ENERGI DI MASA DEPAN

Tantangan dan Pilihan Kebijakan

OLEH: SATYA W. YUDHA

ANGGOTA KOMISI VII, DPR RI
 DASAR HUKUM
“APAKAH MASIH AKAN RELEVAN ?”

 Pasal 33, UUD 1945

(1) Perekonomian disusun sebagai usaha

bersama berdasar atas asas kekeluargaan.
(2) Cabang-cabang produksi yang penting bagi
negara dan yang menguasai hajat hidup orang
banyak dikuasai oleh negara.
(3) Bumi dan air dan kekayaan alam yang
terkandung didalamnya dikuasai oleh negara
dan dipergunakan untuk sebesar-besar
kemakmuran rakyat.

 UU No. 17/2007 tentang Rencana

Pembangunan Jangka Panjang 2005-2025
(RPJP);
Pengelolaan sumber daya alam termasuk
sumber energi diperlakukan sebagai masukan
untuk proses produksi sebagai bahan bakar
atau bahan baku yang dapat membawa nilai
tambah bagi negara.
 UU DI SEKTOR ENERGI

 UU No. 22/2001, tentang Minyak dan

Gas Bumi

 UU No. 30/2007 tentang Energi

Umum;

 UU No. 4/2009 tentang Mineral dan

Batubara

 UU No. 27/2003 tentang Geotermal

 UU No. 30/2009 tentang

Ketenagalistrikan

 UU No. 32/2009 tentang Perlindungan

dan Pengelolaan Lingkungan Hidup

 UU No. 10/1997 tentang

Ketenaganukliran
 TANTANGAN

 Indonesia Nett Oil Importer

Asumsi-asumsi
 Pertumbuhan Penduduk 1.36% pertahun

 Peningkatan PDB (terendah 5.5%, tertinggi 7%

pertahun)
 Harga minyak mentah rendah sebesar 60
$/barel dan tinggi 90 $ / barel
 Pertumbuhan penduduk 1.36% pertahun

TRISAKTI- May 2011 @ Satya W Yudha

 FAKTOR PENTING –
PERUBAHAN POLA PEMIKIRAN

 Sumber energi tidak hanya fosil

 Merubah standar pengukuran menjadi Setara
Barel Minyak (SBM) atau Barel Oil Equivalent
(BOE)
 Sistem Pengelolaan Ramah Lingkungan

TRISAKTI- May 2011 @ Satya W Yudha

 PROYEKSI KE DEPAN

 Indonesia Nett Oil Importer

Asumsi-asumsi
 Pertumbuhan Penduduk 1.36% pertahun

 Peningkatan PDB (terendah 5.5%, tertinggi 7%

pertahun)
 Harga minyak mentah rendah sebesar 60
$/barel dan tinggi 90 $ / barel
 Pertumbuhan penduduk 1.36% pertahun

TRISAKTI- May 2011 @ Satya W Yudha

 INDONESIA ENERGY SECURITY
Energy Security Indicators
 Diversification of energy supply sources;
 Net energy import dependency;
 Non-carbon based fuel portfolio;
 Net oil import dependency and Middle East oil import dependency.
(source: Asia Pacific Research Centre)

Challenges in Indonesia:
 Fossil Fuel dependency (Oil and Natural Gas)
 Lack of infrastructure
 Policy & institutional coordination to enhance energy security in domestic level
 In proper of Subsidy allocation

TRISAKTI- May 2011 @ Satya W Yudha

 Oil & Gas Revenue in 2011 State Budget
Calculation
(Rp triliun)
RAPBN
COMPONENT Exercise
2011
I. Total Oil & Gas Revenue 209,9 208,6
a. PPh (Tax) Oil & Gas 54,2 53,9
b. Oil & Gas 145,3 144,3
i. Oil 104,7 104,1
ii. Gas 40,5 40,2
c. Non Tax Income (DMO) 10,5 10,4
Asumption:
Lifting (ribu bph) 970 970
ICP (US$/barel) 80 80
Exchange Rate (Rp/US$) 9.300 9.250
JFCC- Feb 2011 @ Satya W Yudha
 OIL LIFTING PROJECTION V/S ACTUAL

Perkembangan ICP dan Lifting Minyak Bulanan Proyeksi ICP dan Lifting Minyak
1,200 120
Asumsi Realisasi
1,100 ICP 100

1,125

1,050
1,000 80

(MBCD)

(US$/brl)
1,000
0,999

0,970
0,965
0,961
0,960
0,959

0,944
0,900 60

0,931
0,927
0,899
0,800 40

0,700 20

0,600 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan

TRISAKTI- May 2011 @ Satya W Yudha

 INDONESIA ENERGY SECURITY DIRECTION
 Energy subsidy based on State Budget Revenue 2011
 Fuel subsidy: 38.59 MioKL (2010:36.77 MioKL) = 95,914 Trillion (IDR)

 Electricity Subsidy= 41,2 Trillion (IDR)

 Shifting Paradigm
Oil to Gas
Industry follows the Energy Concept
Revenue Based to Economic Growth Based
Promoting Renewable Energy in the energy mix strategy for 2030
 Challenges;
 Control the Subsidy

 FUEL Subsidy v/s Gas and Coal

 Create the pricing scheme which is viable for the Development of

Renewable Energy such as Geothermal, Mikrohydro, nuclear, etc
* Geothermal to be used for electricity
(Law No. 27/2003 and President Declare No. 4/2010 “ceiling price us$ 9.7 cents per
kWh)
* Lesson Learned from Bio Fuel policy

TRISAKTI- May 2011 @ Satya W Yudha

 RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPORT MOVEMENT
IN THE PARLIAMENT

 Nuclear Caucus
 Renewable Energy Caucus

 Climate Change Caucus

TRISAKTI- May 2011 @ Satya W Yudha

 Satya W. Yudha - Komisi VII DPR - RI 7/22/2011

SOME OF
STRATEGIC ISSUES
Upstream Oil & Gas:

 Government should set more competitive contract and

fiscal term and other economic policies to attract the
investor in oil & gas sector such as development of deep
water basin, CBM, Mature field and frontier areas which
involve more complex processes, confronting high risks,
frontier technology and more complex project financing.
 In near term, to improve governance upstream
management capability, to review the competency of the
management of upstream implementing body (BPMIGAS)
more efficient and transparent bureaucracy, standard
accounting system, Cost recovery mechanism v/s Gross
Revenue split

JFCC- Feb 2011 @ Satya W Yudha

 Satya W. Yudha - Komisi VII DPR - RI 7/22/2011

SOME OF
STRATEGIC ISSUES
Downstream Oil & Gas:
 Government should develop plan to allow investor to develop
more capacity petroleum refineries and storages, LNG Receiving
terminal, gas filling station, domestic gas pipeline, and develop
city gas infrastructures.
 To meet domestic demand of energy, government policy
especially on energy export should be redirected. The new policy
is aimed to provide support for national security of energy supply,
to create value added to the domestic economy activities, to
achieve more efficient energy consumption in more
environmentally responsible manner
 The policy should include fiscal and tax incentives policies to
encourage, the use of alternative fuels such as gas, CBM,
biofuels, shale gas
 Rethink – Domestic Gas Price policy

JFCC- Feb 2011 @ Satya W Yudha