1
Pengambilan Keputusan, Sistem,
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 2
Copyright 2001, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
Aspek Keputusan Bisnis yang
Umum
Keputusan mungkin diambil oleh suatu kelompok
Anggota kelompok dapat mengalami bias
Pemikiran secara berkelompok
Mungkin terdapat beberapa tujuan yang saling bertentangan
Banyak pilihan
Hasilnya dapat muncul di masa depan
Sikap-sikap dalam menghadapi resiko
Memerlukan informasi
Mengumpulkan informasi perlu waktu dan biaya
Bisa jadi terlalu banyak informasi
Skenario “Bagaimana Jika”
Eksperimen Trial-and-error pada sistem yang sebenarnya dapat
mengakibatkan kerugian
Eksperimen dengan sistem yang sebenarnya – lakukan hanya sekali
Perubahan pada lingkungan dapat berlangsung terus-menerus
Tekanan waktu
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 3
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Bagaimana keputusan diambil???
DSS
Sistem
Pendukung
Pengambilan Keputusan
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 4
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Pengambilan Keputusan
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 5
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Pengambilan Keputusan vs
Pemecahan Masalah
4 Fase Pengambilan Keputusan
menurut Simon
1. Intelijen
2. Merancang
3. Pemilihan
4. Mengimplementasikan
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 6
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Sistem
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 7
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Struktur Suatu Sistem
Tiga bagian utama sistem (Gambar 2.1)
Input
Proses
Output
Sistem
Dilingkupi oleh suatu lingkungan
Seringkali mencakup umpan balik
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Sistem
Lingkungan
Input Output
Proses
Umpan balik
Garis batas
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Input adalah elemen yang memasuki sistem
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Bagaimana Mengidentifikasi
Lingkungan?
Dua pertanyaan (Churchman, 1975)
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Elemen Lingkungan Dapat
Berupa..
Sosial
Politis
Hukum
Fisik
Ekonomi
Seringkali termasuk sistem lain
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Garis Batas Memisahkan
Sistem dari Lingkungannya
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Sistem Terbuka dan Tertutup
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Sistem Informasi
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Efektivitas dan Efisiensi
Sistem
2 kelas besar untuk mengukur kinerja
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Derajat Abstraksi Model
(dari terkecil ke terbesar)
Model Ikonik (Skala) : replika fisik dari suatu sistem
Model Analog berkelakuan seperti sistem yang
sebenarnya tetapi dengan tampilan tidak seperti
sistem tersebut (representasi simbolik)
Model Matematis (Kuantitatif) menggunakan relasi
matematika untuk merepresentasikan kompleksitas
sistem.
Ini adalah cara yang kebanyakan digunakan dalam
analisis DSS
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Keuntungan Menggunakan Model
1. Penghematan waktu
2. Mudah memanipulasi model
3. Biaya pembuatan rendah
4. Biaya operasional rendah (terutama bila terdapat
kesalahan)
5. Dapat memodelkan resiko dan ketidakpastian
6. Dapat memodelkan sistem yang besar dan sangat
kompleks dengan kemungkinan pemecahan yang
tidak terhingga
7. Meningkatkan dan memperkuat pembelajaran,
serta meningkatkan kemampuan berlatih.
Keuntungan dari grafika komputer: lebih banyak
model ikonik dan analog (simulasi visual)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 19
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Proses Permodelan:
Pencermatan Awal
Berapa banyak pesanan untuk grosir Ma-Pa?
Bob dan Jan: Berapa banyak persediaan roti setiap
hari?
Pendekatan solusi
Trial-and-Error (coba-coba)
Simulasi
Optimisasi
Heuristik
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Proses Pengambilan
Keputusan
Proses pengambilan keputusan secara sistematik
(Simon, 1977)
Intelijen
Perancangan
Pemilihan
Implementasi
(Gambar 2.2)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 21
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Fase Intelijen
Mengamati realitas
Mengidentifikasi dan mendefinisikan masalah
Fase Perancangan
Membangun model representatif
Mem-validasi model dan menentukan kriteria evaluasi
Fase Pemilihan
Mencakup usulan pemecahan masalah dari model
Bila layak, lanjutkan ke ..
Fase Implementasi
Pemecahan pada masalah yang sebenarnya
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 22
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Fase Intelijen
Menemukan permasalahan
Mengidentifikasi sasaran dan tujuan organisasional
Menentukan apakah hal-hal tersebut telah terpenuhi
Secara eksplisit mendefinisikan permasalahan
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Klasifikasi Masalah
Masalah Masalah
Tidak Terprogram Terprogram
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Dekomposisi Masalah: Membagi masalah yang
kompleks menjadi submasalah (lebih mudah untuk
dipecahkan) -- Chunking (Salami)
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Fase Perancangan
Membuat, mengembangkan, dan menganalisa
tindakan-tindakan yang memungkinkan
Termasuk
Memahami permasalahan
Menguji kelayakan solusi
Membangun, menguji, dan mem-validasi model
Permodelan
Konseptualisasi permasalahan
Abstraksi pada bentuk kuantitatif dan/atau
kualitatif
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 26
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Model Matematis
Mengidentifikasi variabel
Membuat persamaan yang menjelaskan relasinya
Menyederhanakan melalui asumsi
Menyeimbangkan penyederhanaan model dan
representasi yang akurat dari realitas
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 27
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Topik Permodelan Kuantitatif
Komponen-komponen Model
Struktur Model
Menyeleksi suatu Prinsip Pemilihan
(Kriteria untuk Evaluasi)
Mengembangkan (Membuat) Alternatif
Memperkirakan Keluaran
Mengukur Keluaran
Skenario-skenario
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 28
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Komponen Model
Kuantitatif
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 29
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Hasil dari Pengambilan
Keputusan Ditentukan oleh
Keputusan
Faktor yang tidak dapat dikendalikan
Relasi antar variabel
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Variabel Hasil
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 31
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Variabel Pengambilan
Keputusan
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Variabel atau Parameter yang
Tidak Dapat Dikendalikan
Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi variabel hasil
Tidak dibawah kendali Pengambil Keputusan
Umumnya adalah bagian dari lingkungan
Beberapa diantaranya melingkupi pengambil keputusan
dan disebut dengan pembatas
Contoh - Tabel 2.2
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 33
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Struktur Model Kuantitatif
Model Nilai-Sekarang
P = F / (1+i)n
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 34
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Contoh PL
Model Pemrograman Linier Perhitungan Produksi
Perusahaan MBI
Keputusan: Berapa komputer yang akan dibuat bulan depan?
Ada 2 jenis komputer
Batasan pekerja
Batasan material
Batasan penurunan pasaran
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 35
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Model Pemrograman Linier
Komponen
Variabel pengambilan keputusan
Variabel hasil
Variabel yang tidak dapat dikendalikan
(pembatas)
Solusi
X1 = 333,33
X2 = 200
Keuntungan = $5.066.667
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 36
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Masalah Optimisasi
Pemrograman Linier
Pemrograman Tujuan
Pemrograman Jaringan
Pemrograman Bil. Bulat
Masalah Transportasi
Masalah Penugasan
Pemrograman Nonlinear
Pemrograman Dinamis
Pemrograman Stokastik
Model Investasi
Model Inventaris sederhana
Model Penggantian (anggaran pembiayaan)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 37
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Prinsip Pemilihan
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 38
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Seleksi Prinsip Pemilihan
Normatif
Deskriptif
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 39
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Model Normatif
Proses Optimisasi
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 40
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Asumsi Rasionalitas
Manusia adalah mahluk ekonomi yang memiliki tujuan
untuk memaksimalkan pencapaian sasaran; tentu saja,
pengambil keputusan adalah rasional
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 41
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Sub-optimisasi
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 42
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Model Deskriptif
Menjelaskan sesuatu apa adanya, atau diyakini
memang seperti itu
Sangat berguna dalam DSS untuk mengevaluasi
konsekuensi dari keputusan dan skenarionya
Tidak ada jaminan bahwa solusi tersebut adalah
optimal
Seringkali sebuah solusi akan cukup baik
Simulasi: Teknik permodelan deskriptif
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 43
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Descriptive Models
Information flow
Scenario analysis
Financial planning
Complex inventory decisions
Markov analysis (predictions)
Environmental impact analysis
Simulation
Waiting line (queue) management
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 44
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Satisficing (Good Enough)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 45
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Why Satisfice?
Bounded Rationality (Simon)
Humans have a limited capacity for rational thinking
Generally construct and analyze a simplified model
Behavior to the simplified model may be rational
But, the rational solution to the simplified model may
NOT BE rational in the real-world situation
Rationality is bounded by
limitations on human processing capacities
individual differences
Bounded rationality: why many models are descriptive,
not normative
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 46
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Developing (Generating)
Alternatives
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 47
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Predicting the Outcome of
Each Alternative
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 48
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Decision Making Under
Certainty
Assumes complete knowledge available
(deterministic environment)
Example: U.S. Treasury bill investment
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 49
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Decision Making Under Risk
(Risk Analysis)
Probabilistic or stochastic decision situation
Must consider several possible outcomes for each
alternative, each with a probability
Long-run probabilities of the occurrences of the
given outcomes are assumed known or estimated
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 50
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Risk Analysis
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 51
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Decision Making Under
Uncertainty
Several outcomes possible for each course of action
BUT the decision maker does not know, or cannot
estimate the probability of occurrence
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 52
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Measuring Outcomes
Goal attainment
Maximize profit
Minimize cost
Customer satisfaction level (minimize number of
complaints)
Maximize quality or satisfaction ratings (surveys)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 53
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Scenarios
Useful in
Simulation
What-if analysis
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 54
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Importance of Scenarios in
MSS
Help identify potential opportunities and/or
problem areas
Provide flexibility in planning
Identify leading edges of changes that management
should monitor
Help validate major assumptions used in modeling
Help check the sensitivity of proposed solutions to
changes in scenarios
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 55
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Possible Scenarios
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 56
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The Choice Phase
The CRITICAL act - decision made here!
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 57
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Search Approaches
Analytical Techniques
Algorithms (Optimization)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 58
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Evaluation: Multiple Goals,
Sensitivity Analysis, What-If,
and Goal Seeking
Evaluation (with the search process) leads to a
recommended solution
Multiple goals
Complex systems have multiple goals
Some may conflict
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 59
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Common Methods
Utility theory
Goal programming
Expression of goals as constraints, using linear
programming
Point system
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 60
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Sensitivity Analysis
Change inputs or parameters, look at model results
Automatic
Trial and error
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 61
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Trial and Error
Change input data and re-solve the
problem
Better and better solutions can be
discovered
How to do? Easy in spreadsheets
(Excel)
What-if
Goal seeking
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 62
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What-If Analysis
Figure 2.9 - Spreadsheet example of a what-if query for a
cash flow problem
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 63
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Goal Seeking
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 64
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Goal Seeking
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 65
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The Implementation Phase
There is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful
of success, nor more dangerous to handle, than to initiate a
new order of things
(Machiavelli, 1500s)
*** The Introduction of a Change ***
Important Issues
Resistance to change
Degree of top management support
Users’ roles and involvement in system development
Users’ training
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 66
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How Decisions Are
Supported
Specific MSS technologies relationship to the decision
making process (see Figure 2.10)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 67
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Alternative Decision Making
Models
Paterson decision-making process
Kotter’s process model
Pound’s flow chart of managerial behavior
Kepner-Tregoe rational decision-making approach
Hammond, Kenney, and Raiffa smart choice method
Cougar’s creative problem solving concept and model
Pokras problem-solving methodology
Bazerman’s anatomy of a decision
Harrison’s interdisciplinary approaches
Beach’s naturalistic decision theories
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 68
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Naturalistic Decision Theories
Recognition models
Narrative-based models
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Recognition Models
Policy
Recognition-primed decision model
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 70
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Narrative-based Models
(Descriptive)
Scenario model
Story model
Argument-driven action (ADA) model
Incremental models
Image theory
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 71
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Other Important Decision-
Making Issues
Personality types
Gender
Human cognition
Decision styles
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 72
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Personality (Temperament)
Types
Strong relationship between personality and
decision making
Type helps explain how to best attack a
problem
Type indicates how to relate to other types
important for team building
Influences cognitive style and decision style
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 73
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Temperament
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 74
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Myers-Briggs Dimensions
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 75
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Birkman True Colors Types
Red Green
Yellow Blue
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 76
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Gender
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 77
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Cognition
Cognition: Activities by which an individual resolves
differences between an internalized view of the
environment and what actually exists in that same
environment
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 78
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Cognitive Style
The subjective process through which individuals perceive,
organize, and change information during the decision-making
process
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 79
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Cognitive Style Research
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 80
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Decision Styles
The manner in which decision makers
Think and react to problems
Perceive their
Cognitive response
Values and beliefs
The manner in which managers make decisions (and the way they
interact with other people) describes their decision style
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 81
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Some Decision Styles
Heuristic
Analytic
Autocratic
Democratic
Consultative (with individuals or groups)
Combinations and variations
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 82
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The system
should be flexible and adaptable to different users
have what-if and goal seeking
have graphics
have process flexibility
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 83
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The Decision Makers
Individuals
Groups
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 84
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Individuals
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 85
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Groups
Most major decisions made by groups
Conflicting objectives are common
Variable size
People from different departments
People from different organizations
The group decision-making process can be very complicated
Consider Group Support Systems (GSS)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 86
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Summary
Managerial decision making is the whole process of
management
Problem solving also refers to opportunity's evaluation
A system is a collection of objects such as people, resources,
concepts, and procedures intended to perform an
identifiable function or to serve a goal
DSS deals primarily with open systems
A model is a simplified representation or abstraction of
reality
Models enable fast and inexpensive experimentation with
systems
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 87
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Modeling can employ optimization, heuristic, or simulation
techniques
Decision making involves four major phases: intelligence, design,
choice, and implementation
What-if and goal seeking are the two most common sensitivity
analysis approaches
Computers can support all phases of decision making by automating
many required tasks
Personality (temperament) influences decision making
Gender impacts on decision making are inconclusive
Human cognitive styles may influence human-machine interaction
Human decision styles need to be recognized in designing MSS
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition, 88
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