33aggregate Demand Ind
33aggregate Demand Ind
Penawaran Agregat
33
Real GDP
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Investment spending
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
8
6
4
2
0
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
PENJELASAN FLUKTUASI
EKONOMI JANGKA PENDEK
Bagaimana Jangka Pendek Berbeda dari Jangka
Panjang
Sebagian besar ekonom percaya bahwa teori klasik
menggambarkan dunia dalam jangka panjang tetapi
tidak dalam jangka pendek.
Perubahan jumlah uang beredar mempengaruhi variabel
nominal tetapi tidak variabel riil dalam jangka panjang.
Asumsi netralitas moneter tidak tepat ketika mempelajari
perubahan tahun-ke-tahun dalam perekonomian.
Aggregate
supply
Equilibrium
price level
Aggregate
demand
Equilibrium
output
Quantity of
Output
Copyright 2004 South-Western
P2
1. A decrease
in the price
level . . .
0
Aggregate
demand
Y
Y2
Quantity of
Output
Konsumsi
Investasi
Pembelian pemerintah
Ekspor Neto
P1
D2
Aggregate
demand, D1
0
Y1
Y2
Quantity of
Output
Copyright 2004 South-Western
P2
1. A change
in the price
level . . .
0
Natural rate
of output
Quantity of
Output
Tenaga kerja
Modal
Sumber Daya Alam
Pengetahuan Teknologi
Long-run
aggregate
supply,
LRAS1980 LRAS1990 LRAS2000
Price
Level
P2000
4. . . . and
ongoing inflation.
P1990
Aggregate
Demand, AD2000
P1980
AD1990
AD1980
0
Y1980
Y1990
Quantity of
Output
3. . . . leading to growth
in output . . .
Y2000
P2
2. . . . reduces the quantity
of goods and services
supplied in the short run.
1. A decrease
in the price
level . . .
Y2
Quantity of
Output
Copyright 2004 South-Western
Teori Sticky-Price
Harga beberapa barang dan jasa menyesuaikan
dengan lamban dalam menanggapi perubahan
kondisi ekonomi :
Penurunan tak terduga dalam tingkat harga meninggalkan
beberapa perusahaan dengan l harga lebih tinggi dari
yang diinginkan.
Penjualan yang tertekan ini, yang mendorong
perusahaan untuk mengurangi jumlah barang dan jasa
yang mereka hasilkan.
tenaga kerja
Modal
Sumber Daya Alam.
Teknologi.
Tingkat Harga yang Diharapkan.
Short-run
aggregate
supply
Equilibrium
price
Aggregate
demand
0
Natural rate
of output
Quantity of
Output
Copyright 2004 South-Western
Short-run aggregate
supply, AS
AS2
3. . . . but over
time, the short-run
aggregate-supply
curve shifts . . .
P
B
P2
P3
1. A decrease in
aggregate demand . . .
Aggregate
demand, AD
AD2
0
Y2
Y
4. . . . and output returns
to its natural rate.
Quantity of
Output
Copyright 2004 South-Western
AS2
Short-run
aggregate
supply, AS
P2
A
P
3. . . . and
the price
level to rise.
Aggregate demand
0
Y2
Quantity of
Output
Copyright 2004 South-Western
P3
P2
3. . . . which P
causes the
price level
to rise
further . . .
0
Short-run
aggregate
supply, AS
AS2
2. . . . policymakers can
accommodate the shift
by expanding aggregate
demand . . .
AD2
Aggregate demand, AD
Quantity of
Output
Copyright 2004 South-Western
Rangkuman
All societies experience short-run economic
fluctuations around long-run trends.
These fluctuations are irregular and largely
unpredictable.
When recessions occur, real GDP and other
measures of income, spending, and production
fall, and unemployment rises.
Rangkuman
Economists analyze short-run economic
fluctuations using the aggregate demand and
aggregate supply model.
According to the model of aggregate demand
and aggregate supply, the output of goods and
services and the overall level of prices adjust to
balance aggregate demand and aggregate
supply.
Rangkuman
The aggregate-demand curve slopes downward
for three reasons: a wealth effect, an interest
rate effect, and an exchange rate effect.
Any event or policy that changes consumption,
investment, government purchases, or net
exports at a given price level will shift the
aggregate-demand curve.
Rangkuman
In the long run, the aggregate supply curve is
vertical.
The short-run, the aggregate supply curve is
upward sloping.
The are three theories explaining the upward
slope of short-run aggregate supply: the
misperceptions theory, the sticky-wage theory,
and the sticky-price theory.
Rangkuman
Events that alter the economys ability to
produce output will shift the short-run
aggregate-supply curve.
Also, the position of the short-run aggregatesupply curve depends on the expected price
level.
One possible cause of economic fluctuations is
a shift in aggregate demand.
Rangkuman
A second possible cause of economic
fluctuations is a shift in aggregate supply.
Stagflation is a period of falling output and
rising prices.