(GERAK ACAK)
Banyak fenomena di alam yg bersifat acak dan
N = n1 + n2 m = n1 - n2
m<0
N ganjil m ganjil
m = 2n1 - N
N genap m genap
𝑚𝑙 = 𝐿
L < 0, pemabuk ada di sebelah kiri lampu
pppp...pqqqq...q = pn1qn2
n1 n2
Keseluruhan langkah yg mungkin adalah
𝑛𝑃𝑟 𝑁!
𝑛𝐾𝑟 = =
𝑟! 𝑛! 𝑁 − 𝑛 !
𝑁!
𝑃 𝑛, 𝑁 = 𝑝𝑛 (1 − 𝑝)(𝑁−𝑛)
𝑛! 𝑁 − 𝑛 !
Untuk
(N ~) Distribusi Binomial menuju
P sangat kecil distribusi Poisson
Contoh
N = 10.000 N = 2.000
NxP = 10 NxP = 10
P = 0,001 P = 0,005
Karena
𝑛 𝑛ത
𝑛 =𝑁𝑃 P= atau P =
𝑁 𝑁
𝑛
𝑁! 𝑛ത 𝑛ത (𝑁−𝑛)
𝑃 𝑛, 𝑁 = (1 − )
𝑛! 𝑁 − 𝑛 ! 𝑁 𝑁
𝑁! 𝑛ത 𝑛 𝑛ത (𝑁) 𝑛ത (−𝑛)
𝑃 𝑛, 𝑁 = 𝑛
(1 − ) (1 − )
𝑛! 𝑁 − 𝑛 ! 𝑁 𝑁 𝑁
𝑁! 𝑛ത 𝑛 𝑛ത (𝑁) 𝑛ത (−𝑛)
𝑃 𝑛, 𝑁 = 𝑛
(1 − ) (1 − )
𝑛! 𝑁 − 𝑛 ! 𝑁 𝑁 𝑁
Untuk
N besar P=
𝑛ത
maka 𝑛ത ≪ 𝑁
P sangat kecil 𝑁
𝑛ത (𝑁)
(1 − ) 1
𝑁
𝑛ത = 1 𝑛ത = 0,05
𝑒 −𝑛ത 0,368 0,95
𝑁 N= 10 0,349 0,950
𝑛ത
1−
𝑁 N = 100 0,366 0,951
N = 1000 0,368 0,951
𝑁! 𝑛ത 𝑛 𝑛ത (𝑁) 𝑛ത (−𝑛)
𝑃 𝑛, 𝑁 = 𝑛
(1 − ) (1 − )
𝑛! 𝑁 − 𝑛 ! 𝑁 𝑁 𝑁
𝑁! 𝑛ത 𝑛 −𝑛ത
𝑃 𝑛, 𝑁 = 𝑛
𝑒 .1
𝑛! 𝑁 − 𝑛 ! 𝑁
𝑁! 𝑁 𝑁−1 𝑁−2 … 𝑁−𝑛 !
= = 𝑁 𝑁 − 1 𝑁 − 2 … (𝑁 − 𝑛 − 1)
𝑁−𝑛 ! 𝑁−𝑛 !
Maka...
𝑁! 𝑛ത 𝑛 −𝑛ത
𝑃 𝑛, 𝑁 = 𝑛
𝑒 .1
𝑛! 𝑁 − 𝑛 ! 𝑁
𝑁! −𝑛ത −𝑛ത
𝑃 𝑛, 𝑁 = 𝑛
{𝑁 𝑁 − 1 𝑁 − 2 … } 𝑛 𝑒
𝑛! 𝑁
1
N(N-1)(N-2)...(N-n-1)
𝑁𝑛
1
𝑁𝑛 + 𝑁 (𝑛−1) + 𝑁 (𝑛−2) + ...
𝑁𝑛
𝟏 𝒏 −ഥ𝒏 𝟏 𝒏 −𝒎
𝑷 𝒏 = ഥ 𝒆
𝒏 atau
𝑷𝒏 𝒎 = 𝒎 𝒆
𝒏! 𝒏!
𝟏 𝒏 −𝒎
𝑷𝒏 𝒎 = 𝒎 𝒆 Distribusi Poisson
𝒏!
𝑷𝟎 𝒎 = 𝒆−𝒎 Pn(m)
𝑷𝟏 𝒎 = 𝒎𝒆−𝒎 𝑷𝟎 𝒎
𝟏
𝑷𝟐 𝒎 = 𝒎𝟐 𝒆−𝒎 1 𝑷𝟏 𝒎
𝟐! 𝑒
𝑷𝟐 𝒎
𝟏
𝑷𝟑 𝒎 = 𝒎𝟑 𝒆−𝒎
𝟑!
m