tren linear
Yduga = a + bX
b. tren nonlinear
1) tren kuadratik
c. tren eksponensial
Y = Log (Y duga)
a' = log (a) ; b'= log (b)
a= 10^a
b = 10^b
a. tren linear
b. tren kuadratik
c. tren eksponensial
d. Model terbaik
1) Tren linear
Tahun X (koding)
2005 -4
2006 -3
2007 -2
2008 -1
2009 0
2010 1
2011 2
2012 3
2013 4
Jumlah 0
2) tren kuadratik
Tahun X (koding)
2005 -4
2006 -3
2007 -2
2008 -1
2009 0
2010 1
2011 2
2012 3
2013 4
Jumlah 0
3) tren eksponensial
Tahun X (koding)
2005 -4
2006 -3
2007 -2
2008 -1
2009 0
2010 1
2011 2
2012 3
2013 4
Jumlah 0
Nilai residual:
Model
Linier
Kuadratik
Eksponensial
x xy x^2 X^2Y X^4 Log (Y) X.Log(Y)
-4 -268 16 1072 256 1.826075 -7.304299
-3 -210 9 630 81 1.845098 -5.535294
-2 -158 4 316 16 1.897627 -3.795254
-1 -82 1 82 1 1.913814 -1.913814
0 0 0 0 0 1.944483 0
1 92 1 92 1 1.963788 1.963788
2 200 4 400 16 2 4
3 345 9 1035 81 2.060698 6.182094
4 500 16 2000 256 2.09691 8.38764
0 419 60 5627 708 17.54849 1.98486
x koding xy x^2
2018-2009 = 9
6.9833333333333 maka X = 9
90.888888888889
153.73888888889
0.5638528
6.9833333
87.12987
log(Y) X.Log(Y)
1.9498325 a= 89.09072
0.033081 b= 1.079148
Yduga = 89.09*1.07^9
nilai tren 2018 = 176.832246831174
Penerimaan
Pajak Ŷ Ŷ-Y (Ŷ - Y)^2
(Y)
67 62.955556 -4.044444444444 16.3575308641976
70 69.938889 -0.061111111111 0.0037345679012353
79 76.922222 -2.077777777778 4.31716049382718
82 83.905556 1.9055555555556 3.63114197530863
88 90.888889 2.8888888888889 8.34567901234566
92 97.872222 5.8722222222222 34.4829938271605
100 104.85556 4.8555555555556 23.5764197530864
115 111.83889 -3.161111111111 9.99262345679013
125 118.82222 -6.177777777778 38.1649382716049
818 818 -2.84217094E-14 138.87
Penerimaan
Pajak Ŷ Ŷ-Y (Ŷ - Y)^2
(Y)
67 68.218182 1.2181818181818 1.48396694214876
70 71.254545 1.2545454545455 1.57388429752065
79 75.418615 -3.581385281385 12.8263205337231
82 80.71039 -1.28961038961 1.66309495699106
88 87.12987 -0.87012987013 0.757125990892229
92 94.677056 2.6770562770563 7.16663031052643
100 103.35195 3.3519480519481 11.2355557429584
115 113.15455 -1.845454545455 3.40570247933884
125 124.08485 -0.915151515152 0.837502295684099
818 818 1.421085472E-14 40.95
Penerimaan
Pajak Ŷ Ŷ-Y (Ŷ - Y)^2
(Y)
67 65.691391 -1.308609066932 1.71245769005606
70 70.890732 0.8907315745062 0.793402737822227
79 76.50159 -2.498410495082 6.24205500193531
82 82.556535 0.5565354848684 0.309731745917695
88 89.090718 1.0907181847009 1.18966615843727
92 96.142068 4.142068220881 17.1567291464322
100 103.75152 3.7515183414004 14.0738898658638
115 111.96324 -3.036758961588 9.22190499078498
125 120.8249 -4.175095032577 17.4314185310494
818 817.4127 -0.587301749822 68.13
Nilai Residual Nilai residual ∑(Ŷ-Y)^2 terkecil adalah yang dihasilkan dari Trend Model Kuadratik
138.87 Jadi, kesimpulannya
40.95 Trend Model Kuadratik adalah model terbaik dalam meramal jumlah penerimaan pajak pada sua
68.13
rend Model Kuadratik