Statistics and Probability By : Ayundyah Kesumawati

• Sejak awal perkembangan kualitas, para praktisi

telah memperdebatkan pentingnya metode-
metode statistik dalam mencapai kualitas yang
memuaskan.
Statistics as a • Tanpa statistik, maka penggambaran
tools in penyelesaian mengenai data akan menjadi
sumber malapetaka dalam penerapannya pada
quality control berbagai kasus.
• konsep penting lainnya adalah variasi atau
penyimpangan yang membahas mengenai tidak
adanya dua hal yang sama secara sempurna
 Fungsi distribusi probabilitas merupakan
rumusan matematika yang berhubungan
dengan nilai-nilai karakteristik dengan
probabilitas kejadian pada populasi
Probability of
Distribution
Rata-rata dari distribusi probabilitas
disebut nilai yang diharapkan
Discrete Distribution
Diskret (untuk data atribut)

Apabila karakteristik yang diukur hanya

membicarakan nilai - nilai tertentu (misalnya
0,1,2,3), distribusi probabilitasnya disebut
dengan distribusi probabilitas diskret. Sebagai
contoh, distribusi untuk banyaknya kesalahan
pada sampel yang berisi 5 unit merupakan
distribusi probabilitas diskret karena kesalahan
hanya 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, atau 5. Distribusi
probbailitas yang dipakai ada 2 yaitu Poisson
dan Binomial.
 Continuous
Distribution
Continuous (untuk data variabel)

apabila karakteristik yang diukur dapat

membicarakan berbagai nilai (ketepatan
pengukuran proses), distribusi probabilitasnya
disebut distribusi probabilitas kontinu. Ada
berbagai bentuk distribusi probabilitas yang
biasa digunakan, misalnya distribusi
probbailitas normal, distribusi probabilitas
exponensial, dan distribusi probabilitas
Weibull.
Discrete Probability - Binomial Distribution
- Poisson Distribution

Distribution - Hypergeometric
Distribution
 POISSON
DISTRIBUTION
Poisson Distribution
• Discrete Distribution
• Describe the number of events
occurring in a fixed time interval or
region of opportunity
• Requires only one parameter ()
• Bounded by 0 and ∞
 The rate at which events occur is
constant

Assumptions
The occurrence of one event
does not affect the occurrence
of a subsequent event (ie. Events
are independent)
Probability Density Function
Poisson Distribution (𝝀 = 4)
0.25

𝑒− 𝜆 𝜆 𝑥
𝑃 ( 𝑋 =𝑥 ) =
𝑥!
0.2

0.15
−4 5
𝑒 4
𝑃 ( 𝑋 =5 )= =0,1562
5! 0.1

0.05

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Cumulative Density Function
Poisson Distribution (𝝀 = 4)
0.25

Γ ( [ 𝑥 +1 ] , 𝜆)
𝑃 ( 𝑋 ≤ 𝑥 )=
[𝑥 !]
0.2

0,785
0.15

= 0,785 0.1

0.05

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
 Expected Value:
Poisson Distribution (𝝀 = 4)
0.25

0.2

0.15
Variance:
0.1

0.05

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Poisson Distribution (𝝀 = 1)
P(X)
0.4

0.35

0.3

0.25
Probability

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Number of Product
Poisson Distribution (𝝀 = 2)
0.3

0.25

0.2

0.15
P(X)

0.1

0.05

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

X
Poisson Distribution (𝝀 = 3)
0.25

0.2

0.15
P(X)

0.1

0.05

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

X
Poisson Distribution (𝝀 = 4)
0.25

0.2

0.15
P(X)

0.1

0.05

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

X
Poisson Distribution (𝝀 = 5)
0.2

0.18

0.16

0.14

0.12

0.1
P(X)

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

X
For example

Number of car accident Determination the number Number of incoming

insurance claims against an of damaged parts in every telephone calls every
insurance company every 3.000 meters on highway minute at the highway
year magnetic line emergency office service
Case Study

Exclusive Handbag import Indonesian batik into

South Korea. They’ve begun advertising on
Facebook to direct traffic to their website where
customers can order batik online. The number of
click through sales from the ad is Poisson
distributed with a mean of 12 click through sales
per day
 Exactly 10 click through
sales in the first day
Find the At least 10 click through
probability
of getting : sales in the first day
More than one sale in
the first hour
Bonus Question

Do you think the poisson

distribution is
appropriate for this
scenario in reality ?
 Result Probablity exactly 10 click through sales in the first day
P(10 click through sales in the first day) =

0.14

0.12

0.1

0.08

= 0,1048
P(X)

0.06

0.04

0.02
¿ 𝑃𝑂𝐼𝑆𝑆𝑂𝑁 . 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇 (10,12, 𝐹𝐴𝐿𝑆𝐸 )
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

X
 Probability At least 10 click through sales in the first day
𝑃 ( 𝑋 ≥ 10 ) = ¿

0.14

0.12

0.1
0,708
𝑃 ( 𝑋 ≥ 10 )=1− 𝑃 (𝑋 ≤
0.08 ¿ 1− 𝑃𝑂𝐼𝑆𝑆𝑂𝑁 . 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇 ( 9,12 ,𝑇𝑅𝑈𝐸 )
P(X)

0.06

0.04

0.02

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

X
 Probability more than 1 click through sale in one hour

0.7

P(more than 1 click through sale in one hour

0.6
12
𝜆 = Sales per = hour0.5
24
0.5

0.4

0,090
¿ 1− 𝑃𝑂𝐼𝑆𝑆𝑂𝑁 . 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇 (1,0.5 ,𝑇𝑅𝑈𝐸 )
P(x)

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

x
Do you think The rate at which events
the poisson occur must be constant
distribution is
appropriate
for this (no interval can be more
scenario in likely to have an event than
reality ? any other interval of the
same size)