Sorotan Berita dan Data

Riset Obligasi Harian

Pasar Obligasi – Suku Bunga - SUN

Samuel Research 19 November 2018

Indikator Pasar Obligasi Berita Obligasi

Penutupan Perubahan Bps  Konversi utang, Arpeni Pratama (APOL) minta restu pemegang
Data TerakhirS e be lum nya Harian YTD obligasi. Perusahaan pelayaran ini akan menggelar rapat umum
Obligasi Global 10 tahun (%)
Jepang 0.11 0.12 (0.5) 6
pemegang obligasi (RUPO) untuk meminta persetujuan pemegang
Jerman 0.58 0.60 (2.7) 13 obligasi atas opsi restrukturisasi yang ditawarkan APOL. (Kontan)
AS 3.14 3.18 0.4 71  PT Equity Finance rilis surat utang MTN Rp 28,5 miliar berbunga
Thailand 2.82 2.82 0.0 49
Malaysia 4.13 4.13 0.0 20
12,75%. tanggal jatuh tempo MTN bertenor tiga tahun ini di 16
India 7.76 7.80 0.0 48 November 2021. (Kontan)
Brazil 10.54 10.47 0.0 81
 Valbury Sekuritas terbitkan MTN berbunga 10,60%. MTN ini memiliki
Turki 17.00 16.91 0.0 501
LIBOR (%) nilai pokok Rp 50 miliar memiliki tenor 36 bulan. (Kontan)
1 bulan 2.31 2.31 0.00 153
3 bulan 2.61 2.61 0.00 162 Indeks dollar melemah rupiah diperkirakan bergerak menguat. dollar
12 bulan 3.13 3.13 0.00 145
JIBOR (%)
diperkirakan melemah terhadap mata uang kuat utama dunia lainya
ON 5.75 5.73 2.0 184 terutama euro setelah Perdana Menteri Italia Giuseppe Conte dikabarkan
1 bulan 7.08 7.07 7.3 7 akan berunding dengan komisi Uni Eropa untuk merundingkan deifist
3 bulan 7.52 7.52 7.3 7 anggaran Italia yang sebelumnya ditolak oleh komisi Uni Eropa. Pelemahan
6 bulan 7.64 7.64 7.3 7
dollar juga didorong oleh pernyataan Wakil Presiden AS Mike Pance yang
12 bulan 7.72 7.72 7.3 7
Indikator Selisih (bps)
menyerukan agar negara-negara Asia menolak pinjaman yang diberikan
SUN10y-UST10y 500 499 0.6 138 China dalam program China belt and road. Pernyataan Pance di APEC
SUN10y-BI rate 264 268 (3.6) 409 tersebut memperuncing tensi hubungan antara AS-China jelang KTT G-20
SUN10y-Jibor3m 62 66 (3.9) 191 minggu depan. Pelemahan dollar tersebut kemungkinan akan memperkuat
SUN10y-Inflation 498 502 (3.6) 701
Selisih Antar Tenor (bps)
rupiah hari ini. Rupiah diperkirakan bergerak menguat ke level
SUN5y-SUN3y 26.6 25.70 0.9 27 Rp14.500/USD-Rp 14.600/USD.
SUN10y-SUN5y 8.40 9.70 (1.3) 8
SUN20y-SUN10y 17.6 20.30 (2.7) (680) Yield US treasury turun. Yield US treasury jangka menengah (10 tahun)
Kurva Imbal Hasil SUN (%)
dan panjang turun sebesar 5 bps ke level 3.06% dan 3.31%. Turunya yield
3 tahun 7.789 7.821 0.0 0
5 tahun 8.055 8.078 0.0 0
US treasury tersebut didorong kekhawatiran investor melambatnya
10 tahun 8.139 8.175 0.0 0 pertumbuhan ekonomi AS di triwulan keempat. Data penjualan rumah baru
15 tahun 8.422 8.449 (2.7) 178 di AS tercatat mengalami penurunan 5,5% di bulan September
20 tahun 8.598 8.652 (5.4) 163 dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya.
30 tahun 9.226 9.227 (0.1) 214

Prediksi Makro Harga minyak tahan penurunan yield US treasury. Harga minyak Jumat
2018E 2019E
malam naik 0.46% (56.59 USD/barel) dan harga gas naik 1.98% (4.25
TW4 TW1 TW2 TW3 USD/MMBtu). Kenaikan harga minyak tersebut dipicu pembatasan
Inflasi Yo Y eo p 3.30 3.40 3.50 4.00 pengiriman minyak dari Saudi ke AS guna menurunkan stok minyak
BI RR rate 6.00 6.25 6.75 6.50 mentah di AS.
Rupiah eo p 14,900 15,000 15,200 15,300
Sumb er: Bloomb erg, SSI Research Team
Yield SUN diperkirakan bergerak turun. Yield SUN seri acuan 10 tahun
diperkirakan akan bergerak turun didorong oleh pelemahan yield US
treasury dan menguatnya rupiah. Yield SUN 10 tahun kemungkinan
bergerak di rentang 7.9%- 8.0%.

Rekomendasi Seri Obligasi Negara: FR0077; FR0078; FR0075; FR0074.

Kalender Ekonomi Global

Waktu (Jakarta) Negara Data dan Peristiwa Periode Survei Sebelumnya
11/19/2018 06:50 JN Trade Balance Oct -¥70.0b ¥131.3b
11/19/2018 06:50 JN Exports YoY Oct 0.089 -0.013
11/19/2018 06:50 JN Imports YoY Oct 14.10% 7.00%
11/19/2018 17:00 EC Construction Output YoY Sep -- 2.50%
JN= Jepang - US= Amerika Serikat - CH=Tiongkok - EC =Uni Eropa - ID=Indonesia - GE=Jerman

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 Riset Obligasi Harian
19 November 2018

Indikator Pasar Obligasi

Table 1. Pasokan SUN Chart 1. Kepemilikan SUN
Investor Asing Investor Domestik
120.0%

100.0%

80.0%
63.3% 63.1% 63.1% 63.1% 62.9% 62.9%
60.0%

40.0%

20.0% 36.7% 36.9% 36.9% 36.9% 37.1% 37.1%

0.0%
9/20/2018 9/24/2018 9/26/2018 9/28/2018 10/2/2018 10/4/2018
Sumber: Bloomberg Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia

Source: Company,Bloomberg, SSI Research Source: Company,Bloomberg, SSI Research

Chart 2. IGYC Chart 3. Perubahan IGYC

Yield (%) (bps)
10.00 4.00
2.80
9.50 3.00
Attractive zone
2.00 1.50 1.30
9.00 FR67 1.00
- - - - -
8.50 -
FR72 (1.00) (0.57)(0.60)
(0.80)
8.00 (1.00)
FR74 (2.00)
(2.10)
7.50 FR31 (3.00) (2.70)
FR59
FR61 (4.00) (3.30)
7.00 Not Attractive zone (4.10)
YTM (%) (5.00) (4.50)
(5.00)
6.50 Harga Wajar t (%) (6.00)
Imbal Hasil Wajar t-1 (%) (6.20)
(7.00)
6.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 15 16 18 20 30 31
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Tenor (Year) Tenor (Year)
Sumber: Bloomberg Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia

Source: Company,Bloomberg, SSI Research Source: Company,Bloomberg, SSI Research

Chart 4. Pasar Primer Chart 5. Asing di Pasar Sekunder

Source: Company,Bloomberg, SSI Research

Source: Company,Bloomberg, SSI Research

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 Riset Obligasi Harian
19 November 2018

Indonesian Government Bond Fair Yield Estimation

Jatuh Sisa Harga Imbal Hasil Harga Imbal Hasil Harga Wajar
Seri Tempo Waktu Kupon (%) (%) YTM (%) Wajar t (%) Wajar t (%) Wajar t-1 (%) t-1 (%) Status Durasi
FR0031 15-Nov-20 2.00 11.00 106.70 7.32 7.42 106.53 7.44 106.51 not attractive 1.77
FR0034 15-Jun-21 2.58 12.80 7.63 7.63 7.62 111.93 7.65 111.84 attractive 2.10
FR0053 15-Jul-21 2.67 8.25 101.27 7.71 7.64 101.42 7.68 101.33 attractive 2.28
FR0061 15-May-22 3.50 7.00 97.31 7.90 7.84 97.46 7.89 97.33 attractive 3.02
FR0035 15-Jun-22 3.58 12.90 114.73 8.07 7.86 115.46 7.90 115.31 attractive 2.76
FR0043 15-Jul-22 3.67 10.25 107.20 7.94 7.87 107.42 7.92 107.28 attractive 2.94
FR0063 15-May-23 4.50 5.63 91.28 7.97 7.96 91.30 8.01 91.14 attractive 3.84
FR0046 15-Jul-23 4.67 9.50 105.67 8.01 7.97 105.84 8.02 105.65 attractive 3.63
FR0039 15-Aug-23 4.75 11.75 114.05 8.11 7.98 114.65 8.03 114.45 attractive 3.59
FR0070 15-Mar-24 5.33 8.38 101.13 8.11 8.00 101.58 8.05 101.38 attractive 4.17
FR0044 15-Sep-24 5.84 10.00 108.44 8.15 8.02 109.07 8.05 108.90 attractive 4.36
FR0040 15-Sep-25 6.84 11.00 114.35 8.21 8.19 114.47 8.23 114.23 attractive 4.82
FR0037 15-Sep-26 7.84 12.00 120.99 8.29 8.22 121.48 8.26 121.23 attractive 5.22
FR0056 15-Sep-26 7.84 8.38 100.95 8.21 8.22 100.85 8.26 100.63 not attractive 5.59
FR0059 15-May-27 8.50 7.00 92.87 8.18 8.21 92.70 8.24 92.50 not attractive 6.20
FR0042 15-Jul-27 8.67 10.25 111.78 8.31 8.21 112.47 8.24 112.25 attractive 5.68
FR0047 15-Feb-28 9.26 10.00 110.65 8.32 8.16 111.76 8.20 111.48 attractive 6.00
FR0064 15-May-28 9.50 6.13 87.24 8.08 8.12 86.94 8.17 86.65 not attractive 6.88
FR0071 15-Mar-29 10.34 9.00 104.78 8.30 8.20 105.48 8.26 105.08 attractive 6.64
FR0052 15-Aug-30 11.76 10.50 114.59 8.51 8.83 112.02 8.84 111.96 not attractive 6.89
FR0073 15-May-31 12.50 8.75 103.15 8.34 8.68 100.52 8.68 100.52 not attractive 7.58
FR0054 15-Jul-31 12.67 9.50 108.49 8.40 8.59 106.88 8.59 106.88 not attractive 7.30
FR0074 15-Aug-32 13.76 7.50 92.62 8.41 8.39 92.83 8.40 92.75 not attractive 8.08
FR0065 15-May-33 14.51 6.63 85.97 8.31 8.35 85.68 8.37 85.52 not attractive 8.74
FR0068 15-Mar-34 15.34 8.38 98.85 8.51 8.40 99.76 8.42 99.60 attractive 8.39
FR0072 15-May-36 17.51 8.25 97.93 8.48 8.56 97.19 8.56 97.19 not attractive 9.07
FR0045 15-May-37 18.51 9.75 110.10 8.65 8.54 111.20 8.55 111.08 attractive 8.93
FR0050 15-Jul-38 19.68 10.50 117.69 8.62 8.47 119.25 8.51 118.82 attractive 8.71
FR0057 15-May-41 22.51 9.50 107.28 8.75 8.65 108.34 8.69 107.98 attractive 9.57
FR0062 15-Apr-42 23.43 6.38 76.28 8.78 8.73 76.69 8.75 76.46 attractive 10.44
FR0067 15-Feb-44 25.27 8.75 98.05 8.94 8.87 98.75 8.89 98.56 attractive 9.84
Source: Bloomberg, SSI Research Team - Red numbers are the benchmark series

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 Fixed Income Research Team

Ahmad Mikail Economist ahmad.mikail@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8396

Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst makky.dandytra@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8382

Fixed Income Sales Team

R. Virine Tresna Sundari Head of Fixed Income virine.sundari@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8170

Yenny Immanuela Batubara Senior Fixed Income Sales yenny.immanuela@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8384

Dina Afrilia Senior Fixed Income Sales dina.afrilia@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8309

Rudianto Nugroho Fixed Income Sales rudianto.nugroho@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8306

Sany Rizal Keliobas Fixed Income Sales sany.rizal@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8337

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all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability
cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia

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