NUCLEAR STRATEGY

o Hakikat strategi dlm kondisi deadlock

o Muncul pd 1960an colin gray
o Maritim kebebasan untuk menjelajah dll, tp terus bergeser ke strategi nuklir
o Varian strategi extremes, dlm maritim
o Kepemilikan nuklir jadi alat untuk mencapai kepentingan politik
o Dilemma negara2 pemilik.non pemilik nulir takut ada negara2 yang break the status quo, bcs if that happens
bukan lagi perang yang dihadapi tp nuclear war mutually assured destruction baik ygg ikut2 atau nggak
o Nuclear war strategy deadlock. Kalo pecahkan deadlock dua2nya tersakiti
o Deadlock no other option, gaada yg bisa dilakukan
o (Colin Gray) ada dua era nuklir
o 1945-1989 post WW II, beginning of CW
Intl order bipolar. Dua kekuatan yg simetris
Dua2nya punya kapabilitas nuklir yg sama
How to prevent both US dan SU supaya ga perang
How to deal w/ permasalahan proliferasi nuklir
Strateginya u/ menghadapi kedua hal tsb supaya ga pecah perang nuklir
Deterrence : discouraging an action w/ doubt n fear
Restraint
Ga cukup hanya deterrence tp restraint jg penting
1961 Cuban Missile Crisis. AS menempatkan senjata nuklir di periphery Uni Soviet,
akhirnya Soviet mengirim senjata nuklir ke negara komunis terdekat dgn amerika
(Cuba). Kennedy had 2 options which is menyerang kapal soviet sblm sampe ke Cuba
atau mendemokratisasi Cuba. Kennedy wanted to take a 3rd option. Akhirnya nothing
happened bcs uni soviet pun gaada niat untuk start shit n stuff Cuma send missiles
(praktek restraint & deterrence)

o 1989 post wold war 2nd nuclear age

No longer bipolar, multipolar. AS gaada saingan yg simetris lagi, munncul banyak kekuatan2
asimetris
Axis of evil refers to negara2 yg berpotensi mengganggu stabilitas dan perdamaian dunia. Bcs
ga demokratis, anti US, punya nuklir (i.e. North Korea, Iran, Afghan, Iraq, Cuba)
Issues to address
Ga lagi bisa hny deterrence dan restraint krn the powers arent symmetrical no more.
Konteks tidak lagi rasional spt prev nuclear age but irrational
Strateginya (John Ingleberry)
o Preemptive strike sudah kelihatan bahayanya so we attack before they do us
o Preventive strike

INSURGENCY STRATEGY

o Muncul pola2 baru dlm strategi, jadi relevan post 1990

o Situasi asimetris how pihak yg kecil bisa merespon sesuatu yg besar. Aktor kecil bisa melawan hegemon
o Situasi yg tidak dpt dipungkiri post 90s banyak org ingin membuat perubahan menentang globalisasi, US, etc
(terrorists)
 o Marx (to some extent) muncul dgn counterargument yg asimetris-ish kalo mau melawan yg lebih besar, dont
play at the big guys game tp buat game baru n lure them in. proletariat revolution bukan bourgeouisie yg
digerakkan bcs if so tetap dlm sistem kapitalistik
o Irregularity, not just abt power but also RME munculnya irregular warfare (asimetrik) dan PoMo warfare
(perang tidak lagi mengandalkan physical things tp jg cybernetics instruments, cyber strategy, social media
strategy etc. dan hal2 lain yg unprecedented dlm strategy) memunculkan insurgency strategy
o Insurgent strategy, principles
o Is not played by the rules of the war, aturan2 perang yg umum
o Tactics menggunakan cara2 militan
o Tidak boleh ada center of gravity yg obvious divide into, say, terrorist cells
o Tidak menggunakan soldiers soldiers identic dan terikat dgn aturan2 dan moral codes
menggunakan militia the masses
o Bentuk2 insurgency strategies
o Terrorism creation, exploitation dan spread of fear, threat or violence for political ends. Snowball
effect dont have to do something big instantly, just small little things in the right time n place that
can snowball into something hella huge. Ex: 9/11. Ga pake soldier atau deklarasi perang or anything, just
20 ppl some planes and the right target bisa merubah tatanan internasional
o Insurgencies protracted struggles conducted methodically, step by step, in order to overthrow
existing order. Biasanya dilakukan dalam negara. Strategi insurgency kalo berhasil biasanya bs
bertransisi jd regular warfare. Ex: Syria. Awalnya pemberontakan biasa tp seiring waktu insurgentnya
jadi punya macem2 sumber daya dan bisa wage regular war to their govt. Vietcong. US kalah di Vietnam
not bcs theyre overpowered or anything. Perang pertama yg mendapat media coverage dr reporter. US
sudah ga percaya sm pemerintahannya, ho chi minh mengambil alih several symbolic points to US yg
mendapat media coverage, jadi mencipatakn image kalo Vietnam has taken over
o Guerilla berfokus pd serangan2 dan perang dengan menekankan pd element of surprise. Somehow
similar to terrorists

STRATEGI MEDIA

o Situasi hegemoni ability of one/two player to exact discoursive influence

o Discoursive power borne of control over discourse
o Giver of influence is
o Dominasi dan penguasaan beda. Menguasai control but dont influence, dominasi control and influence
o Discoursive power hadir dlm simbolisasi media
o Media shapes or lives, kita tau apapun dari media y
o Idea power. War of ideas gak lagi so physical. The goal is to cut the enemys will to fight
o Psychological warfare
o Offensive like joseph Goebbels. Mengub
o Defensive
o Strateginya dlm HI
o Public diplomacy how we involve the masses dan elemen2 di dalamnya to achieve the end of policy.
Most important how countries set ideas/agendas and incite discourse
o Soft power
STRATEGI BISNIS

o Kenichi Ohmae (blue-red ocean) n Michael Porter (diamond of nat advantage)

o Porter : there are 4 factors yg memengaruhi industri
o Kondisi kondisi menjelaskan how industry must respond/memiliki kekuasaan atas faktor produksi.
o Rivalitas mengetahui rivalitas in their field
o Supportive industries industri pendukung apa yg harus dikuasai u/ memajukan industri sendiri
o Demand characteristic memerhatikan permintaan di pasar
o rg