FINAL PPC

NAMA : RONALDO ROTTIE/0501200

TEKNIK INDUSTRI DELA SALLE
Uji metode Simple Average
Mean Square Error
Data ke- Demand
Ramalan Error
Sqr error
1 215965.00
2 243154.00 215965.00 27189.00
739241721.0000
3 247200.00 229559.50 17640.50
311187240.2500
4 239986.00 235439.67
4546.33
20669116.4689
5 226973.00 236576.25 -9603.25
92222410.5625
6 252244.00 234655.60 17588.40
309351814.5600
7 232874.00 237587.00 -4713.00
22212369.0000
8 240428.00 236913.71
3514.29
12350234.2041
Jumlah
1507234906.0455
Mean Square Error
215319272.2922
Standar Deviation Error
Data ke- Demand
Ramalan Error
Sqr error
1 215965.00
2 243154.00 215965.00 27189.00
739241721.0000
3 247200.00 229559.50 17640.50
311187240.2500
4 239986.00 235439.67
4546.33
20669116.4689
5 226973.00 236576.25 -9603.25
92222410.5625
6 252244.00 234655.60 17588.40
309351814.5600
7 232874.00 237587.00 -4713.00
22212369.0000
8 240428.00 236913.71
3514.29
12350234.2041
Jumlah
1507234906.0455
Standar Deviation Error Kuadrat
251205817.6743
Standar Deviation Error
15849.4737
Mean Absolute Percentage Error
Data ke- Demand
Ramalan Error
PE
1 215965.00
2 243154.00 215965.00 27189.00
3 247200.00 229559.50 17640.50
4 239986.00 235439.67
4546.33
5 226973.00 236576.25 -9603.25
6 252244.00 234655.60 17588.40
7 232874.00 237587.00 -4713.00

APE
0.1118
0.0714
0.0189
-0.0423
0.0697
-0.0202

0.1118
0.0714
0.0189
0.0423
0.0697
0.0202

240428.00 236913.71
3514.29
Jumlah
Mean Absolute Percentage Error

0.0146

Mean Forecast Error

Data ke- Demand
Ramalan Error
1 215965.00
2 243154.00 215965.00 27189.00
3 247200.00 229559.50 17640.50
4 239986.00 235439.67
4546.33
5 226973.00 236576.25 -9603.25
6 252244.00 234655.60 17588.40
7 232874.00 237587.00 -4713.00
8 240428.00 236913.71
3514.29
Jumlah
56162.27
Mean Forecast Error
8023.181
Mean Average Deviation
Data ke- Demand
Ramalan Error
[error]
1 215965.00
2 243154.00 215965.00 27189.00
3 247200.00 229559.50 17640.50
4 239986.00 235439.67
4546.33
5 226973.00 236576.25 -9603.25
6 252244.00 234655.60 17588.40
7 232874.00 237587.00 -4713.00
8 240428.00 236913.71
3514.29
Jumlah
Mean Average Deviation

27189.0000
17640.5000
4546.3300
9603.2500
17588.4000
4713.0000
3514.2900
84794.7700
12113.5386

Cumulative Forecast Error

Data ke- Demand
Ramalan Error
1 215965.00
2 243154.00 215965.00 27189.00
3 247200.00 229559.50 17640.50
4 239986.00 235439.67
4546.33
5 226973.00 236576.25 -9603.25
6 252244.00 234655.60 17588.40
7 232874.00 237587.00 -4713.00
8 240428.00 236913.71
3514.29
Cumulative Forecast Error
56162.27

Uji metode Single Exponential Smoothing

0.0146
0.3490
0.049859494

Mean Square Error

Ramalan Error

Data ke- Demand

Sqr error
1 215965.00
2 243154.00 215965.00 27189.00
739241721.0000
3 247200.00 229559.50 17640.50
311187240.2500
4 239986.00 238379.75
1606.25
2580039.0625
5 226973.00 239182.88 -12209.88
149081169.6144
6 252244.00 233077.94 19166.06
367337855.9236
7 232874.00 242660.97 -9786.97
95784781.7809
8 240428.00 237767.48
2660.52
7078366.6704
Jumlah
1672291174.3018
Mean Square Error
238898739.1860
Standar Deviation Error
Data ke- Demand
Ramalan Error
Sqr error
1 215965.00
2 243154.00 215965.00 27189.00
739241721.0000
3 247200.00 229559.50 17640.50
311187240.2500
4 239986.00 238379.75
1606.25
2580039.0625
5 226973.00 239182.88 -12209.88
149081169.6144
6 252244.00 233077.94 19166.06
367337855.9236
7 232874.00 242660.97 -9786.97
95784781.7809
8 240428.00 237767.48
2660.52
7078366.6704
Jumlah
1672291174.3018
Standar Deviation Error Kuadrat
278715195.7170
Standar Deviation Error
16694.7655

Data ke1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Mean Absolute Percentage Error

Demand
Ramalan Error
PE
215965.00
243154.00 215965.00 27189.00
247200.00 229559.50 17640.50
239986.00 238379.75
1606.25
226973.00 239182.88 -12209.88
252244.00 233077.94 19166.06
232874.00 242660.97 -9786.97
240428.00 237767.48
2660.52
Jumlah
Mean Absolute Percentage Error

Mean Forecast Error

Data ke- Demand
Ramalan Error
1 215965.00

APE
0.1118
0.0714
0.0067
-0.0538
0.0760
-0.0420
0.0111

0.1118
0.0714
0.0067
0.0538
0.0760
0.0420
0.0111
0.3727
0.053248809

2
3
4
5
6
7
8

243154.00 215965.00
247200.00 229559.50
239986.00 235439.67
226973.00 236576.25
252244.00 234655.60
232874.00 237587.00
240428.00 236913.71
Jumlah
Mean Forecast Error

27189.00
17640.50
4546.33
-9603.25
17588.40
-4713.00
3514.29
56162.27
8023.181

Mean Average Deviation

Data ke- Demand
Ramalan Error
[error]
1 215965.00
2 243154.00 215965.00 27189.00
3 247200.00 229559.50 17640.50
4 239986.00 238379.75
1606.25
5 226973.00 239182.88 -12209.88
6 252244.00 233077.94 19166.06
7 232874.00 242660.97 -9786.97
8 240428.00 237767.48
2660.52
Jumlah
Mean Average Deviation

27189.0000
17640.5000
1606.2500
12209.8800
19166.0600
9786.9700
2660.5200
90259.1800
12894.1686

Cumulative Forecast Error

Data ke- Demand
Ramalan Error
1 215965.00
2 243154.00 215965.00 27189.00
3 247200.00 229559.50 17640.50
4 239986.00 238379.75
1606.25
5 226973.00 239182.88 -12209.88
6 252244.00 233077.94 19166.06
7 232874.00 242660.97 -9786.97
8 240428.00 237767.48
2660.52
Cumulative Forecast Error
46265.48

MERRY X-MAS & HAPPY NEW YEA

PPC
ROTTIE/05012006
I DELA SALLE
Uji metode Moving Average (3MA)
Mean Square Error
Data ke- Demand Ramalan Error
Sqr error
1 215965.00
2 243154.00
3 247200.00
4 239986.00 235439.67
4546.33
20669116.4689
5 226973.00 243446.67
-16473.67
271381803.2689
6 252244.00 238053.00
14191.00
201384481.0000
7 232874.00 239734.33
-6860.33
47064127.7089
8 240428.00 237363.00
3065.00
9394225.0000
Jumlah
549893753.4467
Mean Square Error
109978750.6893
Standar Deviation Error
Data ke- Demand Ramalan Error
Sqr error
1 215965.00
2 243154.00
3 247200.00
4 239986.00 235439.67
4546.33
20669116.4689
5 226973.00 243446.67
-16473.67
271381803.2689
6 252244.00 238053.00
14191.00
201384481.0000
7 232874.00 239734.33
-6860.33
47064127.7089
8 240428.00 237363.00
3065.00
9394225.0000
Jumlah
549893753.4467
Standar Deviation Error Kuadrat
137473438.3617
Standar Deviation Error
11724.9068
Mean Absolute Percentage Error
Data ke- Demand Ramalan Error
PE
1 215965.00
2 243154.00
3 247200.00
4 239986.00 235439.67
4546.33
5 226973.00 243446.67
-16473.67
6 252244.00 238053.00
14191.00
7 232874.00 239734.33
-6860.33

APE

0.0189
-0.0726
0.0563
-0.0295

0.0189
0.0726
0.0563
0.0295

8 240428.00 237363.00
3065.00
Jumlah
Mean Absolute Percentage Error

0.0127

Mean Forecast Error

Data ke- Demand Ramalan Error
1 215965.00
2 243154.00
3 247200.00
4 239986.00 235439.67
4546.33
5 226973.00 236576.25
-9603.25
6 252244.00 234655.60
17588.40
7 232874.00 237587.00
-4713.00
8 240428.00 236913.71
3514.29
Jumlah
11332.77
Mean Forecast Error
2266.55381

Data ke1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Mean Average Deviation

Demand Ramalan Error
[error]
215965.00
243154.00
247200.00
239986.00 235439.67
4546.33
4546.3300
226973.00 243446.67
-16473.67
16473.6700
252244.00 238053.00
14191.00
14191.0000
232874.00 239734.33
-6860.33
6860.3300
240428.00 237363.00
3065.00
3065.0000
Jumlah
45136.3300
Mean Average Deviation
9027.2660

Cumulative Forecast Error

Data ke- Demand Ramalan Error
1 215965.00
2 243154.00
3 247200.00
4 239986.00 235439.67
4546.33
5 226973.00 243446.67
-16473.67
6 252244.00 238053.00
14191.00
7 232874.00 239734.33
-6860.33
8 240428.00 237363.00
3065.00
Cumulative Forecast Error
-1531.67

Uji metode Double Exponential Smoothing

0.0127
0.1900
0.037998

Mean Square Error

Ramalan Error

Data ke- Demand

1 215965.00
2 243154.00
3 247200.00 243154.00
4 239986.00 253997.25
5 226973.00 247794.75
6 252244.00 231278.94
7 232874.00 251344.50
8 240428.00 237215.77
Jumlah
Mean Square Error

4046.00
-14011.25
-20821.75
20965.06
-18470.50
3212.23

Sqr error

16370116.0000
196315126.5625
433545273.0625
439533740.8036
341159370.2500
10318421.5729
1437242048.2515
239540341.3753

Standar Deviation Error

Data ke- Demand Ramalan Error
Sqr error
1 215965.00
2 243154.00
3 247200.00 243154.00
4046.00
16370116.0000
4 239986.00 253997.25
-14011.25
196315126.5625
5 226973.00 247794.75
-20821.75
433545273.0625
6 252244.00 231278.94
20965.06
439533740.8036
7 232874.00 251344.50
-18470.50
341159370.2500
8 240428.00 237215.77
3212.23
10318421.5729
Jumlah
1437242048.2515
Standar Deviation Error Kuadrat
287448409.6503
Standar Deviation Error
16954.3036

Data ke1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Mean Absolute Percentage Error

Demand Ramalan Error
PE
215965.00
243154.00
247200.00 243154.00
4046.00
239986.00 253997.25
-14011.25
226973.00 247794.75
-20821.75
252244.00 231278.94
20965.06
232874.00 251344.50
-18470.50
240428.00 237215.77
3212.23
Jumlah
Mean Absolute Percentage Error

Mean Forecast Error

Data ke- Demand Ramalan Error
1 215965.00

APE

0.0164
-0.0584
-0.0917
0.0831
-0.0793
0.0134

0.0164
0.0584
0.0917
0.0831
0.0793
0.0134
0.3423
0.057046

2
3
4
5
6
7
8

243154.00
247200.00 229559.50
17640.50
239986.00 235439.67
4546.33
226973.00 236576.25
-9603.25
252244.00 234655.60
17588.40
232874.00 237587.00
-4713.00
240428.00 236913.71
3514.29
Jumlah
28973.27
Mean Forecast Error
4139.038435
Mean Average Deviation
Data ke- Demand Ramalan Error
[error]
1 215965.00
2 243154.00
3 247200.00 243154.00
4046.00
4046.0000
4 239986.00 253997.25
-14011.25
14011.2500
5 226973.00 247794.75
-20821.75
20821.7500
6 252244.00 231278.94
20965.06
20965.0600
7 232874.00 251344.50
-18470.50
18470.5000
8 240428.00 237215.77
3212.23
3212.2300
Jumlah
81526.7900
Mean Average Deviation
13587.7983
Cumulative Forecast Error
Data ke- Demand Ramalan Error
1 215965.00
2 243154.00
3 247200.00 243154.00
4046.00
4 239986.00 253997.25
-14011.25
5 226973.00 247794.75
-20821.75
6 252244.00 231278.94
20965.06
7 232874.00 251344.50
-18470.50
8 240428.00 237215.77
3212.23
Cumulative Forecast Error
-25080.21

APPY NEW YEAR