Muthia Kamila
2013080584
06TIDPA
FAKULTAS TEKNIK
TEKNIK INDUSTRI
UNIVERSITAS PAMULANG
2016
KATA PENGANTAR
Segala puji hanya milik Allah SWT. Shalawat dan salam selalu tercurahkan
kepada Rasulullah SAW. Berkat limpahan dan rahmat-Nya penulis mampu
menyelesaikan tugas ini. Tugas ini disusun agar pembaca dapat memperluas ilmu
tentang PPIC (Production Planning and Inventory Control) yang penulis sajikan
berdasarkan pengamatan dari berbagai sumber informasi, referensi, dan buku
panduan. Tugas ini di susun oleh penulis dengan berbagai rintangan. Baik itu yang
datang dari diri penyusun maupun yang datang dari luar. Namun dengan penuh
kesabaran dan terutama pertolongan dari Allah akhirnya tugas ini dapat terselesaikan.
Semoga tugas ini dapat memberikan wawasan yang lebih luas dan menjadi
sumbangan pemikiran kepada pembaca khususnya para mahasiswa Universitas
Pamulang. Penulis sadar bahwa tugas ini masih banyak kekurangan dan jauh dari
sempurna. Untuk itu, penulis meminta masukannya demi perbaikan pembuatan tugastugas yang lainnya di masa yang akan datang dan mengharapkan kritik dan saran dari
para pembaca.
Muthia Kamila
DAFTAR ISI
Kata Pengantar . i
Daftar Isi .. ii
Model Forecasting
I. Rata-rata Bergerak ...
II. Rata-rata bergerak Terbobot ...
III. Pemulusan Eksponensial .........
IV. Analisis garis kecendrungan ....
V. Pemulusan eksponensial dengan
mempertimbangkan kecendrungan ...............................................
VI. Peramalan Dengan Mempertimbangkan Pengaruh Musiman
Dalam Data Permintaan ....
1
3
4
7
9
11
Tugas Kanban
VII.
16
MODEL PERAMALAN
I.
Bulan
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
Indeks
waktu
(t)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Permintaan
Aktual
(A)
334
357
354
414
400
401
354
359
364
339
409
414
???
t
1
2
3
A
334
357
354
July
414
=((354)+(357
)+(334))/3 =
348.33
August
400
375.00
=((354)+(357)+(334)+
(414))/4 = 364.75
401
389.33
381.25
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
354
359
364
339
409
414
405.00
385.00
371.33
359.00
354.00
370.67
387.33
392.25
392.25
378.5
369.5
354
367.75
381.5
Septembe
r
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
FM3
FM4
FM3
Absolute FM3
FM4
Absolute FM4
juli
414
August
400
Septembe
r
401
October
November
348.3
3
375.0
0
[414-348.33]=
65.67
25.00
364.75
389.3
3
11.67
381.25
354
405.0
0
51.00
392.25
359
385.0
0
26.00
392.25
December
364
371.3
3
7.33
378.5
January
10
339
359.0
0
20.00
369.5
February
11
409
354.0
0
55.00
354
March
12
414
370.6
7
43.33
367.75
33.89
[400364,75]=
35.25
19.75
38.25
33.25
14.50
30.50
55.00
46.25
34.09
Perio
de
Error
3
48.3
3
41
4
414384,3
3=
65.67
65.67
40
0
25.00
90.67
40
1
11.67
102.33
35
4
-51.00
51.33
-26.00
25.33
2
3
4
5
3
75.0
0
3
89.3
3
4
05.0
0
3
85.0
35
9
Absolu
te
Error
[65,67
]=
65.67
25.00
11.67
51.00
26.00
Kumulati
f
MAD
Tracking
Signal
65.67
65,
67/1=
65.67
90.67
45
.33
2.00
102.33
34
.11
3.00
153.33
38
.33
1.34
35
0.71
179.33
65,67/65,67
=1.00
.87
0
3
71.3
3
3
59.0
0
3
54.0
0
3
70.6
7
6
7
8
9
II.
36
4
-7.33
18.00
33
9
-20.00
-2.00
40
9
55.00
53.00
41
4
43.33
96.33
7.33
20.00
55.00
43.33
186.67
31
.11
0.58
206.67
29
.52
-0.07
261.67
32
.71
1.62
305.00
33
.89
2.84
t
1
2
3
A
334
357
354
FM3
July
414
=((354)+(357)+(3
34))/6=
351.67
August
400
384.50
=((354)+(357)+(33
4)+(414))/10 =
376.6
401
397.00
390.7
354
402.83
398.6
359
377.33
383.3
364
364.33
370
10
11
12
13
339
409
414
360.67
350.67
378.17
399.83
364.2
352
374
392.5
Septemb
er
October
Novemb
er
Decemb
er
January
February
March
April
FM4
F,
WMA
4
Error
376.
40
23.4
RSFP
Kumula
tif
Absolute
Error
23.40
Kumulati
f
MAD
23,40/1=
3
Tracking
Signal
390.
7
40
1
398.
6
35
4
383.
3
35
9
10.3
0
44.6
0
24.3
0
370.
0
36
4
6
7
8
364.
2
33
9
352.
0
374.
0
40
9
41
4
33.70
-10.90
-35.20
-6.00
-41.20
25.2
0
57.0
0
40.0
0
-66.40
-9.40
30.60
[23,40]=
23.40
23.40
10.30
33.70
44.60
78.30
24.30
102.60
6.00
108.60
25.20
133.80
57.00
190.80
40.00
230.80
23.40
16.85
-0.42
25.65
-1.37
21.72
-2.98
27.26
28.85
4
3
2
-1
UCL
LCL
1
9 10 11 12
Tracking Signal
-2
-3
-4
-5
-1.90
22.30
2.00
26.10
3. Grafik Peta Control Tracing Signal Dari Peramalan Model Weight MA(4)
MAD/AS=1
.00
-0.34
1.06
Bulan
(F,ES a:0.9)
(F,ES a:0.95)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
334
357
354
414
400
401
354
359
364
339
409
414
374.92
338.09
355.11
354.11
408.01
400.80
400.98
358.70
358.97
363.50
341.45
402.24
412.82
374.92
336.05
356.05
354.06
411.01
400.40
400.99
356.35
358.98
363.75
340.22
405.62
413.41
374.92
900
800
700
600
500
Permintaan WMA4
400
Permintaan Aktual
300
200
100
0
III.
A
334
357
354
414
400
401
354
359
364
339
409
414
374.92
338.09
355.11
354.11
408.01
400.80
400.98
358.70
358.97
363.50
341.45
402.24
412.82
374.91
67
(F,ES
a:0.95)
ABSOLUTE
[334374,92]=40.92
18.91
1.11
59.89
8.01
0.20
46.98
0.30
5.03
24.50
67.55
11.76
374.92
336.05
356.05
354.06
411.01
400.40
400.99
356.35
358.98
363.75
340.22
405.62
413.41
ABSOLUTE
[334-374,92]=
40.92
20.95
2.05
59.94
11.01
0.60
46.99
2.65
5.02
24.75
68.78
8.38
23.76
24.34
F
374.
92
338.
09
355.
11
354.
11
408.
01
400.
80
400.
98
358.
70
358.
97
363.
50
Error
RSFE
Absolute
Kumulatif
Absolute Error
MAD
Tracking
Signal
334
-40.92
-40.92
40.92
40.92
40.92
-1.00
357
18.91
-22.01
18.91
59.83
29.91
-0.74
354
-1.11
-23.12
1.11
60.93
20.31
-1.14
414
59.89
36.77
59.89
120.82
30.21
1.22
400
-8.01
28.76
8.01
128.83
25.77
1.12
401
0.20
28.96
0.20
129.03
21.51
1.35
354
-46.98
-18.02
46.98
176.01
25.14
-0.72
359
0.30
-17.72
0.30
176.32
22.04
-0.80
364
5.03
-12.69
5.03
181.35
20.15
-0.63
339
-24.50
-37.19
24.50
205.84
20.58
-1.81
1
1
1
2
341.
45
402.
24
4.
409
67.55
30.36
67.55
273.39
24.85
1.22
414
11.76
42.12
11.76
285.15
23.76
1.77
LCL
0
-1
10
11
12
-2
-3
-4
-5
5.
Tracking Signal
300
Permintaan Aktual
250
(F,ES a:0.9)
200
Permintaan Aktual
150
(F,ES a:0.9)
100
50
0
IV.
Bulan
tA
April
May
June
July
August
Septem
ber
October
Novemb
er
Decemb
er
January
February
March
rata-rata
1
2
3
4
5
334
357
354
414
400
1 x 334 = 334
2x 357= 714
1062
1656
2000
1 = 1
4
9
16
25
6
7
401
354
2406
2478
36
49
359
2872
64
9
10
11
12
78
6.5
364
339
409
414
4499
374.92
3276
3390
4499
4968
29655
81
100
121
144
650
(tA-n(t-bar)(A-bar))/(t^2- n (t-bar))
(29655- 12(6,5)(374,92 )) /(650-12(6,65) =
A-bar b (t-bar)
374,92 2,88(6,5) = 356.21
b=
a=
Ft=
2.88
356.21+2.88 t
Bulan
April
May
June
July
August
Septembe
r
October
November
December
January
February
March
april
t
1
2
3
4
5
A
334
357
354
414
400
Ft=a+bt
356.21+2.88 (1) = 359.09
361.97
364.85
367.73
370.61
401
373.49
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
354
359
364
339
409
414
376.37
379.25
382.13
385.01
387.89
390.77
393.65
F
359.0
9
361.9
7
364.8
5
367.7
3
370.6
1
373.4
9
376.3
7
379.2
5
Error
RSFE
Absolut
e
Kumulatif
Absolute Error
334
-25.09
-40.92
40.92
40.92
357
-4.97
-45.89
18.91
59.83
354
-10.85
-56.74
1.11
60.93
414
46.27
-10.47
59.89
120.82
400
29.39
18.92
8.01
128.83
401
27.51
46.43
0.20
129.03
354
-22.37
24.06
46.98
176.01
359
-20.25
3.81
0.30
176.32
MAD
40.9
2
29.9
1
20.3
1
30.2
1
25.7
7
21.5
1
25.1
4
22.0
4
TRACKING
SIGNAL
-1.00
-1.53
-2.79
-0.35
0.73
2.16
0.96
0.17
9
1
0
1
1
1
2
382.1
3
385.0
1
387.8
9
390.7
7
364
-18.13
-14.32
5.03
181.35
339
-46.01
-60.33
24.50
205.84
409
21.11
-39.22
67.55
273.39
414
23.23
-15.99
11.76
285.15
V.
20.1
5
20.5
8
24.8
5
23.7
6
FIT
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
APRIL
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
334
357
354
414
400
401
354
359
364
339
409
414
395.00
352.30
355.59
354.48
396.14
398.84
400.35
367.91
361.67
363.30
346.29
390.19
406.86
0
-8.54
-6.17
-5.16
4.20
3.90
3.42
-3.75
-4.25
-3.07
-5.86
4.09
6.61
360.84
361.76
359.64
391.94
394.94
396.93
371.66
365.92
366.37
352.15
386.10
400.25
10
-0.71
-2.93
-1.58
-0.67
F
395.
00
352.
30
355.
59
354.
48
396.
14
398.
84
400.
35
367.
91
361.
67
363.
30
346.
29
390.
19
ERROR
RSFE
Absolut
e
Kumulatif
absolute
error
MAD
Tracking
signal
334
-61.00
-40.92
40.92
40.92
40.92
-1.00
357
4.70
-36.22
18.91
59.83
29.91
-1.21
354
-1.59
-37.81
1.11
60.93
20.31
-1.86
414
59.52
21.72
59.89
120.82
30.21
0.72
400
3.86
25.57
8.01
128.83
25.77
0.99
401
2.16
27.73
0.20
129.03
21.51
1.29
354
-46.35
-18.62
46.98
176.01
25.14
-0.74
359
-8.91
-27.53
0.30
176.32
22.04
-1.25
364
2.33
-25.20
5.03
181.35
20.15
-1.25
339
-24.30
-49.50
24.50
205.84
20.58
-2.40
409
62.71
13.21
67.55
273.39
24.85
0.53
414
23.81
37.02
11.76
285.15
23.76
1.56
11
5
4
3
UCL
LCL
Tracking Signal
0
-1
UCL
1
10 11 12
LCL
Tracking Signal
-2
-3
-4
-5
4.
VI.
Bulan
May' 14 April' 15
May' 15 April' 16
May
June
199
204
194
199
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
219
209
224
225
211
219
217
225
220
204
209
214
217
224
226
219
223
217
12
April
229
213
Bulan
Permintaan
Aktual
Rata-rata
Permintaan
2014-2015
Rata-rata
Permintaa
n Per
Bulan*)
Indeks
Musim
2014
2015
May
199
194
(199+194)/2=
197
215
197/215 =
0.914
June
July
August
Septembe
r
October
Novembe
r
December
January
February
March
April
Total
Rata-rata
204
219
209
199
204
209
202
212
209
215
215
215
0.937
0.984
0.972
224
225
214
217
219
221
215
215
1.019
1.028
211
219
217
225
220
229
224
226
219
223
217
213
218
223
218
224
219
221
2580
2580/12= 215
215
215
215
215
215
215
1.012
1.035
1.014
1.042
1.016
1.028
12.000
13
Indeks Waktu,
t
Permintaan
Aktual, A
May-14
199
June
July
August
Septembe
r
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May-15
June
July
August
Septembe
r
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
Total
2
3
4
204
219
209
1x 199=
199
2x2014=
408
657
836
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
224
225
211
219
217
225
220
229
194
199
204
209
1120
1350
1477
1752
1953
2250
2420
2748
2522
2786
3060
3344
25
36
49
64
81
100
121
144
169
196
225
256
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
300
3638
3906
4256
4520
4599
4906
4991
5112
64810
289
324
361
400
441
484
529
576
4900
Rata-rata
300/24= 12.5
214
217
224
226
219
223
217
213
5160
5160/12=
215
14
tA
^2
1= 1
4
9
16
Indeks
Musim
Nilai Trend
Berdasarkan
Model F =
211.625 +
0.27t
Nilai
Ramalan
Setelah
Dikoreksi, F*
199
204
0.914
0.937
211.895
212.165
194
199
219
209
224
225
211
219
217
225
220
229
194
199
204
209
214
217
224
226
219
223
217
213
0.984
0.972
1.019
1.028
1.012
1.035
1.014
1.042
1.016
1.028
0.914
0.937
0.984
0.972
1.019
1.028
1.012
1.035
1.014
1.042
1.016
1.028
0.914
0.937
0.984
0.972
1.019
212.435
212.705
212.975
213.245
213.515
213.785
214.055
214.325
214.595
214.865
215.135
215.405
215.675
215.945
216.215
216.485
216.755
217.025
217.295
217.565
217.835
218.105
218.375
218.645
218.915
219.185
219.455
209
207
217
219
216
221
217
223
218
221
197
202
212
210
220
223
219
225
220
227
221
224
200
205
215
213
224
Periode
Waktu 20142016
Indeks
Waktu, t
Permintaan
Aktual, A
May-14
June
1
2
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May-15
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May-16
June
July
August
September
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
15
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
5.
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
1.028
1.012
1.035
1.014
1.042
1.016
1.028
219.725
219.995
220.265
220.535
220.805
221.075
221.345
226
223
228
224
230
225
228
240
230
220
210
Permintaan Aktual
200
190
180
170
16
17
VII.
Banyak kanban =
Post
Kerja
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Part
Perminta
an
Permintaan
Harian
LT
Mingg
u
LT
Hari
Safety
factor
Lot
size
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
96000
97000
98000
99000
101000
10400
10900
9900
10100
10300
4000
4042
4083
4125
4208
2080
2180
1980
2020
2060
5
5
6
6
6
7
5
5
5
5
25
25
30
30
30
35
25
25
25
25
1.25
1.25
1.5
1.5
1.75
1.75
1.75
1.5
1.5
1.25
16
16
16
14
14
28
28
28
24
24
Permintaan harian =
Banyak kanban =
96000
=4000
24
4000 x 25 x 1,25
=7813
16
18
Banya
k
kanba
n
7813
7894
11484
13259
15781
4550
3406
2652
3156
2682
Kanba
n
Produk
si
6250
6315
7656
8839
9018
2600
1946
1768
2104
2146
Kanban
Pengam
an
jumla
h
(cek)
1563
1579
3828
4420
6763
1950
1460
884
1052
536
7813
7894
11484
13259
15781
4550
3406
2652
3156
2682
Kanban produksi =
Kanban pengaman =
1
x 7813=6250
kartu
1,25
0,25
x 7813=1563
1,25
kartu
19