TUGAS UJIAN AKHIR SEMESTER - Semester Gasal 2019/2020

PROGRAM STUDI STRATA-1 TEKNIK SIPIL

DEPT. TEKNIK SIPIL FAK. TEKNIK UNIVERSITAS DIPONEGORO

Mata Ujian : Statistika dan Probabilitas Waktu : 6 Hari

Hari/Tanggal : Selasa, 3 Desember 2019 Sifat Ujian : Buka Buku
Dosen Penguji : Ferry Hermawan, ST, MT, PhD

Ketentuan :

1. Tugas dikumpulkan pada Tanggal 9 Desember 2019, melalui email:

ferryhermawan@lecturer.undip.ac.id Pukul 23:59 WIB
2. Format File MS Words

SOAL-1 Regresi Berganda

Pada suatu studi perpanjangan runway di Bandara A.Yani (Panjang Runway eksisting= 1850
m), dimodelkan suatu persaman regresi dari varibel berat terhadap panjang lintasan runway.
Dengan variable sebagai berikut:
 Berat Pesawat Tanpa Penumpang(kg)= PSWKOS
 Berat Pesawat Dengan Penumpang(kg)= PNP
 Berat Pesawat Dengan Bahan Bakat(kg)=BHNNK
 BeratPesawat Dengan Penumpang+Bahan Bakar(kg)=BAGASI
 ANGIN , SUHU
Satuan berat variabel dalam kilogram, satuan angin dalam knot dan satuan suhu dalam
derajat. Dari hasil pemodelan untuk pesawat take off Boeing 737-200, diperoleh model
seperti output terlampir.

Pertanyaan:
1. Manakah model regresi yang paling baik? Jelaskan
2. Apabila model dinyatakan dalam skala logaritma, bagaimanakah persaman regresinya?
3. Bandingkan dengan panjang runway eksisting, apabila berat pesawat kosong 30,329 ton,
berat penumpang 12,5 ton, berat bahan bakar = 9,936, berat bagasi 0,305 ton. Pada saat
tekanan angin Calm (1 knot) dan suhu udara 24 derajat celcius. Apa komentar saudara.

1
Output Model:

Descriptive Statistics

Mean Std. Deviation N

RUNWAY 3.132963 .0643373 30
PSWKOS 4.468406 .0061281 30
PNP 3.768451 .1028086 30
BHNNK 3.853929 .0253729 30
BAGASI 2.914168 .2114858 30
ANGIN 1.024931 .2333880 30
SUHU 1.466704 .0532396 30

Excluded Variablesf

Collinearity Statistics
Partial Minimum
Model Beta In t Sig. Correlation Tolerance VIF Tolerance
1 PNP .544a 3.197 .004 .524 .916 1.092 .916
BHNNK -.055a -.266 .792 -.051 .845 1.184 .845
BAGASI -.258a -1.369 .182 -.255 .959 1.042 .959
ANGIN -.385a -2.038 .051 -.365 .886 1.128 .886
SUHU -.300a -1.588 .124 -.292 .938 1.066 .938
2 BHNNK -.083b -.463 .647 -.090 .843 1.187 .791
BAGASI -.287b -1.790 .085 -.331 .957 1.045 .876
ANGIN -.260b -1.486 .149 -.280 .828 1.208 .772
SUHU -.155b -.874 .390 -.169 .856 1.168 .817
3 BAGASI -.314c -1.727 .096 -.326 .765 1.307 .674
ANGIN -.264c -1.484 .150 -.285 .827 1.210 .675
SUHU -.150c -.830 .414 -.164 .852 1.174 .726
4 ANGIN -.263d -1.544 .136 -.301 .827 1.210 .592
SUHU -.198d -1.139 .266 -.226 .834 1.200 .647
5 SUHU -.059e -.268 .791 -.056 .520 1.923 .516
a. Predictors in the Model: (Constant), PSWKOS
b. Predictors in the Model: (Constant), PSWKOS, PNP
c. Predictors in the Model: (Constant), PSWKOS, PNP, BHNNK
d. Predictors in the Model: (Constant), PSWKOS, PNP, BHNNK, BAGASI
e. Predictors in the Model: (Constant), PSWKOS, PNP, BHNNK, BAGASI, ANGIN
f. Dependent Variable: RUNWAY

2
 Coefficientsa

Unstandardized Standardized
Coefficients Coefficients 95% Confidence Interval for B Correlations Collinearity Statistics
Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. Lower Bound Upper Bound Zero-order Partial Part Tolerance VIF
1 (Constant) -2.267 8.807 -.257 .799 -20.307 15.773
PSWKOS 1.208 1.971 .115 .613 .545 -2.829 5.246 .115 .115 .115 1.000 1.000
2 (Constant) -10.951 8.107 -1.351 .188 -27.584 5.682
PSWKOS 2.865 1.786 .273 1.604 .120 -.800 6.530 .115 .295 .261 .916 1.092
PNP .340 .106 .544 3.197 .004 .122 .559 .465 .524 .521 .916 1.092
3 (Constant) -8.658 9.603 -.902 .376 -28.398 11.081
PSWKOS 2.532 1.950 .241 1.298 .206 -1.477 6.541 .115 .247 .215 .791 1.264
PNP .343 .108 .548 3.169 .004 .121 .565 .465 .528 .524 .914 1.094
BHNNK -.211 .456 -.083 -.463 .647 -1.150 .727 -.092 -.090 -.076 .843 1.187
4 (Constant) -15.744 10.125 -1.555 .133 -36.596 5.109
PSWKOS 3.847 2.028 .366 1.897 .069 -.330 8.024 .115 .355 .302 .680 1.471
PNP .349 .104 .557 3.343 .003 .134 .564 .465 .556 .532 .913 1.096
BHNNK .169 .492 .067 .343 .735 -.844 1.182 -.092 .068 .055 .674 1.484
BAGASI -9.57E-02 .055 -.314 -1.727 .096 -.210 .018 -.225 -.326 -.275 .765 1.307
5 (Constant) -10.171 10.496 -.969 .342 -31.832 11.491
PSWKOS 2.673 2.116 .255 1.263 .219 -1.694 7.039 .115 .250 .196 .592 1.689
PNP .307 .105 .491 2.926 .007 .091 .524 .465 .513 .454 .853 1.172
BHNNK .144 .479 .057 .301 .766 -.845 1.133 -.092 .061 .047 .673 1.485
BAGASI -9.56E-02 .054 -.314 -1.773 .089 -.207 .016 -.225 -.340 -.275 .765 1.307
ANGIN -7.26E-02 .047 -.263 -1.544 .136 -.170 .024 -.380 -.301 -.239 .827 1.210
6 (Constant) -10.181 10.705 -.951 .351 -32.325 11.964
PSWKOS 2.681 2.158 .255 1.242 .227 -1.783 7.145 .115 .251 .196 .592 1.690
PNP .302 .109 .483 2.774 .011 .077 .527 .465 .501 .439 .826 1.211
BHNNK .169 .497 .067 .339 .737 -.860 1.197 -.092 .071 .054 .650 1.538
BAGASI -9.83E-02 .056 -.323 -1.758 .092 -.214 .017 -.225 -.344 -.278 .739 1.353
ANGIN -6.26E-02 .061 -.227 -1.031 .313 -.188 .063 -.380 -.210 -.163 .516 1.940
SUHU -7.11E-02 .265 -.059 -.268 .791 -.619 .477 -.310 -.056 -.042 .520 1.923
a. Dependent Variable: RUNWAY

3
SOAL-2 Uji Korelasi
Lakukan uji korelasi dengan SPSS dari data berikut dan Jelaskan hasilnya

Turunnya permukaan tanah Banyaknya

Tahun
( cm ) pembuatan sumur artesis
1991 5.4 56
1992 6.5 65
74+ satu angka NIM terakhir,
1993 7.8
jika 0 diganti 9
1994 8.7 78
1995 10.3 85
90- satu angka NIM terakhir, jika
1996 11.5
0 diganti 1
1997 20 99
1998 30.5 103