ME-3036

Perubahan Iklim

Climate Modeling and Climate Change

Assessment
 Overview:
+ Climate System (1)
 Istilah “iklim” pengertiannya luas
 Tergantung sudut pandang disiplin ilmu, contoh:
 Geology: pengaruh eksternal yang mendorong berbagai
fenomena yg dikaji
 Agrikultur: kondisi “normal” dari cuaca dari tahun ke
tahun atau dari hari ke hari
 dll

 Tergantung dari skala spasial

 Global, regional, lokal

 Tergantung dari skala waktu kajian

 Millenium, abad, dekade, dll

 Tergantung dari tiga hal di atas, iklim dipahami

sebagai feature dari keseluruhan sistem iklim yang
paling penting bagi kajian yang dilakukan
 Overview:
+ Climate System (2)
The Climate Cube:

Climate Cube. Iklim dpat dipandang secara

umum berada dalam tiga domain:
waktu,ruang dan persepsi manusia.

Disini ditunjukkan satu dari banyak

kemungkinan pembagian domain-domain
tersebut.

Secara historis, disiplin-disiplin ilmu

spesifik hanya membahas satu “sel” saja.

Sistim iklim secara keseluruhan dan

interaksi antar domain belum begitu
dipahami.
A Climate Modelling Primer, Third
Edition. K. McGuffie and A.
Henderson-Sellers. (2005)
 Overview:
+ Climate System (3)
 Secara luas iklim dapat didefinisikan sebagai:

‘semua statistik yang menjelaskan atmosfer dan laut dalam satu

rentang waktu (musim, dekade, atau lebih panjang), yang dihitung
untuk seluruh bumi atau wilayah tertentu’

 Variabel statistik yang sering digunakan: Variance (variabilitas)

dan Mean (rata-rata)

 Perubahan iklim: perbedaan antara dua kondisi iklim berdasarkan

variabel statistik tersebut:
 Overview:
+ Climate System (4)

Sistem iklim didefinisikan sebagai:

 Oleh Global Atmospheric Research
Programme (GARP) : atmosfer, hidrosfer,
cryosfer, geosfer dan biosfer.
 Oleh United Nation’s Framework
Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) :
‘the totality of the atmosphere,
hydrosphere, biosphere and geosphere
and their interactions’
 Overview:
+ Climate System (5)
+ Energy budget
Important Cycles

Carbon cycle

Hydrological cycle
+
Climate Change vs Climate
Variability

 Climate variability – The way climate fluctuates yearly

above or below a long-term average value.

 Climate change – Long-term continuous change (increase

or decrease) to average weather conditions or the range of
weather.  New Normal!!

 Climatological normal – 30-year average of a weather

variable.

Natural Climate Change vs

Anthropogenic Climate Change ??
+
How do they do that?
How does the IPCC know
what is going to happen?

Our best means of anticipating

climate change is by means of

computer climate models.

+ A Physical Model

The “real thing”

Airfix Model
 A Mathematical Model:
The Population Explosion
Observation

Prediction Model
+
Climate Models

• The climate system is enormously complex

• Climate models are amongst the most

complex models in all of science

• Climate models are based on fluid

mechanics and thermodynamics
+ The Atmospheric Equations

• The Navier-Stokes Equations

• The Continuity Equation

• Continuity Equation for Water

• The Thermodynamic Equation

• The Equation of State

(Boyle/Charles)
+
CLIMATE MODEL

Hierarchy of Complexity of Climate Models

Neelin J.D. Climate Chane and Climate Modeling (2011)

+ Planck’s Law of Black Body Radiation

The spectrum of energy emitted from a black body of a certain temperature T can
be calculated from Planck's law of black body radiation.

Left Figure: black body radiation for the Sun (TS=5500 K) and Earth (TE=255 K).

Right Figure: comparison of observed radiation and approximated by Planck’s

curve
 The simplest possible way of constructing a model of the
+ Earth’s climate is to consider the radiative balance of the
globe as a whole:
0-D Energy Balance Model

Earth is heated by
absorption of solar
radiation and cooled
by radiating thermal
(longwave) radiation
back to space.

The incoming shortwave radiation from the sun averaged

over Earth's surface is
S=S0/4=342 W/m2.

The “solar constant” S0 = 1370 W/m2

 0-D Energy Balance Model (2)
+
Some part of this incoming radiation is reflected back to
space by clouds or snow and ice cover on the ground.

This fraction is called planetary albedo (Earth’s is about

a=0.3)

Assuming steady state: the shortwave radiation absorbed by

the Earth's surface must equal the longwave radiation
emitted back to space at the equilibrium temperature Te:
FSW = Fe

(1-a)S = σTe4 (Eq.1)

Incoming

σ =5.67x10-8 W/(m2K4) is reflected emitted

the Stefan Boltzmann
constant
surface
 0-D Energy Balance Model (3)
+
Solving for Eq. 1 give predicted equilibrium equilibrium
temperature of earth: -18.2°C

Earth's actual average surface temperature is about 15°C.

What went wrong?
The answer is : Atmosphere!
The atmosphere allows only a fraction τ of the surface radiation to be
transmitted to space.
It will assume a temperature Ta which leads to emission of longwave radiation
Fa= σ Ta4 to both space and downward to the surface.

We have two equations for the energy balance:

(1-a)S = Fe – Fa (Eq.2) for surface

(1- τ )Fe = 2Fa (Eq.3) for atmosphere

Insert Eq.3 to Eq.2:

(Eq.4)
 0-D Energy Balance Model (4)
+
Eq.4 incorporated a term g,
which is called the
greenhouse factor.

With atmosphere's
transmissivity is τ =0.23 and
thus g=0.62, Eq. 4 predicted a
realistic surface temperature of
Te=15°C.

The atmosphere temperature

of Ta=-46°C, which is close to
the observed temperature of
the tropopause.
+ Schematic of the Earth’s energy budget

The magnitude of the

greenhouse effect is
commonly
measured as the
difference between the
blackbody emission at the
surface temperature (390
Wm-2), and the outgoing
infrared radiation at the
top of the atmosphere
(here 70
units or 239 Wm-2) = 151
Wm-2
+ Latitudinal Energy Budget and Global Circulation

The latitudinal radiative imbalance (a) leads to global atmospheric circulation

( b). This circulation, combined with the vertical distribution of
temperature, represents the major aspects of the atmospheric climate system
+
System Feedback
+Water Vapour and Cloud Feedback
Water vapour contributes to greenhouse warming as a result of its
absorption of infrared radiation emitted from the surface
(+ feedback).
But Clouds have two radiative effects in the Earth’s atmosphere that
tend to act in opposite ways:
Low clouds reflect sunlight but
trap little infra-red radiation;
They act to cool climate
(-feedback)
High clouds reflect sulight but
also trap infra-red radiation;
They act to warm climate
(+feedback)
Global warming may change the characteristics of
clouds, thus altering their effect on climate
+ Ice Albedo Feedback

Increasing global surface temperature, then snow and ice (high albedo)
will melt and their overall areas reduce. Reducing them means that a
smaller amount of solar radiation will be reflected away from the planet.

Increased absorption leads to higher temperatures. A further decrease in

snow and ice results from this increased temperature and the process
continues.

(+ Feedback)
+ Biogenic CO2 Feedback

If CO2 levels rise (or fall), the planet becomes warmer (or cooler) which
increases (decreases) both the biological weathering of silicate rocks and
the fixation of CO2 by plants and its subsequent burial

Both these effects reduce (increase) atmospheric CO2, thus providing

(-feedbacks).
+ Ocean and Atmosphere
Coupled
+ Current Climate Modeling
AO-GCM

Illustration of the basic

characteristics and
processes within an
AOGCM, showing the
manner in which the
atmosphere and ocean are
split into columns.

Both atmosphere and

ocean are modelled as a
set of interacting columns
distributed across the
Earth’s surface
+

The world in Global

Climate Model
+
+ Climate Projections:
“Raw” Model Outputs
Sample grid point
( 2.5o x 1.67o Res.)

IPSL-CM5A-MR
RCP 4.5
Downscaling of CMIP5 climate projection :
+ ideal: dynamical downscaled
Dynamical
Downscaling

Bias correction
works well in
reducing spurious
signal from
original model
output
3. Downscaling of CMIP5 climate projection :
alternative: dynamical downscaled CMIP5 data are not (or insufficiently)
available
Statistical Downscaling
+ Climate Projections:
Downscaled Rainfall Projections

Statistical
Downscaling

10 ensemble
members per
model

Area averaged
over BS
watershed
 Overview:
+ Climate System (5)
+ Energy budget
Important Cycles

Carbon cycle

Hydrological cycle
+
Parameterisation

We have to represent a wide range of processes occurring on scales smaller

than the resolution of the models.

• Convective and stratiform clouds

• Infrared and visible radiation
• The topography of the Earth's surface
• Atmospheric turbulence on many scales.
+
CLIMATE MODEL

Hierarchy of Complexity of Climate Models

Neelin J.D. Climate Chane and Climate Modeling (2011)

+ CMIP5
(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)

A framework for coordinated climate change experiments for

assessment in the IPCC AR5

CMIP5 provide a multi-model context for

1) assessing the mechanisms responsible for model

differences in poorly understood feedbacks associated
with the carbon cycle and with clouds,

2) examining climate “predictability” and exploring the

ability of models to predict climate on decadal time scales,

3) determining why similarly forced models produce a range

of responses.

http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/
+

The relationship of CMIP5 (which is organized by WGCM) to

organizations established to coordinate climate research activities
internationally and to the IPIPCC, the modeling centers, and the
climate research community
+
CMIP5 Objectives
To:
 address outstanding scientific questions arising from IPCC AR4
 improve understanding of climate, i.e. to understand some of the
factors responsible for differences in model projections, including
quantifying some key feedbacks such as those involving clouds
and the carbon cycle

 evaluate how realistic the models are in simulating the recent past,

 provide projections of future climate change on two time scales,

near term (out to about 2035) and long term (out to 2100 and
beyond), and
Not intended to be comprehensive – other experiments will emerge
along the way
+ CMIP5 Experiments
Two types of climate change modeling experiments:

1) long-term (century time scale), usually started from

multicentury preindustrial control (quasi equilibrium)
integrations

2) near-term (10–30 yr), also called decadal prediction

experiments, initialized with observed ocean and sea ice
conditions

Both are integrated using atmosphere–ocean global climate

models (AOGCMs), the “standard” models used in previous CMIP
phases.

The AOGCMs respond to specified, time-varying

concentrations of various atmospheric constituents (e.g.,
greenhouse gases) and include an interactive representation of
the atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice.

For the long-term simulations, some of the AOGCMs will be

coupled to biogeochemical components that account for the
important fluxes of carbon between the ocean, atmosphere, and
terrestrial biosphere carbon reservoirs [Earth system models
(ESMs)],
+ Climate Change Scenarios
 The CMIP5 projections of climate change are driven by
concentration or emission scenarios called RCPs (Radiative
Concentration Pathaways)

 SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) did not include

policy intervention, while the RCPs are mitigation scenarios that
assume policy actions will be taken to achieve certain emission
targets.

 RCPs have been formulated based on a range of projections of

future population growth, technological development, and societal
responses.

 The labels for the RCPs provide a rough estimate of the radiative
forcing in the year 2100 (relative to preindustrial conditions).

 For example, the radiative forcing in RCP8.5 increases throughout

the twenty-first century before reaching a level of about 8.5 W m−2
at the end of the century. In addition to this “high” scenario, there
are two intermediate scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP6, and a low so-
called peak-and-decay scenario, RCP2.6, in which radiative
forcing reaches a maximum near the middle of the twenty-first
century before decreasing to an eventual nominal level of 2.6 W
m−2.
+

Radiative forcing: difference of incoming solar radiation absorbed by the Earth and
energy radiated back to space.
+
+ CMIP5 Design Summary

• All models perform CORE experiments (basis for intercomparison)

• Models perform Tier 1 and Tier 2 experiments as interests and
resources dictate: these explore specific aspects of model forcing,
response, and process
+ Near term (decadal) experiments

Assess model skill on

time scales where initial
state may exert some
influence

At least 3
ensemble
members
for each
run
Assess model skill on
time scales where GHG
forcing expected to
exert some influence
+ Long term experiments
Pre-industrial control
(ca. 1850) and 20th
century, forced by
concentrations and by
emissions
Future scenarios (RCPs)
forced by
concentrations and by
emissions

“Diagnostic” runs to
assess transient climate
response, equilibrium
climate sensitivity

Green font indicates experiment performed

only by models with carbon cycle
representation
+ Long term experiments, cont’d
Partial-forcing and
single-forcing factor
experiments to quantify
C-climate feedbacks

Additional RCPs and

multi-century
simulations
And many other
simulations…

“Diagnostic” runs to
assess C-climate
feedbacks and
allowable (fossil fuel +
land use) emissions

Green font indicates experiment performed

only by models with carbon cycle
representation
All models:

Control,
historical,
and paleo

Future
scenarios
(RCPs)

Diagnostic
simulations
(feedbacks)

Attribution
runs (single
and multi-
factor)
+
Simulations only performed by
ESMs…

Forced by fossil fuel emissions and land use changes,

as opposed to concentrations
+
+ Data access:
https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/
CURRENTLY DOWN!!
+ Coordinated Regional Climate
Downscaling Experiment
(CORDEX)
Global partnership on
regional climate
downscaling efforts, both
dynamical and empirical-
statistical downscaling
experiment.

Consists of 14 domains (a
region for which the
regional downscaling is
taking place)

Indonesia is part of South

East Asia CORDEX
Domain
+

Website:
http://www.ukm.my/
seaclid-cordex/
+
+
EMPIRICAL-STATISTICAL
DOWNSCALING (ESD)
Motivation:
Problems with general circulation models (GCMs)on
- Coarse resolutions. Impact studies need finer
resolution for planning
- Grid parameterization schemes not okay for all
regions
- Important feedback of local factor (topography,
geography, etc.) on local and global climate is
missing

and no (or limited) computational resources.

y, geography, etc.) on local and global climate is missing
+
EMPIRICAL-STATISTICAL
DOWNSCALING (ESD)Verification/
Skill Estimates Operational
Large scale
X HINDCAST HINDCAST FORECAST

YDEV=F(XDEV) YVER=F(XVER) YOP=F(XOP)

Local Scale
Y OBSERVATION OBS ?

DEVELOPMENT PERIOD IMPLEMENTATION PERIOD

F: Transfer Function/Calibration/Correction Factor

+
Challenges to statistical downscaling as
used in climate change impacts
prediction
• It is regionally-dependent
• Will the relationship between predictor large-scale
variable and local-scale variable remain the same under
climate change?
• Karl et al. (1990) suggests that atmospheric extremes are
already included in any large enough sample of daily
observations used for training the statistical model
• Busuioc et al. (1999) suggests that a good agreement
between the GCM simulations of future climate and the
statistical model predictions might be indicative of a good
statistical model for using under climate change
+
Simple Bias Correction
+
Change Factor (Delta Method)
+ Quantile Based Bias Correction (1)
Fukami and Inomata (2012)
+ Quantile Based Bias Correction (2)
Fukami and Inomata (2012)
 Overview:
+ Climate System (3)
 Secara luas iklim dapat didefinisikan sebagai:

‘semua statistik yang menjelaskan atmosfer dan laut dalam satu

rentang waktu (musim, dekade, atau lebih panjang), yang dihitung
untuk seluruh bumi atau wilayah tertentu’

 Variabel statistik yang sering digunakan: Variance (variabilitas)

dan Mean (rata-rata)

 Perubahan iklim: perbedaan antara dua kondisi iklim berdasarkan

variabel statistik tersebut:
+ Climate Projections:
“Raw” Model Outputs
Sample grid point
( 2.5o x 1.67o Res.)

IPSL-CM5A-MR
RCP 4.5
+ Climate Projections:
Downscaled Rainfall Projections

Statistical
Downscaling

10 ensemble
members per
model

Area averaged
over BS
watershed