PENDAHULUAN
SAHAM
Saham adalah bukti kemilikan suatu individu/badan usaha pada sebuah perusahaan
terbuka yang sahamnya tercatat dan ditransaksinkan di bursa efek. Jika nasabah
membeli/memiliki saham dari suatu perusahaan, maka nasabah turut serta memiliki
perusahaan tersebut dan juga memiliki hak pada kekayaan maupun penghasilannya. Sebagai
pemilik, nasabah berhak mengikuti Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham (RUPS) dan memiliki
hak suara yang dapat turut menentukan kebijakan perusahaan serta menerima bagian dari
keuntungan yang dibagikan pada pemegang saham (deviden).
Jenis saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia dapat dikategorikan sesuai dengan kapitalisasi
pasar (besar nilai yang diperdagangkan), yaitu:
1.Saham Unggulan (Big Cap) Saham jenis ini mayoritas tercatat pada indeks LQ45. Selain
nilai kapitalisasinya yang besar, saham-saham ini juga tergolong saham perusahaan besar
dengan kinerja dan fundamental yang baik.
2.Saham Lapis Kedua (Medium Cap) Saham jenis ini setingkat dibawah blue chip.
Pergerakan harganya cenderung fluktuatid dan ada beberapa saham yang kurang likuid.
Namun, fundamental perusahaan cukup baik dan masih dalam tahap proses berkembang.
3.Saham Lapis Ketiga (Small Cap) Saham jenis ini memiliki kapitalisasi pasar yang kecil
dan sedikit orang yang memilikinya.
KEUNTUNGAN
Deviden
Pembagian keuntungan yang diberikan perusahaan dan berasal dari keuntungan yang
dihasilkan perusahaan. Deviden diberikan setelah mendapat persetujuan dari pemegang
saham dalam RUPS. Jika seorang investor ingin mendapatkan deviden, maka investor
tersebut harus memegang saham tersebut dalam periode dimana diakui sebaga pemegang
saham yang berhak mendapatkan deviden.
Capital Gain
Selisih antara harga beli dan harga jual dari saham yang dimiliki oleh investor. Capital
gain terbentuk dengan adanya aktivitas perdagangan saham di pasar sekunder. Misalnya
investor membeli saham ABC dengan harga per saham Rp. 3.000 kemudian menjualnya
dengan harga Rp. 3.500 per saham yang berarti investor tersebut mendapatkan capital gain
sebesar Rp. 500 untuk setiap saham yang dijualnya.
RESIKO
Capital Loss
Merupakan kebalikan dari capital gain,yaitu suatu kondisi dimana investor menjual
saham lebih rendah dari harga beli.
Resiko Likuidasi
Resiko yang dapat terjadi dikarenakan saham yang dimiliki tidak dapat dijual dengan
cepat atau pada harga yang diinginkan.
Pasar Negosiasi
Pasar Tunai
Pasar Tunai tersedia untuk menyelesaikan kegagalan anggota Bursa dalam memenuhi
kewajibannya di Pasar Reguler dan Pasar Negosiasi. Pasar Tunai dilaksanakan dengan prinsip
pembayaran dan penyerahan seketika (cash & carry).
Dibawah ini diketahui data mengenai tingkat pengembalian atau imbal hasil (return) dari lima
jenis sekuritas, dan probabilitas kejadian sebagai berikut :
Tingkat Pengembalian
No Saham Saham Saham Saham Saham Probabilitas
A (𝑅𝐴 ) B (𝑅𝐵 ) C (𝑅𝐶 ) D (𝑅𝐷 ) E (𝑅𝐸 )
1 0,00% -1,26% 0,74% -1,55% 0,89% 0,04
2 -1,10% -4,30% -1,86% 0,00% 0,00% 0,01
3 0,00% 0,98% 0,33% -0,78% -0,90% 0,07
4 -0,20% 0,00% 1,73% 0,76% 0,89% 0,04
5 1,10% 1,29% 1,91% 0,76% 2,63% 0,01
6 3% 2,88% 0,85% 3,01% -0,91% 0,05
7 -1,90% -0,97% -0,11% 0,00% 1,80% 0,03
8 -2,80% -3,30% 0,21% -0,77% -0,92% 0,09
9 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,02
10 -0,20% -0,33% -0,65% -0,77% 1,82% 0,04
11 2,40% 1,89% 0,53% 0,78% 5,17% 0,02
12 1,60% 1,54% 0,85% -3,15% 4,31% 0,03
13 -0,50% -2,87% 0,53% -0,79% -1,82% 0,05
14 -1,10% -3,21% -3,48% -0,79% -2,78% 0,01
15 3,40% 3,03% 0,11% -0,78% 0,87% 0,01
16 -1,60% 0,00% -0,11% 1,53% -3,51% 0,02
17 -0,53% -1,89% 0,00% -1,54% -4,76% 0,03
18 0,00% -0,62% -0,21% 0,75% 5,13% 0,04
19 -1,09% -0,32% 1,27% -1,50% 3,31% 0,04
20 1,62% 2,14% 0,11% 1,48% 0,00% 0,05
21 0,00% 0,30% 0,32% -1,50% -1,71% 0,02
22 0,00% 0,61% 0,64% 2,24% 3,31% 0,04
23 -1,62% -1,52% -0,96% -1,52% 4,72% 0,03
24 0,80% -0,62% 0,00% 0,75% -3,28% 0,02
25 -1,07% -1,25% -1,30% 0,74% 0,00% 0,05
26 1,61% 1,25% 2,16% 0,74% 6,35% 0,04
27 1,32% 2,72% 1,73% -0,74% -3,31% 0,06
28 0,78% 1,79% 1,19% 1,44% 4,58% 0,01
29 0,00% -1,80% 0,87% 0,00% 4,38% 0,02
30 0,26% 0,30% -0,32% 1,44% 6,80% 0,01
1. Perhitungan Ekspektasi Return, Standar Deviasi, dan Koefisien Variasi (Saham A)
𝐑𝐁 – (𝐑 𝐁 - Pi (𝐑 𝐁 -
NO 𝐑𝐁 Pi Pi 𝐑 𝐁
(∑Pi𝐑 𝐁 ) ∑Pi𝐑 𝐁 )² Pi𝐑 𝐁 )²
1 0,30% 0,04 0,01% 0,19% 0,04% 0,00%
2 -1,80% 0,01 -0,02% -1,91% 3,65% 0,04%
3 1,79% 0,07 0,13% 1,68% 2,82% 0,20%
4 2,72% 0,04 0,11% 2,61% 6,81% 0,27%
5 1,25% 0,01 0,01% 1,14% 1,30% 0,01%
6 -1,25% 0,05 -0,06% -1,36% 1,85% 0,09%
7 -0,62% 0,03 -0,02% -0,73% 0,53% 0,02%
8 -1,52% 0,09 -0,14% -1,63% 2,66% 0,24%
9 0,61% 0,02 0,01% 0,50% 0,25% 0,01%
10 0,30% 0,04 0,01% 0,19% 0,04% 0,00%
11 2,14% 0,02 0,04% 2,03% 4,12% 0,08%
12 -0,32% 0,03 -0,01% -0,43% 0,18% 0,01%
13 -0,62% 0,05 -0,03% -0,73% 0,53% 0,03%
14 -1,89% 0,01 -0,02% -2,00% 4,00% 0,04%
15 0,00% 0,01 0,00% -0,11% 0,01% 0,00%
16 3,03% 0,02 0,06% 2,92% 8,53% 0,17%
17 -3,21% 0,03 -0,10% -3,32% 11,02% 0,33%
18 -2,87% 0,04 -0,11% -2,98% 8,88% 0,36%
19 1,54% 0,04 0,06% 1,43% 2,04% 0,08%
20 1,89% 0,05 0,09% 1,78% 3,17% 0,16%
21 -0,33% 0,02 -0,01% -0,44% 0,19% 0,00%
22 0,00% 0,04 0,00% -0,11% 0,01% 0,00%
23 -0,30% 0,03 -0,01% -0,41% 0,17% 0,01%
24 -0,97% 0,02 -0,02% -1,08% 1,17% 0,02%
25 2,88% 0,05 0,14% 2,77% 7,67% 0,38%
26 1,29% 0,04 0,05% 1,18% 1,39% 0,06%
27 0,00% 0,06 0,00% -0,11% 0,01% 0,00%
28 0,98% 0,01 0,01% 0,87% 0,76% 0,01%
29 -4,30% 0,02 -0,09% -4,41% 19,45% 0,39%
30 -1,26% 0,01 -0,01% -1,37% 1,88% 0,02%
E (R B ) = 0,11% Jumlah = 3,01%
Ekspektasi return saham B (Mean atau ERB ) = 0.11%
Standar deviasi (risiko) saham B (σB ) = 1.734935157
Koefisien variasi saham B ( CVB ) = σB / ERB ) =
15.77213779
3. Perhitungan Ekspektasi Return, Standar Deviasi, dan Koefisien Variasi (Saham C)
𝐑𝐂 - (𝐑 𝐂 - Pi (𝐑 𝐂 -
NO 𝐑𝐂 Pi Pi 𝐑 𝐂
∑PiRC ∑Pi𝐑 𝐂 )² Pi𝐑 𝐂 )²
1 -0,32% 0,04 -0,01% -0,56% 0,31% 0,01%
2 0,87% 0,01 0,01% 0,63% 0,40% 0,00%
3 1,19% 0,07 0,08% 0,95% 0,90% 0,06%
4 1,73% 0,04 0,07% 1,49% 2,22% 0,09%
5 2,16% 0,01 0,02% 1,92% 3,69% 0,04%
6 -1,30% 0,05 -0,07% -1,54% 2,37% 0,12%
7 0,00% 0,03 0,00% -0,24% 0,06% 0,00%
8 -0,96% 0,09 -0,09% -1,20% 1,44% 0,13%
9 0,64% 0,02 0,01% 0,40% 0,16% 0,00%
10 0,32% 0,04 0,01% 0,08% 0,01% 0,00%
11 0,11% 0,02 0,00% -0,13% 0,02% 0,00%
12 1,27% 0,03 0,04% 1,03% 1,06% 0,03%
13 -0,21% 0,05 -0,01% -0,45% 0,20% 0,01%
14 0,00% 0,01 0,00% -0,24% 0,06% 0,00%
15 -0,11% 0,01 0,00% -0,35% 0,12% 0,00%
16 0,11% 0,02 0,00% -0,13% 0,02% 0,00%
17 -3,48% 0,03 -0,10% -3,72% 13,8384 41,52%
18 0,53% 0,04 0,02% 0,29% 0,08% 0,00%
19 0,85% 0,04 0,03% 0,61% 0,37% 0,01%
20 0,53% 0,05 0,03% 0,29% 0,0841 0,42%
21 -0,65% 0,02 -0,01% -0,89% 0,7921 1,58%
22 0,00% 0,04 0,00% -0,24% 0,06% 0,00%
23 0,21% 0,03 0,01% -0,03% 0,00% 0,00%
24 -0,11% 0,02 0,00% -0,35% 0,12% 0,00%
25 0,85% 0,05 0,04% 0,61% 0,37% 0,02%
26 1,91% 0,04 0,08% 1,67% 2,79% 0,11%
27 1,73% 0,06 0,10% 1,49% 2,2201 13,32%
28 0,33% 0,01 0,00% 0,09% 0,01% 0,00%
29 -1,86% 0,02 -0,04% -2,10% 4,41% 0,09%
30 0,74% 0,01 0,01% 0,50% 0,25% 0,00%
E (Rc) = 0,24% Jumlah = 57,59%
Ekspektasi return saham C (Mean atau 𝐄𝐑𝐂 ) = 0.24%
𝐑𝐃 - (𝐑 𝐃 - Pi (𝐑 𝐃 -
NO 𝐑𝐃 Pi Pi 𝐑 𝐃
∑Pi𝐑 𝐃 ∑Pi𝐑 𝐃 )² Pi𝐑 𝐃 )²
1 1,44% 0,04 0,06% 1,35% 1,82% 0,07%
2 0,00% 0,01 0,00% -0,09% 0,01% 0,00%
3 1,44% 0,07 0,10% 1,35% 1,82% 0,13%
4 -0,74% 0,04 -0,03% -0,83% 0,69% 0,03%
5 0,74% 0,01 0,01% 0,65% 0,42% 0,00%
6 0,74% 0,05 0,04% 0,65% 0,42% 0,02%
7 0,75% 0,03 0,02% 0,66% 0,44% 0,01%
8 -1,52% 0,09 -0,14% -1,61% 2,59% 0,23%
9 2,24% 0,02 0,04% 2,15% 4,62% 0,09%
10 -1,50% 0,04 -0,06% -1,59% 2,53% 0,10%
11 1,48% 0,02 0,03% 1,39% 1,93% 0,04%
12 -1,50% 0,03 -0,05% -1,59% 2,53% 0,08%
13 0,75% 0,05 0,04% 0,66% 0,44% 0,02%
14 -1,54% 0,01 -0,02% -1,63% 2,66% 0,03%
15 1,53% 0,01 0,02% 1,44% 2,07% 0,02%
16 -0,78% 0,02 -0,02% -0,87% 0,76% 0,02%
17 -0,79% 0,03 -0,02% -0,88% 0,77% 0,02%
18 -0,79% 0,04 -0,03% -0,88% 0,77% 0,03%
19 -3,15% 0,04 -0,13% -3,24% 10,50% 0,42%
20 0,78% 0,05 0,04% 0,69% 0,48% 0,02%
21 -0,77% 0,02 -0,02% -0,86% 0,74% 0,01%
22 0,005 0,04 0,02% 0,41% 0,17% 0,01%
23 -0,77% 0,03 -0,02% -0,86% 0,74% 0,02%
24 0,00% 0,02 0,00% -0,09% 0,01% 0,00%
25 3,01% 0,05 0,15% 2,92% 8,53% 0,43%
26 0,76% 0,04 0,03% 0,67% 0,45% 0,02%
27 0,76% 0,06 0,05% 0,67% 0,45% 0,03%
28 -0,78% 0,01 -0,01% -0,87% 0,76% 0,01%
29 0,00% 0,02 0,00% -0,09% 0,01% 0,00%
30 -1,55% 0,01 -0,02% -1,64% 2,69% 0,03%
E (R D ) = 0,09% Jumlah = 1,94%
Ekspektasi return saham D (Mean atau ERD ) = 0.09%
Standar deviasi (risiko) saham D (σD ) = 1.392838828
Koefisien variasi saham ( CVD ) = σD / ERD ) = 15.47598697
5. Perhitungan Ekspektasi Return, Standar Deviasi, dan Koefisien Variasi (Saham E)
1. Kovarian Saham AA
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.04 =
( -1.10% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -1.10% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.01 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.07 =
( -0.20% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.20% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.04 =
( 1.10% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 1.10% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.01 =
( 3.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 3.00% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.05 =
( -1.90% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -1.90% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.03 =
( -2.80% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -2.80% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.09 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.02 =
( -0.20% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.20% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.04 =
( 2.40% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 2.40% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.02 =
( 1.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 1.00% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.03 =
( -0.50% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.50% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.05 =
( -1.10% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -1.10% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.01 =
( 3,40% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 3,40% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.01 =
( -1.60% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -1.60% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.02 =
( -0.53% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.53% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.03 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.04 =
( -1.09% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -1.09% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.04 =
( 1.62% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 1.62% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.05 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.02 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.04 =
( -1.62% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -1.62% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.03 =
( 0.08% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.08% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.02 =
( -1.07% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -1.07% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.05 =
( 1.61% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 1.61% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.04 =
( 1.32% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 1.32% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.06 =
( 0.78% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.78% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.01 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.02 =
( 0.26% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.26% - ( -0.07%) ) x 0.0
= 0.000196% + 0.010609% + 0.000343% + 0.000676% + 0.013689% + 0.471245%
+ 0.100467% + 0.670761% + 0.000098% + 0.000676% + 0.122018% + 0.034347%
+ 0.009245% + 0.010609% + 0.120409% + 0.046818% + 0.006348% + 0.000098%
+ 0.0001965 + 0.072075% + 0.00045% + 0.05% + 0.112896% + 0.115926% +
0.007225% + 0.000098% + 0.001089% = 2,255564%
2. Kovarian Saham AB
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.30% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.04 =
( -1.10% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -1.80% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.01 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 1.79% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.07 =
( -0.20% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 2.72% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.04 =
( 1.10% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 1.25% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.01 =
( 3.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -1.25% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.05 =
( -1.90% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.62% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.03 =
( -2.80% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -1.52% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.09 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.61% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.02 =
( -0.20% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.30% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.04 =
( 2.40% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 2.14% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.02 =
( 1.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.32% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.03 =
( -0.50% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.62% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.05 =
( -1.10% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -1.89% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.01 =
( 3.40% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.01 =
( -1.60% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 3.03% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.02 =
( -0.53% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -3.21% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.03 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -2.87% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.04 =
( -1.09% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 1.54% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.04 =
( 1.62% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 1.89% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.05 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.33% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.02 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.04 =
( -1.62% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -3.30% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.03 =
( 0.08 % - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.97% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.02 =
( -1.07% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 2.88% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.05 =
( 1.61% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 1.29% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.04 =
( 1.32% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.06 =
( 0.78% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.98% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.01 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -4.30% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.02 =
( 0.26% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -1.26% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.01
3. Kovarian Saham AC
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.32% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.04 =
( -1.10% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.87% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.01 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 1.19% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.07 =
( -0.20% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 1.73% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.04 =
( 1.10% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 2.16% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.01 =
( 3.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -1.30% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.05 =
( -1.90% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.03 =
( -2.80% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.96% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.09 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.64% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.02 =
( -0.20% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.32% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.04 =
( 2.40% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.11% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.02 =
( 1.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 1.27% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.03 =
( -0.50% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.21% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.05 =
( -1.10% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.01 =
( 3.40% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.11% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.01 =
( -1.60% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.11% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.02 =
( -0.53% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -3.48% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.03 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.53% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.04 =
( -1.09% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.85% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.04 =
( 1.62% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.53% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.05 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.65% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.02 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.04 =
( -1.62% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.21% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.03 =
( 0.08% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.11% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.02 =
( -1.07% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.85% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.05 =
( 1.61% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 1.91% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.04 =
( 1.32% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 1.73% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.06 =
( 0.78% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.33% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.01 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -1.86% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.02 =
( 0.26% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.74% - ( 0.24%) ) x 0.01
4. Kovarian Saham AD
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 1.44% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.04 =
( -1.10% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.01 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 1.44% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.07 =
( -0.20% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.74% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.04 =
( 1.10% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.74% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.01 =
( 3.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.74% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.05 =
( -1.90% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.75% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.03 =
( -2.80% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -1.52% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.09 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 2.24% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.02 =
( -0.20% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -1.50% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.04 =
( 2.40% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 1.48% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.02 =
( 1.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -1.50% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.03 =
( -0.50% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.75% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.05 =
( -1.10% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -1.54% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.01 =
( 3.40% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 1.53% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.01 =
( -1.60% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.78% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.02 =
( -0.53% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.79% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.03 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.79% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.04 =
( -1.09% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -3.15% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.04 =
( 1.62% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.78% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.05 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.77% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.02 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.04 =
( -1.62% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.77% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.03 =
( 0.08% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.02 =
( -1.07% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 3.01% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.05 =
( 1.61% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.76% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.04 =
( 1.32% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.76% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.06 =
( 0.78% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.78% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.01 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.02 =
( 0.26% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -1.55% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.01
5. Kovarian Saham AE
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 6,80% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.04 =
( -1.10% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 4.38% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.01 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 4.58% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.07 =
( -0.20% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -3.31% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.04 =
( 1.10% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 6,35% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.01 =
( 3.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.05 =
( -1.90% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -3.28% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.03 =
( -2.80% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 4.72% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.09 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 3.31% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.02 =
( -0.20% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -1.71% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.04 =
( 2.40% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.02 =
( 1.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 3.31% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.03 =
( -0.50% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 5.13% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.05 =
( -1.10% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -4.76% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.01 =
( 3.40% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -3.51% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.01 =
( -1.60% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.87% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.02 =
( -0.53% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -2.78% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.03 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -1.82% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.04 =
( -1.09% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 4.31% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.04 =
( 1.62% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 5.17% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.05 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -1.82% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.02 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.04 =
( -1.62% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.92% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.03 =
( 0.08% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 1.80% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.02 =
( -1.07% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.91% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.05 =
( 1.61% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 2.63% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.04 =
( 1.32% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.89% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.06 =
( 0.78% - ( -0.07%) ) ( -0.90% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.01 =
( 0.00% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.02 =
( 0.26% - ( -0.07%) ) ( 0.89% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.01
6. Kovarian Saham BB
( 0.30% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.30% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.04 =
( -1.80% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -1.80% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.01 =
( 1.79% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 1.79% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.07 =
( 2.72% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 2.72% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.04 =
( 1.25% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 1.25% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.01 =
( -1.25% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -1.25% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.05 =
( -0.62% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -0.62% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.03 =
( -1.52% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -1.52% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.09 =
( 0.61% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.61% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.02 =
( 0.30% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.30% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.04 =
( 2.14% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 2.14% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.02 =
( -0.32% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -0.32% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.03 =
( -0.62% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -0.62% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.05 =
( -1.89% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -1.89% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.01 =
( 0.00% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.01 =
( 3.03% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 3.03% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.02 =
( -3.21% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -3.21% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.03 =
( -2.87% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -2.87% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.04 =
( 1.54% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 1.54% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.04 =
( 1.89% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 1.89% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.05 =
( -0.33% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -0.33% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.02 =
( 0.00% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.04 =
( -3.30% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -3.30% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.03 =
( -0.97% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -0.97% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.02 =
( 2.88 % - ( 0.11%) ) ( 2.88 % - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.05 =
( 1.29% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 1.29% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.04 =
( 0.00% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.06 =
( 0.98% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.98% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.01 =
( -4.30% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -4.30% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.02 =
( -1.26% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -1.26% - ( 0.11%) ) x 0.01
8. Kovarian Saham BD
( 0.30% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 1.44% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.04 =
( -1.80% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.01 =
( 1.79% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 1.44% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.07 =
( 2.72% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -0.74% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.04 =
( 1.25% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.74% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.01 =
( -1.25% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.74% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.05 =
( -0.62% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.75% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.03 =
( -1.52% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -1.52% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.09 =
( 0.61% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 2.24% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.02 =
( 0.30% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -1.50% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.04 =
( 2.14% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 1.48% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.02 =
( -0.32% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -1.50% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.03 =
( -0.62% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.75% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.05 =
( -1.89% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -1.54% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.01 =
( 0.00% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 1.53% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.01 =
( 3.03% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -0.78% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.02 =
( -3.21% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -0.79% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.03 =
( -2.87% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -0.79% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.04 =
( 1.54% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -3.15% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.04 =
( 1.89% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.78% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.05 =
( -0.33% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -0.77% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.02 =
( 0.00% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.04 =
( -3.30% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -0.77% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.03 =
( -0.97% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.02 =
( 2.88% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 3.01% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.05 =
( 1.29% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.76% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.04 =
( 0.00% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.76% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.06 =
( 0.98% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -0.78% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.01 =
( -4.30% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.02 =
( -1.26% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -1.55% - ( 0.09%) ) x 0.01
9. Kovarian Saham BE
( 0.30% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 6,80% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.04 =
( -1.80% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 4.38% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.01 =
( 1.79% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 4.58% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.07 =
( 2.72% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -3.31% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.04 =
( 1.25% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 6,35% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.01 =
( -1.25% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.05 =
( -0.62% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -3.28% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.03 =
( -1.52% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 4.72% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.09 =
( 0.61% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 3.31% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.02 =
( 0.30% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -1.71% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.04 =
( 2.14% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.02 =
( -0.32% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 3.31% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.03 =
( -0.62% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 5.13% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.05 =
( -1.89% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -4.76% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.01 =
( 0.00% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -3.51% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.01 =
( 3.03% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.87% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.02 =
( -3.21% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -2.78% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.03 =
( -2.87% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -1.82% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.04 =
( 1.54% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 4.31% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.04 =
( 1.89% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 5.17% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.05 =
( -0.33% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -1.82% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.02 =
( 0.00% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.04 =
( -3.30% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -0.92% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.03 =
( -0.97% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 1.80% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.02 =
( 2.88% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -0.91% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.05 =
( 1.29% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 2.63% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.04 =
( 0.00% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.89% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.06 =
( 0.98% - ( 0.11%) ) ( -0.90% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.01 =
( -4.30% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.00% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.02 =
( -1.26% - ( 0.11%) ) ( 0.89% - ( 1.62%) ) x 0.01
1 AA = 2,255564
2 AB = 0.6281606
3 AC = 0.423317
4 AD = 0.770865
5 AE = 0.230903
6 BB = 4.165136
7 BC = 1.316255
8 BD = 0.932328
9 BE = 1.5076862
10 CC = 3.426453
11 CD = -2.318503
12 CE = 1.138758
13 DD = 1.93963
14 DE = 0,090633
15 EE = 2.290388
Apabila disusun kedalam matriks varian kovarian, dapat dilihat sebagai berikut ini:
VC =
AA AB AC AD AE
BA BB BC BD BE
CA CB CC CD CE =
DA DB DC DD DE
{ EA EB EC ED EE }
2,255564 0.6281606 0.423317 0.770865 0.230903
0.6281606 4.165136 1.316255 0.932328 1.5076862
0.423317 1.316255 3.426453 −2.318503 1.138758
0.770865 0.932328 −2.318503 1.93963 0,090633
{ 0.230903 1.5076862 1.138758 0,090633 2.290388 }
BAB V
KOEFISIEN KORELASI
Covarian AB ∑{(RBi−ŘA)(RBi−ŘB)Pi}
Koefisien Korelasi = =
σA σB σA σB
Dan data tentang proporsi investasi sekuritas diatas. Selanjutnya, dapat dihitung besarnya
risiko portofolio, menggunakan rumus dibawah ini.
Saham A
0,3 (0,07%) (0,02%) 0,1 (0,07%) (0,01%) 0,2 (0,07%) (0,01%) 0,3 (0,07%) (0,02%) 0,1 (0,07%) (0,01%)
(Xa)
Saham B
0,1 0,11% 0,01% 0,2 0,11% 0,02% 0,3 0,11% 0,03% 0,1 0,11% 0,01% 0,3 0,11% 0,03%
(Xb)
Saham C
0,2 0,24% 0,05% 0,3 0,24% 0,07% 0,1 0,24% 0,02% 0,3 0,24% 0,07% 0,1 0,24% 0,02%
(Xc)
Saham
0,3 0,09% 0,03% 0,1 0,09% 0,01% 0,3 0,09% 0,03% 0,1 0,09% 0,01% 0,2 0,09% 0,02%
D (Xd)
Saham E
0,1 1,62% 0,16% 0,3 1,62% 0,49% 0,1 1,62% 0,16% 0,2 1,62% 0,32% 0,3 1,62% 0,49%
(Xe)
Kesimpulan :
Berdasar perhitungan yang telah dilakukan, diperoleh koefisien variasi terbesar adalah
saham C (𝐶𝑉𝑐 ) sebesar 31.62003145 dan yang terkecil saham A (𝐶𝑉𝐴 ) sebesar -21.18913853.
ini artinya bahwa bila koefisien variasi suau saham lebih besar dibandingkan dengan
koefisien variasi saham lainnya, maka saham tersebut berisiko. Sebaliknya bila lebih kecil,
maka saham tersebut kurang berisiko.
Setelah mempertimbangkan prospek serta risikonya, memang benar risiko yang diperoleh
tinggi tapi jika dilihat berdasarkan koefisien variasi saham C adalah saham yang berisiko
paling besar dengan hanya melakukan proposi investasi hanya 10% itu mengurangi risiko
pada kerugian dalam investasi. Sebaliknya dalam portofolio kelima proposi investasi pada
saham B dan E masing-masing sebesar 30%, ika dilihat berdasarkan koefisien variasi saham
B dan E memiliki saham yang cenderung tidak berisiko tinggi, sehingga kemungkinan untuk
mendapatkan keuntungna lebih besar dalam berinvestasi.