Longitudinal/Panel
POLA DATA DERET WAKTU
9 Constant 50
45
Trend
8
40
7
35
6
30
5
25
20
3
15
2
10
1
5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
18 Seasonal 25
Cyclic
16
14
20
12
10 15
10
6
4
5
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
METODE PERAMALAN
1. Moving average
Smoothing
2. Double Moving Average
3. Exponential Smoothing
4. Double Exponential Smoothing
5. Holt Winters
1. ARIMA
Modeling
2. ARCH/GARCH
MOVING AVERAGE Constant
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00 Semu
MA (m
4.00 MA (m
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
ma Waktu
Tren
DOUBLE MOVING AVERAGE
75.00 110.00
100.00
70.00
90.00
80.00
65.00
60.00
60.00
50.00
55.00
40.00
50.00 30.00
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58
SIAP 16
Model
Pemulusan Metode
Holt Winters
SOAL DATA MINING ON SITE