Analisis Resiko

Analisis Resiko
Ekonomi Manajerial//Manajemen D
DISUSUN OLEH:
Gustary Victory Tandepadang (4519012128)
Anggita Sri Rahayu
Asri Wahyudi
Koamang Adi Astawa
Rezkianto Pakasi
Andre Dwi Anugrah P
Elza Timbowo
Ekonomi Manajerial: Analisis Resiko

01 Contents Here
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Agenda 04 Contents Here
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Analisis Resiko
Dalam proses pengambilan keputusan manajerial, manajer biasanya tidak mengetahui hasil yang
pasti dari setiap pilihan tindakan yang mungkin diambil .
Contoh : Pengambilan investasi jangka panjang, tergantung pada kondisi ekonomi di masa depan,
tingkat persaingan di masa depan, cita rasa konsumen, kemajuan teknologi, iklim politik, dan banyak
faktor lain yang tidak bisa diramalkan secara sempurna oleh perusahaan.
Risiko dan Ketidakpastian Dalam Pembuatan Keputusan Manajerial

Keputusan-keputusan manajerial akan berhadapan dengan empat kemungkinan yaitu kepastian,
risiko, ketidakpastian dan kondisi alamiah. Keempat kemungkinan tersebut dapat diuraikan sebagai
berikut:
01 Kepastian
Kepastian adalah keadaan dimana hanya ada satu hasil yang mungkin terjadi untuk suatu
keputusan dan hasil ini diketahui secara tepat.
Contoh: Bila perusahaan berinvestasi Treasury bill hanya akan memberikan satu macam hasil
dan jumlah tersebut diketahui secara pasti. Sebaliknya jika terdapat kemungkinan hasil lebih dari
satu maka pembuat keputusan menghadapi risiko atau ketidakpastian
Analisis Resiko
Risiko adalah keadaan dimana terdapat lebih dari satu hasil yang mungkin terjadi dari suatu
2 keputusan dan probabilitas dari tiap hasil tersebut diketahui, atau bisa diestimasikan.
Contoh: Bila perusahaan berinvestasi dalam saham atau peluncuran produk baru bisa
membawa kita ke salah satu hasil yang mungkin terjadi, dan probabilitas dari setiap hasil
yang mungkin itu bisa diestimasikan dari pengalaman masa lalu atau melalui riset pasar.
Ketidakpastian adalah situasi dimana terdapat lebih dari satu hasil yang mungkin dari suatu
keputusan dan probabilitas dari kemunculan masing-masing hasil tidak diketahui dan tidak pula
dapat ditafsirkan.
Contoh: Pengeboran pada ladang minyak yang masih belum terbukti hasilnya memberikan
ketidakpastian bagi para investor jika mereka tidak mengetahui kemungkinan output dari minyak
atau probabilitas outputnya.
3
Kondisi alamiah adalah keadaan masa depan yang tidak dapat dikendalikan oleh manajer
4 yang akan memiliki dampak yang signifikan atas tingkat kesuksesan atau kegagalan dari
suatu strategi.
Contoh: Perekonomin dapat mengalami pertumbuhan pesat, normal dan resesi muncul
dimasa depan dan kondisi tersebut akan mempengaruhi hasil dari strategi yang dipilih oleh
manajer. .
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Agenda 04 Contents Here

Risiko dan Ketidakpastian Dalam Pembuatan Keputusan Manajerial

Simple PowerPoint Simple PowerPoint

201 201 202

Simple PowerPoint1 Contents Here Contents Here

CONTENTS HERE CONTENTS HERE CONTENTS HERE

Max Jones Max Jones Tony Wilson Anastasia

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