27 Oktober 2022

Daily Outlook
GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | O I L |

Counter News Trend Support Resistance

EURUSD – Euro kembali di atas paritas dengan greenback
untuk pertama kalinya dalam satu bulan, setelah USD
melemah lebih dari 1% terhadap sejumlah mata uang lainnya
EURUSD pada hari Rabu karena data ekonomi yang melemah  0.9985 1.0130
memperkuat pandangan bahwa Federal Reserve akan
memperlambat laju siklus kenaikan suku bunganya.
Resistance di 1.0130, support di 0.9985
USDJPY – Harga menguat setelah USD turun lebih dari 1%
karena imbal hasil Treasury AS terus turun dan data ekonomi
AS yang lebih lemah memperkuat ekspektasi bahwa Federal
USDJPY Reserve akan memperlambat laju siklus kenaikan suku  145.58 147.78
bunganya. Fokus hari ini pada keputusan kebijakan suku
bunga Bank Sentral Eropa dan rilis data GDP AS. Resistance
147.78, support 145.58
USDCHF – Harga turun setelah USD melemah lebih dari 1%
terhadap sejumlah mata uang lainnya pada hari Rabu karena
data ekonomi yang melemah memperkuat pandangan
USDCHF bahwa Federal Reserve akan memperlambat laju siklus
 0.9818 0.9928
kenaikan suku bunganya. Resistance utama 0.9928, support
0.9818
GBPUSD – Sterling mencapai tertinggi baru sejak 13
September, melonjak 1,33%, memperpanjang kenaikan 1,6%
pada hari sebelumnya ketika pasar mengambil hati dari
terpilihnya Rishi Sunak menjadi perdana menteri Inggris
GBPUSD serta diperkuat oleh USD melemah lebih dari 1% karena data
 1.1488 1.1696
ekonomi yang melemah memperkuat pandangan bahwa
Federal Reserve akan memperlambat laju siklus kenaikan
suku bunganya. Resistance utama 1.1696, support 1.1488
AUDUSD – Harga naik meskipun data menunjukkan inflasi di
Australia naik ke level tertinggi dalam 32 tahun terakhir
karena melonjaknya biaya pembangunan rumah dan gas
serta USD melemah karena imbal hasil Treasury AS terus
AUDUSD turun dan data ekonomi AS yang lebih lemah memperkuat  0.6405 0.6544
ekspektasi bahwa Federal Reserve akan memperlambat laju
siklus kenaikan suku bunganya. Fokus hari ini pada
keputusan kebijakan suku bunga oleh Bank Sentral Eropa
dan rilis data GDP AS. Resistance 0.6544, support 0.6405
XAUUSD – Harga emas naik ke level tertinggi dalam dua
minggu karena penurunan dolar dan imbal hasil Treasury AS
di tengah ekspektasi Federal Reserve akan memperlambat
laju kenaikan suku bunga yang agresif mulai bulan  1651.13 1676.27
XAUUSD Desember. Fokus hari ini pada rilis data GDP AS untuk
petunjuk lebih lanjut tentang jalur kenaikan suku bunga
Federal Reserve. Resistance 1676.27, support 1651.13

Oil – Harga minyak melonjak hampir 3% didukung oleh rekor

ekspor minyak mentah AS dan penyulingan di AS yang
CLc1 (WTI) beroperasi pada tingkat yang lebih tinggi dari biasanya untuk  85.52 89.74
sepanjang tahun ini, pelemahan dolar turut mendukung
harga. Resistance 89.74, support 85.52

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 27 Oktober 2022

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

FORECAS
DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL PREV. REV.
T
21-Oct - 31-Oct N/A CN Exports YoY CNY Sep 11.3% 11.8% --
21-Oct - 31-Oct N/A CN Imports YoY CNY Sep 8.4% 4.6% --
21-Oct - 31-Oct N/A CN Trade Balance CNY Sep 564.30b 535.91b --
Mon/24-Oct-22 All NZ Bank Holiday (Labor Day)
05:00 AU S&P Global Australia PMI Composite Oct P 49.6 -- 50.9 --
05:00 AU S&P Global Australia PMI Services Oct P 49 -- 50.6 --
05:00 AU S&P Global Australia PMI Mfg Oct P 52.8 -- 53.5 --
05:05 AU RBA's Kent-Speech
07:30 JP Jibun Bank Japan PMI Services Oct P 53 -- 52.2 --
07:30 JP Jibun Bank Japan PMI Composite Oct P 51.7 -- 51 --
07:30 JP Jibun Bank Japan PMI Mfg Oct P 50.7 -- 50.8 --
08:45 CN Industrial Production YoY Sep 6.3% 4.5% 4.2% --
08:45 CN GDP SA QoQ 3Q 3.9% 3.5% -2.6% -2.7%
08:45 CN GDP YoY 3Q 3.9% 3.4% 0.4% --
08:45 CN Retail Sales YoY Sep 2.5% 3.3% 5.4% --
08:45 CN Surveyed Jobless Rate Sep 5.5% 5.2% 5.3% --
09:00 CN Trade Balance Sep $84.74b $81b $79.39b --
09:00 CN Exports YoY Sep 5.7% 4.1% 7.1% --
09:00 CN Imports YoY Sep 0.3% 1% 0.3% --
09:00 CN Industrial Production YTD YoY Sep 3.9% 3.7% 3.6% --
09:00 CN GDP YTD YoY 3Q 3% 3% 2.5% --
09:00 CN Retail Sales YTD YoY Sep 0.71% 0.9% 0.5% 0.48%
14:30 DE S&P Global/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Oct P 45.7 47 47.8 --
14:30 DE S&P Global Germany Services PMI Oct P 44.9 44.7 45 --
14:30 DE S&P Global Germany Composite PMI Oct P 44.1 45.3 45.7 --
15:00 EZ S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct P 46.6 47.8 48.4 --
15:00 EZ S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI Oct P 48.2 48.2 48.8 --
15:00 EZ S&P Global Eurozone Composite PMI Oct P 47.1 47.5 48.1 --
15:30 GB S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI Oct P 45.8 48 48.4 --
15:30 GB S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI Oct P 47.5 49 50 --
15:30 GB S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite PMI Oct P 47.2 48.1 49.1 --
20:45 US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI Oct P 49.9 51 52 --
20:45 US S&P Global US Services PMI Oct P 46.6 49.2 49.3 --
20:45 US S&P Global US Composite PMI Oct P 47.3 -- 49.5 --
Tue/25-Oct-22 13:00 JP Machine Tool Orders YoY Sep F -- 4.3% --
15:00 DE IFO Business Climate Oct 84.3 83.3 84.4 --
15:00 DE IFO Current Assessment Oct 94.1 92.4 94.5 --
15:00 DE IFO Expectations Oct 75.6 75 75.3 --
15:30 AU Australia-Budget
15:30 HK Exports YoY Sep -9.1% -- -14.3% --
15:30 HK Imports YoY Sep -7.8% -- -16.3% --
15:30 HK Trade Balance HKD Sep H$-44.9b -- H$-13.3b --
15:55 GB BOE's Huw Pill speaks
17:00 GB CBI Business Optimism Oct -48 -- -21 --
20:00 US FHFA House Price Index MoM Aug -0.7% -0.7% -0.6% --
20:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA Aug -1.6% -0.7% -0.44% -0.8%
20:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA Aug 13.1% 14.4% 16.06% 16%
20:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA Aug 11.9% -- 15.77% 13.9%
21:00 US Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Oct 102.5 106.5 108 107.8
21:00 US Conf. Board Present Situation Oct -- 149.6 --
21:00 US Conf. Board Expectations Oct -- 80.3 --
Wed/26-Oct-22 00:55 US Fed’s Waller Discusses FedNow
06:50 JP PPI Services YoY Sep 2.1% 2.1% 1.9% 2%
07:00 NZ ANZ Activity Outlook Oct -2.5% -- -1.8% --
07:00 NZ ANZ Business Confidence Oct -42.7 -- -36.7 --
07:30 AU CPI YoY Sep 7.3% 7% 6.1% --
07:30 AU CPI Core YoY Sep -- -- --

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 27 Oktober 2022

07:30 AU CPI QoQ 3Q 1.8% 1.6% 1.8% --

07:30 AU CPI YoY 3Q 7.3% 7% 6.1% --
07:30 AU CPI Trimmed Mean QoQ 3Q 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% --
07:30 AU CPI Trimmed Mean YoY 3Q 6.1% 5.6% 4.9% --
07:30 AU CPI Weighted Median QoQ 3Q 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% --
07:30 AU CPI Weighted Median YoY 3Q 5% 4.8% 4.2% --
12:00 JP Leading Index CI Aug F 101.3 -- 100.9 98.9
12:00 JP Coincident Index Aug F 101.8 -- 101.7 100.1
19:30 US Advance Goods Trade Balance Sep $-92.22b $-87.8b $-87.3b $-87.28b
19:30 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Sep P 0.8% 1% 1.3% 1.4%
19:30 US Retail Inventories MoM Sep -0.1% -- 1.4% 0.7%
21:00 CA Bank of Canada Rate Decision 26-Oct 3.75% 4% 3.25% --
21:00 CA Bank of Canada Releases Monetary Policy Report
21:00 US New Home Sales Sep 603k 585k 685k 677k
21:00 US New Home Sales MoM Sep -10.9% -13.9% 28.8% 24.7%
21:30 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 21-Oct 2588k 1029k -1725k --
21:30 US DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory 21-Oct 667k -- 583k --
21:30 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories 21-Oct -1478k -805k -114k --
21:30 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory 21-Oct 17k -1138k 124k --
21:30 US DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization 21-Oct -0.6% 0.3% -0.4% --
Bank of Canada's Macklem Speaks to Reporters After
22:00
CA Decision
Thu/27-Oct-22 07:30 AU Export Price Index QoQ 3Q -6.5% 10.1% --
07:30 AU Import Price Index QoQ 3Q 0.8% 4.3% --
08:30 CN Industrial Profits YTD YoY Sep -- -2.1% --
08:30 CN Industrial Profits YoY Sep -- -- --
13:00 DE GfK Consumer Confidence Nov -41.3 -42.5 --
18:00 CA CFIB Business Barometer Oct -- 52.5 --
19:15 EZ ECB Main Refinancing Rate 27-Oct 2.00% 1.25% --
19:15 EZ ECB Marginal Lending Facility 27-Oct 2.25% 1.50% --
19:15 EZ ECB Deposit Facility Rate 27-Oct 1.50% 0.75% --
19:30 CA Payroll Employment Change - SEPH Aug -- 12.9k --
19:30 US GDP Annualized QoQ 3Q A 2.3% -0.6% --
19:30 US Durable Goods Orders Sep P 0.6% -0.2% --
19:30 US Personal Consumption 3Q A 0.8% 2% --
19:30 US Durables Ex Transportation Sep P 0.2% 0.3% --
19:30 US GDP Price Index 3Q A 5.3% 9% --
19:30 US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Sep P -0.2% 1.4% --
19:30 US Core PCE QoQ 3Q A 4.5% 4.7% --
19:30 US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Sep P -- 0.4% --
19:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 22-Oct -- 214k --
19:30 US Continuing Claims 15-Oct -- 1385k --
19:45 EZ ECB President Christine Lagarde Holds Press Conference
22:30 GB BOE's Sam Woods speaks
Fri/28-Oct-22 N/A JP BOJ Policy Balance Rate 28-Oct -0.10% -0.10% --
N/A JP BOJ 10-Yr Yield Target 28-Oct 0.00% 0.00% --
N/A JP BOJ CPI Current Forecast 4Q -- 2.3% --
N/A JP BOJ CPI Current Forecast +1 4Q -- 1.4% --
N/A JP BOJ CPI Current Forecast +2 4Q -- 1.3% --
N/A JP BOJ GDP Current Forecast 4Q -- 2.4% --
N/A JP BOJ GDP Current Forecast +1 4Q -- 2% --
N/A JP BOJ GDP Current Forecast +2 4Q -- 1.3% --
04:00 NZ ANZ Consumer Confidence Index Oct -- 85.4 --
04:00 NZ ANZ Consumer Confidence MoM Oct -- 0.0% --
06:30 JP Tokyo CPI YoY Oct 3.4% 2.8% --
06:30 JP Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY Oct 3.2% 2.8% --
06:30 JP Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food, Energy YoY Oct 2% 1.7% --
06:30 JP Jobless Rate Sep 2.5% 2.5% --
06:30 JP Job-To-Applicant Ratio Sep 1.33 1.32 --
07:30 AU PPI YoY 3Q -- 5.6% --
07:30 AU PPI QoQ 3Q -- 1.4% --
14:00 CH KOF Leading Indicator Oct 92.5 93.8 --
15:00 EZ ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
15:00 DE GDP SA QoQ 3Q P -0.1% 0.1% --
15:00 DE GDP NSA YoY 3Q P -- 1.8% --

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 27 Oktober 2022

15:00 DE GDP WDA YoY 3Q P 0.8% 1.7% --

16:00 EZ Economic Confidence Oct -- 93.7 --
16:00 EZ Industrial Confidence Oct -- -0.4 --
16:00 EZ Services Confidence Oct -- 4.9 --
16:00 EZ Consumer Confidence Oct F -- -- --
19:00 DE CPI MoM Oct P 0.6% 1.9% --
19:00 DE CPI YoY Oct P 10.1% 10% --
19:00 DE CPI EU Harmonized MoM Oct P 0.4% 2.2% --
19:00 DE CPI EU Harmonized YoY Oct P 10.9% 10.9% --
19:30 CA GDP MoM Aug 0.0% 0.1% --
19:30 CA GDP YoY Aug 3.7% 4.3% --
19:30 US Employment Cost Index 3Q 1.2% 1.3% --
19:30 US Personal Income Sep 0.3% 0.3% --
19:30 US Personal Spending Sep 0.4% 0.4% --
19:30 US Real Personal Spending Sep -- 0.1% --
19:30 US PCE Deflator MoM Sep 0.3% 0.3% --
19:30 US PCE Deflator YoY Sep 6.3% 6.2% --
19:30 US PCE Core Deflator MoM Sep 0.5% 0.6% --
19:30 US PCE Core Deflator YoY Sep 5.2% 4.9% --
21:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM Sep -5.3% -2% --
21:00 US Pending Home Sales NSA YoY Sep -- -22.5% --
21:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Oct F 59.6 59.8 --
21:00 US U. of Mich. Current Conditions Oct F -- 65.3 --
21:00 US U. of Mich. Expectations Oct F -- 56.2 --
21:00 US U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation Oct F -- 5.1% --
21:00 US U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation Oct F -- 2.9% --
Sat/29-Oct-22 00:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count 28-Oct -- -- --

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EUR/USD
Interest Rate: 0.50% (EU)/ 3.00%-3.25% (US)

1.02758
RESISTANCE 1.01819
1.01308
0.99858
SUPPORT 0.98919
@researchvaf
@rekhmen 0.98408
BUY 1.0050
SELL ---
SUGGESTION S/L 0.9990

1.0150
T/P:
1.0200

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Oct 26 0.99647 1.00879 0.99429 145,0 1.00798  115,1 0.99647

WEEKLY OCTOBER 2022

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
1.00879 (26/Oct) 0.98059 (24/Oct) 1.00879 (26/Oct) 0.96309 (13/Oct) 1.14941 (10/Feb) 0.95351 (28/Sep)
All price & chart based on Valbury MT4 Platform

USDJPY
Interest Rate: 3.00%-3.25% (US)/-0.10% (JP)
149.979
RESISTANCE 149.191
147.784
145.589
SUPPORT 144.801
143.394

@researchvaf
BUY ---
@rekhmen SUGGESTION
SELL 146.60
S/L 147.75
145.60
T/P:
144.80

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Oct 26 148.086 148.403 146.208 219,5 146.377  170,9 148.086

WEEKLY OCTOBER 2022

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
149.699 (24/Oct) 145.495 (24/Oct) 151.933 (21/Oct) 143.521 (05/Oct) 151.933 (21/Oct) 113.463 (24/Jan)

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GBP/USD
Interest Rate: 2.25% (GB)/ 3.00%-3.25% (US)
1.19042
RESISTANCE 1.17710
1.16963
1.14884
SUPPORT 1.13552
1.12805
@researchvaf
@rekhmen BUY 1.1590
SELL ---
SUGGESTION S/L 1.1520

1.1705
T/P:
1.1770

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Oct 26 1.14690 1.16377 1.14298 207,9 1.16217  152,7 1.14690

WEEKLY OCTOBER 2022

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
1.16377 (26/Oct) 1.12568 (24/Oct) 1.16377 (26/Oct) 1.09242 (12/Oct) 1.37477 (13/Jan) 1.03581 (26/Sep)
All price & chart based on Valbury MT4 Platform

USD/CHF
Interest Rate: 3.00%-3.25% (US)/ 0.50% (CH)
1.00390
RESISTANCE 1.00004
0.99288
0.98186
SUPPORT 0.97800
0.97084
@researchvaf
@rekhmen BUY ---
SELL 0.9880
SUGGESTION S/L 0.9930

0.9810
T/P:
0.9780

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Oct 26 0.99422 0.99617 0.98515 110,2 0.98573  88,9 0.99462

WEEKLY OCTOBER 2022

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
1.00307 (25/Oct) 0.98515 (26/Oct) 1.01468 (21/Oct) 0.97794 (06/Oct) 1.01468 (21/Oct) 0.90908 (13/Jan)

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AUD/USD
Interest Rate: 2.60% (AU)/ 3.00%-3.25% (US)
0.66828
RESISTANCE 0.65965
0.65440
0.64052
SUPPORT 0.63189
0.62664
@researchvaf
@rekhmen BUY 0.6475
SUGGESTION
SELL ---
S/L 0.6405

0.6545
T/P:
0.6595

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Oct 26 0.63890 0.65101 0.63713 138,8 0.64916  101,3 0.63903

WEEKLY OCTOBER 2022

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
0.65101 (26/Oct) 0.62716 (24/Oct) 0.65468 (04/Oct) 0.61692 (13/Oct) 0.76603 (05/Apr) 0.61692 (13/Oct)
All price & chart based on Valbury MT4 Platform

NZD/USD
Interest Rate: 3.50% (NZ)/ 3.00%-3.25% (US)
0.59929
RESISTANCE 0.59185
0.58731
0.57533
SUPPORT 0.56789
@researchvaf 0.56335
@rekhmen

BUY 0.5815
SUGGESTION
SELL ---
S/L 0.5755

0.5875
T/P:
0.5920

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Oct 26 0.57482 0.58442 0.57244 119,8 0.58276  76,0 0.57516

WEEKLY OCTOBER 2022

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
0.58442 (26/Oct) 0.56561 (24/Oct) 0.58442 (26/Oct) 0.55109 (13/Oct) 0.70331 (05/Apr) 0.55109 (13/Oct)

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USD/CAD
Interest Rate: 3.00%-3.25% (US)/ 3.75% (CA)
1.37766
RESISTANCE 1.37133
1.36335
1.34904
SUPPORT 1.34271
1.33473
@researchvaf
@rekhmen BUY ---
SELL 1.3570
SUGGESTION S/L 1.3635

1.3490
T/P:
1.3425

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Oct 26 1.36097 1.36499 1.35068 143,1 1.35538  55,9 1.36097

WEEKLY OCTOBER 2022

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
1.37732 (24/Oct) 1.35068 (26/Oct) 1.39768 (13/Oct) 1.35020 (04/Oct) 1.39768 (13/Oct) 1.24016 (05/Apr)
All price & chart based on Valbury MT4 Platform

EURJPY
Interest Rate: 0.50% (EU)/-0.10% (JP)
148.642
RESISTANCE 148.182
147.876
147.110
SUPPORT 146.650
146.344
@researchvaf
@rekhmen BUY 147.50
SUGGESTION
SELL ---
S/L 147.10

147.90
T/P:
148.20

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Oct 26 147.578 147.721 146.955 76,6 147.571 7 147.578

WEEKLY OCTOBER 2022

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
147.721 (26/Oct) 143.752 (24/Oct) 148.393 (21/Oct) 140.889 (10/Oct) 148.393 (21/Oct) 124.384 (07/Mar)

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GOLD (XAU/USD)
1701.41
RESISTANCE 1688.08
1676.27
1651.13
1637.80
@researchvaf SUPPORT 1625.99
@rekhmen

BUY 1662.00
SUGGESTION
SELL ---
S/L 1651.00

1676.00
T/P:
1688.00

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Oct 26 1652.28 1674.76 1649.62 25.14 1664.45  11.54 1652.91

WEEKLY OCTOBER 2022

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
1670.07 (24/Oct) 1638.10 (25/Oct) 1729.29 (04/Oct) 1617.12 (21/Oct) 2070.27 (08/Mar) 1614.69 (28/Sep)
All price & chart based on Valbury MT4 Platform

SILVER – XAG/USD
20.381
RESISTANCE 20.068
19.817
19.253
SUPPORT 18.940

@researchvaf
18.689
@rekhmen
BUY 19.50
SUGGESTION
SELL ---
S/L 19.25

19.80
T/P:
20.05

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Oct 26 19.314 19.755 19.191 0.564 19.566  0.246 19.320

WEEKLY OCTOBER 2022

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
19.659 (24/Oct) 18.767 (25/Oct) 21.216 (04/Oct) 18.065 (14/Oct) 26.927 (08/Mar) 17.536 (01/Sep)

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OIL WTI – CL-DEC/USD

(Exp. 17 November 2022)

93.96
RESISTANCE 91.18
89.74
85.52
SUPPORT 82.74

@researchvaf
81.30
@rekhmen
BUY 87.65
SELL ---
SUGGESTION
S/L 85.50

89.75
T/P:
91.20

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Oct 26 85.08 88.41 84.19 4.22 88.29  3.34 84.95

WEEKLY OCTOBER 2022

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
86.03 (25/Oct) 82.68 (24/Oct) 93.64 (10/Oct) 81.06 (03/Oct) 130.57 (07/Mar) 74.27 (03/Jan)
All price & chart based on Valbury MT4 Platform

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