BAB IV

PENGOLAHAN DATA

4.1 Pengumpulan Data

Berikut ini adalah Data Permintaan Angle Vise
4.1.1 Data Historis Angle Vise (AV)
Berikut data permintaan 48 periode pada pratikum ini.
Tabel 4.1 Data Permintaan 48 Periode
Permintaan Permintaan
Periode (Unit) Periode (Unit)
AV AV
1 254 25 300
2 263 26 270
3 275 27 295
4 252 28 290
5 286 29 251
6 297 30 280
7 276 31 250
8 295 32 281
9 272 33 259
10 281 34 295
11 283 35 283
12 265 36 285
13 288 37 260
14 298 38 263
15 253 39 292
16 272 40 245
17 252 41 253
18 296 42 290
19 259 43 273
20 272 44 292
21 285 45 246
22 283 46 278
23 247 47 265
24 250 48 272
(Sumber: Data given 2017)

11
4.1.2 Grafik Permintaan 48 Periode
Berikut grafik permintaan 48 periode pada pratikum ini

Gambar 4.1 Grafik permintaan 48 periode

4.2 Pengolahan Data
Berikut hasil pengolahan data pada praktikum ini.
4.2.1 Peramalan Permintaan
Berikut ini adalah 4 Metode pada peramalan
4.2.1.1 Perhitungan Peramalan Metode Regresi Linier
Berikut hasil perhitungan metode linier
Tabel 4.2 Data Peramalan Perhitungan Metode Regresi Linier
No periode permintaan t*dt t^ B A Peramalan
1 1 254 254 1 -0.088 275.5399 275.4515
2 2 263 526 4 -0.088 275.5399 275.3632
3 3 275 825 9 -0.088 275.5399 275.2748
4 4 252 1008 16 -0.088 275.5399 275.1864
5 5 286 1430 25 -0.088 275.5399 275.0981
6 6 297 1782 36 -0.088 275.5399 275.0097
7 7 276 1932 49 -0.088 275.5399 274.9214
8 8 295 2360 64 -0.088 275.5399 274.833
9 9 272 2448 81 -0.088 275.5399 274.7446
10 10 281 2810 100 -0.088 275.5399 274.6563
11 11 283 3113 121 -0.088 275.5399 274.5679
12 12 265 3180 144 -0.088 275.5399 274.4795
13 13 288 3744 169 -0.088 275.5399 274.3912
14 14 298 4172 196 -0.088 275.5399 274.3028
15 15 253 3795 225 -0.088 275.5399 274.2144
16 16 272 4352 256 -0.088 275.5399 274.1261
17 17 252 4284 289 -0.088 275.5399 274.0377
18 18 296 5328 324 -0.088 275.5399 273.9494

12
 Tabel 4.2 Data Peramalan Perhitungan Metode Regresi Linier (Lanjutan)
No periode permintaan t*dt t^ B A Peramalan
19 19 259 4921 361 -0.088 275.5399 273.861
20 20 272 5440 400 -0.088 275.5399 273.7726
21 21 285 5985 441 -0.088 275.5399 273.6843
22 22 283 6226 484 -0.088 275.5399 273.5959
23 23 247 5681 529 -0.088 275.5399 273.5075
24 24 250 6000 576 -0.088 275.5399 273.4192
25 25 300 7500 625 -0.088 275.5399 273.3308
26 26 270 7020 676 -0.088 275.5399 273.2425
27 27 295 7965 729 -0.088 275.5399 273.1541
28 28 290 8120 784 -0.088 275.5399 273.0657
29 29 251 7279 841 -0.088 275.5399 272.9774
30 30 280 8400 900 -0.088 275.5399 272.889
31 31 250 7750 961 -0.088 275.5399 272.8006
32 32 281 8992 1024 -0.088 275.5399 272.7123
33 33 259 8547 1089 -0.088 275.5399 272.6239
34 34 295 10030 1156 -0.088 275.5399 272.5356
35 35 283 9905 1225 -0.088 275.5399 272.4472
36 36 285 10260 1296 -0.088 275.5399 272.3588
37 37 260 9620 1369 -0.088 275.5399 272.2705
38 38 263 9994 1444 -0.088 275.5399 272.1821
39 39 292 11388 1521 -0.088 275.5399 272.0937
40 40 245 9800 1600 -0.088 275.5399 272.0054
41 41 253 10373 1681 -0.088 275.5399 271.917
42 42 290 12180 1764 -0.088 275.5399 271.8286
43 43 273 11739 1849 -0.088 275.5399 271.7403
44 44 292 12848 1936 -0.088 275.5399 271.6519
45 45 246 11070 2025 -0.088 275.5399 271.5636
46 46 278 12788 2116 -0.088 275.5399 271.4752
47 47 265 12455 2209 -0.088 275.5399 271.3868
48 48 272 13056 2304 -0.088 275.5399 271.2985
  1176 13122 320675 38024     13122
(Sumber: Pengolahan Data 2017)
y’ = a + bt

b=

a=

13
 Gambar 4.2 Grafik Metode Linier

4.2.1.2 Perhitungan PeramalanMetode Kuadratis

Berikut hasil perhitungan Metode kuadratis
Tabel 4.3 Data Peramalan Perhitungan Metode Kuadratis
Periode Permintan
No (t) (Dt) t² t³ t⁴ t²y Yt y'

1 1 254 1 1 1 254 254 265.285

2 2 263 4 8 16 1052 526 265.603
3 3 275 9 27 81 2475 825 265.902
4 4 252 16 64 256 4032 1008 266.184
5 5 286 25 125 625 7150 1430 266.449
6 6 297 36 216 1296 10692 1782 266.696
7 7 276 49 343 2401 13524 1932 266.925
8 8 295 64 512 4096 18880 2360 267.136
9 9 272 81 729 6561 22032 2448 267.330
10 10 281 100 1000 10000 28100 2810 267.507
11 11 283 121 1331 14641 34243 3113 267.665
12 12 265 144 1728 20736 38160 3180 267.806
13 13 288 169 2197 28561 48672 3744 267.930
14 14 298 196 2744 38416 58408 4172 268.035
15 15 253 225 3375 50625 56925 3795 268.123
16 16 272 256 4096 65536 69632 4352 268.194
17 17 252 289 4913 83521 72828 4284 268.247
18 18 296 324 5832 104976 95904 5328 268.282
19 19 259 361 6859 130321 93499 4921 268.299
20 20 272 400 8000 160000 108800 5440 268.299
Tabel 4.3 Data Peramalan Perhitungan Metode Kuadratis (Lanjutan)

14
 Periode Permintan
No (t) (Dt) t² t³ t⁴ t²y Yt y'

21 21 285 441 9261 194481 125685 5985 268.281

22 22 283 484 10648 234256 136972 6226 268.246
23 23 247 529 12167 279841 130663 5681 268.193
24 24 250 576 13824 331776 144000 6000 268.122
25 25 300 625 15625 390625 187500 7500 268.034
26 26 270 676 17576 456976 182520 7020 267.928
27 27 295 729 19683 531441 215055 7965 267.804
28 28 290 784 21952 614656 227360 8120 267.663
29 29 251 841 24389 707281 211091 7279 267.504
30 30 280 900 27000 810000 252000 8400 267.327
31 31 250 961 29791 923521 240250 7750 267.133
32 32 281 1024 32768 1048576 287744 8992 266.921
33 33 259 1089 35937 1185921 282051 8547 266.692
34 34 295 1156 39304 1336336 341020 10030 266.445
35 35 283 1225 42875 1500625 346675 9905 266.180
36 36 285 1296 46656 1679616 369360 10260 265.897
37 37 260 1369 50653 1874161 355940 9620 265.597
38 38 263 1444 54872 2085136 379772 9994 265.280
39 39 292 1521 59319 2313441 444132 11388 264.944
40 40 245 1600 64000 2560000 392000 9800 264.591
41 41 253 1681 68921 2825761 425293 10373 264.221
42 42 290 1764 74088 3111696 511560 12180 263.832
43 43 273 1849 79507 3418801 504777 11739 263.426
44 44 292 1936 85184 3748096 565312 12848 263.003
45 45 246 2025 91125 4100625 498150 11070 262.562
46 46 278 2116 97336 4477456 588248 12788 262.103
47 47 265 2209 103823 4879681 585385 12455 261.626
48 48 272 2304 110592 5308416 626688 13056 261.132
  1176 13122 38024 1382976 53651864 10342465 320675 12787
(Sumber: Pengolahan Data 2017)

15
 Gambar 4.3 Grafik Metode Kuadratis
𝑦 ′ = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝑡 + 𝑐𝑡 2
2
𝛽 = (σ 𝑡) − 𝑛 σ 𝑡 2 𝜃 = σ 𝑡 2 σ 𝑡 − 𝑛 σ 𝑡𝑦
2
𝛾 = (σ 𝑡 2 ) − 𝑛 σ 𝑡 4 𝛿 = σ 𝑡 ∑𝑡2 − 𝑛 ∑𝑡 ∑𝑦𝑡
σ 𝑦−𝑏 σ 𝑡
𝑎= 𝑎 = σ 𝑡 σ 𝑡2 − 𝑛 σ 𝑡3
𝑛

𝛾. 𝛿 − 𝜃. 𝑎 𝜃 − 𝑏𝛼
𝑏= 𝑐=
𝛾. 𝛽 − 𝑎2 𝛾

ß= , maka nilai -442176

γ= , maka nilai -1129464896

θ= , maka nilai Ө = 2512608

α= , maka nilai

δ= , maka nilai δ =39072

a= , maka nilai a = 264,9500463

16
b= , maka nilai b = 0.343875663

c= , maka nilai c = -0.00882

17
4.2.1.3 Perhitungan Peramalan Metode Moving Average
Berikut ini hasil dari Metode Moving Average
Tabel 4.4 Data Peramalan Perhitungan Metode Moving Average
Permintaa St-1 xt+xt...+x(t-
No Periode n n+1/n Permalan
1 1 254    
2 2 263    
3 3 275    
4 4 252 792 264.000
5 5 286 790 263.333
6 6 297 813 271.000
7 7 276 835 278.333
8 8 295 859 286.333
9 9 272 868 289.333
10 10 281 843 281.000
11 11 283 848 282.667
12 12 265 836 278.667
13 13 288 829 276.333
14 14 298 836 278.667
15 15 253 851 283.667
16 16 272 839 279.667
17 17 252 823 274.333
18 18 296 777 259.000
19 19 259 820 273.333
20 20 272 807 269.000
21 21 285 827 275.667
22 22 283 816 272.000
23 23 247 840 280.000
24 24 250 815 271.667
25 25 300 780 260.000
26 26 270 797 265.667
27 27 295 820 273.333
28 28 290 865 288.333
29 29 251 855 285.000
30 30 280 836 278.667
31 31 250 821 273.667
32 32 281 781 260.333
33 33 259 811 270.333
34 34 295 790 263.333
35 35 283 835 278.333
36 36 285 837 279.000
37 37 260 863 287.667
38 38 263 828 276.000
39 39 292 808 269.333

18
 Tabel 4.4 Data Peramalan Perhitungan Metode Moving Average (Lanjutan)
Permintaa
No Periode n St-1 xt+xt...+x(t-n+1/n Permalan
40 40 245 815 271.667
41 41 253 800 266.667
42 42 290 790 263.333
43 43 273 788 262.667
44 44 292 816 272.000
45 45 246 855 285.000
46 46 278 811 270.333
47 47 265 816 272.000
48 48 272 789 263.000
12323.667
       
(Sumber: Pengolahan Data 2017)

MA = St-1 xt+xt...+x(t-n+1/n)
MA = (254+263+275+)(792 :3)

Gambar 4. 4 Grafik Metode Moving Average

19
 4.2.1.4 Perhitungan Peramalan Eksponensial
Berikut ini hasil dari Metode Eksponensial.
Tabel 4.5 Data Peramalan Perhitungan Metode Eksponensial
No Periode(t) Permintaan(Dt) t² ln y b a t*lny y'
1 1 254 1 5.537 5.537 275.00
2 2 263 4 5.572 11.144 274.91
3 3 275 9 5.617 16.850 274.81
4 4 252 16 5.529 22.118 274.72
5 5 286 25 5.656 28.280 274.63
6 6 297 36 5.694 34.162 274.54
7 7 276 49 5.620 39.343 274.45
8 8 295 64 5.687 45.496 274.36
9 9 272 81 5.606 50.452 274.27
10 10 281 100 5.638 56.384 274.18
11 11 283 121 5.645 62.100 274.09
12 12 265 144 5.580 66.957 274.00
13 13 288 169 5.663 73.618 273.91
14 14 298 196 5.697 79.759 273.82
15 15 253 225 5.533 83.001 273.73
16 16 272 256 5.606 89.693 273.64
17 17 252 289 5.529 94.000 273.55
18 18 296 324 5.690 102.426 273.46
19 19 259 361 5.557 105.580 273.37
20 20 272 400 5.606 112.116 273.28
-0.00033 275.087
21 21 285 441 5.652 118.702 273.19
22 22 283 484 5.645 124.200 273.10
23 23 247 529 5.509 126.716 273.01
24 24 250 576 5.521 132.515 272.92
25 25 300 625 5.704 142.595 272.83
26 26 270 676 5.598 145.559 272.74
27 27 295 729 5.687 153.548 272.65
28 28 290 784 5.670 158.757 272.56
29 29 251 841 5.525 160.238 272.47
30 30 280 900 5.635 169.044 272.38
31 31 250 961 5.521 171.165 272.29
32 32 281 1024 5.638 180.427 272.20
33 33 259 1089 5.557 183.375 272.11
34 34 295 1156 5.687 193.357 272.02
35 35 283 1225 5.645 197.591 271.93
36 36 285 1296 5.652 203.490 271.84
37 37 260 1369 5.561 205.745 271.75
38 38 263 1444 5.572 211.742 271.66
39 39 292 1521 5.677 221.393 271.57
40 40 245 1600 5.501 220.050 271.48

Tabel 4.5 Perhitungan Data Permalan Metode Ekponensial (Lanjutan)

20
No Periode(t) Permintaan(Dt) t² ln y b a t*lny y'
41 41 253 1681 5.533 226.869 271.39
42 42 290 1764 5.670 238.135 271.30
43 43 273 1849 5.609 241.207 271.21
44 44 292 1936 5.677 -0.00033 275.087
249.777 271.12
45 45 246 2025 5.505 247.740 271.03
46 46 278 2116 5.628 258.871 270.94
47 47 265 2209 5.580 262.247 270.85
48 48 272 2304 5.606 269.078 270.77
1176 13122 38024 269.232 6593.151 13098.026
(Sumber: Pengolahan Data 2017)

y’=a.ebt

= -0,00033

= 269,24
a=eks(∑lny)

Gambar 4.5 Grafik Metode Eksponensial

21
4.3 Perhitungan Error Peramalan
Berikut hasil perhitungan error peramalan pada pratikum ini.
4.3.1 Perhitungan Metode SSE
Sum of Square Error ( SSE )

SSE =

4.3.1.2 Data Permalan SSE Metode Regresi Linear

Berikut data SSE metode Regresi Linear pada pratikum ini.
Tabel 4.6 Tabel Data Permalan SSE Metode Regresi Linear
No Periode Permintaan(y) Peramalan(y') y-y' (y-y')²
1 1 254 275.452 -21.452 460.168
2 2 263 275.363 -12.363 152.848
3 3 275 275.275 -0.275 0.076
4 4 252 275.186 -23.186 537.611
5 5 286 275.098 10.902 118.852
6 6 297 275.010 21.990 483.573
7 7 276 274.921 1.079 1.163
8 8 295 274.833 20.167 406.708
9 9 272 274.745 -2.745 7.533
10 10 281 274.656 6.344 40.243
11 11 283 274.568 8.432 71.100
12 12 265 274.480 -9.480 89.862
13 13 288 274.391 13.609 185.200
14 14 298 274.303 23.697 561.557
15 15 253 274.214 -21.214 450.053
16 16 272 274.126 -2.126 4.520
17 17 252 274.038 -22.038 485.661
18 18 296 273.949 22.051 486.231
19 19 259 273.861 -14.861 220.849
20 20 272 273.773 -1.773 3.142
21 21 285 273.684 11.316 128.046
22 22 283 273.596 9.404 88.437
23 23 247 273.508 -26.508 702.650
24 24 250 273.419 -23.419 548.458
25 25 300 273.331 26.669 711.245
26 26 270 273.242 -3.242 10.514
27 27 295 273.154 21.846 477.244
28 28 290 273.066 16.934 286.770
29 29 251 272.977 -21.977 483.005
30 30 280 272.889 7.111 50.566

22
No Periode Permintaan(y) Peramalan(y') y-y' (y-y')²
31 31 250 272.801 -22.801 519.869
32 32 281 272.712 8.288 68.686
33 33 259 272.624 -13.624 185.611
34 34 295 272.536 22.464 504.651
35 35 283 272.447 10.553 111.362
36 36 285 272.359 12.641 159.799
37 37 260 272.270 -12.270 150.564
38 38 263 272.182 -9.182 84.311
39 39 292 272.094 19.906 396.259
40 40 245 272.005 -27.005 729.290
41 41 253 271.917 -18.917 357.853
42 42 290 271.829 18.171 330.198
43 43 273 271.740 1.260 1.587
44 44 292 271.652 20.348 414.044
45 45 246 271.564 -25.564 653.496
46 46 278 271.475 6.525 42.573
47 47 265 271.387 -6.387 40.792
48 48 272 271.298 0.702 0.492
          13005.323
Tabel 4.6 Tabel Data Permalan SSE Metode Regresi Linear (Lanjutan)
(Sumber: Pengolahan Data 2017)

4.3.1.2 Data Permalan SSE Metode Kuadratis

Berikut data SSE metode Regresi Linear pada pratikum ini.

Tabel 4.7 Perhitungan Data Permalan SSE Metode Kuadratis
No Periode Permintaan(y) Peramalan(y') y-y' (y-y')²
1 1 254 265.285 -11.285 127.353
2 2 263 265.603 -2.603 6.773
3 3 275 265.902 9.098 82.768
4 4 252 266.184 -14.184 201.197
5 5 286 266.449 19.551 382.246
6 6 297 266.696 30.304 918.348
7 7 276 266.925 9.075 82.357
8 8 295 267.136 27.864 776.375
9 9 272 267.330 4.670 21.805
10 10 281 267.507 13.493 182.070
11 11 283 267.665 15.335 235.153
12 12 265 267.806 -2.806 7.875
13 13 288 267.930 20.070 402.819
14 14 298 268.035 29.965 897.880
15 15 253 268.123 -15.123 228.718
16 16 272 268.194 3.806 14.487

Tabel 4.7 Perhitungan Data Permalan SSE Metode Kuadratis (Lanjutan)

No Periode Permintaan(y) Peramalan(y') y-y' (y-y')²

23
 17 17 252 268.247 -16.247 263.952
18 18 296 268.282 27.718 768.302
19 19 259 268.299 -9.299 86.476
20 20 272 268.299 3.701 13.697
21 21 285 268.281 16.719 279.515
22 22 283 268.246 14.754 217.685
23 23 247 268.193 -21.193 449.134
24 24 250 268.122 -18.122 328.409
25 25 300 268.034 31.966 1021.845
26 26 270 267.928 2.072 4.294
27 27 295 267.804 27.196 739.620
28 28 290 267.663 22.337 498.953
29 29 251 267.504 -16.504 272.376
30 30 280 267.327 12.673 160.599
31 31 250 267.133 -17.133 293.540
32 32 281 266.921 14.079 198.214
33 33 259 266.692 -7.692 59.162
34 34 295 266.445 28.555 815.416
35 35 283 266.180 16.820 282.922
36 36 285 265.897 19.103 364.913
37 37 260 265.597 -5.597 31.329
38 38 263 265.280 -2.280 5.196
39 39 292 264.944 27.056 732.019
40 40 245 264.591 -19.591 383.813
41 41 253 264.221 -11.221 125.900
42 42 290 263.832 26.168 684.752
43 43 273 263.426 9.574 91.656
44 44 292 263.003 28.997 840.841
45 45 246 262.562 -16.562 274.284
46 46 278 262.103 15.897 252.725
47 47 265 261.626 3.374 11.383
48 48 272 261.132 10.868 118.113
          15239.258
( Sumber: Pengolahan Data 2017)

4.3.1.3 Data PeramalanSSE Metode Moving Average

Berikut data SSE Metode Moving Average pada pratikum ini.
Tabel 4.8 Perhitungan Data Permalan SSE Metode Moving Average

24
 No Periode Permintaan(y) Peramalan(y') y-y' (y-y')²
1 1 254      
2 2 263      
3 3 275      
4 4 252 264.000 -12.000 144.000
5 5 286 263.333 22.667 513.778
6 6 297 271.000 26.000 676.000
7 7 276 278.333 -2.333 5.444
8 8 295 286.333 8.667 75.111
9 9 272 289.333 -17.333 300.444
10 10 281 281.000 0.000 0.000
11 11 283 282.667 0.333 0.111
12 12 265 278.667 -13.667 186.778
13 13 288 276.333 11.667 136.111
14 14 298 278.667 19.333 373.778
15 15 253 283.667 -30.667 940.444
16 16 272 279.667 -7.667 58.778
17 17 252 274.333 -22.333 498.778
18 18 296 259.000 37.000 1369.000
19 19 259 273.333 -14.333 205.444
20 20 272 269.000 3.000 9.000
21 21 285 275.667 9.333 87.111
22 22 283 272.000 11.000 121.000
23 23 247 280.000 -33.000 1089.000
24 24 250 271.667 -21.667 469.444
25 25 300 260.000 40.000 1600.000
26 26 270 265.667 4.333 18.778
27 27 295 273.333 21.667 469.444
28 28 290 288.333 1.667 2.778
29 29 251 285.000 -34.000 1156.000
30 30 280 278.667 1.333 1.778
31 31 250 273.667 -23.667 560.111
32 32 281 260.333 20.667 427.111
33 33 259 270.333 -11.333 128.444
34 34 295 263.333 31.667 1002.778
35 35 283 278.333 4.667 21.778
36 36 285 279.000 6.000 36.000
37 37 260 287.667 -27.667 765.444

Tabel 4.8 Perhitungan Data Permalan SSE Metode Moving Average (Lanjutan)
No Periode Permintaan(y) Peramalan(y') y-y' (y-y')²
38 38 263 276.000 -13.000 169.000
39 39 292 269.333 22.667 513.778
40 40 245 271.667 -26.667 711.111

25
 41 41 253 266.667 -13.667 186.778
42 42 290 263.333 26.667 711.111
43 43 273 262.667 10.333 106.778
44 44 292 272.000 20.000 400.000
45 45 246 285.000 -39.000 1521.000
46 46 278 270.333 7.667 58.778
47 47 265 272.000 -7.000 49.000
48 48 272 263.000 9.000 81.000
          17958.333
( Sumber: Pengolahan Data 2017)

4.3.1.4 Data Permalan SSE Metode Eksponensial

Berikut hasil perhitungan SEE metode Eksponensial pada pratikum ini
Tabel 4.9 Perhitungan Data Peramlan SSE Metode Eksponensial
No Periode Permintaan(y) Peramalan(y') y-y' (y-y')²
1 1 254 274.996 -20.996 440.845
2 2 263 274.906 -11.906 141.743
3 3 275 274.815 0.185 0.034
4 4 252 274.724 -22.724 516.393
5 5 286 274.634 11.366 129.193
6 6 297 274.543 22.457 504.313
7 7 276 274.453 1.547 2.395
8 8 295 274.362 20.638 425.926
9 9 272 274.272 -2.272 5.160
10 10 281 274.181 6.819 46.498
11 11 283 274.091 8.909 79.377
12 12 265 274.000 -9.000 81.004
13 13 288 273.910 14.090 198.532
14 14 298 273.820 24.180 584.696
15 15 253 273.729 -20.729 429.700
16 16 272 273.639 -1.639 2.686
17 17 252 273.549 -21.549 464.345
18 18 296 273.458 22.542 508.122

Tabel 4.9 Perhitungan Data Permalan SSE Metode Eksponensial (Lanjutan)

No Periode Permintaan(y) Peramalan(y') y-y' (y-y')²
19 19 259 273.368 -14.368 206.446
20 20 272 273.278 -1.278 1.633
21 21 285 273.188 11.812 139.525
22 22 283 273.098 9.902 98.053

26
 23 23 247 273.008 -26.008 676.403
24 24 250 272.918 -22.918 525.221
25 25 300 272.828 27.172 738.334
26 26 270 272.738 -2.738 7.495
27 27 295 272.648 22.352 499.623
28 28 290 272.558 17.442 304.230
29 29 251 272.468 -21.468 460.872
30 30 280 272.378 7.622 58.094
31 31 250 272.288 -22.288 496.765
32 32 281 272.198 8.802 77.468
33 33 259 272.109 -13.109 171.836
34 34 295 272.019 22.981 528.132
35 35 283 271.929 11.071 122.564
36 36 285 271.839 13.161 173.200
37 37 260 271.750 -11.750 138.058
38 38 263 271.660 -8.660 74.999
39 39 292 271.571 20.429 417.361
40 40 245 271.481 -26.481 701.244
41 41 253 271.391 -18.391 338.246
42 42 290 271.302 18.698 349.617
43 43 273 271.212 1.788 3.195
44 44 292 271.123 20.877 435.849
45 45 246 271.034 -25.034 626.680
46 46 278 270.944 7.056 49.784
47 47 265 270.855 -5.855 34.279
48 48 272 270.765 1.235 1.524
          13,018
(Sumber: Pengolahan Data 2017)

4.3.2 Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)

27
4.3.2.1 Data Permalan MAPE Metode Regresi Linear
Berikut hasil perhitungan data MAPE metode Regresi Linear pada
pratikum ini
Tabel 4.10 Perhitungan Data Permalan MAPE Metode Regresi Linear
((y- |((y-
No Periode Permintaan(y) Peramalan(y') y')/y)*100% y')/y)*100%| MAPE
1 1 254 275.452 -8.445 8.445
2 2 263 275.363 -4.701 4.701
3 3 275 275.275 -0.100 0.100
4 4 252 275.186 -9.201 9.201
5 5 286 275.098 3.812 3.812
6 6 297 275.010 7.404 7.404
7 7 276 274.921 0.391 0.391
8 8 295 274.833 6.836 6.836
9 9 272 274.745 -1.009 1.009
10 10 281 274.656 2.258 2.258
11 11 283 274.568 2.980 2.980
12 12 265 274.480 -3.577 3.577
13 13 288 274.391 4.725 4.725
14 14 298 274.303 7.952 7.952
5.276
15 15 253 274.214 -8.385 8.745
16 16 272 274.126 -0.782 0.782
17 17 252 274.038 -8.745 8.745
18 18 296 273.949 7.450 7.450
19 19 259 273.861 -5.738 5.738
20 20 272 273.773 -0.652 0.625
21 21 285 273.684 3.970 3.970
22 22 283 273.596 3.323 3.323
23 23 247 273.508 -10.732 10.732
24 24 250 273.419 -9.368 9.368
25 25 300 273.331 8.890 8.890
26 26 270 273.242 -1.201 1.201
27 27 295 273.154 7.405 7.405
28 28 290 273.066 5.839 5.839

Tabel 4.10 Perhitungan Data Peramalan MAPE Metode Regresi Linear (Lanjutan)
No Periode Permintaan(y) Peramalan(y') ((y-y')/y)*100% |((y-y')/y)*100%| MAPE
29 29 251 272.977 -8.756 8.756
30 30 280 272.889 2.540 2.540 5.276
31 31 250 272.801 -9.120 9.120

28
 32 32 281 272.712 2.949 2.949
33 33 259 272.624 -5.260 5.260
34 34 295 272.536 7.615 7.615
35 35 283 272.447 3.729 3.729
36 36 285 272.359 4.435 4.435
37 37 260 272.270 -4.719 4.719
38 38 263 272.182 -3.491 3.491
39 39 292 272.094 6.817 6.817
40 40 245 272.005 -11.023 11.023
41 41 253 271.917 -7.477 7.477
42 42 290 271.829 6.266 6.266
43 43 273 271.740 0.461 0.461
44 44 292 271.652 6.969 6.969
45 45 246 271.564 -10.392 10.392
46 46 278 271.475 2.347 2.347
47 47 265 271.387 -2.410 2.410
48 48 272 271.298 0.258 0.258
          253.239  
(Sumber: Pengolahan Data 2017)

4.3.2.2 Data Permalan MAPE Metode Kuadratis

Berikut hasil perhitungan MAPE Metode Kuadratis pada pratikum ini
Tabel 4.11 Perhitungan Data Permalan MAPE Metode Kuadratis
No Periode Permintaan(y) Peramalan(y') ((y-y')/y)*100% |((y-y')/y)*100%| MAPE
1 1 254 265.285 -4.443 4.443
2 2 263 265.603 -0.990 0.990
3 3 275 265.902 3.308 3.308
4 4 252 266.184 -5.629 5.629
5 5 286 266.449 6.836 6.836
6 6 297 266.696 10.203 10.203
5.640
7 7 276 266.925 3.288 3.288
8 8 295 267.136 9.445 9.445
9 9 272 267.330 1.717 1.717
10 10 281 267.507 4.802 4.802
11 11 283 267.665 5.419 5.419
12 12 265 267.806 -1.059 1.059

Tabel 4.11 Perhitungan Data Permalan MAPE Metode Kuadratis (Lanjutan)

No Periode Permintaan(y) Peramalan(y') ((y-y')/y)*100% |((y-y')/y)*100%| MAPE
13 13 288 267.930 6.969 6.969
14 14 298 268.035 10.055 10.055
5.640
15 15 253 268.123 -5.978 5.978
16 16 272 268.194 1.399 1.399

29
 17 17 252 268.247 -6.447 6.447
18 18 296 268.282 9.364 9.364
19 19 259 268.299 -3.590 3.590
20 20 272 268.299 1.361 1.361
21 21 285 268.281 5.866 5.866
22 22 283 268.246 5.213 5.213
23 23 247 268.193 -8.580 8.580
24 24 250 268.122 -7.249 7.249
25 25 300 268.034 10.655 10.655
26 26 270 267.928 0.768 0.768
27 27 295 267.804 9.219 9.219
28 28 290 267.663 7.703 7.703
29 29 251 267.504 -6.575 6.575
30 30 280 267.327 4.526 4.526
31 31 250 267.133 -6.853 6.853
32 32 281 266.921 5.010 5.010
33 33 259 266.692 -2.970 2.970
34 34 295 266.445 9.680 9.680
35 35 283 266.180 5.944 5.944
36 36 285 265.897 6.703 6.703
37 37 260 265.597 -2.153 2.153
38 38 263 265.280 -0.867 0.867
39 39 292 264.944 9.266 9.266
40 40 245 264.591 -7.996 7.996
41 41 253 264.221 -4.435 4.435
42 42 290 263.832 9.023 9.023
43 43 273 263.426 3.507 3.507
44 44 292 263.003 9.931 9.931
45 45 246 262.562 -6.732 6.732
46 46 278 262.103 5.718 5.718
47 47 265 261.626 1.273 1.273
48 48 272 261.132 3.996 3.996
          270.713  
(Sumber: Pengolahan Data 2017)

4.3.2.3 Data Peramalan MAPE Metode Moving Average

Berikut hasil perhitungan MAPE metode Moving Average
Tabel 4.12. Perhitungan Peramalan Data MAPE Metode Moving Average
No Periode Permintaan(y) Peramalan(y') ((y-y')/y)*100% |((y-y')/y)*100%| MAPE
1 1 254
5.625
2 2 263

30
 3 3 275
4 4 252 264.000 -4.762 4.762
5 5 286 263.333 7.925 7.925
6 6 297 271.000 8.754 8.754
7 7 276 278.333 -0.845 0.845
8 8 295 286.333 2.938 2.938
9 9 272 289.333 -6.373 6.373
10 10 281 281.000 0.000 0.000
11 11 283 282.667 0.118 0.118
12 12 265 278.667 -5.157 5.157
13 13 288 276.333 4.051 4.051
14 14 298 278.667 6.488 6.488
15 15 253 283.667 -12.121 12.121
16 16 272 279.667 -2.819 2.819
17 17 252 274.333 -8.862 -8.862
18 18 296 259.000 12.500 12.500
19 19 259 273.333 -5.534 5.534
20 20 272 269.000 1.103 1.103
21 21 285 275.667 3.275 3.275
22 22 283 272.000 3.887 3.887
23 23 247 280.000 -13.360 13.360
24 24 250 271.667 -8.667 8.667
25 25 300 260.000 13.333 13.333
26 26 270 265.667 1.605 1.605
27 27 295 273.333 7.345 7.345
28 28 290 288.333 0.575 0.575
29 29 251 285.000 -13.546 13.546
30 30 280 278.667 0.476 0.476
31 31 250 273.667 -9.467 9.467
32 32 281 260.333 7.355 7.355
33 33 259 270.333 -4.376 4.376
34 34 295 263.333 10.734 10.734
35 35 283 278.333 1.649 1.649
36 36 285 279.000 2.105 2.105

Tabel 4.12 Perhitungan Data Peramalan MAPE Metode MovingAverage (Lanjutan)

No Periode Permintaan(y) Peramalan(y') ((y-y')/y)*100% |((y-y')/y)*100%| MAPE
37 37 260 287.667 -10.641 10.641
38 38 263 276.000 -4.943 4.943
39 39 292 269.333 7.763 7.763
40 40 245 271.667 -10.884 10.884
5.625
41 41 253 266.667 -5.402 5.402
42 42 290 263.333 9.195 9.195
43 43 273 262.667 3.785 3.785
44 44 292 272.000 6.849 6.849

31
 45 45 246 285.000 -15.854 15.854
46 46 278 270.333 2.758 2.758
47 47 265 272.000 -2.642 2.642
48 48 272 263.000 3.309 3.309
276.130
(Sumber: Pengolahan Data 2017)

4.3.2.4 Data Peramalan MAPE Metode Eksponensial

Berikut ini adalah hasil Metode Eksponensial.
Tabel 4.13 Perhitungan Data Permalan MAPE Metode Eksponensial
No Periode Permintaan(y) Peramalan(y') ((y-y')/y)*100% |((y-y')/y)*100%| MAPE
1 1 254 274.996 -8.266 8.266
2 2 263 274.906 -4.527 4.527
3 3 275 274.815 0.067 0.067
4 4 252 274.724 -9.018 9.018
5 5 286 274.634 3.974 3.974
6 6 297 274.543 7.561 7.561
7 7 276 274.453 0.561 0.561
8 8 295 274.362 6.996 6.996
9 9 272 274.272 -0.835 0.835 5.269
10 10 281 274.181 2.427 2.427
11 11 283 274.091 3.148 3.148
12 12 265 274.000 -3.396 3.396
13 13 288 273.910 4.892 4.892
14 14 298 273.820 8.114 8.114
15 15 253 273.729 -8.193 8.193
16 16 272 273.639 -0.603 0.603
17 17 252 273.549 -8.551 8.551

Tabel 4.13 Perhitungan Data Permalan MAPE Metode Eksponensial (Lanjutan)

No Periode Permintaan(y) Peramalan(y') ((y-y')/y)*100% |((y-y')/y)*100%| MAPE
18 18 296 273.458 7.615 7.615
19 19 259 273.368 -5.548 5.548
20 20 272 273.278 -0.470 0.470
21 21 285 273.188 4.145 4.145
5.269
22 22 283 273.098 3.499 3.499
23 23 247 273.008 -10.529 10.529
24 24 250 272.918 -9.167 9.167
25 25 300 272.828 9.057 9.057

32
 26 26 270 272.738 -1.014 1.014
27 27 295 272.648 7.577 7.577
28 28 290 272.558 6.015 6.015
29 29 251 272.468 -8.553 8.553
30 30 280 272.378 2.722 2.722
31 31 250 272.288 -8.915 8.915
32 32 281 272.198 3.132 3.132
33 33 259 272.109 -5.061 5.061
34 34 295 272.019 7.790 7.790
35 35 283 271.929 3.912 3.912
36 36 285 271.839 4.618 4.618
37 37 260 271.750 -4.519 4.519
38 38 263 271.660 -3.293 3.239
39 39 292 271.571 6.996 6.996
40 40 245 271.481 -10.809 10.809
41 41 253 271.391 -7.269 7.269
42 42 290 271.302 6.448 6.448
43 43 273 271.212 0.655 0.655
44 44 292 271.123 7.150 7.150
45 45 246 271.034 -10.176 10.176
46 46 278 270.944 2.538 2.538
47 47 265 270.855 -2.209 2.209
48 48 272 270.765 0.454 0.454
252.930
(Sumber: Pengolahan Data 2017)

4.4 Verifikasi Peramalan

Berikut hasil verifikasi peramalan dalam pratikum ini
Tabel 4.14 Tabel Rekapitulasi Perhitungan Error Peramalan
Metode Linier Kuadratis Moving Average Eksponensial
SSE 13005.323 15239.258 18414.889 13017.692
MAPE 5.276 5.640 5.625 5.269
(Sumber:Pengolahan Data 2017)
Setelah melakukan metode peramalan langkah selanjutnya melakukan
verifikasi peramalan . Dari 4 metode yang telah dilakukan didapatkan nilai error
terkecil yaitu dengan menggunakan metode Regresi Linier.

33
 Tabel 4.15 DataVertifikasi Peramalan
No Periode dt dt' MR |MR| MR_ UCL LCL
1 1 254 275.452 -21.452 11.285
2 2 263 275.363 -12.363 2.603
3 3 275 275.275 -0.275 -0.275
4 4 252 275.186 -23.186 14.184
5 5 286 275.098 10.902 10.902
6 6 297 275.010 21.990 21.990
7 7 276 274.921 1.079 1.079
8 8 295 274.833 20.167 20.167 11.347 30.183 -30.183
   
9 9 272 274.745 -2.745 -2.745
   
10 10 281 274.656 6.344 6.344    
   
11 11 283 274.568 8.432 8.432
   
12 12 265 274.480 -9.480 2.806    
13 13 288 274.391 13.609 13.609    
   
14 14 298 274.303 23.697 23.697    
15 15 253 274.214 -21.214 15.123    
   
16 16 272 274.126 -2.126 -2.126    
17 17 252 274.038 -22.038 16.247    
   
18 18 296 273.949 22.051 22.051    
19 19 259 273.861 -14.861 9.299    
   
20 20 272 273.773 -1.773 -1.773    
21 21 285 273.684 11.316 11.316    
   
22 22 283 273.596 9.404 9.404    
23 23 247 273.508 -26.508 21.193    
   
24 24 250 273.419 -23.419 18.122
   
25 25 300 273.331 26.669 26.669

Tabel 4.15 DataVertifikasi Peramalan (Lanjutan)

No Periode dt dt' MR |MR|
MR_ UCL LCL
26 26 270 273.242 -3.242 -3.242
11.347  30.183  -30.183
27 27 295 273.154 21.846 21.846  
     
28 28 290 273.066 16.934 16.934
     
29 29 251 272.977 -21.977 16.504      
     
30 30 280 272.889 7.111 7.111
     
31 31 250 272.801 -22.801 17.133      
     
32 32 281 272.712 8.288 8.288
     
33 33 259 272.624 -13.624 7.692      
     
34 34 295 272.536 22.464 22.464
     
35 35 283 272.447 10.553 10.553      
     
36 36 285 272.359 12.641 12.641
     
37 37 260 272.270 -12.270 5.597      

34
38 38 263 272.182 -9.182 2.280
39 39 292 272.094 19.906 19.906
40 40 245 272.005 -27.005 19.591
41 41 253 271.917 -18.917 11.221
42 42 290 271.829 18.171 18.171
43 43 273 271.740 1.260 1.260
44 44 292 271.652 20.348 20.348
45 45 246 271.564 -25.564 16.562
46 46 278 271.475 6.525 6.525
47 47 265 271.387 -6.387 -6.387
48 48 272 271.298 0.702 0.702
  1176 13122.000 13122.000 0.000 533.303
(Sumber: Pengolah Data 2017)

MR = (Ft-1 – At-1)-(Ft-1 –At-1)

MR_= ∑MR/n-1
BKA = 2,66 X MR_
BKB = -2,66 X MR_

35