MEMAHAMIPEMANASAN

GLOBAL&PERUBAHANIKLIM
FabbyTumiwa

EFEKRUMAHKACA

IPCC
CC
2007
2

KESEIMBANGANENERGIRADIASI

IPCC 2007

 Efek rumah kaca mengakibatkan terjadinya

fenomena Pemanasan Global.
g p
oleh bumi diserap
p
Radiasi matahari yyangdipantulkan
oleh atmosfer bumi yangmengandung gasgas
rumah kaca.
Peningkatan konsentrasi GasRumah Kaca (GRK)di
atmosfer terjadi akibat berbagai aktivitas manusia.

DAFTARGASGASRUMAHKACA

 Gas
GasRumah
Rumah Kaca dihasilkan dari berbagai
aktivitas:pembakaran bahan bakar fossildalam
untuk kegiatan
g
transportasi,pembangkitan
p
,p
g
energi,proses industri;pertanian,penggunaan
lahan,pembabatan hutan,dan lainsebagainya.
Dalam suatu siklus karbon,GRKdikeluarkan dan
diserap.Penambahan
p
konsentrasi GRK
menyebabkan kemampuan penyerapan karbon
oleh alam berkurang.

SIKLUS KARBON
SIKLUSKARBON

IPCC 2007

Lebih banyak CO2yangtertinggal di Atmosphere

MoreCO2 Remainsinthe
Atmosphere
Humanactivitieshavepumpedexcessiveamounts
Human
activities have pumped excessive amounts
ofcarbondioxide(CO2)intotheatmosphere.
NaturalprocessesthatabsorbCO2cannotkeepup.
Astheoceanabsorbscarbondioxide,itbecomes
more acidic This combined with increasing ocean
moreacidic.Thiscombinedwithincreasingocean
temperatures,diminishesitsabilitytocontinue
absorbingCO2.Asaresult,moreCO2staysinthe
atmosphere.
In 1960 a metric ton (1 000 kilograms; ~2 205
In1960,ametricton(1,000kilograms;~2,205
pounds)ofCO2emissionsresultedinaround400
kilograms(~881pounds)ofCO2remaininginthe
atmosphere(Figure1).In2006,ametrictonofCO2
emissions results in around 450 kilograms (~992
emissionsresultsinaround450kilograms(~992
pounds)remainingintheatmosphere.[2] Hencea
tonofCO2emissionstodayresultsinmoreheat
trappingcapacityintheatmospherethanthesame
ton emitted decades ago
tonemitteddecadesago.

Apa yangmenyebabkan peningkatan

temperatur global?
global?
(a) Hasil modeldan observasi
peningkatan temperatur dari proses
alami
(b) Hasil modeldan observasi
peningkatan temperatur akibat
aktivitas manusia
(c) Hasil modeldan
model dan observasi
peningkatan temperatur akibat proses
alami dan aktivitas manusia.

Konsentrasi CO2 Atmosferik Global

Thermometers:globalThasrisen0.8Cin125yrs
C

Greenbarsshow95%
G
b
h 95%
confidenceintervals

Upwardtrendcontinues;2005wasanew
record;wereat0.8Cabove1880
1900average;0.5Csince1970.

J.Hansenetal.,PNAS103:14288293(26Sept2006)

DAMPAKPENINGKATANPEMANASANGLOBAL

KENAIKANMUKA
LAUTGLOBAL

KENAIKANPERMUKAANAIRLAUT

IPCC2007:
IPCC
2007:
for19612003:
Data1.8mm/year
Models1.2mm/year

LinearTrend19932008:3.2mm/year
IPCCTARbestestimate:2.0mm/year

17
Updatedfrom:Rahmstorfetal.Science2007

SeaLevelRisebyEndofThisCentury
Newanalysisprovidesestimatesforsealevelrisebytheendofthis
centurybetweenaplausiblelevelandaphysicallypossiblethoughless
t
b t
l ibl l l d h i ll
ibl th
hl
likelylevel.Source(IPCC2007andPfeffer etal.2008)

UnequivocalWarmingofEarth..
q
g f

AshleyCooper
A
hl C
Picimpact/Corbis

Source:
IPCC, UCS, 2007

Thaw

NASA

BBC AP

Avalanche

Drought

Coral Bleaching
CoralBleaching

NA
ASA

Amazon
Drought

UK gov
UK.gov

NationalParkService

Earthhaswarmed0.74C(TARpredicted0.6ConBAU)

Sheh
hzadNoorani
StillPicctures

GlacierMelt

Flood

R.Rogers/Reuteers

USGS

Heatwave

SeaLevelRise

FutureRisks:
RiseAbove19801999of12C(
RiseAbove19801999
b
of45C(
of34C(
ff ((7.29.0F
5.47.2F
1.83.6F))
of23C(
3.65.4F
Faarmtrails.org

NOAA

ShehzadN
Noorani
StillPicturess

Farmtraails.org
Farmtrails.org
Farmtrails.orrg

ww
ww.southamericaan
exp
perience.co.uk

NASA

FWS

Farmtraails.org

BBCA
AFP

ChiildrensHospital
Oaakland

USGS

DadoGaldieri AP

Farmtrails.org
AP/TPI Tribune
A

Increasesome
Significant
Increasedwater
cereal extinctions
extinctions
terrestrial
terrestrial
availability
availabilityhigh
high
t
terrestrial
t
i
l
northernsea
Upto30%of
productivity
aroundthe
Decreasecereal
biosphere
latitudes
biosphere
routes
speciesat
midhigh
globe
productivity
becomesnet
becomesnet
increasingrisk
BaardNaeslatitudes
BBC
someregions
carbonsource
ofcarbonsource
ofextinction
extinction
Increased
deaths,disease,
Millionsmore
Decrease
Decreaseall
Decreasesome
andinjurydue
peoplecould
freshwater
cereal
cereal
cereal
to
tofloods
floods
I
Increased
d
experience
availabilityfor
productivitylow
Largeincrease NewYorkTimes
productivitylow
~30%ofglobal
mortalityfrom
Increased
billionpeople
latitudes ShehzadNoorani coastalflooding
areaburned
latitudes
UNICEF
5m
coastal
droughtsWidespread
frequencyof
eachyear
coralmortality
wetlandslost
cardio
cardio
Most corals
Mostcorals
Increases
Increasesin
in
UK gov
UK.gov
Altered
Altered
respiratory
Committolong
bleached
coastalwater
Disappearanceof
distributionof
diseasesdueto
termicesheet
temperature
Replacementof
Glaciers
diseasevectors
climateinduced
melt
worsenscholera
tropicalforestby
smog
contributionof
t ib ti
f
abundance
savannaineastern
46meterssea
Source:
Source:Source:
Amazon
IPCC,2007
UCS, 2007
2007
IPCC, UCS,
levelrise
IPCC,
UCS,
AshleyCooper
~40%of
~15%of
Picimpact/Corbis
Morenavigable

WHOestimatesclimatechangealreadycausing150,000
premature deaths/yr in 2000
prematuredeaths/yrin2000

INSTITUTEFORESSENTIALSERVICESREFORM(IESR)
www.iesrindonesia.org
www.iesr
indonesia.org
fabby@iesrindonesia.org

TERIMA KASIH