Corporate Finance
Ross, Westerfield, and
Jaffe
Dollar return
Rumus variasn untuk portofolio varian terdiri dari dua sekuritas A dan B
adalah :
Rumus varians untuk dua sekuritas kami, Super dan Lambat, adalah:
return
Individual
Assets
P
Consider a world with many risky assets; we
can still identify the opportunity set of risk-
return combinations of various portfolios.
11-21
The Efficient Set for Many Securities
return
minimum
variance
portfolio
Individual Assets
P
The section of the opportunity set above the
minimum variance portfolio is the efficient
frontier. 11-22
Announcements, Surprises, and Expected
Returns
The return on any security consists of two parts.
First, the expected returns
Second, the unexpected or risky returns
A way to write the return on a stock in the
coming month is:
R R U
where
R is the expected part of the return
U is the unexpected part of the return
11-23
Announcements, Surprises, and Expected
Returns
Any announcement can be broken down into two
parts, the anticipated (or expected) part and the
surprise (or innovation):
Announcement = Expected part + Surprise.
The expected part of any announcement is the
part of the information the market uses to form
the expectation, R, of the return on the stock.
The surprise is the news that influences the
unanticipated return on the stock, U.
11-24
Diversification and Portfolio Risk
Diversification can substantially reduce the
variability of returns without an equivalent
reduction in expected returns.
This reduction in risk arises because worse
than expected returns from one asset are offset
by better than expected returns from another.
However, there is a minimum level of risk that
cannot be diversified away, and that is the
systematic portion.
11-25
Portfolio Risk and Number of Stocks
In a large portfolio the variance terms are
effectively diversified away, but the covariance
terms are not.
Diversifiable Risk;
Nonsystematic Risk;
Firm Specific Risk;
Unique Risk
Portfolio risk
Nondiversifiable risk;
Systematic Risk;
Market Risk
n
11-26
Risk: Systematic and Unsystematic
A systematic risk is any risk that affects a large
number of assets, each to a greater or lesser degree.
An unsystematic risk is a risk that specifically affects
a single asset or small group of assets.
Unsystematic risk can be diversified away.
Examples of systematic risk include uncertainty
about general economic conditions, such as GNP,
interest rates or inflation.
On the other hand, announcements specific to a
single company are examples of unsystematic risk.
11-27
Total Risk
Total risk = systematic risk + unsystematic risk
The standard deviation of returns is a measure
of total risk.
For well-diversified portfolios, unsystematic
risk is very small.
Consequently, the total risk for a diversified
portfolio is essentially equivalent to the
systematic risk.
11-28
Optimal Portfolio with a Risk-Free Asset
return
100%
stocks
rf
100%
bonds
In addition to stocks and bonds, consider a world
that also has risk-free securities like T-bills.
11-29
11.8 Market Equilibrium
return
rf
P
With the capital allocation line identified, all investors choose a
point along the line—some combination of the risk-free asset
and the market portfolio M. In a world with homogeneous
expectations, M is the same for all investors.
11-30
Market Equilibrium
return
100%
stocks
Balanced
fund
rf
100%
bonds
Where the investor chooses along the Capital Market
Line depends on her risk tolerance. The big point is that
all investors have the same CML.
11-31
Risk When Holding the Market Portfolio
Researchers have shown that the best measure
of the risk of a security in a large portfolio is
the beta (b)of the security.
Beta measures the responsiveness of a
security to movements in the market portfolio
(i.e., systematic risk).
Cov( Ri , RM )
bi
( RM )
2
11-32
Estimating b with Regression
Security Returns
Slope = bi
Return on
market %
Ri = a i + biRm + ei
11-33
The Formula for Beta
Cov( Ri , RM ) ( Ri )
bi
( RM )
2
( RM )
11-34
11.9 Relationship between Risk and
Expected Return (CAPM)
Expected Return on the Market:
R M R F Market Risk Premium
• Expected return on an individual security:
R i RF β i ( R M RF )
R i RF β i ( R M RF )
RM
RF
1.0 b
11-37
Relationship Between Risk & Return
13.5%
Expected
return
3%
1.5 b
β i 1 .5 RF 3% R M 10%
R i 3 % 1 .5 (10 % 3 %) 13 .5 % 11-38