Ekspektasi terhadap

Pemerintahan Baru

A. Tony Prasetiantono, Ph.D.
Kepala Pusat Studi Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Publik
Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta

Indonesian and Global Economic Update 2014
Jakarta, 13 Mei 2014

Agenda

Overview Perekonomian Global
Indikator Ekonomi Makro Terkini
Pelajaran dari Krisis 1998
Pelajaran dari Mini Crisis 2008
Likuiditas Ketat 2014
The Washington Consensus
Adakah Jokowi Effect dalam Pilpres 9 Juli 2014?
Ekspektasi terhadap Pemerintahan Baru

Overview
Pertumbuhan ekonomi Q1-2014 di bawah ekspektasi, hanya 5,21%.
Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia 2014 diperkirakan maksimal 5,5%.
Tahun pemilu diharapkan memberi harapan baru, sebagaimana yang terjadi di
India. Pertumbuhan ekonomi India diperkirakan kembali di atas 5% tahun ini.
Efek Jokowi sempat terjadi pada 14 Maret 2014, yang menyebabkan rupiah
menguat ke level Rp 11.200-an per USD.
Namun kemudian dinetralisasi oleh efek Janet Yellen pada 18 Maret 2014.
Rupiah pun kembali terkoreksi ke Rp 11.600 per USD.
Saat ini rupiah bergerak antara Rp 11.500-11.600 per USD.
Subsidi energi masih terlalu besar, Rp 300 triliun.
Likuiditas ketat belum memungkinkan penurunan BI rate 7,5%.
Industri perbankan mengalami stagnasi dan perlambatan.
Jika pilpres 9 Juli 2014 sukses, maka akan terjadi capital inflows, sehingga
likuiditas bisa melonggar, BI rate bisa diturunkan bertahap. Apa lagi AS belum
tentu berani menaikkan suku bunganya.
Pertumbuhan ekonomi masih bisa mencapai 5,5% tahun ini.
* Bloomberg.com
Rupiah Has Been Depreciated Since May 2013
May 9 2014
Inflasi 7.25% (Apr 2014) Vs BI rate 7.5%
*BI May 2014, basis IHK
Agt13
8.79
7,25
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
IHK
Inflation is now Relatively Manageable
*BI May 2014, basis IHK(year on year)
2.71
-0.07
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
IHK
Jul13
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2010 2011 2012 2013
Indonesias Private Foreign Debt Indonesia (USD million)
*BI, May 2014
2013 Q4(Des) : 140.512
Trade Deficit, as Well as Current Account Deficit
*BPS, May 2014(USD Billion)
101
114
137
117
158
204
190
183
44
61
74
129
97
136
177
192
187
43
39.73 39.63
7.82
19.68
22.12
26.06
-1.66
-4.08
1.07
-10
40
90
140
190
240
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Export Import Surplus(Deficit)
sd Mar 14
Indonesian Stock Exchange Composite Index
* Bloomberg Mar 2009-2014

ADB Outlook


2013

2014
Developing Asia 6.5 6.7
East Asia 6.6 6.6
China 7.7 7.5
South Asia 5.0 5.1
India 4.4 5.4
Southeast Asia 4.9 5.3
Indonesia 5.7 6.0
Malaysia 4.3 5.0
Philippines 7.0 6.1
Thailand 3.8 4.9
Vietnam 5.2 5.5
Asian Economic Growth, 2013-2014
Projected by IMF, January 2014
Ben S Bernanke: Quantitative Easing, and then Tapering Off
Paul Krugman
US economy still needs
stimulus, both fiscal and
monetary, in assuring
economic growth and
creating job
opportunities.
Janet Yellen:
Tapering Off
Continues Until
October 2014?
The US Three
Musketeers in the
Bill Clinton
administration:
Alan Greenspan,
Robert Rubin,
and Larry Summers
Why Alan
Greenspan?
Some analysts have blamed
Greenspan for two reasons:
The US economy enjoyed
low interest rates for a long
time, and lack opf readiness
to face a shock, which is
higher interest rate since
July 2005.
However, he did nothing
when Securities Exchange
Commission (SEC) had no
sufficient regulation on
hedge funds,
derivatives, etc.

Greenspans
bubbles
William A. Fleckenstein,
columnist of MSN Money
(2008), Greenspan failed to
manage The Fed (11 August
1987 to 31 January 2006).
Greenspan could be
considered as Mr. Bubble,
as also mentioned by New
York Times.
His policy have brought the
US economy into a deep
crisis.
Blanchard: Euro Zone Crisis Will Take Longer than Expected
USD Appreciated Against Asian Currencies (%) 2013-2014

* Bloomberg-> Feb 2013 compare to Feb 2014
-1.50%
0.08%
20.07%
13.61%
9.98%
-1.41%
6.04%
9.78%
2.37%
9.35%
2.31%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
CNY(Yuan) HKD($) IDR(Rp) INR(Rpe) JPY(Yen) KRW(Won) MYR(Ringgit) PHP(Peso) SGD($) THB(Bath) TWD($)
124.64
92.67
105.56
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
J
a
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-
1
1
F
e
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-
1
1
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1
2
F
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A
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-
1
2
M
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-
1
2
J
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-
1
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J
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1
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A
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N
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-
1
2
D
e
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-
1
2
J
a
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-
1
3
F
e
b
-
1
3
M
a
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-
1
3
A
p
r
-
1
3
M
a
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-
1
3
J
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-
1
3
J
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1
3
A
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1
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1
4
F
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-
1
4
M
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-
1
4
A
p
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-
1
4
Foreign Reserves
Jul 13
Apr 14
Foreign Reserves: USD 105.56 billion

* BI, Apr 2014 (USD Billion)
Aug 11
Total Assets in Banking Industry, 2005-2013 (Rp billion)
*BI (Statistik Perbankan Indonesia) Feb 2014
1,469,827
1,693,850
1,986,501
2,310,557
2,534,106
3,008,853
3,652,832
4,262,587
4,817,751
4,954,467
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Nov 13 Des-13
Jumlah Aset
Deposits and Loans in Banking Industry, 2005-2013 (Rp billion)
*BI (Statistik Perbankan Indonesia) Feb 2014
2,725,674
3,319,842
3,225,198
3,663,968
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Nov 13 Des-13
Kredit Dana Pihak Ketiga
NPL, NIM and ROA in Banking Industry, 2005-2012
*BI (Statistik Perbankan Indonesia) Feb 2014
7.56
6.07
4.07
3.20
3.31
2.56
2.17
1.87
5.63
5.80
5.70
5.66
5.56
5.73
5.91
5.49
2.55
2.64
2.78
2.33
2.60
2.86
3.03
3.11
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
NPL NIM ROA
NPL, NIM and ROA in Banking Industry, 2013
*BI (Statistik Perbankan Indonesia) Feb 2014
2.01 2.03
1.97 1.96 1.95
1.88 1.87
1.94
1.86
1.91
1.88
1.77
5.53
5.34
5.41 5.42 5.41 5.43
5.46 5.46 5.48
5.50
4.88 4.89
3.16
2.92
3.03
2.96
2.99
3.02
3.00
3.03
3.06
3.09 3.09 3.08
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Agust Sep Okt Nov Des
NPL NIM ROA
LDR Ratio in Banking Industry 2006-2013

*BI(Statistik Perbankan Indonesia) Feb 2014
61.56
66.32
74.58
72.88
75.21
78.77
83.58
89.97
89.70
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Nov 13 Des-13
LDR
Foreign Direct Investment
*Semester I 2013
Domestic Investment
*Semester I 2013
Employment in Indonesia:
Formal Vs Informal Sector
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2002 2003 2004 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13
Informal Formal
Unemployment in Indonesia
94.95
102.05
104.49
107.41
111.28
115.08
116.44
118.17
10.85
9.43
9.26
8.59
8.12
7.66
7.2
7.15
10.26%
8.46%
8.14%
7.41%
6.80%
6.24%
5.82%
5.70%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2005 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb 14
Pekerja Pengangguran Terbuka TPT (Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka)
* BPS, May 2014 (Million people)
Indonesias Fiscal Policy
Volume of government budget 2014 is Rp 1.842 trillion, where government revenue
is Rp 1.667 trillion, budget deficit Rp 175 triliun (1,69% to GDP).
Budget for social security (JKN) Rp 19.93 trillion for 121 million population (50% of
total population).
As comparison, budget for housing is only Rp 4.7 trillion.
Budget for education is 20% of the government budget (compulsory).
Budget for infrastructure is Rp 196 trillion, far below the 5% of the Indonesias GDP
about Rp 500 trilion.
Indonesia should learn from the Greeces case where welfare state programs could
damage the government budget. They experienced budget deficit 17% of GDP.
Tax revenue 2013 was only below Rp 1,000 trillion.
Indonesia should meet tax ratio about 17%-20% as achieved by some neighboring
countries.
Government Debt to GDP Ratio: 22-23%
*Mei 2013
PDB ASEAN, 2009-2012 (USD billion)
*World Bank (Data Myanmar tidak tersedia)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Singapore Brunei
Darussalam
Cambodia Timor-Leste Laos Vietnam Philippines
2009 2010 2011 2012
GDP Top 20 Countries, 2009-2012 (USD billion)
*World Bank
16,244.60
8,227.10
3,428.13
1,841.71
878.04
300
2,300
4,300
6,300
8,300
10,300
12,300
14,300
16,300
2009 2010 2011 2012
no.16
no.10
Foreign Reserves in ASEAN (USD billion)
*World Bank
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Singapore Brunei
Darussalam
Myanmar Cambodia Timor-Leste Laos Vietnam Philippines
2009 2010 2011 2012




















Infrastructure Development: Better Late than Never

International Student Mobility
*UNESCO, Global Education Digest 2012
International Student Mobility ASEAN
*UNESCO, Global Education Digest 2012
International Student Mobility ASEAN
*UNESCO, Global Education Digest 2012
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Malaysia Vietnam Indonesia Thailand Singapore Philipina Myanmar Cambodia Timor Leste Brunei
Base on Country of Origin in 2010 Base on Host Countries in 2010
International Student Mobility
*UNESCO
Bank Dagang Negara (BDN), 1994-1998
* Source: Bank Mandiris Merger Plan, 22 June 1999.

Description

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998
Total assets 20,893 22,516 22,505 35,954 32,051
Earning assets 20,090 19,817 22,671 25,707 46,172
Total loans 14,274 14,985 16,870 25,684 39,216
Total deposits 13,671 14,657 16,198 23,973 45,635
Total equity 1,226 1,352 1,559 1,759 (28,495)
Net income 149 161 218 237 (30,829)
Return on assets (ROA) 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 n.a.
Return on equity (ROE) 18.6 17.5 19.6 14.3 n.a.
Loan to deposit ratio (LDR) 78.4 75.9 80.6 89.4 75.9
Net interest margin (NIM) 4.3 2.6 2.3 1.9 (15.6)
Bank Bumi Daya (BBD), 1994-1998
* Source: Bank Mandiris Merger Plan, 22 June 1999.

Description

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998
Total assets 20,109 21,803 24,110 33,705 24,639
Earning assets 19,505 21,024 21,896 30,605 42,348
Total loans 16,051 17,489 17,086 25,604 36,244
Total deposits 12,388 14,222 17,403 22,784 43,365
Total equity 1,090 1,146 1,560 1,698 (28,956)
Net income 49.3 52.2 65.8 162.3 (30,572)
Return on assets (ROA) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 n.a.
Return on equity (ROE) 6.5 7.7 6.4 13.9 n.a.
Loan to deposit ratio (LDR) 95.9 93.4 81.0 87.6 71.0
Net interest margin (NIM) 2.4 2.8 1.7 0.2 (15.2)
Bank Exim, 1994-1998
* Source: Bank Mandiris Merger Plan, 22 June 1999.

Description

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998
Total assets 17,044 21,543 25,071 32,609 31,709
Earning assets 15,515 19,054 22,406 30,023 45,439
Total loans 8,785 10,860 14,315 21,859 34,201
Total deposits 11,735 16,163 18,291 29,003 45,329
Total equity 1,123 1,261 1,500 (2,739) (27,045)
Net income 83 138 196 (4,116) (44,549)
Return on assets (ROA) 1.1 1.0 1.2 n.a. n.a.
Return on equity (ROE) 16.2 17.0 19.4 n.a. n.a.
Loan to deposit ratio (LDR) 61.1 59.9 65.1 64.1 65.7
Net interest margin (NIM) 3.7 2.9 2.4 1.8 (18.4)
Bank Pembangunan Indonesia (Bapindo), 1994-1998
* Source: Bank Mandiris Merger Plan, 22 June 1999.

Description

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998
Total assets 13,268 12,570 14,498 16,479 13,335
Earning assets 12,938 13,132 14,828 17,448 22,896
Total loans 11,226 12,218 13,030 15,658 20,312
Total deposits 4,163 5,304 6,746 7,756 16,606
Total equity 1,013 136 600 713 (9,058)
Net income 6 (1,572) 464 104 (11,269)
Return on assets (ROA) 0.1 (12.5) 3.7 1.2 n.a.
Return on equity (ROE) 1.8 (1,156) 88.8 27.9 n.a.
Loan to deposit ratio (LDR) 98.7 120 113.1 116.9 94.7
Net interest margin (NIM) 0.5 0.4 0.03 (0.9) (13.4)
Bonus session
Neoliberalism
Page 43
Neo-liberalism
World Bank (IBRD), International
Monetary Fund (the IMF) (1980s).
Restriction of governments role to the
creation of markets.
Otherwise, development proceeds best by
promoting markets internally and
internationally.

Washington Consensus (1)
The Washington Consensus is well known as the
generic formula taken by the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) and the World Bank to rescue developing
countries from crisis, starting with Latin America in the
1980s.
In a broader sense, the Washington Consensus, which
was introduced by the US Government, IMF and the
World Bank, has basically 10 elements, which together
comprise the three pillars: fiscal austerity, market
liberalisation and privatization of the SOEs (John
Williamson 1994: 267).
Washington Consensus (2)
Fiscal discipline: the government should
have a budget surplus of several per cent
of gross domestic product (GDP) or a
deficit of no more than 2 per cent of GDP.
Public expenditure priorities: favour
efforts to improve income distribution.
Tax reform: broaden the base.
Washington Consensus (3)
Financial liberalization: ensure positive real
rates and abolish preferential interest rates
for favoured borrowers.
Exchange rates: set at a level to ensure
competitiveness and credibility.
Trade liberalization: replace quantitative
restrictions and progressively reduce them.
Washington Consensus (4)
Foreign direct investment: allow foreign and
domestic firms to compete on equal footing.
Privatization: state-owned enterprises (SOEs)
should be privatized.
Deregulation: abolish barriers to entry or
restrictions on competition.
Property rights: make them secure for both
the formal and informal sectors.
GDP per person(PPP) vs Global Population forecast
* The Economist
Major Economic Indicators of Indonesian Economy

Indicator
Total GDP Rp 9,200 trillion (USD 8000 billion)
Population 245 million
Per capita GDP USD 3,600/person/year
Economic growth
4.5% (2009), 6.1% (2010), 6.5% (2011)
6.23% (2012), 5,8%-5.9% (projected, 2013)
Inflation rate
2.78% (2009), 6.96% (2010)
3.79% (2011), 4.3% (2012), 8,38% (2013) 8.22% yoy Feb 204
Benchmark rate (BI rate) 7.50% (May 2014)
International reserve USD 106.5 billion (April 2014)
Balance of trade (X-M)
+USD 22.6 billion (2009); +USD 22.12 billion (2010)
+USD 23.6 billion (2011); deficit USD 1.67 billion (2012)
deficit USD 4 billion (2013)
Government budget 2014 Rp 1,860 trillion (USD 170 billion)
Indonesian Economy, 2013- 2014

Indicators


2013

2014
Economic Growth (%) 5.7-5.8 Max 5.5
Inflation rate (%) 8.38 6.5
BI rate (%) 7.5 7.0-7.5
Exchange rate
(Rp per USD)
Rp 10,700-11,300 Rp 11,000-11,500
Loan Growth (%) 18-19 17
Projected by A. Tony Prasetiantono, May 2014.

Kesimpulan
Indonesia sedang mengalami tekanan likuditas yang tinggi. Penyebabnya adalah
pasar cukup khawatir dengan tekanan neraca transaksi berjalan. Melambatnya
perekonomian China (7,4%) memperburuk situasi ini.
Defisit transaksi berjalan menyebabkan cadangan devisa tertekan, sehingga kurs
rupiah tertekan. Akibatnya, pemilik dana tidak mau menempatkan dananya di
bank dengan suku bunga setara BI rate. Akibatnya, likuiditas bank tertekan, LDR
naik, biaya funding meningkat.
Bank Dunia memproyeksikan pertumbuhan ekonomi 5,3%, sementara IMF 5,4%
pada 2014.
Meski inflasi mulai melanda, BI rate sulit diturunkan, karena likuditas ketat.
Pilpres diharapkan sesuai ekspektasi, sehingga membangun confidence.
Presiden dan kabinet baru hendaknya fokus meningkatkan daya saing, melalui:
(1) pembangunan infrastruktur, (2) memperbaiki birokrasi dan memberantas
korupsi, (3) memperbaiki kualitas SDM melalui pengiriman anak-anak muda
bersekolah ke luar negeri secara agresif.

A. Tony Prasetiantono.
Thank you