(1)
Y 2 i= 0 + 1 X 2 i + 2 X 3 i+ 3 X 4 i + 4 X 5i + 5 Y 1i +u 2i
(2)
(1)
(2)
k
2
4
M
2
2
K-k
5-2
5-4
m-1
2-1
2-1
Identifikasi
Overidentified
Exactly Identified
(2)
Y 1i
Y 2i
X1i
X2i
X3i
0
2
X4 i
0
X5i
0
A
2 3 4
1
Identifikasi
Overidentified
Exactly Identified
Dari tabel di atas, memberikan kesimpulan yang sama dengan metode order.
4.2. Metode Persamaan Simultan dan Analisis
1. Persamaan-1 (Pertumbuhan Ekonomi) dengan Two Stage Least Square (2SLS)
Langkah-langkah metode 2SLS sebagai berikut
a. Uji Hausman
untuk
d. Analisis
Secara Bersama-sama Ketiga Variabel
Bila dilihat secara bersama-sama pengaruh variabel pengangguran
(X1), investasi (X2), dan kemiskinan (Y2) terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi
(3)
(4)
dengan
0=
0+ 3 0
;
(1 3 5)
1=
1
;
(1 3 5 )
2=
2+ 3 1
;
(1 3 5 )
3=
3 2
;
(1 3 5)
4=
3 3
;
(1 3 5 )
5=
3 4
;
(1 3 5)
6=
0 + 0 5
;
(1 3 5)
7=
1 5
;
(1 3 5)
8=
1+ 2 5
;
(1 3 5)
9=
2
;
(1 3 5)
10=
3
;
(1 3 5 )
11=
4
(1 3 5)
sehingga
3=
3
;
9
5=
7
;
1
0= 0 3 6 ;
2= 2 3 8
Tidak dapat dilakukan uji asumsi dalam model ILS. Hal tersebut
disebabkan karena model ILS diperoleh secara tidak langsung dari persamaan
reduced form.
LAMPIRAN
Lampiran 1. Uji Hausman (Y1)
Dependent Variable: Y1_PDRB
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/26/15 Time: 22:19
Sample: 1 33
Included observations: 33
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
X1_TPT
X2_INVESTASI
Y2_EST
RESID_Y2
-1.607786
0.252980
0.000740
0.443400
-0.082892
3.384499
0.331990
0.000777
0.151671
0.121649
-0.475044
0.762012
0.952651
2.923435
-0.681402
0.6384
0.4524
0.3489
0.0068
0.5012
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.246800
0.139200
4.175929
488.2747
-91.28208
2.293681
0.084258
6.827166
4.500927
5.835278
6.062021
5.911570
2.271398
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
X1_TPT
X2_INVESTASI
Y2_ESTIMATE
-1.606879
0.252825
0.000740
0.443403
3.352778
0.328899
0.000770
0.150260
-0.479268
0.768701
0.961771
2.950910
0.6353
0.4483
0.3441
0.0062
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
J-statistic
Prob(J-statistic)
0.234329
0.155121
4.137130
2.958299
0.048745
9.090825
0.010616
6.827166
4.500927
496.3595
2.267070
496.3656
6
Series: Residuals
Sample 1 33
Observations 33
16
12
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
2.91e-15
-0.120922
13.98781
-12.31097
3.938478
0.360065
8.611980
Jarque-Bera
Probability
44.01774
0.000000
0
-10
-5
10
15
5.577210
Prob. Chi-Square(2)
0.0615
8.720864
15.65129
46.00296
Prob. F(3,29)
Prob. Chi-Square(3)
Prob. Chi-Square(3)
0.0003
0.0013
0.0000
Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
(Constant)
Std. Error
-1,610
3,353
X1
,253
,329
X2
,001
Y2
,444
a. Dependent Variable: y1
Standardized
Coefficients
Sig.
Beta
Collinearity
Statistics
Tolerance
VIF
-,480
,635
,143
,769
,448
,758
1,319
,001
,193
,962
,344
,657
1,523
,150
,549 2,952
,006
,764
1,309
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
X2_INVESTASI
X3_AHH
X4_AMH
X5_MYS
Y1_EST
RESID_Y1
200.9986
-0.001453
-1.686091
-1.067898
4.470023
-0.321842
-0.286643
88.10617
0.001309
0.787658
0.849852
2.074919
1.638506
0.360335
2.281323
-1.110085
-2.140638
-1.256569
2.154313
-0.196424
-0.795491
0.0310
0.2771
0.0419
0.2201
0.0407
0.8458
0.4335
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.469989
0.347679
6.651750
1150.390
-105.4222
3.842603
0.007087
14.42909
8.235791
6.813468
7.130909
6.920278
1.810903
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
X1_TPT
X2_INVESTASI
X3_AHH
X4_AMH
X5_MYS
39.68047
0.325638
-0.000158
0.187718
-0.517476
0.001576
28.36116
0.284967
0.000751
0.402839
0.140820
1.108263
1.399113
1.142721
-0.210138
0.465988
-3.674745
0.001422
0.1732
0.2632
0.8351
0.6450
0.0010
0.9989
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.474339
0.376995
3.552612
340.7684
-85.34745
4.872787
0.002641
6.827166
4.500927
5.536209
5.808301
5.627760
1.552390
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
X1_TPT
X2_INVESTASI
X3_AHH
X4_AMH
X5_MYS
188.2278
-0.104804
-0.001402
-1.746507
-0.901352
4.469516
52.73982
0.529920
0.001396
0.749111
0.261865
2.060903
3.568988
-0.197774
-1.004545
-2.331441
-3.442046
2.168717
0.0014
0.8447
0.3240
0.0274
0.0019
0.0391
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.457090
0.356551
6.606364
1178.389
-105.8190
4.546392
0.003893
14.42909
8.235791
6.776910
7.049002
6.868460
1.881999