DefinisiROC

ReceiverOperatingCharacteristic(ROC)kurvaadalahcarayangbergunauntuk

menafsirkansensitivitasdanspesifisitastingkatdanuntukmenentukannilaicutterkait.

KurvaROCadalahgeneralisasidarihimpunankombinasipotensialsensitivitasdan

spesifisitasmungkinbagiprediktor(Pepe,Janes,Longton,Leisenring,&Newcomb,

2004).KurvaROCanalisistidakhanyamemberikaninformasitentangnilaicut,tetapi

jugamenyediakanskalaumumalamiuntukmembandingkanprediktoryangberbeda

yangdiukurdalamunityangberbeda,sedangkanrasiooddsdalamanalisisregresi

logistikharusditafsirkansesuaidenganpeningkatanunitdalamnilaiprediktor,yang

dapatmembuatperbandinganantaraprediktorsulit(Pepe,etal.,2004).Sebuah

indikasikeseluruhanakurasidiagnostikkurvaROCadalahareadibawahkurva(AUC).

NilaiAUClebihdekatke1menunjukkanukuranskriningandalmembedakanantara

siswadengankinerjamembacamemuaskandantidakmemuaskan,sedangkannilainilai

di.50menunjukkanprediktortersebuttidaklebihbaikdarikesempatan(Zhou,

Obuchowski,&Obuschowski,2002).

MenghitungROCCurvediSPSS

UntukmenghitungkurvaROCdiSPSS(ay16),prosedurberikutharusdiikuti:

1.MengukurskriningAndaharusmenggunakannilaistandar

2.UkuranhasilAndaharusrecodedmenjadivariabeldikotomis"Tidakberisiko""0"

,dan"AtRisk""1"

3.Dibawahmenuatasopsi"Analisis",pilih"ROCCurve"

4.AndaakanmemilikikotakdialogyangmengatakanROCCurve.Dalamkotakini,

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AndaharusmenyeretmengukurskriningAndakekotakyangmengatakan"TestVariable

".AndaharusmenyeretvariabelhasildichotomizedAndake"NegaraVariabel"kotak.

5.Padakotakyangmemintauntuk"NilaiNegaraVariable",menempatkan"1"

(Andamencobauntukmemprediksiyanganakanakberesiko).

6.Padakotakberlabel"Display"memeriksapilihanuntuk"ROCCurve""dengan

garisDiagonalreferensi"dan"StandarKesalahandanConfidenceInterval"

7.DisudutkananataskotakdialogCurveROC,Andaakanmelihatkata"Options"

klikdiatasnya.

8.Sebuahkotakdialogbaruharusterbukayangdisebut"ROCCurveAnalysis;

Options".Dalamkotakini,dibawah"TestDirection"pilihopsiyangsesuai.Anda

mungkinakanperlumemilih"hasiltesyanglebihkecilmenunjukkantesyanglebih

positif"iniberartibahwaskoryanglebihrendahpadainstrumenlayarberartisiswa

lebihmungkinberadapadarisiko.

9.Pilih"Lanjutkan"danAndaharuskembalikekotakdialogCurveROC,pilih"Ok"

dananalisisakanberjalan.

10.Statistikbungaakan:

a.PengolahanRingkasanKasusinimemberikantotalN,sertajumlahsiswaberesiko

dantidakberesiko

b.ROCCurveGraphmemberikangambaranvisualdariutilitasskriningukuranitu

c.LokasiBerdasarkantabelCurvemenyediakanAUCbersamadenganstandarderror

&confidenceinterval

MenghitungROCCurvediExcel

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UntukmenghitungkurvaROCmenggunakanExcel,berkonsultasidengansitusberikut

untukmendownloadtemplate:http://www.analyse

it.com/products/method_evaluation/roc.aspx?gclid=COba5eWAw5cCFRxNagodZ3sxSw

Referensi

Pepe,M.,Janes,H.,Longton,G.,Leisenring,W.&Newcomb,P.(2004).

keterbatasan

rasiooddsdalammengukurkinerjasuatudiagnostik,prognostik,ataupenandascreening

.AmericanJournalofEpidemiology,159,882890.

Zhou,XH,Obuchowski,NA,&Obushcowski,DM(2002).Metodestatistikdalam

kedokterandiagnostik.Wiley&Sons:NewYork.

ReceiverOperatingCharacteristic(ROC)curvesareausefulwaytointerpret

sensitivityandspecificitylevelsandtodeterminerelatedcutscores.ROCcurvesarea

generalizationofthesetofpotentialcombinationsofsensitivityandspecificitypossible

forpredictors(Pepe,Janes,Longton,Leisenring,&Newcomb,2004).ROCcurve

analysesnotonlyprovideinformationaboutcutscores,butalsoprovideanatural

commonscaleforcomparingdifferentpredictorsthataremeasuredindifferentunits,

whereastheoddsratioinlogisticregressionanalysismustbeinterpretedaccordingtoa

unitincreaseinthevalueofthepredictor,whichcanmakecomparisonbetween

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predictorsdifficult(Pepe,etal.,2004).Anoverallindicationofthediagnosticaccuracy

ofaROCcurveistheareaunderthecurve(AUC).AUCvaluescloserto1indicatethe

screeningmeasurereliablydistinguishesamongstudentswithsatisfactoryand

unsatisfactoryreadingperformance,whereasvaluesat.50indicatethepredictorisno

betterthanchance(Zhou,Obuchowski,&Obuschowski,2002).

ComputeaROCCurveinSPSS

TocomputeaROCcurveinSPSS(v.16),thefollowingproceduresshouldbe

followed:

1. Yourscreeningmeasureshoulduseastandardscore

2. YouroutcomemeasureshouldberecodedintoadichotomousvariableofNotat

risk0,andAtRisk1

3. UnderthetopmenuoptionAnalysis,selectROCCurve

4. YouwillhaveadialogboxthatsaysROCCurve.Inthisbox,youshoulddrag

yourscreeningmeasuretotheboxthatsaysTestVariable.Youshoulddrag

yourdichotomizedoutcomevariableintotheStateVariablebox.

5. IntheboxthatasksfortheValueoftheStateVariable,put1(youare

tryingtopredictwhichkidsareatrisk).

6. IntheboxlabeledDisplaychecktheoptionsforROCCurvewithDiagonal

referencelineandStandardErrorandConfidenceInterval

7. IntheupperrightcorneroftheROCCurvedialogbox,youllseetheword

Optionsclickonit.

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 8. AnewdialogboxshouldopencalledROCCurveAnalysis;Options.Inthis

box,underTestDirectionselecttheappropriateoption.Youwilllikelyneedto

selectSmallertestresultindicatesmorepositivetestthismeansthatalower

scoreonthescreeninstrumentmeansthestudentismorelikelytobeatrisk.

9. SelectContinueandyoushouldbereturnedtotheROCCurvedialogbox,

selectOkandtheanalysiswillrun.

10. Thestatisticsofinterestwillbe:

a. CaseProcessingSummarythisgivesthetotalN,aswellasthenumber

ofstudentsatriskandnotatrisk

b. ROCCurveGraphgivesavisualdepictionofthescreeningmeasures

utility

c. AreaUndertheCurvetableprovidestheAUCalongwiththestandard

error&confidenceinterval

ComputeaROCCurveinExcel

TocomputeaROCcurveusingExcel,consultthefollowingwebsitetodownloada

template:http://www.analyseit.com/products/method_evaluation/roc.aspx?

gclid=COba5eWAw5cCFRxNagodZ3sxSw

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References
Pepe, M., Janes, H., Longton, G., Leisenring, W. & Newcomb, P. (2004). Limitations of

the odds ratio in gauging the performance of a diagnostic, prognostic, or screening

marker. American Journal of Epidemiology, 159, 882-890.

Zhou, X. H., Obuchowski, N. A., & Obushcowski, D. M. (2002). Statistical methods in

diagnostic medicine. Wiley & Sons: New York.