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DISTRIBUSI BINOMIAL,

POISSON DAN NORMAL

DITRIBUSI PROBABILITAS
Jika kita mengukur sebuah variabel acak

berulang kali, kita dapat membentuk sebuah


distribusi nilai-nilai.
Bayangkan sebuah distribusi nilai-nilai yang
akan kita dapatkan dari banyak pengukuran
dalam kondisi yang sama.
Hal ini memberikan distribusi probabilitas

CARA MENENTUKAN DISTRIBUSI


Apakah data berupa data diskrit atau

kontinyu
Apakah data berupa data simetris atau
tidak simetris
Apakah terdapat batas atas atau batas
bawah pada data
Apakah terdapat nilai ekstrim pada
distribusi

Bagan Distribusi Statistik


Data diskrit atau kontinyu ?

CIRI-CIRI DISTRIBUSI
Distribusi binomial merupakan distribusi data binari dari sampel

terbatas, yaitu probabilitas dari muncuknya r kejadian pada n


percobaan.
Distrbusi binomial mengukur probabilitas kejadian sukses pada
sejumlah percobaan.
Terdapat jumlah percobaan dengan ukuran sampel yang finit (tertentu)
Pada setiap percobaan, munculnya peluang diharapkan bisa terjadi atau

tidak
Probabilitas munculnya kejadian atau tidak adalah sama pada setiap
percobaan
Percobaan adalah bebas antara satu dengan yang lainnya.
Distribusi poisson merupakan distribusi data binari dari sebuah sampel

yang infinit (tidak tertentu).


Distribusi poisson mengukur probabilitas kejadian dalam interval
waktu tertentu.
Distribusi normal merupakan data kontinyu yang memiliki distribusi

simetrik dengan bentuk lonceng

Distribusi Normal/standar
=0 and 2=1
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
-6

-4

-2

Distribusi Bernoulli
Merupakan bentuk distribusi binomial
Menjelaskan suatu percobaan probabilitas
dimana setiap percobaan memiliki dua
kemungkinan outcome yaitu sukses dan
gagal

Inprobability theory,

thenormal(orGaussian)distributi
onis a very common
continuous probability distribution.
Normal distributions are important in
statisticsand are often used in the
naturalandsocial sciencesto
represent real-valued
random variableswhose distributions
are not known

The normal distribution is useful

because of the
central limit theorem. In its most
general form, under some
conditions (which include finite
variance), it states that averages
ofrandom variables
independently drawn from
independent distributions

The normal distribution is

sometimes informally called


thebell curve. However, many
other distributions are bellshaped (such as theCauchy,
Student's t, andlogistic
distributions).

Definition
The standard normal distribution is a
probability distribution with mean equal
to
0 and standard deviation equal to 1,
and the total area under its density curve
is equal to 1.

Converting to a Standard
Normal Distribution

z=

Figure 6-12

Copyright 2007 Pearson Education, Inc


Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley.

The Normal Distribution


f(X)

Changing shifts the


distribution left or
right.
Changing
increases or
decreases the
spread.
X

**The beauty of the normal curve:


No matter what and are, the area between - and
+ is about 68%; the area between -2 and +2 is
about 95%; and the area between -3 and +3 is about
99.7%. Almost all values fall within 3 standard
deviations.

KARAKTERISTIK DISTRIBUSI NORMAL


The normal curve is bell-shaped and has a

single peak at the exact center of the


distribution.
The arithmetic mean, median, and mode of
the distribution are equal and located at the
peak.
Half the area under the curve is above this
center point, and the other half is below it.
The normal probability distribution is
symmetrical about its mean.
It is asymptotic - the curve gets closer and
closer to the x-axis but never actually
touches it.

68-95-99.7 Rule

68% of
the data
95% of the data
99.7% of the data

Comparing X and Z units

100
0

200
2.0

X
Z

( = 100, = 50)
( = 0, = 1)

Are my data normal?


Not all continuous random

variables are normally


distributed!!
It is important to evaluate
how well the data are
approximated by a normal
distribution

CARA MENENTUKAN APAKAH DATA MEMILIKI


DISTRIBUSI NORMAL
1. Look at the histogram! Does it appear bell
shaped?
2. Compute descriptive summary measures
are mean, median, and mode similar?
3. Do 2/3 of observations lie within 1 std dev
of the mean? Do 95% of observations lie
within 2 std dev of the mean?
4. Look at a normal probability plotis it
approximately linear?
5. Run tests of normality (such as
Kolmogorov-Smirnov). But, be cautious,
highly influenced by sample size!

Distribusi Binomial
1. The data arise from a sequence of n

independent trials.
2. At each trial there are only two
possible outcomes, conventionally
called success and failure.
3. The probability of success, p, is the
same in each trial.
4. The random variable of interest is the
number of successes, X, in the n
trials.

Distribusi Poisson
Poisson distributions are often used to

describe the number of occurrences of


a rare event. For example
The number of tropical cyclones in a
season
The number of occasions in a season
when river levels exceed a certain
value
The main assumptions are that events
occur
at random (the occurrence of an
event doesnt change the probability

Distribusi Normal (Gaussian)


Normal (also known as Gaussian)

distributions are by far the most


commonly used family of continuous
distributions.
They are bell-shaped see Slide 20 and are indexed by two parameters:
The mean the distribution is
symmetric about this value
The standard deviation this
determines the spread of the
distribution. Roughly 2/3 of the
distribution lies within 1 standard

Tugas :
Kelompok :
1. Buat percobaan Bernoulli atau binomial

(masing-masing 5 orang) yaitu :


munculnya kepala
2. Buat percobaan Poisson (untuk satu kelas)
yaitu yang minggu lalu mudik
3. Buat percobaan Gaussian (untuk satu
kelas) yaitu ukuran berat badan