MEMAHAMI DINAMIKA
PASAR KEUANGAN
TIGA TEORI BESAR
MENGENAI PERILAKU INVESTOR
4900
4800
4700
4600
4500
4400
4300
4200
4100
4000
14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
/ 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20
3 5 7 11 13 17 19 21 25 27 3 5 7 11 13 17 19 21 25 27 1 3 7 9 11 15 17 22
2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 3/ 3/ 3/ 3/ 3/ 3/ 3/ 3/ 3/ 3/ 4/ 4/ 4/ 4/ 4/ 4/ 4/ 4/
S&P 500 Five Year Trend? S&P 500 Five Year Trend?
or or
5 yrs of the Coin Toss Game? 5 yrs of the Coin Toss Game?
230
180
180
Level
Level
130
130
80 80
Month Month
Over-reaksi
(b)
(a)
Pasar yang efisien (c)
Under-reaksi
|
kejadian
APAKAH PASAR EFISIEN DALAM BENTUK
KUAT?
Bagan 7. Pola Pergerakan Saham Pada Pasar Efisien Benttk Kuat
Harga
Pola yang sangat
ekstrim?
+ |
Bisik-bisik kejadian
APA INSIDER TRADING, DAN KENAPA
DILARANG
• Ada penelitian menunjukkan bahwa harga saham di negara berkembang tidak
bereaksi terhadap berita yang sepertinya cukup berdampak pada perusahaan,
kenapa?
• Insider bisa menyebabkan market failure (kegagalan pasar)
STATISTIK DESKRIPTIF INSIDER
TRADING
APAKAH ANDA PERCAYA DENGAN
HIPOTESIS EFISIEN PASAR?
Every day, the 30-year old runs 35,000 different trading strategies through software he
designed to find a handful of trading ideas with a high statistical probability of making him
money. "It's like seismic imaging," said the Parisian-born Galam, comparing his investing
approach to the process used to find pockets of oil.
"I want to have a high degree of confidence that when I drill, I'm going to find oil."
So how did a Harvard math Ph.D dropout end up working on Wall Street?
'The Street' was calling: Soon enough, Wall Street recruiters began knocking on Galam's door.
Money, prestige and the chance to work on cutting edge quantitative finance systems all
appealed to him. So he cut his Ph.D program short after one year and settled for a master's
degree instead. At the age of 22, he accepted a job at Blue Mountain Capital, a credit trading
hedge fund in New York.
BEHAVIORAL FINANCE