Outlook Perekonomian

Indonesia di masa Pandemi

COVID-19

M. Chatib Basri

CReco Research

1
Kasus COVID-19: Indonesia 2

Kasus COVID-19 baru yang dikonfirmasi setiap hari:

Indonesia relatif baik setelah Agustus 2021

Tingkat kematian masih relatif

tinggi

Kematian yang dikonfirmasi per juta relatif

rendah

Sumber: Our World in Data, access Oct 11 2021

 3
Vaksin Berhasil

Pre
vaccination
Post vaccination

Post vaccination
Pre
vaccination

Sumber: Wall Street Journal, Aug 7, 2021

Sumber; Ourworldindata.org, 2021

 4
Pemulihan Ekonomi Global yang Tidak Merata

Sumber: World Bank, 2021

 Proporsi penduduk yang 5

sudah divaksinasi

Sumber: Our World in Data.org, 2021

 Korelasi: total vaksinasi per seratus orang dan 6

proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi

Vaccine
100.00

90.00

80.00

70.00

60.00

50.00

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0
 7

Perekonomian Global

Dampak Evergrande ke
Indonesia
Tiongkok
A. Pertumbuhan Ekonomi
Default akan mendorong kepercayaan
domestik yang lebih rendah →
pertumbuhan yang lebih rendah
B. Eksposur Sektor Perbankan
Default Evergrande Eksposur Evergrande ke Sektor
Perbankan: 0,2-0,3% dari total pinjaman
sektor perbankan
C. Pasar obligasi dan ekuitas
Jika tidak ada intervensi pemerintah:
potensi risk-off dari pasar Asia yang
sedang berkembang
Sumber: OCE, Bank Mandiri
8
Regional Asia, termasuk Indonesia
A. Pertumbuhan Ekonomi
• Pertumbuhan Tiongkok yang lebih rendah → harga komoditas
yang lebih rendah → pertumbuhan yang terbatas pada
pertumbuhan Indonesia
• Sisi positif: Tiongkok akan mempertahankan investasi ke luar
negeri karena permintaan domestik yang lebih rendah
B. Eksposur Sektor Perbankan
• Lini bisnis anak perusahaan secara langsung maupun tidak
langsung kepada bank yang mendapat eksposur dari
Evergrande
C. Pasar obligasi dan ekuitas
• Sentimen risk-off akan memberikan tekanan bagi kenaikan
imbal hasil obligasi, penurunan harga ekuitas dan pelemahan
rupiah
• Saat ini, kepemilikan asing di obligasi Indonesia: 22%-23%
 9

Proyeksi Pembuat Kebijakan untuk Titik Tengah Suku Bunga AS (%)

3.5
3 Proyeksi di
2.5
Des
2
1.5 2020
1
0.5
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 Longer run

3.5
3 Proyeksi di
2.5
Jun
2
1.5 2021
1
0.5
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 Longer run

Proyeksi Desember 2020 Perbedaan dengan Proyeksi Juni 2021

 10
Taper Tantrum 2.0?

❖Pemulihan ekonomi global yang

tidak merata
❖Kepemimpinan China dan AS
❖Pemulihan ekonomi di AS:
❖Normalisasi kebijakan moneter AS
❖Aliran modal keluar
❖Pasar finansial
❖Respon Kebijakan: tingkat suku
bunga, nilai tukar, makroprudensial,
langkah-langkah fiskal
❖Dampaknya mungkin relatif lebih
kecil dibandingkan tahun 2013:
lebih sedikit pemegang asing di
Pasar Obligasi

Sumber: OCE, Bank Mandiri, 2021

 11
Pasar Komoditas

Energy commodity prices Metal prices

Data as of October 1, 2021 Data as of October 1, 2021
300 281 1,400 40,000 36,600 12,000
1,137 9,615
250 CPO (USD/Mt), RHS 1,200 35,000 10,000
Natural gas 1,000
30,000
200 Copper (USD/Ton), RHS 9,041 8,000
(USD/50 MMBTU)* 25,000 Tin (USD/Ton)
800 29,560
150 20,000 6,000
228
600 15,000 19,689 18,180
100 2,851 4,000
400 10,000 Nickel (USD/Ton) 2,223
5,000 2,000
50 79.28 200 Aluminum (USD/Ton), RHS
Crude oil (USD/Bbl)
Coal (USD/Mt) 0 0
0 0

05-Apr
22-Apr

02-Aug
19-Aug

14-Apr

11-Aug
28-Aug
09-May
26-May

01-May
18-May
05-Sep
22-Sep

05-Feb
22-Feb

14-Sep
11-Mar
28-Mar
12-Jun
29-Jun

04-Jun
21-Jun
16-Jul

12-Nov
29-Nov

19-Jan

08-Jul
25-Jul
09-Oct
26-Oct

16-Dec
02-Jan

01-Oct
02-Jan
19-Jan
02-Mar
19-Mar

09-May
26-May

05-Sep
22-Sep

05-Feb
22-Feb
11-Mar
28-Mar

01-May
18-May

14-Sep
16-Dec
16-Jul

08-Jul
25-Jul
12-Jun
29-Jun

09-Oct
26-Oct

04-Jun
21-Jun

01-Oct
05-Apr
22-Apr

02-Aug
19-Aug

11-Aug
28-Aug
12-Nov
29-Nov

14-Apr

Precious
PreciousMetal Price prices
Metal Commodity price changes, Ytd %
Commodity price changes
Data as of October 1, 2021 DataYTD, percent
as of October 1, 2021
2,500 35 Natural gas
121.3
Gold (USD/Troy Oz) 30 Coal 6000
2,000 1,673 1,737 24.2 183.2 CPO
25 -9.0 Platinum
1,500 -15.7 Silver
Silver (USD/Troy Oz), RHS 20
17.1 22.3 -8.0 Gold
15 10.7 Zinc
1,000
78.2 Tin
972 10 7.2 Lead
500869 9.9 Nickel
Platinum (USD/Troy Oz) 5
16.8 Copper
0 0 44.1 Aluminum
Crude oil
02-Jan
19-Jan
02-Mar
19-Mar

09-May
26-May

05-Sep
22-Sep

05-Feb
22-Feb
11-Mar
28-Mar

01-May
18-May

14-Sep
16-Dec
16-Jul

08-Jul
25-Jul
12-Jun
29-Jun

09-Oct
26-Oct

04-Jun
21-Jun

01-Oct
05-Apr
22-Apr

02-Aug
19-Aug

12-Nov
29-Nov

14-Apr

11-Aug
28-Aug

53.1
-50.0 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0

Sumber: CEIC
 12

Perekonomian Indonesia
 COVID-19 dan Dampaknya terhadap 13
Perekonomian Indonesia
Real GDP and Domestic Demand Growth
(Y.O.Y %)
10,00 7.07
8,00

6,00

4,00

2,00

0,00
03/2011
07/2011
11/2011
03/2012
07/2012
11/2012
03/2013
07/2013
11/2013
03/2014
07/2014
11/2014
03/2015
07/2015
11/2015
03/2016
07/2016
11/2016
03/2017
07/2017
11/2017
03/2018
07/2018
11/2018
03/2019
07/2019
11/2019
03/2020
07/2020
11/2020
03/2021
-2, 00

-4, 00 -5.32
-6, 00

-8, 00

Domesti c Dem and Rea l GDP

GDP growth by expenditure Consumption Growth

31.78
growth yoy, percent
31.22 20(percentage, yoy quarterly)
16.79
G… 15
Education& Health
10 10.59
Gov't exp 8.06 5 Food n Bev. 3.89
Investment 7.54 Equipment 2.08
5.93 0 1.67
Apparel
-5 1.20
-10 Transport & Comm
Export HH Cons. -15
Source: BPS, CEIC (2020)
Import Restaurant & Hotel
-20
-25

Sumber: BPS, CEIC

 14

Pertumbuhan PDB Sektoral

30 25.1
21.6
20
10.8 12.0
9.1 9.4 8.3 9.9 9.5
10 7.1 6.6 6.9
5.2 4.4 5.8 4.4 5.7
2.2 0.4 1.1 2.3 2.8 1.2
0
-2.7 -3.2
-10 -5.3 -6.2 -5.5 -5.4
-7.6
-12.1 -12.6
-20
-22.0
-30
-30.8
-40

Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21

Sumber: BPS, CEIC

 15

Purchasing Manager Index: Manufacturing BI Prompt Manufacturing Index

(>50=expansion; <50=Contraction)
60 54 5454
Manufacturing PMI 55 50 52 51
60
53.5 50
55 50.8 52.2 52 45 50 4848 50
40 47 47
50
35
45 30
40 25
40.1
35 Production Order Speed of Inventory Labour PMI - BI
30 Volume Volume Supplier
27.5 Delivery
25
Time

Jul-21
Jul-19

Jul-20
Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-21
Apr-19
May-19

Nov-19

Feb-20
Apr-20
May-20

Nov-20
Jan-19

Aug-19

Dec-19

Dec-20

Apr-21
May-21
Feb-19
Mar-19

Sep-19

Jan-20
Mar-20

Aug-20
Sep-20

Jan-21

Aug-21
Feb-21
Mar-21

Sep-21
Oct-19

Oct-20
Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 (expectation)

30 Index of Business Sentiment

Cement consumption
(Moving Average - 4 Periods) 19.0
20 (seasonally-adjusted yoy, percent)
BI Expected Business Activity
10 18.9 40 30.0
30
0 14.2
20
-10 10
-
-20 (10) 2.9
(20)
-30 BI Current Business Activity (30)
(40) -38.3
-40

Dec-19

Dec-20
Sep-19
Jan-19
Feb-19

Apr-19

Oct-19
Nov-19

Jan-20
Feb-20

Apr-20

Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20

Jan-21
Feb-21

Apr-21
May-19
Jun-19

May-20
Jun-20

May-21
Jun-21
Mar-19

Aug-19

Aug-20
Jul-19

Mar-20

Jul-20

Mar-21

Jul-21
Sumber: BI, BPS, Tradingeconomics, CEIC (2021)
 16

Consumer Confidence Index Retail Sales Index

(Index, Weighted average of 18 cities) 250.0 (index 2010 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
160 230.0
215.5
140 Consumer Expectation Index
210.0
120
95.3
100 190.0
Consumer Confidence Index 77.3 194.5
80 Retail Sales Index
60 170.0
Current Economic Condition Index 59.4
40
150.0
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19

Jul-20

May-21
Jul-21
Apr-19

Jun-20
Nov-19

Apr-20
May-20

Nov-20

Apr-21
Jun-21
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19

Aug-19
Sep-19

Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20

Aug-20
Sep-20

Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21

Aug-21
Oct-19

Oct-20

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-21
Aug-21
Apr-19
May-19

Nov-19

Apr-20
May-20

Sep-20
Nov-20

Apr-21
May-21
Jan-19

Aug-19

Aug-20
Feb-19
Mar-19

Sep-19

Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20

Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Oct-19

Oct-20
Vehicle Sales
(Yoy, percet) Retail Sales

96,5

114,4
1,443.6 110

90,4
1,500.0

86,4

84,1
80,2
78,1

78,1
1,300.0 90

73,7
1,065.7
1,100.0

64,0
62,0

58,5
900.0 70

51,0

50,1

50,0

45,6
700.0

36,1
500.0 Motor vehicle sales 50

30,6
300.0 123.5
Motorcycle sales 48.2
100.0 30
-100.0 FnB RSI Fuels Car parts HH Stationery Recreation Other Apparel
Appliance
Jul-20

Jul-21
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20

Nov-20

Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21

Aug-21
Jan-20
Feb-20

Mar-21
Aug-20
Sep-20

Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Oct-20

Q2-2020 Q3-2020 Q4-2020 Q1-2021 Q2-2021

Sumber : BI, BPS, CEIC (2021)

Pertumbuhan PDRB berdasarkan Provinsi
Economic Growth by Region H1-2021, YoY
20

15.2
15 13.7

10.8
10 8.7

5.1 5.1
5 3.9 4.1 4.1
3.2 3.7
2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.1
1.8 1.8
1.1 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.6
0.3 0.7
0
-0.4

-5 -3.7

Sumber : Badan Pusat Statistik

 18
Kebijakan pembatasan baru-baru ini dan
dampaknya terhadap mobilitas dan ekonomi

Dampak kepada Mobilitas Dampak kepada Pengeluaran

Sumber : Big Data, Bank Mandiri, 2021

 Leading indicators
Indonesian Economic Indicators

Indicators 2019 2020 2021

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
GDP, growth % YoY 5.0 3.0 -5.3 -3.5 -2.2 -0.7 7.1
BI Business Activity, >0 expansion 7.8 -5.6 -35.8 -6.0 -3.9 4.5 19.0 7.6
BI Expected Business Activity, >0
9.1 10.7 2.1 0.5 2.1 7.7 18.9 9.8 7.5
expansion
BI Prompt Manufacturing Index (PMI), >50
51.5 45.6 28.5 44.9 47.3 50.0 51.4 48.7 51.2
expansion
Manufacturing PMI, >50 expansion 47.7 48.2 49.5 49.3 51.9 45.3 27.5 28.6 39.1 46.9 50.8 47.2 47.8 50.6 51.3 52.2 50.9 53.2 54.6 55.3 53.5 40.1 43.7 52.2
Cement consumption, growth % YoY 2.0 9.5 7.2 -7.4 -0.1 -6.8 -6.3 -38.3 30.0 -16.1 -7.3 -8.3 -15.0 -13.9 -12.3 -5.9 -5.0 10.7 8.3 14.9 14.2 2.9 2.9 3.9
Consumer confidence index, >100
118.4 124.2 126.4 121.7 117.7 113.8 84.8 77.8 83.8 86.2 86.9 83.4 79.0 92.0 96.5 84.9 85.8 93.4 101.5 104.4 107.4 80.2 77.3 95.5
optimist
Consumer expectation index, >100
132.0 139.1 139.6 133.7 129.8 124.3 106.8 104.9 121.8 121.7 118.2 112.6 106.6 123.9 124.3 106.7 106.5 114.1 122.6 122.1 124.4 93.2 95.3 118.2
optimist
Consumer current condition index, >100
104.8 109.3 113.1 109.6 105.5 103.3 62.8 50.7 45.8 50.7 55.6 54.1 51.5 60.1 68.6 63.0 65.1 72.6 80.3 86.8 90.3 67.1 59.4 72.7
optimist
Retail sales index, growth % YoY 3.6 1.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.8 -4.5 -16.9 -20.6 -17.1 -12.3 -9.2 -8.7 -14.9 -16.3 -19.2 -16.4 -18.1 -14.6 15.6 14.7 2.5 -2.9 -2.1 -1.8
Vehicle sales, growth % YoY -9.4 -9.4 -0.2 -2.1 -2.6 -15.0 -90.6 -95.8 -78.8 -71.7 -58.8 -47.9 -49.0 -41.0 -34.8 -34.2 -38.2 10.6 902.9 1443.6 476.1 163.6 123.5 73.2
Motorcycle sales, growth % YoY -2.0 -8.3 -6.8 -18.7 3.1 -3.2 -79.3 -96.1 -56.4 -44.5 -46.9 -33.1 -46.8 -56.7 -45.1 -14.7 -31.1 -7.2 282.0 1065.7 155.1 28.9 48.2 22.0
Hotel occupancy rate: Jakarta, % 62.7 64.2 61.6 51.4 54.3 36.9 19.8 24.3 26.5 41.0 36.2 39.0 44.3 45.6 45.4 41.1 41.5 45.1 46.6 45.2 51.9 31.7 30.8
Hotel occupancy rate: Bali, % 63.3 59.5 62.6 59.3 46.0 25.4 3.2 2.1 2.1 2.6 3.7 5.3 9.5 9.3 19.0 11.2 9.0 10.2 10.1 10.4 16.7 5.2 4.8
Visitor arrivals, growth % YoY 4.2 10.7 -2.0 7.4 -29.8 -63.7 -87.6 -86.9 -89.1 -89.2 -89.3 -89.1 -88.3 -88.7 -88.1 -89.4 -86.7 -73.1 -20.9 -5.7 -12.3 -13.0 -21.2
Google Mobility: Retail & Recreation -1.3 -13.5 -38.8 -37.8 -24.7 -17.7 -14.6 -17.3 -18.0 -16.3 -14.2 -24.3 -22.2 -16.5 -14.2 -2.2 -4.1 -20.0 -12.4 -1.9 5.2
Google Mobility: Grocery & Pharmacy -0.8 -3.5 -21.1 -12.5 -6.6 -2.6 -0.2 -2.3 0.1 -0.5 4.2 -8.6 -5.1 2.4 8.4 23.9 19.8 12.8 15.5 20.5 26.1
Legend
Google Mobility: Parks -3.7 -15.8 -36.8 -35.1 -22.7 -16.0 -5.6 -10.4 -7.6 -12.7 -6.5 -20.6 -25.0 -17.3 -16.9 3.7 -0.5 -20.0 -15.0 -7.9 0.6
Google Mobility: Transit Stations 0.1 -19.8 -56.8 -55.7 -43.2 -35.3 -31.9 -36.0 -32.2 -29.3 -25.6 -37.4 -35.9 -30.2 -26.7 -24.3 -23.5 -45.3 -37.4 -27.5 -19.4
Google Mobility: Workplaces 2.4 -10.1 -33.0 -34.4 -21.4 -20.0 -19.9 -18.9 -23.0 -21.0 -24.7 -27.3 -28.3 -24.7 -23.3 -28.6 -19.9 -28.9 -22.8 -15.9 -11.8
Google Mobility: Residentials 0.7 6.7 16.7 17.0 12.5 11.4 10.3 11.8 9.8 7.3 9.9 10.8 7.1 5.6 6.7 6.1 7.2 13.0 9.7 6.3 4.8

Best

Worst
 Leading indicators
Indonesian Economic Indicators
Indicators 2019 2020 2021
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Inflation, % YoY 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.2 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6
Inflation: Core, % YoY 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3
Farmer's Terms of Trade, >100 expansion 102.0 102.4 103.4 104.2 103.4 102.1 100.3 99.5 99.6 100.1 100.7 101.7 102.3 102.9 103.3 103.3 103.1 103.3 102.9 103.4 103.6 103.5 104.7 105.7
Farmer's real wage, Jan 2020 = 100 99.9 100.0 99.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.1 100.1 100.4 100.6 100.7 100.7 100.6 100.3 100.5 100.7 100.8 101.0 100.8 101.1 101.1 101.2 101.3
Construction's real wage, Jan 2020 = 100 100.4 100.3 100.0 100.0 99.9 99.8 99.8 99.7 99.6 99.8 99.9 100.9 100.9 100.6 100.2 100.0 100.0 99.9 99.8 99.5 99.8 99.8 99.9 99.8
Barbershop's real wage, Jan 2020 = 100 100.5 100.4 100.1 100.0 99.8 99.8 99.9 99.8 99.7 99.7 99.8 100.0 99.9 99.9 99.5 99.4 99.7 99.7 99.9 100.0 100.1 100.1 100.1 100.2
Housekeeper's real wage, Jan 2020 = 100 100.5 100.6 100.4 100.0 99.8 99.7 99.7 99.6 99.4 99.5 99.6 99.6 99.6 99.3 98.9 98.8 99.0 99.1 99.1 99.0 99.2 99.2 99.3 99.4
Import, growth % YoY -16.5 -9.2 -5.6 -4.9 -7.4 -2.9 -18.6 -42.2 -6.4 -32.6 -24.2 -18.9 -26.9 -17.4 -0.5 -6.6 14.9 25.7 29.3 68.7 60.0 45.9 55.3 40.3
Import of raw material, growth % YoY -18.9 -13.2 -7.3 -7.1 -1.7 2.0 -19.1 -43.1 -13.3 -34.5 -24.9 -19.0 -27.4 -20.0 -2.0 -6.4 11.3 25.5 32.3 79.1 72.0 54.6 59.6 45.5
Import of capital goods, growth % YoY -11.3 -3.6 -8.4 -5.3 -16.4 -18.1 -17.1 -40.0 2.6 -29.3 -27.5 -17.7 -24.2 -2.8 3.2 -11.6 17.7 33.7 11.8 35.3 43.4 5.4 34.6 10.1
Import of consumption, growth % YoY -4.4 16.3 12.6 17.8 -16.0 8.5 -16.8 -39.8 36.7 -24.1 -12.5 -20.4 -27.8 -22.0 3.9 -0.3 46.0 16.1 34.1 50.4 16.7 46.0 58.3 59.7
Export, growth % YoY -6.5 -6.1 1.0 -2.8 9.8 -2.9 -7.0 -29.1 2.1 -10.2 -8.5 -0.9 -3.5 9.4 14.6 12.2 8.6 30.8 52.1 62.0 54.4 41.6 64.1 47.6
Export of Manufacturing, growth % YoY -2.4 -1.6 6.7 3.2 20.6 7.4 -1.6 -25.8 -2.4 -1.9 -4.5 6.5 4.2 14.3 18.9 13.9 7.0 33.4 52.6 54.0 48.9 20.1 52.7 44.6
Export of Mining, growth % YoY -3.4 -19.0 -1.8 -19.2 0.9 -16.0 -29.5 -39.1 -18.6 -30.1 -25.9 -36.0 -32.7 -1.9 4.5 16.9 7.5 11.9 47.0 98.0 93.6 102.8 166.7 217.6
Export of Agriculture, growth % YoY 7.3 4.6 24.7 4.5 28.6 17.0 12.5 -25.6 36.2 11.3 1.3 16.5 24.0 33.3 17.4 14.8 2.9 25.6 19.4 1.4 17.4 -17.4 0.3 -0.2
Credit, growth % YoY 6.6 7.0 5.9 5.7 5.5 7.2 5.1 2.5 1.0 1.0 0.6 -0.4 -0.9 -1.7 -2.7 -2.1 -2.3 -3.7 -2.4 -1.4 0.4 0.3 1.0
Credit Working Capital, growth % YoY 4.1 4.0 2.2 3.0 2.6 5.1 3.4 0.2 -2.0 -1.7 -1.7 -3.1 -2.7 -3.8 -4.9 -3.5 -3.4 -4.9 -3.8 -2.0 0.1 0.2 1.0
Credit Investment, growth % YoY 11.4 13.7 12.8 10.1 10.0 13.0 9.1 6.7 5.2 5.2 4.0 3.4 1.4 0.2 -1.0 -0.9 -1.6 -4.4 -2.9 -3.2 -0.8 -1.7 -1.0
Credit Consumption, growth % YoY 6.6 6.2 5.9 6.2 6.1 5.4 4.1 2.2 2.4 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.1 -0.2 -0.7 -1.0 -1.2 -1.0 0.3 1.3 1.9 2.3 2.7

Legend
Best

Worst
 21

Sektor Perbankan
 22

Policy Rate Banking sector indicators

10
(percent) (Monthly, percent)
8 120 Loan to deposit ratio Non performing loans (RHS) 4.0
100 3.5
6
Indonesia 4.35
3.0
China (LPR) 80 2.5
4 Return on assets (RHS)
3.5 60 2.0
2 0.06 40 1.5
USA 1.0
0 Europe 0.0 20 0.5
-0.1 0 Capital adeqacy ratio 0.0
-2
Japan

May-21
Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
May-19

Nov-19

May-20

Nov-20
Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20

Mar-21
Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21
Jul-11

Jul-18
Jun-14

Jun-21
May-10

Sep-12
Apr-13

Mar-16

May-17

Sep-19
Apr-20
Dec-10

Feb-12

Nov-13

Aug-15

Dec-17

Feb-19

Nov-20
Jan-15

Oct-16

Deposit Growth Credit Growth

(yoy growth, percent) 20 (yoy growth, percent)
25 Demand Deposit total credit
Third Party Funds
Investment
17.8 10
15
13.6
Consumption 0.3
10.5
Time Deposit 2.3
Saving Deposit 0 0.2
-1.7
5
4.0
-10
Working Capital

Jan-20
Feb-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Oct-20

Dec-20
Jan-21

Apr-21
Apr-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Feb-21
May-19

May-20
Mar-19

Jun-19

Jun-20

May-21
Jul-19

Mar-20

Jul-20

Mar-21

Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-19

Aug-20
Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21
Apr-19

Apr-20

Apr-21
May-19
Jun-19

Nov-19

May-20
Jun-20

Nov-20

May-21
Jun-21
Feb-19
Mar-19

Aug-19
Sep-19

Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20

Jan-21
Aug-20
Sep-20

Dec-20

Feb-21
Mar-21
Oct-19

Oct-20

(5)
Sumber: CEIC, Banking Statistics (2021)
*from Aug 2016 Bank Indonesia adopt 7-days repo rate as new benchmark of monetary policy
 0

-40
-30
-20
-10
10
20
30
0

-30
-20
-10
10
20
30
40
50
Jan-19 Jan-19
Feb-19 Feb-19
Mar-19 Mar-19
Apr-19 Apr-19

(yoy, %)
May-19 May-19

Sumber : CEIC (2021)

Jun-19 Jun-19

Agriculture
Jul-19 Jul-19
Aug-19 Aug-19

Housing
Sep-19 Sep-19
(percentage)

HH Consumption
Oct-19 Oct-19
Nov-19 Nov-19
Dec-19 Dec-19
Jan-20 Jan-20
Utilities

Manufacturing
Feb-20 Feb-20
Mar-20 Mar-20
Loan Growth by Sector

Growth of Household Loans

Apr-20 Apr-20

Shophouse
May-20 May-20
Jun-20 Jun-20
Jul-20 Jul-20
Aug-20 Aug-20
Mining

Apartment
Sep-20 Sep-20
Oct-20 Oct-20

Vehicles
Nov-20 Nov-20
Dec-20 Dec-20
Jan-21 Jan-21
Feb-21 Feb-21
Mar-21 Mar-21
Apr-21 Apr-21
May-21 May-21
Jun-21 Jun-21
Construction

Jul-21 Jul-21
6.8

-23.8
-7.9
2.6
5.3

-5
5

0
10
15
0

-20
-10
10
20
30
40
50

Jan-19 Jan-19
Feb-19 Feb-19
Mar-19 Mar-19
Apr-19 Apr-19
(yoy, %)

May-19 May-19
Jun-19 Jun-19
Jul-19 Jul-19
Aug-19 Aug-19
Sep-19
(percentage)

Sep-19
Oct-19 Oct-19
Nov-19 Nov-19
Dec-19 Dec-19
Jan-20
Jan-20
Housing

Feb-20
Feb-20 Mar-20
Loan Growth by Sector

Shophouse

Mar-20 Apr-20
Apr-20 May-20
May-20 Jun-20
Jun-20 Jul-20
Flat & Appartment

Jul-20 Aug-20
Aug-20 Sep-20
Trade & Hotel

Sep-20 Oct-20
Oct-20 Nov-20
Growth Contribution of Household Loans

Nov-20 Dec-20
Dec-20 Jan-21
Jan-21 Feb-21
Feb-21 Mar-21
Apr-21
Mar-21
Finance

May-21
Apr-21 Jun-21
May-21 Jul-21
Jun-21
23

Jul-21
Transport & Communication

-8.9
1.9
11.4
 24

Loan to Deposit Ratio Capital Adequacy Ratio Non Performing Loan

90 40 4 3.72
85.4
30.0 3.35 3.29 3.35
80.2 30 26.8 24.6
78.9 22.0
80 75.1 3
20
70 10 2
Book 2 Book 3 Book 4 Overall Book 2 Book 3 Book 4 Overall Book 2 Book 3 Book 4 Overall
Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21
Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21
May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21

Net Interest Margin Return on Asset Operating Expense /

6 3 Operating Revenue
5.2 2.3
4.6 4.6 1.9 110
5 2 1.4 93.4 89.4
3.5 0.7 90 80.0 84.3
4 1
3 0 70
Book 2 Book 3 Book 4 Overall Book 2 Book 3 Book 4 Overall Book 2 Book 3 Book 4 Overall
Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21
Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21
May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21
Sumber : CEIC (2021)
 25

Beberapa isu
 Relaksasi Kredit Perbankan

 Kebijakan moneter dan suku bunga

 Exit Strategy

 Non-Performing Loans
 26

Peran stimulus ekonomi:

kebijakan fiskal
 Fiskal Jangka Menengah (% terhadap PDB):

APBN 2020 APBN Baseline Baseline Baseline

2021 APBN 2022 APBN 2023 APBN 2024

Total 10.37 9.88 9.98 10.02 9.83

Penerimaan
Rasio Pajak 8.57 8.18 8.17 8.20 8.23
Total Belanja 16.71 15.58 14.71 12.99 12.75
Keseimbangan (4.27) (3.59) (2.62) (0.86) (0.80)
Primer
Defisit (6.34) (5.70) (4.73) (2.97) (2.92)
Pembiayaan 1.6 1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Investasi
Rasio Utang 37.6 41.18 45.09 44.56 43.98
PDB (nominal) 16390.5 17665.8 17988.1 19525.6 21194.6
Sumber: : Kemenkeu (2021)

2
7
 Mengapa kita
28
membutuhkan
ekspansi fiskal?  Sektor eksternal: berkat harga
komoditas dan energi yang tinggi
 Tantangan nyata akan terjadi pada
Figure 11: Impulse and Cumulative Impulse Response Function Result for a Shock in tahun 2021 dan 2022: akankah
Private Consumption and Investment investasi swasta masuk pada tahun
2021 dan 2022?
 Skala ekonomi: dengan protokol
20 0,3

kesehatan yang berlaku, sulit

18

mencapai Break Even Point (Hotel

16 0,2

46%; Restoran 68%; FMCG Ritel 32%,

14

PC to GFCF IR F
non FMCG 42%; Industri semen 54%)
12 0,2
PC to GFCF cumulative IRF
10

8 0,1
GFCF to PC (RHS) IRF
 Vaksin? Akan memakan waktu untuk
6
GFCF to PC (RHS) cumulative IRF
208 juta. Membutuhkan lebih dari juta
4 0,1 suntikan per hari.
2
 Konsumsi vs investasi; konsumsi akan
0 0,0
0 1 2 3 4 5 mendorong investasi
 Stimulus fiskal sebagai langkah awal
GFCF = gross fixed capital formation, IRF = impulse response function, PC = private consumption, RHS = right-hand
side.  Fiskal: penyaluran bantuan tunai (BLT)
Source: Authors’ calculation. ke masyarakat menengah ke bawah:
Bidang Kesehatan; jaminan kredit,
subsidi suku bunga, insentif pajak
Impulse Response Function
Sumber: Basri and Fitrania (forthcoming)  Kendala: ketidakpastian, kapasitas
waktu (Furman, 2020)
 Keberlanjutan fiskal: beberapa 29
indikator VI.2.3. Asesmen terhadap Kesinambungan Fiskal

Debt Service Ratio Bunga terhadap Keseimbangan primer, Hutang, Defisit

(%)
Grafik 99 Debt Service Ratio (persen) pendapatan (%)Ratio (persen)
Grafik 100 Interest to Income terhadap rasio PDB (%)

Grafik 101 Keseimbangan Primer, Defisit, dan Rasio Utang terhadap PDB
50.00 35
70.0 2.0

45.00 60.0
1.0
30 -
40.00 50.0
-1.0
40.0 -2.0
35.00 25 -3.0
30.0
-4.0
30.00 20.0
20 10.0
-5.0
-6.0
25.00 -
Primary balance Debt ratio Defisit
-7.0
15

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044
20.00
Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan, 2021
15.00 10 Utang/PDB (%)
Grafik 97 Debt to GDP Ratio (persen)

10.00 100.00294

5 90.00

5.00 80.00
70.00
60.00
0.00 0 50.00
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020

1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020

40.00
30.00
20.00

Sumber: Kemenkeu (2021) 10.00

0.00

Sumber: Kementerian Keuangan, 2021

 Bagaimana kita membiayai defisit 30
anggaran?
• Meningkatkan Pendapatan Pajak: reformasi administrasi vs menaikkan tarif pajak.
Jika Indonesia memindahkan dari kantor pajak regional menjadi “Kantor Pajak
Menengah” dengan rasio staf terhadap wajib pajak yang tinggi, penerimaan
pajak berpotensi mencapailebih dari dua kali lipat (Basri, Felix, Hanna dan Olken,
2019)
• Basri, Felix, Hanna dan Olken (2019) memperkirakan elastisitas penghasilan kena
pajak sebesar 0,59. Menggabungkan perkiraan ini, peningkatan administrasi pajak
setara dengan menaikkan tarif pada perusahaan yang terkena dampak sebesar 8
poin persentase. Secara bersih, administrasi pajak yang lebih baik dapat
memberikan hasil yang signifikan bagi negara-negara berkembang. (Basri, Felix,
Hanna dan Olken, 2019)
• Meningkatkan kualitas belanja: realokasi anggaran, fokus pada sektor kesehatan,
bantuan sosial, UKM
• Green fiscal stimulus
• Obligasi lokal dan global
• Pembagian beban dengan Bank Indonesia: money financing
• Keberlanjutan fiskal
 31

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