Rakernis Kabag Analis

Ditintelkam Polda dan Baintelkam

PREDIKSI DAN PENGELOLAAN POTENSI PERMASALAHAN PEMILU 2024

Dr Burhanuddin Muhtadi
Indikator Politik Indonesia and Visiting Fellow ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute
 PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATING TREND FOR JOKOWI
100

90

80 75.3
73.9
71.9 71.2 72.4 72.0 71.6 71.3 71.0 71.8 72.0 71.4 71.7
69.8 69.5
70 66.5 67.1 67.5 68.3 68.1
66.5 65.2 67.5

61.7 61.7 62.9 63.7

59.3 59.3 59.9
60
53.4 53.0

50
40.7
40

30

20

10

Litbang Kompas, 17-30 J...

Okt'15

Apr'16

Sept'17

Feb'18

Sep'18

Okt'18

Des'18

Feb'19

Mrt'19

Sept'19

Feb'20

Juli'20

Feb'21

Apr'21

Nov'21

Des'21

1-6 Jan'22

Feb'22

Apr'22

Juni'22
Jan'15

Jun'15

Des'15

Jan'16

Mar'16

Jun'16

Ags'16

Mar'18

Jul'18

Jul'19

Mei'20

Jul'21
Sumber: Indikator

Survei Nasional: 16 - 24 Juni 2022 2

 ALASAN PUAS/TIDAK PUAS ATAS KINERJA PRESIDEN
Apa alasan PALING UTAMA Ibu/Bapak merasa sangat atau cukup puas dengan kinerja Apa alasan PALING UTAMA Ibu/Bapak merasa kurang atau tidak puas sama sekali
Presiden Joko Widodo?... (%) dengan kinerja Presiden Joko Widodo?... (%)

Memberi bantuan kepada rakyat kecil 38.1 Harga-harga kebutuhan pokok meningkat 44.1
Membangun infrastruktur jalan, jembatan, bendungan, dll. 20.0 15.4
Lapangan kerja/pengangguran 6.7
Kinerjanya sudah bagus 9.8
4.9
Orangnya merakyat 6.8 Gagal menanggulangi pandemi COVID 3.9
Orangnya baik 4.8 3.4
Mengendalikan harga-harga kebutuhan pokok 2.4 Kurang berpihak kepada rakyat kecil 3.2
2.1
Mengurangi kemiskinan 2.0
Dikendalikan oleh partai 1.3
Penanggulangan pandemi COVID-19 1.4 1.2
Memperbaiki kualitas pendidikan 1.3 Hutang negara semakin tinggi 1.1
Pemerataan pendapatan 1.2 Puas terutama karena memberi 1.1 Sementara tidak puas terutama
bantuan dan membangun Ketidak adilan penegakan hukum 1.0 karena harga kebutuhan pokok
Pemberantasan korupsi 1.1
infrastruktur. 0.7 meningkat.
Meningkatkan kewibawaan pemerintah 1.0 Gagal menangani mudik lebaran 0.6
Menjaga stabilitas politik dan keamanan 0.9 0.4
Tidak ingin berprasangka buruk, terlebih kepada pemimpin 0.9 Gagal menangani mafia minyak goreng 0.3
0.2
Harus menghormati apapun hasil kerja pemimpin kita 0.8
Kurang berpihak kepada Islam 0.2
Lapangan kerja/mengurangi pengangguran 0.6 0.1
Penanganan mudik lebaran 0.4 Tidak suka Jokowi 0.1
Penanganan mafia minyak goreng 0.1 0.1
Wibawa pemerintah jatuh 0.1
Lainnya 4.4
6.8
TT/TJ 2.3 TT/TJ 1.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 10 20 30 40 50

Survei Nasional: 16 - 24 Juni 2022 3

 NATIONAL ECONOMIC CONDITION TREND

90
Good
81.0
80 Mod-
erate
70 69.2
Bad
65.5 DK/NR
61.8
60

52.5
50 50.5 49.5
48.1 47.2 47.9

43.1 42.2
40.5 41.5 41.4
40 40.2
39.0 39.5 39.2 40.3
38.8 39.4 40.4
39.1
38.4 37.7 37.8 37.5 38.4 37.6
37.3 37.2
36.1
34.9 34.9
33.1 33.4 33.3 33.0 33.8 33.5 33.2 33.7
31.9 31.7 31.1 32.2 31.9 31.3
30 31.0 30.1 30.5
28.5 29.3
28.9
28.1 27.8 27.8 28.1
26.6 25.7 26.6
25.1 24.9 24.2 24.5 25.4 24.5
24.1 24.2
23.0 22.9
20.5 21.3 21.4
20 19.5 19.6
17.9
15.2 14.9
13.4 13.5
11.4
10 8.9 9.8 9.8
6.3 6.7
3.9 4.5 4.4 3.4
2.4 3.1 2.9 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.9
1.3 1.6 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.8
0 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7

2018

2019
SEPT'06

SEPT'07

OKT'08

SEPT'09

OKT'10

DES'11

SEPT'12

OKT'13

OKT'14

OKT'15

OKT'16

2017

FEB'20

MEI'20

SEPT'20

FEB'21

MRT'21

APR'21

NOV'21

DES'21

1-6 Jan'22

FEB'22

APR'22

JUN'22
OKT'04

JUL'20

JU;'21
Survei Nasional: 16 - 24 Juni 2022 4
 HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIC CONDITION TREND

90

83.7
80 Improving

71.5 Staying the same

70 69.7
65.3
Deteriorating
60

53.3 DK/NR
50

42.7
40 40.6
38.0 37.5 36.5
34.9 36.3 36.1
32.8 32.5 32.7 32.0
31.6
30 29.5 30.6
27.7 28.4
26.2
22.0 23.1 23.3
20 19.0
18.4

10 11.4
9.4
7.1 7.7
4.1
0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Feb'20 Mei'20 Juli'20 Sept'20 Feb'21 Juli'21 Nov'21 Des'21 Feb'22 Apr'22 Jun'22

Survei Nasional: 16 - 24 Juni 2022 5

 NATIONAL POLITICAL CONDITION TREND
50

45 44.6
41.0 41.0 43.4
39.0 41.5 41.5
40 40.2 38.239.7
38.2 36.8
35.037.3 37.5 35.2 37.5 37.1 37.3
35 35.5 35.2 35.1 35.0
36.5 36.3 32.9
34.0 35.8 33.4
32.3 30.4 31.0
29.2 29.2 29.5 29.0
30 27.4 27.4
30.1 27.9 31.7
30.7 30.9
26.2 28.1
27.9 27.5 23.5
Good
25 23.5 23.2
24.7
Moderate
19.6
20
23.1 Bad
21.2 21.2 21.6 21.0 20.7
19.7 19.5 19.9
19.2
DK/NR
15 16.5 16.6
14.5 14.5
12.9
10 11.3 11.5 12.1
10.4 10.5 10.2
9.5 9.4 9.4 9.3
7.9 8.0 7.7 7.7 8.2 7.8 8.3
5 7.0 7.0 6.6
5.7

JAN 2020
OKT 2004

SEPT 2005

SEPT 2006

SEPT 2007

OKT 2008

SEPT 2009

OKT 2010

DES 2011

SEPT 2012

OKT 2013

OKT 2014

2018

2019

DES 2021

1-6 Jan'22
OKT 2015

OKT 2016

2017

Feb'22

APR'22

JUN'22
Survei Nasional: 16 - 24 Juni 2022
 NATIONAL SECURITY CONDITION TREND
70
63.7
62.2 62.1 61.7
60.4 60.4 61.3
59.3 59.3 59.1
60 57.7 58.0 58.2
57.3
54.9
53.9
52.5

48.3 48.1
50 47.6
46.7

40
Good
Moderate
30 30.5
28.5
29.6 29.7
28.5
29.5
28.6 29.1 29.9 Bad
27.9 27.7 27.7
27.0
25.8
24.5 25.4 25.1 DK/NR
24.2 23.4
23.2
23.421.7 24.0
20
20.8
19.7
18.6

15.1 15.5
14.4
10 12.3 11.6 12.4 12.2 11.4 11.8
10.5 10.7 10.9 11.4
10.0
8.7 8.7
4.6 4.2 4.8
2.6 3.2 2.4 3.0
2.3 2.2 2.3 1.8 2.0 2.3
1.4 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.0
0 0.4
OKT 2004

SEPT 2006

SEPT 2007

OKT 2008

OKT 2010

DES 2011

SEPT 2012

OKT 2013

OKT 2015

OKT 2016

2018

JAN 2020

DES 2021

1-6 Jan'22

JUN'22
SEPT 2005

SEPT 2009

OKT 2014

2017

2019

Feb'22

APR'22
Survei Nasional: 16 - 24 Juni 2022
 LAW ENFORCEMENT CONDITION TREND

60
54.7

50 47.1
46.3 46.0 45.8
43.7 44.3 44.3 44.3 43.8
43.2 42.7
41.4 41.0

40 42.5
35.2
Good
39.8 34.6
36.0 36.0
33.9
33.2
32.3
33.2 Mod-
30.8 33.3
32.6
33.6
35.2
30.0 35.2
31.9 31.8 31.8 32.6 erate
30 29.7 29.9 29.7 30.4
28.1 29.928.3
28.4 28.0 29.8
Bad
26.7
DK/NR
23.0 22.3 24.0 23.4
20 22.8
18.0 20.7 21.2 20.7
19.9
17.9 18.1 18.3 17.8
17.3
15.1 15.1
10

6.6 6.6 6.3 6.4 7.1

5.8 5.9
4.6 5.0 4.4 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4
0 3.0 3.1 2.9 3.1
2.1
OKT 2004

OKT 2010

OKT 2014

OKT 2015

2017

JAN 2020

DES 2021

1-6 Jan'22

JUN'22
OKT 2008

DES 2011

OKT 2013

OKT 2016

2018

2019

Feb'22

APR'22
SEPT ...

SEPT ...

SEPT ...

SEPT ...

SEPT ...

Survei Nasional: 16 - 24 Juni 2022

 CORRUPTION ERADICATION TREND
How do you see the current state of corruption eradication effort by the government? very good, good, moderate, bad, or very bad?… (%)

40
37.6 37.8
36.9
35.7
35 34.3 33.9 34.2
32.8 33.1
31.5 31.5
30 29.3 29.7
28.6 28.5
28.1
27.4
27.2 27.7 27.3 27.6

25

Good
20
Moderate
Bad
15
DK/NR

10
7.8
6.8
6.2
5.6
5 4.3 4.9
4.0

0
Juli'21 Nov'21 Des'21 1-6 Jan'22 Feb'22 Apr'22 JUN'22

Survei Nasional: 16 - 24 Juni 2022 9

 MASALAH MENDESAK
Menurut Ibu/Bapak mana masalah paling mendesak yang harus diselesaikan oleh pemimpin nasional lima tahun ke depan? (hanya satu jawaban)... (%)

Mengendalikan harga-harga kebutuhan pokok 43.0

Menciptakan lapangan kerja/mengurangi pengangguran 15.0
Mengurangi kemiskinan 9.3
Pemberantasan korupsi 6.7
Mendorong pertumbuhan usaha mikro, kecil dan menengah (UMKM) 3.7
Keamanan/ketertiban 3.7
Memajukan sektor pertanian 3.0
Memperbaiki kualitas pendidikan 1.8
Mengurangi impor barang dan tenaga kerja 1.5
Pemerataan pendapatan 1.3
Penanganan wabah virus corona (COVID-19) 1.2
Memberantas tindakan-tindakan yang bertentangan dengan moral 1.1
Hutang luar negeri 0.8
Paling banyak warga merasa masalah paling mendesak yang harus
Kemudahan mendapatkan modal usaha 0.8 diselesaikan oleh pemimpin nasional lima tahun ke depan adalah
Melindungi alam Indonesia dari kehancuran akibat kegiatan usaha 0.7 mengendalikan harga kebutuhan pokok, menciptakan lapangan
Memperkuat nilai tukar rupiah terhadap mata uang luar negeri 0.5 kerja/mengurangi pengangguran, dan mengurangi kemiskinan.
Kebebasan berpendapat 0.5
Ujaran kebencian berbau SARA 0.5
Mencegah masuknya barang-barang dan pekerja dari luar negeri (asing) 0.2
Meningkatkan kewibawaan pemerintah 0.1
Perlindungan terhadap kelompok minoritas 0.0
Lainnya 2.5
TT/TJ 2.4
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0

Survei Nasional: 16 - 24 Juni 2022 10

 JOKOWI SUPREMACY
• Jokowi again shows his absolute grip in power to
pass his agenda in the parliament: now to pass the
bill for the new capital city (IKN) Law.
• The phenomenon of one party rule
• Push for democratic reform e.g. Sexual Violence Bill,
the Asset Confiscation Bill and the Revised ITE Law.
• He also asked the BLBI Task Force to pursue
fraudulent debtors who received BLBI funds. To
process big corruption cases.
• Trying to improve his image in terms of eradicating
corruption in order to boost his approval rating.
• Jokowi has recently become more proactive in
international issues.
• Term extension saga split his coalition parties

12
 King Maker for 2024, is it Possible?
• There are three preconditions :
• 1) how far Jokowi is able to maintain his high
approval rating.
• 2) If there are no prevailing and dominant
presidential candidates like now, then the
current presidential candidates will need to
“ask” for Jokowi’s blessings.
• 3) If the lawsuit to the Constitutional Court is
approved and the PT is reduced, then it could
be that a new presidential candidate would
emerge against Jokowi's will.

13
 Nomination requirements or eligibility requirements?
• Presidential nomination threshold.
- 20% of the number of seats, or
- obtain 25% of valid votes nationally
• In many cases in countries, it is not a nomination
requirement, but an eligibility requirement.
- Brazil, 50% plus 1;
- Ecuador 50% plus 1 or 45% provided the
difference from the strongest rival reaches 10%;
- Argentina, 45% or 40% as long as there is 10%
vote gap from the strongest rival.
• The Indonesian Constitution has explicitly specified
electability thresholds.
 Problems of PT in simultaneous election
• Increasingly problematic in the context of
simultaneous elections as in 2019 and in the
upcoming 2024 elections.
- New parties lost their rights as party bearers of
the presidential election in 2024.

• In the 2004, 2009 and 2014 elections, legislative and

presidential elections were carried out separately.
 Implications of candidacy thresholds
that are too restrictive
• The phenomenon of a single candidate in
the local elections.
- The party will tend to coalesce rather
than compete.
• Limits the emergence of alternative
candidate pairs.
• Political polarization.
- To reduce political polarization, the two
rounds rule of the electoral system should
also be abolished.
From Presidential Term Extensions to Postponement of
Elections
• A change in strategy from the narrative of a
three-term extension to an extension until 2027.
• Extending to 2027 as more politically feasible.
The extension of three terms necessitates the
amendment of the Constitution.
• The idea of postponing the election does not
require constitutional changes if it refers to
historical precedents.

17
 PENUNDAAN PEMILU HINGGA TAHUN 2027
KARENA PANDEMI
Di antara pendapat berikut, mana yang lebih sesuai dengan pendapat Ibu/Bapak sendiri?.… (%)

100.0

81.7
80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0
13.6
4.7
0.0
Pandemi Covid-19 dan pemulihan Pergantian kepemimpinan nasional melalui TT/TJ
perekonomian nasional harus menjadi priori- pemilu tahun 2024 harus tetap dilaksanakan
tas penanganannya secara tuntas oleh Presi- meski masih dalam kondisi pandemi
den Joko Widodo meski pemilu harus di-
tunda hingga tahun 2027

Survei Nasional: 8 – 14 April 2022 18

 Legislative and Presidential as well as
simultaneous local elections in 2024
• 514 regencies/cities in 34 provinces.
• At least 20% of the total seats or 25% of the total
valid votes for nomination threshold.
• A potential decrease in the number of pairs of
candidates.
• The incongruous pattern of coalitions at the
regional level from the national level.
• Some candidates who fail to get seats in the 2024
legislative elections will run for regional heads.

19
 What is Identity Politics?

Groups are politicized on the basis of gender, ethnicity, language,

religion, race, indigeneity to make claims for resources or
opportunities based on some aspect of their identity.

…explores the social and political processes which actually

underpin the politicization of identity groups
(see, e.g. Deveaux 2008, Jung 2008, Tilley 2002, etc.).
 Secara konseptual, politik identitas tidak jelas

Konsep yang licin. Bisa berarti berbeda untuk orang yang berbeda (bisa positif/negative)
• Marxist, Neo-Marxist  politik identitas negatif Kalau seorang kelompok mengartikulasikan
kepentingannya melalui politik identitas, maka akan menghalangi kepentingan yg lebih besar, yakni isu
kelas kalau dalam bahasa kelompok Marxist.
• Tapi ahli lain melihatnya lebih positif. Dalam sejarahnya, politik identitas muncul sebagai artikulasi
kelompok yang terpinggirkan. Mereka berusaha masuk dalam mainstream dengan cara memakai
kesamaan identitas. Misalnya, kelompok feminis, kelompok buruh, kelompok etnis tertentu (Kurdi
misalnya). Mereka memakai identitas untuk mengatasi ketidakadilan. Black Lives Matter misalnya.
Perdebatan tentang politik identitas
1. Menghalangi visi yang besar tentang transformasi sosial
2. Memberi ruang yang lebih luas untuk kelompok-kelompok tertentu untuk mengatasi persoalan mereka
Agama dan Politik Identitas
1. Tidak mudah dikompromikan karena sensitive
2. Apa arti politik identitas bagi kelompok mayoritas
•Mayoritas sudah berada di mainstream? Kok pakai politik identitas?
Surnas Juli 2018 |
22
One of the most contested concepts in
the social sciences’ (Cas Mudde)

‘There is a shoe in shape of populism, but

no foot that will fit into’ (Isaiah Berlin)

• Anti elite
• Anti pluralist
• ”Moralists”
Who is a
populist?
Populisme bisa berasal dari spektrum kiri
(left) atau kanan (right). Populisme tak pernah
berada ‘jalan tengah.’ Ini karena ‘populisme’
hampir sepenuhnya anti-kemapanan elit
politik.

Populisme muncul dan berkembang hanya di

negara-negara demokrasi. Ia nyaris tidak
muncul di negara otoriter yang tidak
memberikan ruang bagi wacana, konsep dan
gerakan anti kemapanan, yang mengancam
status-quo kekuasaan rezim otoriter. Begitu
juga di Indonesia, ‘populisme politik identitas
[Islam]’ muncul belakangan ini berkat
demokrasi sejak 1999 (Azra, 2019).
 Populisme dan Politik Identitas

Di Dunia Muslim, termasuk Indonesia, ‘populisme’ tumpang tindih dengan ‘politik identitas
Islam’.

Lebih karena faktanya mayoritas beragama Muslim. Di Barat, kaum populis memakai
sentimen Kristen. Di Brazil yang dipakai adalah Katolik.

Populisme’ dengan menekankan identitas primordial.

From a peripheral vigilante group into a significant
political force
Tren Intoleransi Sosial Keagamaan

Sumber: LSI (2017, 2018), Wahid Institute-LSI (2016)

31
 Tren Intoleransi Politik (%)
Apakah Ibu/Bapak keberatan atau tidak keberatan JIKA: Orang non-Muslim menjadi ...? ...
(% yang menjawab “Keberatan”) (Base: Responden Muslim)

Sumber: LSI (2017, 2018), Wahid Institute-LSI (2016)

 Radicalism Trends
Has participated + Willingness to take part in Radical Actions
45

40 Participated in planning or participating in raids (sweep-

38.4 ing)
35 35.3
33.0 Held or joined demonstrations against groups that are
30 29.7 considered to tarnish or threaten the sanctity of Islam

25 25.9
24.5 Convinced others such as friends or relatives to fight for
22.4 the enforcement of Islamic law in our country
20 19.7
18.1
16.6 16.3 16.2 Donated in the form of material (money, goods, etc.) to
15 14.5 15.1 14.5 organizations or groups that are seen as fighting for the
13.4
enforcement of Islamic law
10

Carried out attacks on houses of worship of other re-

5
ligions
3.0 2.3 2.2
1.6
0
2016 2017 2018 2019

The greatest potential for radical action is in the form of donating material, followed by convincing others, then demonstrations, raids,
and attacks on houses of worship. In the last 4 years the pattern of this sequence is relatively the same. Radical potential in 2018
tends to be higher and increasing compared to 2017, especially in the form of contributing material and convincing others.

National Survey, September 2019| 33

Ketimpangan Ekonomi Dibingkai secara Partisan
 POST-TRUTH

 Are we living in a post-truth era?

 How is populism contected to post-truth?
Post-Truth Politics