- Accounting Theory -
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Abnormal Return
Abnormal Return
RRTN t
RTN t
k
RRTN t = Rata-rata return tidak normal pada hari ke t
RTNt = Return tidak normal pada hari ke t
K = Jumlah sekuritas
Akumulasi Return Tidak
Normal
ARTN t RTN t
ARRTN t RRTN t
ARTNt =Akumulasi return tidak normal pada hr t
ARRTNt = Akumulasi rata-rata return tidak normal pada
hari t
Chapter 5
ACCOUNTING DATA,
BANKRUPTCY, AND
RISK
Summarizes Study Of :
Accounting Security
Data Valuation
Useful
in
Accounting data to predict
bankruptcy
Bankruptcy
Accountin
g Data Bankruptcy
Bond indenture and lending agreements often use accounting ratios to
restrict managerss actions
Oleh karena itu, banyak research yang menggunakan data akuntansi untuk
memprediksi kebangkrutan perusahaan
Two Types of Bankruptcy Prediction Studies
Univariate
Approach
(Beaver, 1966)
Multivariate
Approach
(Altman, 1968)
Penelitian Altman (1968)
W1 = working capt/total
asset Altman menggunakan
W2 = retained analisis diskriminan ganda
earnings/total assets untuk membedakan antara
W3 = earning before
interest & taxes/total
perusahaan manufaktur
assets bangkrut atau tidak pada
W4 = market value of periode pengamatannya
equity/book value of total (1946 1965).
debt Pendekatan sampel
W5 = sales/ total assets berpasangan (33
perusahaan bangkrut dan
33 tidak yang jenis industri
dan ukuran asset
perusahaannya setara)
Z = .012w1+.014w2+.033w3+.006w4+.999w5
Consclusions :
Masih Ingat ?
Systematic
Risk Unsystematic
Risk
Estimates using
Accounting Data
The Ball and Brown Study (1969)
Ball and Brown estimate both equation of accounting beta and market
model for 261 firms over the period 1946-1966
The result was correlation coefficient between the accounting and
market model estimates for operating income, net income, and
income available for common are 46%, 39% and 41%
The Beaver, Kettler, and Scholes Study
Bond Ratings
(rating agencies)
Risk
(bonds )
Evidence that Rating Agencies Use
Accounting Data
Forecasting Earnings
Time Series