MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS 8/E

Raymond McLeod, Jr. and George Schell

Chapter 13
Sistem Pendukung Keputusan

13-1
Copyright 2001 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
 Jenis Keputusan (Simon’s)

 Keputusan terprogram
– repetitive and routine
– Aturan/procedure terdefinisi
 Keputusan tak terprogram
– Uraian dan tak terstruktur
– Tak ada metode langsung menanganinya
 Berada pada ujung suatu kesatuan

13-2
Simon’s Problem Solving Phases
 Intelligence
– Amati lingkungan, cari kondisi yg perlu diperbaiki
 Design
– Menemukan, mengembangkan dan analisis alternatif
 Choice
– Seleksi rangkaian tindakan dari beberapa alternatif yg
tersdia
 Review
– Menilai pilihan yang lalu

13-3
 Definitions of a Decision
Support System (DSS)
General definition - a system providing both
problem-solving and communications capabilities
for semistructured problems
Specific definition - a system that supports a
single manager or a relatively small group of
managers working as a problem-solving team in
the solution of a semistructured problem by
providing information or making suggestions
concerning specific decisions.
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 The DSS Concept
 Gorry and Scott Morton memakai istilah
‘DSS’ pada 1971, 10 tahun setelah MIS
dipopulerkan
 Dasarnya adalah struktur masalah
– Masalah terstruktur adalah yang dapat ditangani
dengan algorithms and decision rules
– Masalah tidak terstruktur sama sekali tidak
memiliki struktur 3 tahap Simon
– Semistructured mengandung terstruktur dan
tidak terstruktur 13-5
 The Gorry and Scott Morton Grid
Management levels
Operational Management Strategic
control control planning
Structured Accounts Budget analysis-- Tanker fleet
receivable engineered costs mix
Degree of Order entry Short-term Warehouse and
problem forecasting factory location
structure Inventory
control

Semistructured Production Variance analysis--

scheduling Mergers and
overall budget acquisitions
Cash Budget
management New product
preparation planning
PERT/COST Sales and
Unstructured systems R&D planning
production

13-6
 Alter’s DSS Types
 Kerangka DSS Steven Alter(1976)

– Taksonomi 6 jenis DSS

– Berdasarkan survai pada 56 DSS
 Pengklasifikasian DSS berdasar “tingkat
dukungan terhadap pengambilan keputusan”

13-7
 Levels of Alter’s DSSs
 Level of problem-solving support from
lowest to highest
– Mengambil elemen-2 informasi
– Menganalisa emua file
– Menyiapkan report dari berbagai file
– Memperkirakan akibat keputusan
– Mengusulkan keputusan
– Membuat keputusan

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 Importance of Alter’s Study

 Didukung oleh konsep mengembangkan

sistem utk menangani keputusan tertentu
 Menjelaskan bahwa DSS tidak terbatas pada
pendekatan yang lebih eksotik daripada
query database.

13-9
 Alter’s DSS Types

Degree
of
problem
Retrieve Analyze Prepare Estimate Propose Make solving
information entire reports decision decisions decisions support
elements files from consequen-
multiple ces
files

Degree of
Little Much
complexity of the
problem-solving
system 13-10
 Three DSS Objectives
1. Membantu manajer membuat keputusan
untuk masalah semiterstruktur
2. Mendukung penilaian oleh manajer bukan
mengganti tugas mereka
3. Meningkatkan efektifitas keputusan

Based on studies of Keen and Scott-Morton

13-11
A DSS Model
Environment
Individual Other
problem group
solvers members

Report GDSS
Mathematical GDSS
writing software
Models software
software

Database

Decision
support
system
Environment
Data Communication Information
Legend:
13-12
 Database Contents
 Memakai tiga jenis software
– S/W report writer
» Special reports
» Periodic reports
» DBMS
– Model matematika
» Simulasi
» Bahasa pemodelan khusus
– Groupware atau GDSS

13-13
Group Decision Support Systems
 Sistem berbasis komputer mendukung
kelompokdalam tugas-2 nya dan membantu
menghubungkan dengan lingkungannya.
 Dipakai dalam problem solving
 Bidang-2 yang berhubungan :
– Electronic meeting system (EMS)
– Computer-supported cooperative work (CSCW)
– Group support system (GSS)
– Groupware
13-14
 How GDSS Contributes
to Problem Solving
 Meningkatkan komunikasi
 Memungkinkan diskusi
 Mengurangi waktu

13-15
 User Interface

 User entri :
– Instructions
– Information } Menus, commands, natural language, GUI

 Sistem menyediakan:
– Solutions
– Explanations of
» Questions
» Problem solutions

13-16
 Knowledge Base

 Description of problem domain

 Rules
– Knowledge representation technique
– ‘IF:THEN’ logic
– Networks of rules
» Lowest levels provide evidence
» Top levels produce 1 or more conclusions
» Conclusion is called a Goal variable.

13-17
 A Rule Set That
Conclusion Produces One Final
Conclusion

Conclusion
Conclusion

Evidence Evidence Evidence Evidence

Evidence Evidence Evidence Evidence

13-18
 Rule Selection

 Pemilihan aturan yang paling efisien untuk

memecahkan masalah yang paling sulit
 Bebrapa goal dapat dicapai dengan hanya
sejumlah aturan;

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 Inference Engine

 Memakai knowledge based dengan suatu

urutan
 Dua pendekatan menggunakan rules
– 1. Forward reasoning (data driven)
– 2. Reverse reasoning (goal driven)

13-20
 Forward Reasoning
(Forward Chaining)
 Rule is evaluated as:
– (1) true, (2) false, (3) unknown
 Rule evaluation is an iterative process
 When no more rules can fire, the reasoning
process stops even if a goal has not been
reached
Start with inputs and
work to solution
13-21
Rule 1 The Forward
T
IF A
THEN B Rule 7 Reasoning
Rule 2
F
IF B OR D
THEN K
Rule 10
IF K AND
Process
IF C T L THEN N
THEN D
T
Rule 3 Rule 8 Rule 12
T T
IF M IF E IF N OR O
THEN E THEN L THEN P
T
Rule 4
T
IF K Legend:
THEN F
Rule 9 First pass
Rule 5 Rule 11
T IF (F AND H) T
IF G OR J IF M
THEN H THEN O Second pass
THEN M T
Rule 6
F Third pass
IF I
THEN J
13-22
 Reverse Reasoning Steps
(Backward Chaining)
 Divide problem into subproblems
 Try to solve one subproblem
 Then try another

Start with solution

and work back to
inputs

13-23
 Step 4 The First Five Problems
Are Identified
Rule 1
Step 3
IF A THEN
B Rule 7 Step 2
T
IF B OR D Rule 10
THEN K Step 1
Rule 2 T IF K AND L Rule 12
IF C THEN N
IF N OR O
THEN D
THEN P
Step 5
Rule 3 Rule 8
IF M IF E
THEN E THEN L

Rule 11 Legend:
Problems to
IF (F AND H) IF M
M be solved
Rule 9 IF
OR J THEN O
THEN O
THEN M
13-24
 The Next Four Problems Are
Step 8 Identified Rule 12

Rule 4
If N Or O
Then P T
If K
Then F
T
Step 7 Step 6
Step 9
Rule 5
If G IF (F And H) If M
Then H Or J Then O
T Then M T T

Rule 9 Rule 11 Legend:

Rule 6 Problems to
be solved
If I
Then J 13-25
Forward Versus Reverse Reasoning
 Reverse reasoning lebih cepat
 Reverse reasoning lebih cocok untuk
beberapa kondisi
– Jika variabel sasarannya banyak
– Jika banyak rules
– Semua rules tidak memerlukan penjelasan
prosesnya dalam mencapai sebuah solusi

13-26
 Development Engine
 Programming languages
– Lisp
– Prolog
 Expert system shells
– Ready made processor that can be tailored to a
particular problem domain
 Case-based reasoning (CBR)
 Decision tree

13-27
 Expert System Disadvantages

 Can’t handle inconsistent knowledge

 Can’t apply judgment or intuition

13-28
 Keys to Successful ES
Development
 Coordinate ES development with strategic
planning
 Clearly define problem to be solved and
understand problem domain
 Pay particular attention to ethical and legal
feasibility of proposed system
 Understand users’ concerns and expectations
concerning system
 Employ management techniques designed to retain
developers 13-29
 The Human Brain

 Neuron -- the information processor

– Input -- dendrites
– Processing -- soma
– Output -- axon
 Neurons are connected by the synapse

13-30
Simple Biological Neurons

Soma
Axonal Paths
(processor)
(output)

Synapse
Axon

Dendrites
(input)

13-31