15.97% 125
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
17 198 200.65 3.60 201.32 6.33%
18 206 204.60 3.70 204.25 1.68%
19 203 207.25 3.39 208.31 0.85%
20 238 216.11 5.03 210.63 2.61%
21 221.13 7.76%
22
 Periode Permintaan St
Dt
1 140 140.00
2 159 159.00
3 136 169.60
4 157 180.26
5 173 190.60
6 131 189.41
7 177 194.16
8 188 199.12
D
t
F
9 154 195.63
t
10 179 195.34
11 180 194.32
12 160 188.65
13 182 186.80
14 192 187.02
15 224 193.90
16 188 194.01
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 17 198 195.74
18 206 198.86
19 203 201.18
20 238 210.15
21
22
Trend Peramalan
bt Ft
19.00
19.00
16.48 178.00 30.88%
14.74 186.08 18.52%
13.42 195.00 12.72%
9.03 204.01 55.74%
7.75 198.45 12.12%
6.91 201.90 7.40%
3.79 206.04 33.79%
2.57 199.42 11.41%
1.49 197.90 9.95%
-0.66 195.81 22.38%
-1.02 187.99 3.29%
-0.64 185.78 3.24%
1.61 186.38 16.79%
1.16 195.52 4.00%
1.33 195.18 1.43%
1.87 197.07 4.33%
2.00 200.73 1.12%
4.09 203.19 14.63%
214.24 13.70%
Periode Permintaan St bt It Peramalan
1 362 0.95 800
2 385 1.01
750
3 432 1.14
4 341 380 9.75 0.90 700
5 382 392.00 9.97 0.95 371.29 650
6 409 402.32 10.01 1.01 407.26 600
7 498 417.47 10.52 1.14 468.75
550
8 387 428.65 10.59 0.90 384.07
9 473 450.58 11.72 0.96 418.91 500
10 513 471.09 12.60 1.02 468.47 450
11 582 489.09 13.14 1.14 551.24 400
12 474 507.40 13.66 0.90 450.83
350
13 544 530.35 14.59 0.96 499.45
14 582 550.39 15.13 1.02 554.27 300
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
15 681 571.67 15.75 1.14 645.92
16 557 593.78 16.38 0.90 528.36
17 628 618.71 17.24 0.96 586.91 80.1989
18 707 647.51 18.39 1.02 648.11 311.8
19 773 667.79 18.58 1.15 762.20
20 592 680.45 17.99 0.90 618.69
21 673.67
22 732.74
0
0
0
0
0
0 Permintaan
Peramalan

0
0
0
0
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Metode linier Regression
t dt Ft APE
1 190 180.1923 5.16% a 153.6364
2 210 206.7483 1.55% b 26.55594 600
3 225 233.3042 3.69%
4 270 259.8601 3.76% Dt = 153,64 + 26,55 t 500
5 290 286.4161 1.24%
6 310 312.972 0.96% 400
7 315 339.528 7.79%
300
8 360 366.0839 1.69%
9 390 392.6399 0.68% 200
10 410 419.1958 2.24%
11 465 445.7517 4.14% 100
12 480 472.3077 1.60%
13 499 MAPE 2.87% 0
1 2 3 4
14 526
15 552

Metode
Double
Moving
average

Periode Permintaan MA (4) MA (4x4) Nilai a Nilai b Peramalan APE

a + b (m)
1 190
2 210
3 225
4 270 223.75
5 290 248.75
6 310 273.75
7 315 296.25 260.625 331.875 23.750
8 360 318.75 284.375 353.125 22.917 356 1.11%
9 390 343.75 308.125 379.375 23.750 377 3.33%
10 410 368.75 331.875 405.625 24.583 404 1.46%
11 465 406.25 359.375 453.125 31.250 431 7.31%
12 480 436.25 388.75 483.75 31.667 485 1.04%
13 516 MAPE 2.85%
14 548
15 579

t dt t . Dt t2
1 190 190 1 b 26.55594
2 210 420 4 a 153.6364
3 225 675 9
4 270 1080 16
5 290 1450 25
6 310 1860 36
 7 315 2205 49
8 360 2880 64
9 390 3510 81
10 410 4100 100
11 465 5115 121
12 480 5760 144
78 3915 29245 650

Periode Permintaan MA (3) MA (3x3) Nilai a Nilai b Peramalan APE

a + b (m)
1 190
2 210
3 225 208.3333
4 270 235
5 290 261.6667 235 288.3333 26.667
6 310 290 262.2222 317.7778 27.778 315 1.61%
7 315 305 285.5556 324.4444 19.444 346 9.84%
8 360 328.3333 307.7778 348.8889 20.556 344 4.44%
9 390 355 329.4444 380.5556 25.556 370 5.13%
10 410 386.6667 356.6667 416.6667 30.000 407 0.73%
11 465 421.6667 387.7778 455.5556 33.889 447 3.87%
12 480 451.6667 420 483.3333 31.667 490 2.08%
13 515 MAPE 3.96%
14 547
15 579
 dt
600

500

400

300 d
t

200

100

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
AA1 BB2

Metode SES dengan alpha = 0,2 Metode SES dengan alpha

Minggu Dt Ft APE Minggu
1 225 225.00 1
2 260 225.00 13.46% 2
3 240 232.00 3.33% 3
4 235 233.60 0.60% 4
5 280 233.88 16.47% 5
6 245 243.10 0.77% 6
7 300 243.48 18.84% 7
8 255 254.79 0.08% 8
9 254.83 sum 53.56% 9
10 254.83 MAPE 7.65% 10
11 254.83 11
12 254.83 12

Metode Holt's DES dengan alpha = 0,1 dan gama = 0,1 Metode Holt's DES denga
Periode Permintaan St Trend Peramalan Periode
Dt bt Ft APE
1 225 225.00 3.33 1
2 260 231.50 3.65 2
3 240 235.64 3.70 235.15 2.02% 3
4 235 238.90 3.66 239.33 1.84% 4
5 280 246.30 4.03 242.56 13.37% 5
6 245 249.80 3.98 250.33 2.18% 6
7 300 258.40 4.44 253.77 15.41% 7
8 255 262.05 4.36 262.83 3.07% 8
9 266.41 sum 37.89% 9
10 270.77 MAPE 6.32% 10
11 275.13 11
12 279.49 12

Metode Brown's DES dengan alpha = 0,2 Metode Brown's DES den
Periode Permintaan SES DES Nilai Nilai Peramalan Periode
Dt S't S"t a b Ft APE
1 225 225.00 225.00 (inisiasi) 1
2 260 232.00 226.40 237.60 1.40 2
3 240 233.60 227.84 239.36 1.44 239.00 0.42% 3
4 235 233.88 229.05 238.71 1.21 240.80 2.47% 4
5 280 243.10 231.86 254.35 2.81 239.92 14.31% 5
6 245 243.48 234.18 252.78 2.32 257.16 4.96% 6
7 300 254.79 238.30 271.27 4.12 255.11 14.96% 7
8 255 254.83 241.61 268.05 3.30 275.39 8.00% 8
9 271.35 45.12% 9
10 274.66 10
11 277.96 11
12 281.27 12
MAPE 7.52%
 CC3

Metode SES dengan alpha = 0,2 Metode SES dengan alpha = 0,2
Dt Ft APE Minggu Dt
250 250.00 1 230
230 250.00 8.70% 2 240
320 246.00 23.13% 3 310
300 260.80 13.07% 4 330
260 268.64 3.32% 5 270
300 266.91 11.03% 6 320
375 273.53 27.06% 7 340
330 293.82 10.96% 8 320
301.06 sum 97.26% 9
301.06 MAPE 13.89% 10
301.06 11
301.06 12

Metode Holt's DES dengan alpha = 0,1 dan gama = 0,1 Metode Holt's DES dengan alpha = 0
Permintaan St Trend Peramalan Periode Permintaan
Dt bt Ft APE Dt
250 250.00 16.67 1 230
230 263.00 16.30 2 240
320 283.37 16.71 279.30 12.72% 3 310
300 300.07 16.71 300.08 0.03% 4 330
260 311.10 16.14 316.78 21.84% 5 270
300 324.51 15.87 327.24 9.08% 6 320
375 343.84 16.21 340.38 9.23% 7 340
330 357.05 15.91 360.05 9.11% 8 320
372.96 sum 62.00% 9
388.87 MAPE 10.33% 10
404.78 11
420.70 12

Metode Brown's DES dengan alpha = 0,2 Metode Brown's DES dengan alpha =
Permintaan SES DES Nilai Nilai Peramalan Periode Permintaan
Dt S't S"t a b Ft APE Dt
250 250.00 250.00 (inisiasi) 1 230
230 246.00 249.20 242.80 -0.80 2 240
320 260.80 251.52 270.08 2.32 242.00 24.38% 3 310
300 268.64 254.94 282.34 3.42 272.40 9.20% 4 330
260 266.91 257.34 276.49 2.39 285.76 9.91% 5 270
300 273.53 260.58 286.48 3.24 278.88 7.04% 6 320
375 293.82 267.23 320.42 6.65 289.72 22.74% 7 340
330 301.06 273.99 328.13 6.77 327.07 0.89% 8 320
334.89 74.15% 9
 341.66 10
348.43 11
355.19 12
MAPE 12.36%
 DD4

ES dengan alpha = 0,2 Metode SES dengan alpha = 0,2

Ft APE Minggu Dt Ft
230.00 1 300 300.00
230.00 4.17% 2 250 300.00
232.00 25.16% 3 360 290.00
247.60 24.97% 4 320 304.00
264.08 2.19% 5 350 307.20
265.26 17.11% 6 320 315.76
276.21 18.76% 7 400 316.61
288.97 9.70% 8 370 333.29
295.18 sum 102.05% 9 340.63
295.18 MAPE 14.58% 10 340.63
295.18 11 340.63
295.18 12 340.63

olt's DES dengan alpha = 0,1 dan gama = 0,1 Metode Holt's DES dengan alpha = 0,1 dan gama
St Trend Peramalan Periode Permintaan St
bt Ft APE Dt
230.00 33.33 1 300 300.00
261.00 33.10 2 250 301.00
295.69 33.26 294.10 5.13% 3 360 312.39
329.05 33.27 328.95 0.32% 4 320 319.12
353.09 32.35 362.32 34.19% 5 350 328.18
378.89 31.69 385.44 20.45% 6 320 333.56
403.53 30.99 410.59 20.76% 7 400 346.26
423.06 29.84 434.51 35.79% 8 370 355.23
452.90 sum 116.64% 9
482.74 MAPE 19.44% 10
512.58 11
542.43 12

rown's DES dengan alpha = 0,2 Metode Brown's DES dengan alpha = 0,2
SES DES Nilai Nilai Peramalan Periode Permintaan SES
S't S"t a b Ft APE Dt S't
230.00 230.00 (inisiasi) 1 300 300.00
232.00 230.40 233.60 0.40 2 250 290.00
247.60 233.84 261.36 3.44 234.00 24.52% 3 360 304.00
264.08 239.89 288.27 6.05 264.80 19.76% 4 320 307.20
265.26 244.96 285.56 5.08 294.32 9.01% 5 350 315.76
276.21 251.21 301.21 6.25 290.64 9.18% 6 320 316.61
288.97 258.76 319.17 7.55 307.46 9.57% 7 400 333.29
295.18 266.05 324.30 7.28 326.73 2.10% 8 370 340.63
331.59 74.13% 9
 338.87 10
346.15 11
353.43 12
MAPE 12.35%
 EE5

Metode SES dengan alpha = 0,2

APE Minggu Dt Ft APE
1 350 350.00
20.00% 2 360 350.00 2.78%
19.44% 3 400 352.00 12.00%
5.00% 4 340 361.60 6.35%
12.23% 5 360 357.28 0.76%
1.32% 6 380 357.82 5.84%
20.85% 7 410 362.26 11.64%
9.92% 8 430 371.81 13.53%
sum 88.77% 9 383.45 sum
MAPE 12.68% 10 383.45 MAPE
11 383.45
12 383.45

ngan alpha = 0,1 dan gama = 0,1 Metode Holt's DES dengan alpha = 0,1 dan gama = 0,1
Trend Peramalan Periode Permintaan St Trend
bt Ft APE Dt bt
6.67 1 350 350.00 -3.33
6.10 2 360 348.00 -3.20
6.63 307.10 14.69% 3 400 350.32 -2.65
6.64 319.02 0.31% 4 340 346.90 -2.72
6.88 325.76 6.93% 5 360 345.76 -2.57
6.73 335.06 4.71% 6 380 346.88 -2.20
7.33 340.29 14.93% 7 410 351.21 -1.55
7.49 353.59 4.44% 8 430 357.70 -0.74
362.72 sum 46.00% 9
370.21 MAPE 7.67% 10
377.70 11
385.19 12

dengan alpha = 0,2 Metode Brown's DES dengan alpha = 0,2

DES Nilai Nilai Peramalan Periode Permintaan SES DES
S"t a b Ft APE Dt S't S"t
300.00 (inisiasi) 1 350 350.00 350.00
298.00 282.00 -2.00 2 360 352.00 350.40
299.20 308.80 1.20 280.00 22.22% 3 400 361.60 352.64
300.80 313.60 1.60 310.00 3.13% 4 340 357.28 353.57
303.79 327.73 2.99 315.20 9.94% 5 360 357.82 354.42
306.36 326.86 2.56 330.72 3.35% 6 380 362.26 355.99
311.74 354.83 5.39 329.42 17.64% 7 410 371.81 359.15
317.52 363.74 5.78 360.22 2.64% 8 430 383.45 364.01
369.52 58.93% 9
 375.29 10
381.07 11
386.85 12
MAPE 9.82%
 52.90%
7.56%

= 0,1 dan gama = 0,1

Peramalan
Ft APE

344.80 13.80%
347.67 2.26%
344.18 4.39%
343.20 9.69%
344.68 15.93%
349.66 18.68%
356.96 sum 64.75%
356.21 MAPE 10.79%
355.47
356.96

Nilai Nilai Peramalan

a b Ft APE
(inisiasi)
353.60 0.40
370.56 2.24 354.00 11.50%
360.99 0.93 372.80 9.65%
361.23 0.85 361.92 0.53%
368.53 1.57 362.08 4.72%
384.46 3.16 370.10 9.73%
402.88 4.86 387.63 9.85%
407.74 45.98%
 412.60
417.46
422.32
MAPE 7.66%
 Periode Permintaan Peramalan APE

1 140 140.47142857 0.337%

2 159 144.4481203 9.152%
3 136 148.42481203 9.136%
4 157 152.40150376 2.929%
5 173 156.37819549 9.608%
6 131 160.35488722 22.408%
7 177 164.33157895 7.157%
8 188 168.30827068 10.474%
9 154 172.28496241 11.873%
10 179 176.26165414 1.530%
11 180 180.23834586 0.132%
12 160 184.21503759 15.134%
13 182 188.19172932 3.402%
14 192 192.16842105 0.088%
15 224 196.14511278 12.435%
16 188 200.12180451 6.448%
17 198 204.09849624 3.080%
18 206 208.07518797 1.007%
19 203 212.0518797 4.459%
20 238 216.02857143 9.232%
21 220.00526316
22 223.98195489

a 136.49473684 MAPE 7.001%

b 3.9766917293
Dt 136.49+3.97*t
t dt MA 4 APE
1 140
2 159
3 136
4 157
5 173 148 14.45%
6 131 156.25 19.27%
7 177 149.25 15.68%
8 188 159.5 15.16%
9 154 167.25 8.60%
10 179 162.5 9.22%
11 180 174.5 3.06%
12 160 175.25 9.53%
13 182 168.25 7.55%
14 192 175.25 8.72%
15 224 178.5 20.31%
16 188 189.5 0.80%
17 198 196.5 0.76%
18 206 200.5 2.67%
19 203 204 0.49%
20 238 198.75 16.49%
211.25 152.77%
9.55%