DAFTAR ISI

Halaman
HALAMAN COVER.......................................................................................... i
LEMBAR PERSETUJUAN.............................................................................. ii
LEMBAR PENGESAHAN................................................................................ iii
KATA PENGANTAR........................................................................................ iv
DAFTAR ISI....................................................................................................... v
DAFTAR GAMBAR.......................................................................................... xviii
DAFTAR TABEL............................................................................................... xx
DAFTAR LAMPIRAN....................................................................................... xxiv
MODUL I

PERAMALAN (FORECASTING)

BAB I

PENDAHULUAN
1.1

Latar Belakang.................................................................... I-1

1.2

Rumusan Masalah............................................................... I-2

1.3

Tujuan dan Manfaat............................................................ I-2

1.3.1 Tujuan....................................................................... I-2
1.3.2 Manfaat..................................................................... I-2

BAB II

1.4

Batasan Masalah................................................................. I-3

1.5

Sistematika Penulisan Laporan.......................................... I-3

LANDASAN TEORI
2.1

Pengertian Forecasting (Peramalan).................................. II-1

2.2

Metode-metode dalam Peramalan...................................... II-2

2.2.1

Metode Qualitative atau Metode Judgumental.... II-7

2.2.2

Metode Quantitative atau Time Series atau

Metode Extrapolative............................................. II-8

DAFTAR GAMBAR

Gambar
MODUL I

Halaman
PERAMALAN (FORECASTING)

2.2

Jenis Pola Data.......................................................................................... II-10

2.3

Kriteria Batas Kendali.............................................................................. II-18

3.1

Grafik Permintaan Terhadap Comfort Taxi............................................. III-2

3.2

Grafik Metode Moving Average Periode I............................................... III-6

3.3

Grafik Metode Moving Average Periode II.............................................. III-9

3.4

Grafik Metode Exponential Smoothing dengan nilai = 0.25................ III-12

3.5

Grafik Metode Exponential Smoothing dengan nilai = 0. 5................. III-15

3.6

Grafik Metode Exponential Smoothing dengan nilai = 0. 75............... III-19

3.7

Grafik Metode Linear Regression............................................................ III-23

3.8

Peta Moving Range................................................................................... III-25

MODUL II

ASSEMBLY

3.1

Peta Proses Operasi Comfort Taxi............................................................ III-4

3.2

Peta Perakitan Comfort Taxi.................................................................... III-7

3.3

Peta Keseragaman Data Dudukan Mesin Bawah+dan Piringan

Roda Gigi Sedang No.1............................................................................ III-9

3.4

Peta Keseragaman Data Perakitan Body Taxi+Head Taxi (2)................ III-11

3.5

Peta Keseragaman Data Perakitan Body Chasis Mobil+Switch

ON/Off....................................................................................................... III-12

3.6

Peta Keseragaman Data Pekerjaan Inspeksi+Baterai.............................. III-14

MODUL III AGGREGATE PLANING

3.1

Grafik Tingkat Produksi Metode Level Strategy.................................... III-11

3.2

Grafik Total Demand dengan Metode Chase Strategy........................... III-16

DAFTAR TABEL

Tabel

Halaman

MODUL I

PERAMALAN (FORECASTING)

3.1

Data Permintaan Pesawat Comfort Taxi.................................................. III-1

3.2

Details and Error Analysis Metode Moving Average

Periode I.................................................................................................... III-5

3.3

Forecasting Results Metode Moving Average Periode I......................... III-6

3.4

Details and Error Analysis Metode Moving Average

Periode II.................................................................................................. III-8

3.5

Forecasting Results Metode Moving Average Periode II........................ III-9

3.6

Details and Error Analysis dengan Nilai = 0. 25................................. III-12

3.7

Forecasting Results dengan Nilai = 0. 25............................................. III-12

3.8

Details and Error Analysis dengan Nilai = 0. 5................................... III-15

3.9

Forecasting Results dengan Nilai = 0. 5............................................... III-15

3.10

Details and Error Analysis dengan Nilai = 0. 75................................. III-18

3.11

Forecasting Results dengan Nilai = 0. 75............................................. III-18

3.12

Tabel Bantu............................................................................................... III-19

3.13

Details and Error Analysis Linear Regression........................................ III-22

3.14

Forecasting Results Linear Regression................................................... III-22

3.15

Data Rekapitulasi Hasil Peramalan.......................................................... III-23

3.16

Data Rekapitulasi Ranking Hasil Peramalan........................................... III-23

3.17

Perhitungan Nilai Moving Range............................................................. III-24

3.18

Verifikasi Metode Peramalan dengan Moving Range............................. III-24

DAFTAR LAMPIRAN

A.1

Lembar Asistensi Modul I........................................................................ A-1

B.1

Lembar Asistensi Modul II....................................................................... B-1

C.1

Lembar Asistensi Modul III..................................................................... C-1

D.1

Lembar Asistensi Modul IV..................................................................... D-1

E.1

Lembar Asistensi Modul V...................................................................... E-1

F.1

Lembar Asistensi Modul VI..................................................................... F-1

G.1

Gambar Komponen Stasiun 1.................................................................. G-1

H.1

Gambar Komponen Stasiun 2.................................................................. H-2

I.4

Gambar Komponen Stasiun 3.................................................................. I-1

J.1

Kanban Permintaan Komponen............................................................... J-1

K.1

Kanban Pengiriman Komponen............................................................... K-1

L.1

Lembar Pengamatan Stasiun 1................................................................. L-1

M.1

Lembar Pengamatan Stasiun 2................................................................. M-2

N.4

Lembar Pengamatan Stasiun 3................................................................. N-3

O.1

Lembar Pengamatan Stasiun 4................................................................. O-4

P.1

Kanban Perintah Produksi........................................................................ P-5