Financial Highlight
Year-end 31 Dec (Rp bn) 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F
Net Sales 49,347 45,539 64,559 78,301 86,734
Gross Profit 11,702 9,661 14,484 17,633 19,495
Net Income 3,853 5,002 7,403 9,082 10,298
PT OSO Securities EPS (Rp) 1033 1341 1985 2435 2761
Cyber 2 Tower, Earning Yield 6% 6% 6% 6% 7%
Jl. H.R. Rasuna Said Blok X-5 No. 13 ROA 6% 8% 9% 9% 9%
Setiabudi
ROE 10% 12% 16% 18% 18%
Jakarta 12950
BVPS (Rp) 10,522 11,426 12,744 13,704 15,288
Tel. : 021 2991 5300
Fax : 021 2902 1497 PE (x) 16 16 18 16 14
PBV (x) 1.6 1.9 2.8 2.8 2.5
OSO Equity Research
PT United Tractor Tbk
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Company Overview
United Tractors didirikan pada 13 Oktober 1972 sebagai distributor peralatan berat terbesar dan terkemuka di
Indonesia yang menyediakan produk-produk dari merek seperti Komatsu, UD Trucks, Scania, Bomag, Tadano, dan
Komatsu Forest.
United Tractors memiliki 212 titik layanan di seluruh Indonesia termasuk di dalamnya adalah 20 kantor cabang, 23
site support, 17 kantor tambang, 10 kantor perwakilan, 12 support point dan instalasi layanan lainnya.
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Company Products
Komatsu Komatsu Motor Grader Swamp Dozer Wheel Dozer Wheel Loader
Forwarder Harvester Head
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Combination Hand Guide Heavy Tandem Light Tandem Refuse Road Pavers
Rollers Double Vibratory Vibratory Vibratory Rollers Compactors
Rollers
All Terrain Crane Cargo Crane Telescopic Crawler Rough Terrain Crane Single Drum Rollers
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Prospect Overview
Figure IV. Coal Price & Average Price (USD/Barel) Harga Batu Bara Diperkirakan Tetap Positif Pada Tahun
2018
COAL AVG Price
130 Dengan perkiraan kondisi ekonomi nasional yang lebih baik
120 pada tahun 2018, harga komoditas batu bara yang tetap
110 positif, serta pembangunan infrastruktur yang terus
100 meningkat, diharapkan semua pilar bisnis Perseroan pada
106
90
tahun 2018 dapat melanjutkan tren pertumbuhan yang
80 87 positif.
70
60 Adapun dengan membaiknya kondisi tersebut diharapkan
50 62 mampu mendorong peningkatan permintaan alat berat,
40 produksi batu bara dan volume pengupasan tanah yang
30 dilakukan oleh PAMA, penjualan batu bara dari konsesi
02/01/2015 02/01/2016 02/01/2017 02/01/2018 tambang milik Perseroan, serta jasa konstruksi yang
dijalankan oleh Acset.
Source : Company & OSO Research
Figure V. Kegiatan Penambangan Batubara Diperkirakan Permintaan Atas Alat Berat Dari Sektor
Pertambangan, Perkebunan Dan Konstruksi Masih Cukup
Tinggi Sehingga Mampu Menjadi Pendukung Pendapatan
UNTR
Peningkatan penjualan alat berat di sektor perkebunan dan
kehutanan lebih didorong karena kebutuhan untuk
melakukan replacement alat berat dan kegiatan intensifikasi
di sektor tersebut.
Sementara itu, market alat berat di sektor konstruksi juga
mengalami pertumbuhan seiring dengan alokasi budget
pemerintah yang meningkat dan massive-nya pembangunan
proyek infrastruktur. Namun, penjualan Perseroan di sektor
konstruksi, sedikit mengalami penurunan dikarenakan cukup
banyak produk-produk yang ditawarkan oleh kompetitor.
Source : Company & OSO Research
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Financial Overview
Figure VII. Revenue (Bn. IDR) Perseroan memilki fundamental yang kuat. Pada tahun 2017
Revenue Growth (YoY) perseroan menghasilkan pendapatan sebesar Rp 64.6 trilliun
70,000 64,559 50% atau tumbuh 42% secara tahunan (yoy), dibandingkan tahun
42% 40% 2016 pendapatan turun sebesar 8% menjadi Rp 45.5 trilliun
60,000 51,012 53,142 49,347
45,539
dari Rp 49.3 trilliun di tahun 2015. Pendapatan tumbuh
50,000 30%
signifikan disebabkan faktor harga batu bara mengalami
40,000 20% pertumbuhan. Pada tahun 2017 harga batu bara meningkat
30,000 4% 10% sebesar 6% menjadi $100 per barel. Peningkatan harga batu
20,000 -9% -7% -8% 0% bara juga berdampak positif bagi perseroan karena
10,000 -10% permintaan penggunaan mesin kontraktor pertambangan
- -20% batu bara sendiri.
FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017
Source : Company & OSO Research Pada posisi laba bersih perseroan pada tahun 2017
mengalami pertumbuhan sebesar 48% menjadi Rp 7.4 trilliun
Figure VIII. Net Income (Bn. dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya tumbuh sebesar 30%
IDR) menjadi Rp 5 trilliun. Sehingga perseroan menghasilkan laba
Net Income Growth (%)
7,403
bersih per saham sebesar Rp 1.985, sedangkan perseroan
8,000 60%
membagikan deviden sebesar Rp 893 atau rasio deviden pay
5,362 5,002 40% out rasio (DPR) sebesar 45%, meningkat dari sebelumnya
6,000 48%
4,834 40%.Rata-rata 5 tahun terakhir perseroan membagikan
3,853 30% 20%
4,000
deviden dengan rasio DPR 49%.
11% 0%
2,000
Perseroan rata-rata 5 tahun terakhir menghasilkan rasio net
-20% profit margin sebesar 10%.Pada tahun 2017 NPM sebesar
-15%
- -28% -40% 11.5%, 2016 NPM 11% dan pada tahun 2015 NPM 7.8%.
FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017
Source : Company & OSO Research
Kobelco
14%
Construction
Machinery -
Distributors Construction
Contractor Hitachi Caterpilar
45%
4% 13% 16%
Source : Company & OSO Research
Source : Company & OSO Research
Pangsa pasar domestik Komatsu sebesar 36% dari total
domestic market share.
Penjualan Komatsu terbesar dengan mengungguli
Caterpilar 16%, Hitachi 13%, Kobelco 14% dan lainnya
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Figure XI. Penjualan Alat Berat Komatsu (unit) Figure XII. Penjualan Alat Berat 2016 – 2017 (unit)
Figure XIII. Pendapatan Mesin Konstruksi (Bn.IDR) Selama Januari - Juli 2018 UNTR membukukan penjualan
Komatsu sebesar 2.876 unit atau mencapai 63,9% dari
30
total target penjualan tahun ini.
24.7
25 Sebagian besar penjualan Komatsu tersebut atau 55%
dipasarkan untuk segmen pertambangan. Baik pasar
20
15 14.6 pembelian baru maupun perusahaan tambang yang
13.6 13.8
15 melakukan replacement terhadap alat berat mereka yang
10 sudah tua.
5
Pendapatan UNTR melalui anak usahanya PT Pamapersada
Nusantara (PAMA) terdampak positif dari adanya
0 pelemahan Rupiah, dimana setiap 1% USD/IDR akan
2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD 6M
menambah 1,7% pendapatan PAMA.
2018
Source : Company & OSO Research
Figure XV. Kontrak konstruksi & Pendapatan (Bn.IDR) Figure XVI. Energi 2017
Industri Konstruksi Pendapatan Bersih
9.00 8.40
8.00
2 x 1,000 MW
7.00
6.00 PLTU JAWA-4 (Tanjung Jati 5&6)
5.00 3.80
4.00 3.10 3.00
Langkah Awal Perseroan Memasuki Industri Energi
3.00 1.80
2.00 1.20 1.10 1. PLTU PAMA 1, Kapasitas 2 x 15 MW
0.62
1.00 2. PLTU JAWA -4 (Tanjung Jati 5 & 6 Kapasitas 2 x 1,000
0.00 MW
2014 2015 2016 2017
Source : Company & OSO Research
Source : Company & OSO Research
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Figure XIX. Komatsu Sales (Unit) Figure XX. Komatsu Sales Per Segmen (Unit)
YTD 7M 17 YTD 7M 18
3500 Agro Construction Forestry Mining
1800
3000 1600
15% 1400
2500
1200
2000
21%
14% 1000
9% 800
1500 22%
13% 600
1000
55% 400
500 51% 200
0 0
YTD 7M 17 YTD 7M 18 Komatsu YTD Mining Forestry Construction
Sales Vol (in
Source : Company & OSO Research Source : Company
unit)& OSO Research
Figure XXI. Target Komatsu Sales (Unit) Figure XXII. Target Overburden Removal (Bn Bcm)
5000 4500 1000 900
4500 900 801
4000 3788 800 2017
3500 3221 2017 700 623.8
3000 600 8M 18
2500 500
8M 18 400 2018F
2000
1500 300
1000 200
2018F
500 100
0 0
Komatsu Overburden removal
Source : Company & OSO Research Source : Company & OSO Research
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Figure XXIII. Susunan kepemilikan Pasca Akuisisi UNTR akan mengakuisisi Agincourt Resorces lewat anak
usaha miliknya yakni PT Danusa Tambang Nusantara. Pasca
akuisisi, PT Agincourt Resources akan dimiliki 95% oleh PT
Angincourt Resorces
Danusa Tambang Nusantara dan 5% PT Artha Nurgraha
Agung. UNTR memiliki 60% saham Danusa Tambang dan
40% dimiliki oleh Pampersada Nusantara, yang juga anak
usaha UNTR.
Source : Company & OSO Research Berdasarkan catatan perseroan, selama Januari - Juli 2018
emiten dengan kode saham UNTR tersebut membukukan
penjualan Komatsu sebesar 2.876 unit atau mencapai 63,9%
dari total target penjualan tahun ini.
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Financial Forecasting
Figure XXIV. Aktiva 2015-2019F (Bn.IDR) Figure XXV. Passiva 2015-2019F (Bn)
Total Current Assets Total Non Current Assets Total Non Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities
65,106 Total Shareholder Equity
70,000 55,998
60,000
60,000 55,801 50,558
51,202 47,538
50,000 42,622
50,000 42,197 39,250
39,260 40,000
40,000
30,000 30,000
20,000 20,000
10,000 10,000
- -
2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F
Source : Company & OSO Research Source : Company & OSO Research
Figure XXVI. Ebita & Ebitda Margin 2015-2019F (Bn) Figure XXVII. Net Sales,NI & NPM 2015-2019F (Bn)
Ebitda Ebitda Margin Net Sales Net Income Net Profit Margin
13.0% 86,734
100,000
30% 86,734 94,000 11.5% 90,000
78,301 12.0% 78,301
84,000 11.0% 80,000
25% 11.0% 64,559 11.9%
64,559 74,000 11.6% 70,000
20% 64,000 10.0% 49,347 60,000
49,347 45,539
54,000 50,000
15% 45,539 9.0%
44,000 40,000
10% 34,000 8.0% 30,000
24,000 7,403 9,082 10,298 20,000
5% 7.0% 7.8%
3,853 5,002 10,000
14,000
0% 4,000 6.0% -
2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F
Source : Company & OSO Research Source : Company & OSO Research
Source : Company & OSO Research Source : Company & OSO Research
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Figure XXX. Price and Best Standard EPS Figure XXXI. EVA and WACC 2008-2017
Price BEst Standard EPS, Adj+ 2018* A 6.0 30
EVA WACC
50000 3000 4.0 25
40000 2500
2.0 20
2000
30000 0.0 15
1500
20000 -2.0 10
Millions
1000
10000 500 -4.0 5
0 0 -6.0 0
25/02/2016 25/02/2018 01/09/2008 01/09/2011 01/09/2014 01/09/2017
Source : Company & OSO Research Source : Company & OSO Research
Figure XXXII. P/E Multiple Average Figure XXXIII. EV/Ebitda Multiple Average
18 9.0
8.5
8.0
16
7.5
7.0
14 6.5
6.0
UNTR IJ Equity Multiple (BF P/E) 5.5
12 UNTR IJ Equity Multiple (BF EV/EBITDA)
Multiple Average (2 Years) 5.0 Multiple Average (2 Years)
'+1 Standard Deviation from Multiple Average '+1 Standard Deviation from Multiple Average
'-1 Standard Deviation from Multiple Average 4.5
'-1 Standard Deviation from Multiple Average
10 4.0
19/09/2016 19/06/2017 19/03/2018 19/09/2016 19/06/2017 19/03/2018
Source : Company & OSO Research Source : Company & OSO Research
45000 50000
45000
40000
40000
35000
35000
30000
30000
25000
25000
Px = 32200 (Actual) @ P/BV of 2.4x
20000 Px = 32200 (Actual) @ P/S of
Px = 44143.21 @ P/BV of 3.3x 20000
1.6x
15000 Px = 38863.28 @ P/BV of 2.9x
Px = 28303.4 @ P/BV of 2.1x
15000 Px = 46614.87 @ P/S of 2.3x
10000 10000
19/09/2016 19/06/2017 19/03/2018 19/09/2016 19/06/2017 19/03/2018
Source : Company & OSO Research Source : Company & OSO Research
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Cash Flow
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F
Net Income 3,853 5,002 7,403 9,082 10,298
Depreciation & Amortization 3,728 3,289 3,505 4,246 4,706
Others 2,859 599 (1,258) 1,226 (1,062)
Working Capital change 1,656 1,186 2,386 2,925 9,780
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Income Statement
Year-end 31 Dec (Rp bn) 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F
Finance ratio
Year-end 31 Des 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F
Liquidity Ratio
Current Ratio(x) 2.15 2.30 1.80 1.75 1.70
Quick Rasio(x) 1.30 1.24 1.07 0.91 0.76
Net Working Capital(Rp.Bn) 20,979 23,841 22,826 29,020 32,170
Activity Ratio
Asset Turn Over(x) 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8
Inventory Turn Over(x) 4.5 5.0 6.4 5.3 5.6
Receivable Turn Over(x) 4 4 4 5 5
Inventory Turnover (Days) 80.75 72.31 57.25 68.68 65.42
Raceivable Turnover (Days) 85 88 94 81 69
Solvability Ratio
Debt to Equity Ratio (x) 0.57 0.50 0.73 0.89 0.95
Debt to Asset Ratio (x) 0.36 0.33 0.42 0.47 0.49
Profitability Ratio
Gross Profit Margin 23.7% 21.2% 22.4% 22.5% 22.5%
Operating Profit Margin 17.2% 14.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7%
Net Profit Margin 7.8% 11.0% 11.5% 11.6% 11.9%
ROA 6.2% 7.8% 9.0% 9.4% 9.3%
ROE 9.8% 11.7% 15.6% 17.8% 18.1%
Growth Rates
EPS Growth Rate 30% 48% 23% 13%
Sales Growth Rate -8% 42% 21% 11%
EBIT Growth Rate -21% 60% 22% 10%
Net Income Growth Rate 30% 48% 23% 13%
Balance Ratio
EDR 175% 199% 137% 112% 105%
EER 64% 66% 69% 75% 77%
EAR 64% 67% 58% 53% 51%
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Research Team
Disclosure Of Interests
As of the date of this report,
1. The research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of this report hereby certify that:
the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities
and issuers; and
no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views
expressed in this research report.
2. The research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of this report, or his/her as sociate(s), do not
have any interest (including any direct or indirect ownership of securities, arrangement for financial accommodation or
serving as an officer) in any company mentioned in this report
3. PT OSO Securities Indonesia on a business in Indonesia in investment banking, proprietary trading or agency broking in
relation to securities
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared by PT OSO Sekuritas Indonesia on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for
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This report has been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of PT.
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