Ekonomi, Moneter dan Keuangan

Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter |0

 TINJAUAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER
Januari 2014

I.

Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter|1

Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter|2
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 2013
2012
IMF Consensus Forecast BI
Output Dunia 3,2 2.9 2.9 2.9
Amerika Serikat 2.8 1.6 1.7 1.6
Eropa -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6
Jepang 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.0
Negara Berkembang 4.9 4.5 5.0 4.7
Negara Berkembang Asia 6.4 6.3 6.6 -
China 7.7 7.6 7.7 7.5
India 3.2 3.8 4.6 4.3
ASEAN-5 6.2 5.0 - -
Sumber: WEO Okt 2013, Consensus Forecast Des 2013, BI

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Indeks Indeks

ITB (sk.kanan) Pendapatann Utilisasi Kapasitas Jam Kerja

Sumber: BPS

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 Belanja Modal Belanja
Barang
Belanja
Pegawai

Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan, diolah

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Indeks

ekspansi
ISM Manufaktur
ISM Jasa-jasa

kontraksi
Data: Des 2013
Sumber: Bloomberg

Sumber: BPS

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Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter|9
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 10
T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 11
 Saham

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 12
Rp/USD Harian
Rata2 Bulanan

Negara Berkembang
Negara Maju (Eropa)

Data: Des 2013

Sumber: Bloomberg

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T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 14
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 %,yoy
7.5 Ekspektasi Inflasi 2013
7.30 7.30
Ekspektasi Inflasi 2014 7.20
7.00
7.0 6.90 7.10

6.40
6.5 6.40 6.30
6.10
6.20
6.0 5.80 5.90 5.80

5.60 5.60
5.50
5.5 5.40 5.40 5.40
5.30 5.30 5.30
5.20 5.10 5.20 5.205.20 5.20 5.10 5.20

5.0 5.20 5.10 5.10

5.20 5.00

4.5

4.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2012 2013

Dec-13
Commodities
%,mtm Contribution (%, mtm)
Inflation
BERAS 0.59 0.03
TELUR AYAM RAS 3.95 0.03
CABE RAWIT 15.52 0.03
TOMAT SAYUR 17.33 0.03
BAYAM 5.61 0.01
MINYAK GORENG 1.08 0.01
TOMAT BUAH 13.32 0.01
DAGING SAPI 0.99 0.01
BAWANG MERAH 1.29 0.01
KEMBUNG/GEMBUNG 2.40 0.01
Deflation
CABE MERAH -6.80 -0.04
DAGING AYAM RAS -2.16 -0.03
JERUK -1.85 -0.01

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 Dec-13
Commodities
%,mtm Contribution (%, mtm)
Inflation
BAHAN BAKAR RUMAH TANGGA 2.58 0.07
ROKOK KRETEK 0.75 0.01
ROKOK KRETEK FILTER 0.38 0.01
TARIP KERETA API 7.62 0.01
BENSIN 0.16 0.01

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 17
8.0 Rp T 10.0
% Vol DF O/N (RHS) Vol PUAB O/N (RHS) %, eop
7.5 120
rBI Rate rPUAB O/N 9.0 PUAB JIBOR
7.0 rDF O/N 31-Dec-13
100
8.0
6.5
rPUAB : 5.91% 80 7.0
6.0
29-Nov-13
5.5 60 6.0

5.0 Avg Vol DF: Rp 108.1 T

40 5.0
RRT Vol PUAB : Rp 10.2 T
4.5 28-Dec-12
20 4.0
4.0
3.0
3.5 -
O/N 1W 1M O/N 1W 1M
Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13

17 Rp T
2008 2009 2011
15
2012 2013
13

11

3
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

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 2012 2013
Suku Bunga (%)
Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Ags Sep Okt Nov
BI Rate 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.25 7.25 7.50
Penjaminan Deposito 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.75 6.25 6.25 7.00 7.00 7.25
Dep 1 bulan (rata-rata tertimbang) 5.42 5.58 5.49 5.43 5.51 5.42 5.53 5.60 5.90 6.19 6.73* 7.10 7.28
Kredit Modal Kerja (KMK) 11.61 11.49 11.49 11.45 11.44 11.44 11.46 11.41 11.66 11.63 11.79 11.93 12.06
Kredit Investasi (KI) 11.24 11.27 11.29 11.27 11.24 11.21 11.17 11.14 11.29 11.37 11.49 11.65 11.73
Kredit Konsumsi (KK) 13.53 13.58 13.40 13.22 13.28 13.22 13.20 13.14 13.06 13.05 13.03 13.08 13.12

9
% %
8
15
12.34 7
13 6
5
11
Selisih rKredit - rDepo1: 4
9 506bps 3
2
7
7.28 1
5 0
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07

Jul-09
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09

Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13

Spread-rhs Sb Kredit Sb Dep 1 bln BI rate Sb LPS

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 -10
-3
4
11
18
25
32
39
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08

% yoy
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08

Total
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09

KMK
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10

KI
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11

KK
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13

per Nov 2013

BI Rate (RHS)
May-13
Jul-13

%
Sep-13
Nov-13

5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 20
 Indikator 2012 2013
Utama Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Juni Juli Agt Sep Okt Nov

Total Aset (T Rp) 4,103.5 4,262.6 4,211.0 4,237.1 4,313.8 4,367.8 4,418.7 4,461.8 4,510.3 4,581.1 4,737.3 4,717.0 4,817.8
DPK (T Rp) 3,130.5 3,225.2 3,204.5 3,207.3 3,243.1 3,299.4 3,349.7 3,374.4 3,392.9 3,440.2 3,526.2 3,520.9 3,563.4
Kredit * (T Rp) 2,631.0 2,707.9 2,688.1 2,718.7 2,768.4 2,824.2 2,887.5 2,959.1 3,021.1 3,067.4 3,170.8 3,182.9 3,214.4

LDR* (%) 84.0 84.0 83.9 84.8 85.4 85.6 86.2 87.7 89.0 89.2 89.3 89.7 90.2
NPLs Gross* (%) 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9
CAR (%) 17.4 17.4 19.2 19.2 18.9 18.6 18.4 18.0 18.0 17.9 18.0 18.4 18.6
NIM (%) 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
ROA (%) 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
* tanpa channeling

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Rp triliun
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total Total Total Tw I Tw II Tw III Tw IV Total Tw I Tw II Tw III Okt Nov Des Total
Non Bank 47.5 123.5 120 13.6 47.3 10.8 37.2 108.9 16.9 53.3 3.1 2.5 5.5 6.4 87.7
Saham 12.4 78 62.8 2.4 5.6 1.8 11.2 21 3.4 24.3 2.3 0.1 0 2.2 32.3
o/w Emiten Sektor Keuangan 6.6 20.6 20.4 0 2.3 0.7 0 3.1 0.3 4.4 0.7 0 0 0 5.3
Obligasi 25.8 34.7 51.3 9.6 41 7.1 20.1 77.7 12.7 27.7 0.3 2.1 4.5 3.3 50.5
o/w Emiten Sektor Keuangan 17.5 27 41.4 8.3 26.2 4.8 14.4 53.7 9.9 13.5 0 2.1 3.3 2.1 30.8
MTN dan Promissory Notes 3.9 10.8 5.9 1.6 0.8 1.9 5.9 10.1 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.3 1 0.8 4.9
o/w Emiten Sektor Keuangan 3.2 1.9 1.3 0.1 0.6 0.1 2.1 0.7 1.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 3.2

Rp T
14
12
10
IPO
8
6
4
2
0
Apr

Jul

Oct
Feb
Mar

May

Dec
Jun

Aug
Sep
Jan

Nov

2013

Rp T
18
16
14
12 Obligasi Korporasi
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2013

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25 14
%, yoy %

20 12

15 10

10 8

5 6

M2 M1 MB BI Rate (RHS)
0 4
Jan-11Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12Jan-13Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13

Grafik 2.37
Pertumbuhan Likuiditas Perekonomian

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6000 % 11
JCI BI RATE (RHS)
5000 10
4000 9
8
3000
7
2000 6
1000 5
0 4

Aug-11
Mar-11
Jun-07

Sep-08

Jun-12
Feb-09

Oct-10

Sep-13
Jul-09
Dec-09
Jan-07

May-10
Nov-07
Apr-08

Jan-12

Nov-12
Apr-13

Properti
Pertanian
Perdagangan
Konsumsi
Aneka Industri
Industri Dasar
Keuangan
Pertambangan
Infrastruktur
IHSG

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6.000 20
15
5.000
10
4.000 5
0
3.000
-5
2.000 -10
-15
1.000
Net Beli/Jual (RHS) IHSG -20
0 -25
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

%
20 Yield SUN 10 Tahun 1.400
18 1.200
CDS (RHS)
16
1.000
14
800
12
600
10
400
8
6 200

4 0
Mei 08

Mei 09

Mei 10
Jul 08
Sep 08

Nop 10

Mei 11
Jul 11

Mei 12

Mei 13
Nop 08

Jul 09
Sep 09
Nop 09

Jul 10
Sep 10

Sep 11
Nop 11

Jul 12
Sep 12
Nop 12

Jul 13
Sep 13
Nop 13
Mar 08

Jan 09
Mar 09

Mar 10

Mar 11

Mar 12

Mar 13
Jan 08

Jan 10

Jan 11

Jan 12

Jan 13

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 Rp. Trillion %
25 Net Foreign Buy/Sell Yield SUN (RHS) 15,0

15 13,0
11,0
5
9,0
(5)
7,0
(15)
5,0
(25) 3,0
(35) 1,0

Dec

Mei

Dec

Dec
Feb
Mar

May
Apr

July
August
Sept

Feb
Mar
Apr

Juli

Mar
Apr

Juli

Sept
Jan

June

Oct
Nov

Jan

Okt

Okt
Juni

Nov

Jan

Juni

Nov
Agust

Agust
Sept

Feb

Mei
2011 2012 2013

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 2012 2013
SEKTOR KEUANGAN
Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Juni Juli Agt Sep Okt Nov Des

SUKU BUNGA & SAHAM

Suku bunga SBI 9 bln 1) 4.80 4.84 4.86 4.87 4.89 5.02 5.28 5.52 5.86 6.96 6.97 6.96 -
2)
Suku bunga deposito 1 bln 5.58 5.49 5.43 5.51 5.42 5.53 5.60 5.90 6.19 6.73 7.10 7.28 -
2)
Suku bunga deposito 3 bln 5.76 5.89 5.92 5.64 5.73 5.68 5.72 5.99 6.16 6.58 6.95 7.30 -
JIBOR satu minggu 2) 4.32 4.30 4.28 4.28 4.28 4.27 4.46 4.93 5.32 5.89 6.09 5.89 -
IHSG Indeks 3) 4,317 4,454 4,796 4,941 5,034 5,069 4,819 4,610 4,195 4,316 4,511 4,256 4,274

BESARAN MONETER (miliar Rp)

Uang Primer 704,843 664,007 655,486 664,935 667,122 681,508 691,678 750,446 713,448 715,662 734,266 750,592 -
M1(C+D) 841,721 787,916 786,606 810,112 832,273 822,930 858,557 879,986 855,783 864,637 856,146 866,718 -
Uang Kartal (C) 361,967 326,885 321,541 331,226 324,393 334,087 347,204 383,932 359,417 357,001 363,772 372,086 -
Uang giral (D) 479,755 461,031 465,065 478,886 507,880 488,843 511,353 496,054 496,365 507,636 492,374 494,632 -
Uang Beredar Luas (M2 = C+D+T+S) 3,305,744 3,268,845 3,280,478 3,322,586 3,360,987 3,426,359 3,413,437 3,506,574 3,502,420 3,580,934 3,576,730 3,610,668 -
Uang kuasi (T) 2,453,602 2,470,101 2,483,011 2,500,342 2,515,813 2,588,094 2,543,285 2,608,175 2,625,946 2,691,903 2,697,619 2,719,258 -
Surat Berharga Selain Saham (S) 10,420 10,829 10,861 12,132 12,902 15,335 11,594 18,413 20,691 24,394 22,965 24,692 -

Tagihan pada Dunia Usaha - -

Kredit-Bank Umum - -
Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Uang Beredar 3,307,577 3,268,845 3,280,478 3,322,586 3,360,987 3,426,359 3,413,437 3,506,574 3,502,420 3,584,017 3,576,758 3,614,408 -
Aktiva Luar Negeri Bersih 965,442 960,233 937,714 947,362 940,165 935,590 833,821 849,697 879,470 972,110 955,881 987,760 -
Aktiva Dalam Negeri Bersih 2,342,135 2,308,612 2,342,764 2,375,225 2,420,822 2,490,768 2,579,616 2,656,876 2,622,950 2,611,907 2,620,877 2,626,648 -
Tagihan Bersih kepada Pemerintah Pusat 389,827 378,366 361,337 366,902 341,302 322,822 330,871 377,080 340,332 342,434 337,226 353,434 -
Tagihan Kepada Sektor Lainnya 2,917,452 2,894,235 2,924,875 2,973,874 3,028,028 3,109,337 3,180,790 3,235,593 3,285,901 3,382,424 3,387,310 3,454,194 -

PERTUMBUHAN BESARAN MONETER (%,YOY)

Uang Primer 14.89 11.77 13.22 13.46 11.82 12.65 10.25 18.18 8.43 12.02 13.29 15.84 -
M1(C+D) 16.42 13.15 15.13 13.42 15.45 9.80 10.15 14.02 10.79 8.69 10.47 8.15 -
Uang Kartal (C) 17.61 14.20 14.79 15.39 11.53 13.34 10.34 21.74 9.89 9.66 11.55 13.76 -
Uang giral (D) 15.54 12.42 15.36 12.10 18.09 7.51 10.03 8.68 11.45 8.02 9.69 4.28 -
Uang Beredar Luas (M2 = C+D+T+S) 14.89 14.50 15.11 14.10 14.82 14.52 11.87 14.76 13.35 14.53 13.09 12.62 -
Uang kuasi (T) 14.66 15.14 15.45 14.54 14.83 16.19 12.77 14.86 13.90 16.05 13.48 13.57 -
Surat Berharga Selain Saham (S) -27.58 -19.24 -30.98 -17.86 -16.49 1.68 -30.20 42.38 70.89 112.91 115.83 137.28 -

Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Uang Beredar 14.96 14.41 15.02 14.01 14.72 14.42 11.81 14.69 13.29 14.57 13.03 12.67 -
Aktiva Luar Negeri Bersih 5.84 2.80 -0.47 2.29 -2.41 -3.66 -9.91 -9.25 -7.98 -0.36 -3.49 -0.14 -
Aktiva Dalam Negeri Bersih 19.19 20.05 22.66 19.47 23.12 23.10 21.26 25.26 22.80 21.34 20.55 18.38 -
Tagihan Bersih kepada Pemerintah Pusat 11.01 17.43 22.02 23.49 40.38 34.48 16.37 35.13 25.40 14.57 18.00 12.80 -
Tagihan Kepada Sektor Lainnya 22.39 21.82 21.64 20.61 20.10 20.13 20.03 21.42 22.01 22.79 21.50 22.05 -

HARGA

Inflasi bulanan (%, mtm) 0.54 1.03 0.75 0.63 -0.10 -0.03 1.03 3.29 1.12 -0.35 0.09 0.12 0.55
Inflasi tahunan (%, yoy) 4.30 4.57 5.31 5.90 5.57 5.47 5.90 8.61 8.79 8.40 8.32 8.37 8.38

SEKTOR EKSTERNAL
Rp/USD (akhir periode, nilai tengah) 9,670 9,698 9,664 9,718 9,723 9,795 9,925 10,278 10,920 11,580 11,273 11,963 12,170
Ekspor Barang Non migas (f.o.b, juta USD) 4) 12,313 12,386 11,897 12,727 12,480 13,308 11,970 12,874 10,487 12,248 13,143 13,136 -
Impor Barang Non migas (c & f, juta USD) 4) 11,715 11,660 11,463 10,971 12,813 13,234 12,029 13,327 9,423 11,811 12,320 11,179 -

2012 2013
INDIKATOR KUARTALAN
Tw.IV Tw.I Tw.II Tw.III Tw.IV*
Pertumbuhan PDB (%, yoy) 6.1 5.8 5.6 5.5
Konsumsi 4.7 4.7 5.9 6.1
Investasi (PMTB) 5.5 4.5 4.5 4.6
Perubahan Stok 16.5 -0.6 -18.7
Ekspor 3.6 4.8 5.3 6.0
Impor 0.0 0.5 3.8 5.3
1) minggu terakhir
2) rata-rata tertimbang
3) penutupan pada akhir periode
4) closed file
Sumber : Bank Indonesia, kecuali data pasar modal (BAPEPAM), IHK, ekspor/impor dan PDB dari BPS

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