Review on Reliability Engineering Contoh Probabilitas

Probabilitas Pembangkit listrik tenaga uap membeli empat buah boiler. Jika
kemungkinan tiap boiler dapat bekerja tanpa rusak dalam satu
• Dalam kehidupan selalu mengandung ketidakpastian tahun adalah 50%, bagaimana kemungkinan kejadian pada
• Berlaku untuk setiap fenomena, misal: panjang batang, 
Berlaku untuk setiap fenomena, misal: panjang batang, akhir tahun pertama.
kecepatan angin, umur mesin. Karena kondisi boiler hanya baik (G) dan rusak (B) setelah
• Experimen: aktifitas untuk mendapatkan hasil, yang  satu tahun, maka kondisis di akhir tahun pertama adalah sbb.
mengandung ketidakpastian dan belum diketahui 
dengan pasti hasilnya.  Contoh: menguji kekuatan tarik 
baja, mendata keandalan komponen pompa, dsb.
• Kejadian (Event): hasil dari satu experimen
K j di (E t) h il d i t i
• Frekuensi relatif: perbandingan munculnya sebuah 
even dengan total eksperimen

Contoh Probabilitas Lima Fungsi Penting

ƒ Fungsi densitas kegagalan (probability density function,
• Untuk soal boiler di atas, berapa (1) probabilitas 1  pdf): untuk menentukan jumlah kegagalan yang terjadi
boiler dalam kondisi bekerja (2) probabilitas setidaknya  pada rentang waktu tertentu, relatif terhadap jumlah
3 boiler dalam kondisi bekerja di akhir tahun
3 boiler dalam kondisi bekerja di akhir tahun. populasi.
populasi
• Dari 16 kemungkinan kejadian, hanya satu kejadian  ƒ Failure rate (laju kegagalan): untuk menentukan jumlah
yang dapat muncul (saling eksklusif). kegagalan yang terjadi per satuan waktu, mengacu pada
jumlah populasi yang ada pada awal rentang waktu yang
• Karena P(G)=P(B)=0.5, maka probabilitas ke‐16  ditinjau.
kejadian tersebut sama, yaitu =1/16 ƒ Reliability (keandalan): untuk menentukan probabilitas
(1) Probabilitas 1 boiler bekerja = 4/16 
(1) Probabilitas 1 boiler bekerja  4/16 = ¼
¼ keberhasilan sebuah unit untuk menyelesaikan misi pada
(2) Probabilitas setidaknya 3 boiler bekerja waktu yang ditetapkan dengan kondisi operasi tertentu.
= Prob (3 boiler bekerja) + Prob (4 boiler bekerja) ƒ Conditional reliability (keandalan bersyarat): untuk
menentukan probabilitas sukses dalam misi jika terbukti
= 4/16 + 1/16 = 5/16 bertahan setelah misi sebelumnya.
ƒ Mean life (umur rata-rata): umur rata-rata sebelum gagal.

(c) 2011 by Edy Suwondo 1

 Fungsi Densitas Kegagalan (pdf) Fungsi Densitas Kegagalan (pdf)
Reliability of an item, Eq. (2.1)
where: 1 d [N F ( T ) ]
f (T ) = (2.3)
T = end of observation/test period. NT dT
NS(T) = number of survived items in the test
test. th
therefore
f
NT(T) = the original (total) test sample size. d [R(T )]
NF(T) = number of items failed in the test. = − f (T ) (2.4)
dT
Derivative
T1 R (T1 )

(2.2) ∫ f (T )dT = − ∫ d[ R(T )] = 1 − R(T ) = Q(T )

1 1 (2.5)
where: 0 0

= number from the population failing at about time T in dT

= instantaneous number failing, per one unit basis of Reliability: (2.6)

the original population at time T (relative frequency,
failure density)

Laju Kegagalan (Failure Rate) Reliability

Failure Rate Estimate
NF (ΔT ) Relation to failure rate
λ̂(T ) = (2.7)
N B (T ) × ΔT (Substitution of eq. (2.4)
(2.4) to eq. (2.8))
NF(ΔT) (ΔT)
= number of units failing in age increment (Δ d [R ((T
T )]
λ (T ) dT = −
NB(T) = number of units in the test at the beginning of R (T )
(ΔT)
the age increment (Δ
d [R(T )]
T R (T )
(ΔT) = age increment during which the NF(ΔT) units fail
∫ λ (T )dT = − ∫ R(T )
= − ln[ R(T )] + ln(1) = − ln[ R(T )]
Plot of failure rate estimates for table 4.3 is given below 0 T 1

(ΔT) → 0 instantaneous failure rate, or called hazard rate

If (Δ ∫
− λ (T ) dT
R(T ) = e 0

1 d [N F (T )] (2.9)
λ (T ) = Exponential
E ti l case (constant
( t t failure
f il rate)
t )
N B (T ) dT T

1 N T d [N F (ΔT )] 1 ⎧ 1 d [N F (T )]⎫ ∫
− λ (T ) dT
− λT
T

λ (T ) = = ⎨ ⎬ R (T ) = e 0
=e 0
= e − λT (2.10)
N B (T ) N T dT N B (T ) / N T ⎩ N T dT ⎭
1 d [R(T )] λe − λT
f (T ) (2.8) λ (T ) = − = − λT = λ
λ (T ) = R(T ) dT e
R(T )

(c) 2011 by Edy Suwondo 2

 Reliability
Mean Life
Conditional Reliability
or R( T + t ) (2.11) ∞
R( T + t ) = R( T ) × R( T , t ) R( T ,t ) =
R( T ) E( T ) = T = m = ∫ T f ( T ) dT
R(T,t) = the reliability of a new mission of t hours duration, γ
having already operated successfully for T hours. For exponential case
T +t
− ∫ λ ( T )dT
e 0 1
R( T ,t ) = T =m=
λ
T
− ∫ λ ( T )dT
e 0
F exponential
For ti l case
T +t
− ∫ λ ( T )dT
e 0
e−λ( T +t ) e− λT × e− λt
R( T ,t ) = = −λ( T )
= = e− λt (2.12)
e− λT
T
− ∫ λ ( T )dT e
e 0

Contoh Bath-tub Curve Failures due to wear-out

plus chance causes occur
Failures due to early plus normal
chance causes occur

Failure rate, λ, failures.//hr

hyper-exponential

Chance failures only occur

exponential

λ = 1/MTBF

F Early life Useful period Wear-out life period

period Life to beginning of wear-out

Operating life (age), T hr

(c) 2011 by Edy Suwondo 3

 Percentage of Failure Rates (Aircraft) Early Failures
Occur early in the operating life of a unit and are characterized by
decreasing failure rate with increasing age.
Early failure causes must be minimized/eliminated to prevent
troublesome and costly corrective maintenance.
Early failure causes:
- Poor manufacturing techniques, quality control, or workmanship
- Insufficient burning in, breaking in, debugging
- Improper storage, package, transport
- Improper installation or start up
ƒ Examples
- Wrong type off oil
- Too high ambient temperature, too high vibration level
- Misalignment
Actions:
- System modification (not components)

Random/Chance Failures Wear Out Failures

Occur unexpectedly in time at random irregular intervals. Occur late in the operating life and characterized by an increasing
Have a negative exponential failure distribution (constant failure rate) failure rate with increasing age.
Monitor so that FR < FR target
Wear Out failure causes
Random failure causes: - Physical wear: seals, bearings
- Overlap of design strength and experienced stress during operation - Fatigue: cyclic loads
- Insufficient safety factors - Corrosion
- Occurrence of higher loads than expected (or lower strength) - Material strength deterioration (mechanical, electrical, chemical,
- Defect product hydraulic)
- Human error in usage - Poor service, maintenance, repair
- Misapplication - Short design life
- Abuse
Ab
- Unexplainable causes Examples:
- Act of God (storms, lightning, earthquakes, floods, etc.) Seals
A/C tire
Actions: Actions:
- Modification Periodic maintenance (Hard Time)
- No P.M.

(c) 2011 by Edy Suwondo 4

 Pengumpulan
Failure Recording Data

Failure Failure Failure Ya Jumlah Data Tidak

X1 X2 X3 Cukup?
available state Analisis Non
Non- Analisis
Parametrik Parametrik

unavailable state
Y1 Y2 Kesesuaian dengan
Konstruksi
mekanisme kegagalan
Histogram
X = Mean Time To Failure (MTTF)
Y = Mean Time To Repair (MTTR) Pengujian Distribusi
MTBF = MTTF ?? dan kecocokan empirik
p

Maintenance Relevant Property

Fungsi distribusi
Hr = Operating Hours Revolution terpilih
CY = Cycles Actuations
CT = Calendar Time Miles Perhitungan
Keandalan
(Stop)

Pengolahan Data Kegagalan Contoh Ploting: Distribusi Weibull

Probability Plotting
DUA pendekatan untuk menganalisis data: Example: N = 10, r = 6, Tj = 93, 34 ,16, 120, 53, 75.
Analisis nonparametrik 1.
Tidak ada asumsi berkaitan dengan distribusi sampel.
Dilakukan konstruksi histogram dari sampel.
Sifat sampel seperti mean, varians, dan statistik lainnya
dihasilkan tanpa mengacu pada distribusi tertentu.
Dapat dilakukan bila jumlah data cukup realistis (≥30)
Analisis parametrik
Menitikberatkan pada pemilihan fungsi densitas (pdf) dan
evaluasi parameter distribusi.
Pemilihan distribusi didasarkan fenomena yang ada atau
sifat-sifat distribusi. 2. Plot of Weibull paper (next slide)
Dilakukan uji kecocokan empirik (uji Mann (Weibull), uji (If the line is straight, continue step 3. If not, find γ then step 3)
Kolmogorov-Smirnov (normal), uji Barlett’s (exponensial)) 3. Weibull shape parameter: parallel line Æ β = 1.2
Fungsi distribusi yang sering digunakan: exponensial,
Weibull, normal, lognormal dan extreme-values.

(c) 2011 by Edy Suwondo 5

 Distribusi Weibull Distribusi Weibull
4. Scale parameter η: 63.2% of Q(T) gives estimate of η, η = 144 hr
(For all Weibull pdf, 36.8% of unit survive for T = γ + η. All R(T)
plots cross at R(T) = 0.368 and T = γ + η for all β)
5. If the p g line, γ = 0, and
plot is straight
1.2
1.2 −1 ⎛ T −0 ⎞
1 .2 ⎛ T − 0 ⎞ −⎜ ⎟
f (T ) = ⎜ ⎟ e ⎝ 144 ⎠
144 ⎝ 144 ⎠ β −1 ⎛ T −γ ⎞
β

β ⎛T −γ ⎞ −⎜⎜
⎝ η ⎠
⎟⎟
otherwise f (T ) = ⎜⎜ ⎟ e
η ⎝ η ⎟⎠

MR = Median Rank: 50% confidence level estimate of Q(T)

(applied for ungrouped data) Note: Use MR table for the
appropriate SAMPLE size, not the number of failure data.
Rumus penentuan MR (50%):
F(ti)=(i-0.3)/(N+0.4)

Plot data obtain the

reliability
characteristic and the Plot of the MR versus Tj
parameters of the and MR versus (Tj – Ti)
Weibull pdf. to obtain the reliability
characteristic and the
parameters of the
Weibull pdf

(c) 2011 by Edy Suwondo 6