Silakan mengerjakan latihan soal dengan menggunakan masing-masing example ya

pengerjaan. Lengkapi tugas Anda dengan grafik jika pada contoh juga tersedia
berdasarkan informasi yang Anda dapatkan dari perhitungan dan grafik (j

Grafik dapat diletakkan di bawah tabel. Harap tidak meletakkan hasil kerja Anda di
masing sheet untuk memudahkan pencermatan.

Terima kasih.
asing-masing example yang terdapat di buku sebagai contoh
ada contoh juga tersedia grafik. Sajikan simpulan Anda
perhitungan dan grafik (jika ada) pada setiap sheet.

kkan hasil kerja Anda di samping kotak merah pada masing-

mudahkan pencermatan.

a kasih.
 Monthly moving average Weekly moving average
Month Actual shed sales 3-month moving average Week Actual shed sales
1 11 1 8
2 14 2 11
3 15 3 10
4 17 13.33 4 13
5 21 15.33 5 15
6 24 17.67 6 17
7 25 20.67 7 16
8 29 23.33 8 14
9 27 26.00 9 12
10 16 27.00 10 13
11 14 24.00 11 11
12 12 19.00 12 12
13 14
14 15
15 13
16 11
17 12
18 11
19 9
20 12
eekly moving average
4-week moving average

10.50
12.25
13.75
15.25
When you are done with
15.50
this task, move to the next
14.75 sheet.
13.75
12.50
12.00
12.50
13.00
13.50
13.25
12.75
11.75
10.75
Weights applied Period Monthly moving average
3 Last month Month Actual shed sales 3-month moving average
2 Two months ago 1 11
1 Three months ago 2 14
6 Sum of weights 3 15
4 17 14.00
5 21 15.83
6 24 18.67
7 25 21.83
8 29 24.00
9 27 26.83
10 16 27.33
11 14 21.83
12 12 16.83

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
 Weights applied Period Weekly moving average
4 Last week Week Actual shed sales 4-week moving average
3 Two weeks ago 1 8
2 Three weeks ago 2 11
1 Four weeks ago 3 10
10 Sum of weights 4 13
5 15 11.20
6 17 13.00
7 16 14.90
8 14 15.80
9 12 15.30
10 13 13.90
11 11 13.20
12 12 12.10
13 14 11.90
14 15 12.70
15 13 13.70
16 11 13.70
17 12 12.70
18 11 12.20
19 9 11.50
20 12 10.40

8 9 10 11 12

18

16

14

12

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
8

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
When you are done with
this task, move to the
next sheet.
USING MAD

Actual tonnage
Quarter Forecast with a=.10 Forecast with a=0.45 Quarter
unloaded
0.1 1 220 216 216 1
0.1 2 215 216.40 217.80 2
0.1 3 198 216.26 216.54 3
0.1 4 204 214.43 208.20 4
0.1 5 214 213.39 206.31 5
0.1 6 226 213.45 209.77 6
0.1 7 230 214.71 217.07 7
0.1 8 247 216.24 222.89 8
0.1 9 225 219.31 233.74 9
0.45 Sum of absolute deviations
0.45 MAD
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.45
 Actual tonnage Absolute deviation Absolute deviation
Forecast with a=.10 Forecast with a=.45
unloaded for a=0.10 for a=0.45
220 216 4.00 216 4.00
215 216.40 1.40 217.80 2.80
198 216.26 18.26 216.54 18.54
204 214.43 10.43 208.20 4.20
214 213.39 0.61 206.31 7.69
226 213.45 12.55 209.77 16.23
230 214.71 15.29 217.07 12.93
247 216.24 30.76 222.89 24.11
225 219.31 5.69 233.74 8.74
Sum of absolute deviations 99.00 99.24
MAD 11.00 11.03
When you are done with
this task, move to the
next sheet.
USING MSE

Quarter Actual tonnage Forecast with a=.10 (Error)2

unloaded
1 220 216 16.00
2 215 216.40 1.96
3 198 216.26 333.43
When you are done wi
4 204 214.43 108.87
this task, move to the
5 214 213.39 0.37 next sheet.
6 226 213.45 157.46
7 230 214.71 233.89
8 247 216.24 946.44
9 225 219.31 32.35
sum of errors squared 1830.78
MSE 203.42
When you are done with
this task, move to the
next sheet.
 USING MAPE

Quarter Actual tonnage Forecast with a=.10 Absolute percent error 100 [(Error)/Actual)]
absolute unloaded
4.00 1 220 216 1.82%
1.40 2 215 216.40 0.65%
18.26 3 198 216.26 9.22%
10.43 4 204 214.43 5.11%
0.61 5 214 213.39 0.28%
12.55 6 226 213.45 5.55%
15.29 7 230 214.71 6.65%
30.76 8 247 216.24 12.46%
5.69 9 225 219.31 2.53%
Sum of % error 44.28%
MAPE 4.92%
When you are done with
this task, move to the
next sheet.
 alpha beta
Actual Smoothed forecast Smoothed trend, Forecast including
Month
demand average, Ft Tt trend, FITt

1 12 11 2 13.00 0.2 0.4

2 17 12.80 1.92 14.72 0.2 0.4
3 20 15.18 2.10 17.28 0.2 0.4
4 19 17.82 2.32 20.14 0.2 0.4
5 24 19.91 2.23 22.14 0.2 0.4
6 21 22.51 2.38 24.89 0.2 0.4
7 31 24.11 2.07 26.18 0.2 0.4
8 28 27.14 2.45 29.59 0.2 0.4
9 36 29.28 2.32 31.60 0.2 0.4
10 ? 32.48 2.68 35.16 0.2 0.4

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
When you are done with
this task, move to the
next sheet.