TUGAS INDIVIDU

MANAJEMEN PRODUKSI DAN OPERASI

Propagasi Modul 4 Peramalan (Forecasting) Permintaan
Disusun oleh :
Nama : NIRMALA KUSUMA WARDANI
NIM :115040101111106
Kelas : H
PROGRAM STUDI AGRIBISNIS
FAKULTAS PERTANIAN
UNIVERSITAS BRAWIJAYA
MALANG
!"#
Tugas Propagas MP! I"#$#u :
1. Dalam melakukan peramalan permintaan, harus mempertimbangkan :
a. Siklus/ Daur Hidup Produk
D #alam s%lus a&au #aur '#up pro#u% &er#apa& empa& &a'apa"( )a&u
per%e"ala"( per&um*u'a"( pema&a"ga" #a" pe"uru"a"+ Dalam me"e"&u%a" %ua"&&as
pro#u% )a"g a%a" #,ual ma%a se*ua' perusa'aa" 'arus memper'a&%a" s%lus "+
Msal")a( #alam perusa'aa" sar apel pa#a &a'ap per%e"ala"( pro#u% )a"g #,ual a&au
#pro#u%s se*a")a% 500 *ua'+ Pa#a &a'ap per&um*u'a"( *erar& pro#u% su#a' s&a*l
ma%a perusa'aa" mempro#u%s 1000 *ua'+ -%a pa#a &a'ap per%e"ala" perusa'aa"
sar apel su#a' mempro#u%s se*a")a% 1000 *ua' ma%a a%a" a#a res%o pro#u%
&erse*u& &#a% &erlalu la%u # pasara" se'"gga perusa'aa" me"galam %eruga" #
a.al usa'a+
b. Sumber Daya Manusia
D#alam peramala" perm"&aa" 'arus me"ge&a'u *agama"a sum*er #a)a
ma"usa #alam mempe%er,a%a"( mela&' #a" mem*er'e"&%a" pe%er,a semua
&erga"&u"g pa#a perm"&aa"+ -%a #epar&eme" SDM 'arus mempe%er,a%a" pe%er,a
&am*a'a"&a"pa a#a")a persapa"( a%*a&")a %ual&as pela&'a" me"uru" #a" %ual&as
pe%er,a me"uru"+ Ma%a #ar &u ,%a perusa'aa" "g" me""g%a&%a" %ua"&&as
pe",uala" ma%a a 'arus mem%r%a" %ua"&&as #a" %ual&as sum*er #a)a ma"usa")a
,uga agar %ual&as pro#u% &e&ap &er,aga #a" perusa'aa" &#a% me"galam %eruga"+
c. Kapasitas Produksi
Kapas&as Pro#u%s 'arus selalu # per&m*a"g%a" u"&u% me"ge&a'u ara' %e#epa"")a
sua&u perusa'aa"+ Agar perusa'aa" #apa& *erpro#u%s se/ara e0se" #a" e0e%&0 ma%a
perusa'aa" 'arus me"erap%a" 0u"gs pere"/a"aa" %apas&as pro#u%s+ Se*elum %&a
mem*a'as pere"/a"aa" %aps&as pro#u%s a#a *a%")a %&a me"ge&a'u
pe"ger&a" #ar %apas&as+ Saa& %apas&as &#a% me"/u%up ma%a %e%ura"ga" )a"g
#a%*a&%a" *sa *erar& &#a% &er,am"")a pe"grma"( %e'la"ga" %o"sume" #a"
%e'la"ga" pa"gsa pasar+ Namu" se*al%")a( ,%a %apas&as *erle*'a" ma%a *a)a
pro#u%s *sa melo",a%+
d. Manaemen !antai Pasokan "Supply #hain Management$
Ma"a,eme" Ra"&a Paso%a" a&au Suppl) 1'a" Ma"ageme"& #apa& ##e0"s%a"
se*aga pe"gelolaa" *er*aga %ega&a" #alam ra"g%a memperole' *a'a" me"&a'(
#la",u&%a" %ega&a" &ra"s0ormas se'"gga me",a# pro#u% #alam proses( %emu#a"
me",a# pro#u% ,a# #a" #&erus%a" #e"ga" pe"grma" %epa#a %o"sume" melalu
ss&m #s&r*us+ Kega&a"2%ega&a" )a"g #la%u%a" me"/a%up pem*ela" se/ara
&ra#so"al #a" *er*aga %ega&a" pe"&"g la"")a )a"g *er'u*u"ga" #e"ga" suppler
#a" #s&r*u&or+ Hu*u"ga" )a"g *a% #e"ga" pemaso% ser&a 'arga *ara"g #a"
%ompo"e" )a"g *ersa"g *erga"&u"g pa#a peramala" )a"g a%ura&+ Hal pe"&"g )a"g
me",a# #asar pem%ra" pa#a %o"sep " a#ala' 0o/us pa#a pe"gura"ga" %esa2saa"
#a" me"gop&mal%a" "la pa#a ra"&a paso%a" )a"g *er%a&a"+
#ontoh Peramalan Permintaan Mie %tom dengan Metode !egresi &inier
'. (elaskan masing)masing ada ' pendekatan dalam melakukan peramalan
permintaan yaitu:
a. Peramalan kuantitati*
Peramala" *er#asar%a" me&o#e %ua"&&a&0 3"&r"s/ 0ore/as&"g 4mempu")a asums *a'.a #a&a
perm"&aa" masa lalu #ar pro#u% a&au&em )a"g #ramal%a" mempu")a pola )a"g
#per%ra%a" mas' la",u& %emasa )a"g a%a" #a&a"g+ Pola perm"&aa" &erse*u& mu"g%"
%ura"g ,elas&erl'a& %are"a 0a%&or ra"#om )a"g me"g'asl%a" 0lu%&uas+ Peramala" me"/a%up
a"alss #a&a masa lalu u"&u% me"emu%a" pola perm"&aa" #a"*er#asar%a" pola " #pro)e%s%a" *esar")a
perm"&aa" pa#a masa )a"g a%a" #a&a"g+
A#apu" ,e"s peramala" %ua"&&0 melpu&:
Me&o#e &re"# leas& s5uare a#ala' sua&u me&o#e peramala" sera"g%aa"
.a%&u )g sesua #e"ga" gars &re" &er'a#ap sera"g%aa" &&%2&&% #a&a
masa lalu( %emu#a" #pro)e%s%a" %e #alam peramala" masa #epa" u"&u%
peramala" ,a"g%a me"e"ga' #a" ,a"g%a pa",a"g+
Tme seres merupa%a" me&o#e )a"g *er'u*u"ga" #e"ga" "la2"la sua&u
$ara*el )a"g #a&ur se/ara pero#esas sepa",a"g pero#e .a%&u #ma"a
pra%raa" perm"&aa" #pro)e%s%a"+ Msal")a m"ggua"( *ula"a"(
%.ar&ala"( #a" &a'u"a"( &erga"&u"g %e"g"a" #ar p'a%2p'a% )a"g
mela%u%a" pra%raa" perm"&aa" "+ Me&o#e " sema&a2ma&a
me"#asar%a" #r pa#a #a&a #a" %ea#aa" masa lampau+ -%a %ea#aa" #
masa )a"g a%a" #a&a"g /u%up s&a*l #alam ar& &#a% *a")a% peru*a'a"
)a"g *erar& #e"ga" %ea#aa" masa lampau( me&o#e " #apa& mem*er%a"
'asl peramala" )a"g /u%up a%ura&+ De"ga" a"alss #ere& .a%&u #apa&
#&u",u%%a" *agama"a perm"&aa" &er'a#ap sua&u pro#u% &er&e"&u
*er$aras &er'a#ap .a%&u+ S0a& #ar peru*a'a" perm"&aa" #ar &a'u"
%e &a'u" #rumus%a" u"&u% meramal%a" pe",uala" pa#a masa )a"g a%a"
#a&a"g+
Me&o#e 6aras Musm merupa%a" me&o#e )a"g mela%u%a" pra%raa"
$olume perm"&aa" %o"sume" # .a%&u2.a%&u )a"g a%a" #a&a"g #apa&
##asar%a" pa#a gelom*a"g musma" )a"g mele%a& pa#a %ul&ur *u#a)a
a&au %e*asaa" #ar mas)ara%a&+ Te&ap #apa& ,uga %are"a 0a%&or s0a& #a"
%ea#aa" alam )a"g mele%a& pa#a %lm a&au /ua/a+ Msal")a pro#u%s
musm sem( gugur #a" musm pe"g'u,a" #a" *a'%a" musm %emarau(
pro#u% apa )a"g se#a"g a&au a%a" #a&a"g musm")a+
Me&o#e /ausal merupa%a" me&o#e )a"g me"gasums%a" 0a%&or )a"g
#per%ra%a" me"u",u%%a" a#a")a 'u*u"ga" se*a* a%*a& #e"ga" sa&u
a&au *e*erapa $ara*el *e*as 3"#epe"#e"4+ Se*aga /o"&o'( ,umla'
pe"#apa&a" *er'u*u"ga" #e"ga" 0a%&or20a%&or seper& ,umla' pe",uala"(
'arga ,ual( #a" &"g%a& promos+
b. Peramalan kualitati*
Me&o#e %ual&a&0 pa#a umum")a #gu"a%a" apa*la #a&a %ua"&0
&e"&a"gperm"&aa" masa lalu &#a% &erse#a a&au a%uras")a &#a%
mema#a+Msal")a peramala" &e"&a"g perm"&aa" pro#u% *aru ,uga
a%a"#%em*a"g%a"( ,elas #a&a masa lalu &#a% &erse#a+ Walaupu" #a&a masalalu
&erse#a( %alau %o"#s l"g%u"ga" masa )a"g a%a" #a&a"g sama se%alsu#a'
*er*e#a #e"ga" %o"#s masa lalu ma%a %e*era#aa" #a&a masa lalu&u &#a% a%a"
me"olo"g peramala" perm"&aa" masa )a"g a%a" #a&a"g+
Te%"% Sur$e) 3 rse& pasar7 mar%e& resear/'4
Te%"% sur$e) " merupa%a" sua&u ala& meramal%a" )a"g /u%up
pe"&"g %'usus")a u"&u% mempre#%s %e,a#a"2%e,a#a" a&au
%e/e"#eru"ga"2%e/e"#eru"ga" #alam ,a"g%a pe"#e% me"#a&a"g "+
Sur$e) *asa")a me"ggu"a%a" ala& "&er$e. a&au #a0&ar per&a")aa" )a"g
a%a" #&u,u%a" para respo"#e" )a"g &erpl' #a" )a"g #&u,u+ Sesua
%elompo% )a"g mema"g #per%ra%a" a%a" me",a# sasara" pasar )a"g
#&u,u ole' perusa'aa"+ Sur$e) " #la%u%a" u"&u% meramal%a" $ara*el
e%o"om )a"g mema"g *er'u*u"ga" *a% la"gsu"g maupu" &#a%
la"gsu"g #e"ga" perm"&aa" %o"sume" a&au pasar )a"g #&u,u+ 6ara*el2
$ara*el e%o"om )a"g #sur$e) " msal")a $ara*el )a"g *er'u*u"ga"
#e"ga" *u#ge& ruma' &a"gga )a"g #%eluar%a" u"&u% meme"u'
%e*u&u'a" ruma' &a"gga+
Te%"% -a,a% Pe"#apa& 3!p"o" Pools4+
Te%"% ,a,a% pe"#apa& ser"g #la%u%a" u"&u% mele"g%ap #a&a #ar
sur$e)+ -a,a% pe"#apa& #ar para pa%ar( para e%se%u&0( #ar mas)ara%a&
umum( a&au #ar %o"sume"+ -a,a% pe"#apa& " le*' *ers0a& pa"#a"ga"
a&au pe"#apa& pr*a# 3su*,e%&04 #ar respo"#e"")a( se*al%")a &e%"%
sur$e) le*' *ers0a& o*,e%&0+
Me&o#e Delp'+
Pa#a me&o#e " se%elompo% pa%ar me"gs %ueso"er( Mo#era&or
me")mpul%a" 'asl")a #a" mem0ormulas%a" me",a# sua&u
%ueso"er *aru )a"g #s %em*al ole' %elompo% &erse*u&( #em%a"
se&erus")a+ Hal " merupa%a" proses pem*ela,ara" 3lear""g pro/ess4 #ar
%elompo% &a"pa a#a")a &e%a"a" a&au "&m#as "#$#u+
A"alog 's&ors 3Hs&or/al A"alog)4
Merupa%a" &e%"% peramala" *er#asar%a" pola #a&a masa lalu #ar
pro#u%2pro#u% )a"g #apa& #sama%a" se/ara A"alog+ Msal")a
peramala" u"&u% pe"gem*a"ga" pasar &ele$s mul& ss&em
me"ggu"a%a" mo#el perm"&aa" &ele$s '&am pu&' a&au &ele$s
*er.ar"a *asa+ A"alog 's&ors /e"#eru"g a%a" me",a# &er*a% u"&u%
pe"gga"&a" pro#u% # pasar #a" apa*la &er#apa& 'u*u"ga" su*s&&us
la"gsu"g #ar pro#u% #alam pasar &u+
Dugaa" ma"a,eme" 3 ma"ageme"& es&ma&e 4 a&au Pa"el 1o"se"sus
Dma"a peramala" sema&a2ma&a *er#asar%a" per&m*a"ga"
ma"a,eme"( umum")a ole' ma"a,eme" se"or+ Me&o#e " a%a" /o/o%
#alam s&uas )a"g sa"ga& se"s&0 &er'a#ap "&us #ar sua&u a&au
se%elompo% %e/l ora"g )a"g %are"a pe"galama"")a mampu mem*er%a"
op" )a"g %r&s #a" rele$a"+ Te%"% a%a" #pergu"a%a" #alam s&uas
#ma"a &#a% a#a s&uas #ma"a &#a% a#a la&er"a&0 la" #ar mo#el
peramala" )a"g #apa& #&erap%a"+ 8agama"apu" me&o#e " mempu")a
*a")a% %e&er*a&asa"( se'"gga perlu #%om*"as%a" #e"ga" me&o#e
peramala" )a"g la"+
+. ,ntuk memperoleh hasil peramalan yang berakulasi tinggi di perlukan
persyaratan. Sebut dan elaskan -
a+ Penentuan tuuan+
La"g%a' per&ama &er#r a&as pe"e"&ua" ma/am es&mas )a"g #"g"%a"+
Se*al%")a &u,ua" &erga"&u"g pa#a %e*u&u'a" "0ormas para ma"a,er+A"als U"&u%
me"ge&a'u apa %e*u&u'a" mere%a #a" me"e"&u%a" :
6ara*el2 $ara*el )a"g a%a" # es&mas
Sapa )a"g me"ggu"a%a" 'asl peramala"
U"&u% &u,ua"2&u,ua" apa 'asl peramala" a%a" # gu"a%a"
9s&mas ,a"g%a pa",a"g a&au ,a"g%a pe"#e% )a"g # "g"%a"
Kapa" es&mas # *u&u'%a"
8aga"2*aga" peramala" )a"g # "g"%a"+
*+ Pengembangan model+
Se&ela' &u,ua" # &e&ap%a" la"g%a' *er%u&")a a#ala'me"gem*a"g%a" sua&u
mo#el( )a"g merupa%a" pe")a,a" se/ara le*' se#er'a"ass&em )a"g #pela,ar+
/+ Penguian model+
Se*elum #&rap%a"( mo#el *asa")a # u, u"&u% me"e"&u%a"&"g%a& a%uras (
$al#&as #a" rela*l&as )a"g # 'arap%a"+ I" ser"g me"/a%up pe"erapa"")a pa#a
#a&a 's&or%( #a" pe")apa" es&mas u"&u% &a'u"2&a'u" se%ara"g#e"ga" ")a&a )a"g
&erse#a+
#+ Penerapan model+
Se&ela' pe"gu,a"( a"alss me"erap%a" mo#el #alam &a'ap " (#a&a 's&or% #
masu%%a" #alam mo#el u"&u% me"g'asl%a" sua&u ramala"+
e+ !e.isi dan e.aluasi+
Ramala"2ramala" )a"g &ela' # *ua& 'arus se"a"&asa # per*a%#a" # &",au
%em*al+ Per'a&%a" mu"g%" perlu # la%u%a" %are"a a#a")a peru*a'a"2peru*a'a"
#alam perusa'aa" a&au l"g%u"ga"")a( seper& &"g%a& 'arga pro#u%( %ara%&ers&%2
%ara%&ers&% pro#u%( pe"geluara"2pe"geluara" pe"g%la"a"(&"g%a& pe"geluara"
pemer"&a'( %e*,a%a" mo"e&er #a" %ema,ua" &e%"olog a&au&e%"% peramala"+
La"g%a' " # perlu%a" u"&u% me",aga %ual&as es&mas2es&mas #.a%&u )a"g a%a"
#a&a"g+
/. (elaskan tentang sistem material handling, sebutkan sumbernya -
Me"uru& Assaur 3:00;4( #alam pro#u%s &er#apa& *erma/am2ma/am proses
)a"g'arus #lalu ole' pro#u% &erse*u& u"&u% sampa selesa #a" sap #%rm %e pasar+
Pergera%a"7perp"#a'a" *a'a" &u #se*u& <material movement + A%a" &e&ap *a'a"2
*a'a" merupa%a" *e"#a ma& )a"g &#a% #apa& *ergera% #e"ga" se"#r")a+
!le' %are"a&u #*u&u'%a" %ega&a" pem"#a'a" *a'a" )a"g #se*u&material
handling. -a# ma&eral 'a"#l"g merupa%a" %ega&a" me"ga"g%a&( me"ga"g%u&( #a"
mele&a%%a" *a'a"2 *a'a"7*ara"g2*ara"g #alam proses # #alam pa*r% sampa
pa#a saa& *ara"g ,a#7pro#u% a%a" #%eluar%a" #alam pa*r%+ 8a)a ma&eral
'a"#l"g &er#r a&as : upa' u"&u% ora"g)a"g mem"#a'%a" *a'a" 3ma&eral 'a"#ller4(
*a)a "$es&as #ar *er*aga ala& pem"#a'a" *a'a" )a"g #gu"a%a" #a" *a)a2
*a)a )a"g &#a% #apa& #psa'%a" #a" &ermasu% #alam *a)a pro#u%s u"&u%
me"ger,a%a" pro#u% 'asl")a+ Dar *a)a ma&eral 'a"#l"g a#a se*aga" )a"g
&ermasu% *a)a la"gsu"g 3#re/& /os&4 #a" se*aga" *a)a &#a% la"gsu"g 3"#re/&
/os&4+
Tugas2&ugas #ar *aga" ma&eral 'a"#l"g a"&ara la" :
a+ Me"ga#a%a" pe")el#%a" #a" a"alss u"&u% #apa& me"e"&u%a"
*agama"a%ega&a" ma&eral 'a"#l"g #la%u%a" se'"gga #apa& le*' e0se"+
*+ Mere"/a"a%a"( me"ga#a%a" pe"gu,a"7pe"ge&esa" #ar per%em*a"ga" ala&2ala&
ma&eral 'a"#l"g )a"g *aru+
/+ Mem*er%a" re%ome"#as me"ge"a per*a%a" )a"g perlu #la%u%a" #alam/ara2
/ara pem"#a'a" *a'a" 3ma&eral 'a"#l"g4 #a" #alam pemasa"ga" perle"g%apa"
#a" perala&a" 'a"#l"g )a"g *aru+
#+ Me"g%u& pela%sa"aa" #a" mem*ua& lapora" me"ge"a pemasa"ga" perle"g%apa"
a&au perala&a" 'a"#l"g )a"g *aru &erse*u&+
DA=TAR PUSTAKA
A"o")mous( :014+ 3!"l"e4+ Peramala" Perm"&aa"+ '&&p:77ra)$el+0les+.or#press+/om+
Da%ses pa#a Ta"ggal :0 Mare& :014+
Assaur( So),a"+ :00;+ Ma"a,eme" Pro#u%s #a" !peras+ -a%ar&a: LP=9UI+
S&umora"g( S)a0r>al Helm( D%%+ :00;+ A"alss Da&a Pe"el&a"+ USU Press( Me#a"+
Re"#er( 8arr)+ -a) Ha>er+ :001+ Pr"sp2Pr"sp Ma"a,eme" !peras + -a%ar&a: Salem*a
9mpa&+