prospek di Indonesia
SARS = severe acute respiratory syndrome (sindrom pernafasan akut yang parah); CoV = virus corona; COVID-19 = penyakit virus corona yang muncul pada tahun
2019. Image credit: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) / Alissa Eckert, MS; Dan Higgins, MAMS.
PERKEMBANGAN PANDEMI COVID-19 Dunia dan
Nasional
Status : 18 Maret 2021
121.803.968 1.443.853
Kasus Terkonfirmasi Kasus Terkonfirmasi
20.913.846 131.753
Kasus Aktif Kasus Aktif
98.198.310 1.272.958
Sembuh Sembuh
2.691.812 39.142
Meninggal Meninggal
Sumber: coronavirus.thebaselab.com per tanggal 18 Maret 2021, jam 16.00 WIB Sumber: Covid19.go.id per tanggal 18 Maret 2021, jam 16.00 WIB
Epidemiolo
gi penyakit
infeksi
Rt
Isolasi kasus dan karantina kontak,
kerja dari rumah, penutupan Laju kontak
sekolah, pembatasan keramaian,
kontrol perbatasan (border control) Rata-rata laju kontak antara
individu rentan dengan individu
terinfeksi
LOGIKA:
menghentikan pandemi berarti menurunkan
angka reproduksi (Rt) menjadi < 1.
R t = R0 ( 1-v)
o R t = angka reproduksi pasca vaksinasi
o R0 = angka reproduksi dasar
o v = proporsi populasi yang diimunisasi secara
efektif
Berapa % populasi yang perlu divaksinasi untuk
mencapai ‘herd immunity’?
Pollard. Nature Imm 2020. A guide to vaccinology: from basic principles to new developments
Tujuan vaksinasi COVID-19
Komponen virus SARS CoV-2
Vaccine development
Sharma Omna O. A Review of the Progress and Challenges of Developing a Vaccine for COVID-19. Frontiers in Immunology. 2020;11.
Vaccine development-pandemic
Sharma Omna O. A Review of the Progress and Challenges of Developing a Vaccine for COVID-19. Frontiers in Immunology. 2020;11.
Moderna, NIAID
BioNTech, Pfizer,
Fosun Pharma
Sinovac
Biotech
Jeyanathan, et al-Nat Rev Imm 2020, Immunological considerations for COVID-19 vaccine strategies
Kondisi vaksin di dunia saat ini
https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
Landscape of candidate vaccines in clinical development
(n=14)
Landscape of candidate vaccines in clinical development
(phase 4)
Tahapan vaksinasi di Indonesia
https://www.unicef.org/indonesia/press-releases/indonesia-receives-first-shipment-11-million-covid-19-vaccines-doses-through-covax
Estimasi pemenuhan
vaksin di Indonesia 50%
Nuning Nuraini, Kamal K. Sukandar, Hadi Susanto, Panji F Hadisoemarto, Agus Hasan-COVID-19 modeling for WHO
Prediksi dampak vaksinasi COVID-19 di Indonesia
Nuning Nuraini, Kamal K. Sukandar, Hadi Susanto, Panji F Hadisoemarto, Agus Hasan-COVID-19 modeling for WHO
Data perkembangan vaksinasi di Jawa Barat
Ahmad Fuady, Nuning Nuraini, Kamal Khairudin Sukandar, Bony Wiem Lestari
Prediksi dampak vaksinasi COVID-19 di Jawa Barat
Ahmad Fuady, Nuning Nuraini, Kamal Khairudin Sukandar, Bony Wiem Lestari
Tantangan program vaksinasi COVID-19 di Indonesia
1 The quality or length of protection the vaccine will provide is still unknown. How effectively vaccine will stop viral
transmission is yet unknown.
There is a chance that unwarranted-side effects might be observed when vaccine is available for public use post
2 marketing surveillance is needed
3 Rapid large-scale manufacturing of vaccines remains a challenge uncertainty to meet the demand
Political pressure to rush the vaccine development and approval ineffective vaccine being released for public use
4 public trust
5 Mutations of the virus/ new variant vaccines having limited effectiveness against it
A hierarchical Bayesian implementation of a novel inverted generalized logistic growth curve for predicting diagnosed COVID-19 cases in 68 countries,
ISATRANS 2020.
Belajar dari China
Nov 2019
China mengalami epidemi SARS CoV-2. Butuh respon-time
50 hari utk pengendalian situasi gawat darurat kesehatan
masyarakat, dibandingkan epidemi seblmnya yaitu 158 hr.
Kemampuan melakukan kultur virus dan WGS sangat
bermanfaat untuk pengembangan kit diagnostik COVID-19.
2010-2014
China mendirikan 408 lab, 554 RS sentinel, dan melatih
2500 tenaga kesehatan sehingga menjadi WHO
Collaborating Center
•
2004
Pemerintah China investasi 850 juta USD utk membangun
sistem pengendalian dan pencegahan penyakit
• Mendirikan pusat nasional influenzae kerja sama dengan
Amerika
2002-2003
China pertama kali mengalami pandemi SARS di Bouey. AJPH 2020. Strengthening
Guangdong pd tgl 16 Nov 2002 China’s Public Health Response
System: From SARS to COVID-19
Bumi pertiwi, Indonesia,
membutuhkan banyak ahli
biologi molekuler, ahli
bioinformatics, ahli big data,
ahli epidemiologi, ahli vaksin,
ahli uji klinik, ahli logistik dan
supply chain management.
https://nasional.kompas.com/read/2020/12/04/14574711/data-covid-19-yang-tak-akurat-dinilai-sulit-jadi-pertimbangan-penentuan
Belajar dari New Zealand
Terima Kasih