PROPOSAL PROGRAM KREATIVITAS MAHASISWA

PENGEMBANGAN STOK LPG 3KG DENGAN PERAMALAN

MENGGUNAKAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DI KOTA BLITAR

BIDANG KEGIATAN
PKM - PENELITIAN

Diusulkan Oleh:
Wenny Puspita Sari 160312604872 Angkatan 2016
Fajar Rifqi Setiawan 170611633635 Angkatan 2017
Ainun Megawati Saputri 170523627005 Angkatan 2017

UNIVERSITAS NEGERI MALANG

MALANG
2018

PENGESAHAN PROPOSAL PKM - PENELITIAN
1. Judul Kegiatan
2. Bidang Kegiatan
3. Ketua Pelaksana Kegiatan
a. Nama Lengkap
b. NIM
c. Jurusan
d. Institut
e. Alamat Rumah dan No. HP
f. Email
4. Anggota Pelaksana Kegiatan
5. Dosen Pendamping
a. Nama Lengkap dan Gelar
b. NIDN
c. Alamat Rumah dan No. Telp. : Perum Puri Cempaka Putih CC-22 Jl.
6. Biaya Kegiatan Total
a. Kemenristekdikti
b. Sumber Lain (sebutkan ....) :-
7. Jangka Waktu Pelaksanaan
Menyetujui,
Wakil Dekan III,
(Dr. Fatchur Rohman, M.Si)
NIP. 196512081991031005
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: Pengembangan Stok LPG 3 kg
DenganPeramalan Menggunakan Metode
Exponential Smoothing Di Kota Blitar
: PKM-P
: Wenny Puspita Sari
: 160312604872
: Matematika
: Universitas Negeri Malang
: Desa Sumberjo 04/02 Kecamatan
Sanankulon Kabupaten Blitar dan
085735184377
: wennypuspita97@gmail.com
: 2 orang
: Dr. SwasonoRahardjo, S.Pd, M.Si
: 10106608
MayjenSungkono Malang 65132
Telp. (0341) 751079 HP. 081230269307
:11.250.000,-
: Rp. 11.250.000,-
: 5 Bulan
Malang, 2 Oktober 2018
Ketua Pelaksana
(Wenny Puspita Sari)
NIM. 160312604872
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Wakil Rektor III, Dosen Pendamping

Bidang Kemahasiswaan

(Dr. Syamsul Hadi, M.Pd., M.Ed.) (Dr.SwasonoRahardjo,S.Pd, M.Si)

NIP. 196108221987031001 NIDN. 0010106608

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DAFTAR ISI

LEMBAR PENGESAHAN.............................................................................ii
DAFTAR ISI...................................................................................................iv
BAB 1 PENDAHULUAN...............................................................................1
1.1 Latar Belakang......................................................................................1
1.2 Rumusan Masalah.................................................................................2
1.3 Tujuan...................................................................................................2
1.4 Urgensi Penelitian.................................................................................2
1.5 Manfaat..................................................................................................3
1.6 Luaran....................................................................................................3
BAB 2 TINJAUAN PUSTAKA......................................................................4
2.1 Forecasting (Peramalan)........................................................................4
2.2 Exponential Smoothing.........................................................................4
2.3 Nilai ketepatan Prediksi........................................................................4
2.3.1 Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD).......................................... ......5
2.3.2 Mean Square Error (MSE) ..................................................... ......5
2.3.3 Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ...................................5
2.4 Certainty Factor ....................................................................................6
BAB 3 METODE PENELITIAN.....................................................................7
3.1 Pendekatan dan Jenis Penelitian.......................................................7
3.2 Subjek Penelitian............................................................................7
3.3 Jenis dan Sumber Data....................................................................7
3.4 Tahap-tahap penelitian....................................................................7
3.5 Teknik Pengumpulan Data..............................................................8
3.6 Teknik Analisis Data...........................................................................8
BAB 4 BIAYA DAN JADWAL KEGIATAN...............................................9
4.1 Anggaran Biaya....................................................................................9
4.2 Jadwal Kegiatan....................................................................................9
KAJIAN PUSTAKA .....................................................................................10
Lampiran 1. Biodata Ketua, Anggota dan Dosen Pembimbing..................12
Lampiran 2. Justifikasi Anggaran Kegiatan...................................................21
Lampiran 3. Susunan Organisasi Tim Kegiatan dan Pembagian Tugas.....22
Surat Pernyataan Ketua Peneliti/Pelaksana...................................................23

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