ABSTRACT
The study, entitled "Comparative Analysis of Altman model (z-score) and zavgren (logit) for
pushing Predicting Financial Distress of Companies in Indonesia Stock Exchange Listings" aims
to find out how the condition of the companies included in the list LQ 45, and to find methods
better in predicting financial distress. This study is descriptive. Data in this study are secondary
data such as company financial statements included in the list LQ 45 listing in the Indonesian
Stock Exchange. Periodicity of data of this study included data from 2006 to 2008 period. The
data analysis technique was used to calculate the financial distress by comparing the ratio of
operating profit / interest expense, calculated the value of Altman (z-score) and classified based
on cut-off point, calculating the value zavgren (logit) and classify based on range intervals,
comparing between the two model to find better models for predicting financial distress.
Based on the results of a study of 22 companies of samples, it is known that in 2006 when seen
from the calculation of the ratio of operating profit / interest expense, the results were 90.91% of
companies included in the healthy category, in the year 2007 were 95.45% and in 2008 the
company 90.91% of the company. When using the method of Altman (z-score) can be seen that
companies who fall into categories of health in the year 2006 as many as 13.63% of companies,
in the year 2007 is 18.18% of the company and in 2008 ie 22.73% of the company.
Results can also be found if the calculation method zavgren (logit) then it is known that in the
year 2006 is 27.28% of companies included in the healthy category, in the year 2007 as many as
22.73% of companies and as many as 13.64% of companies entering in the healthy category in
2008. If seen from the results that have been obtained, the better models in predicting financial
distress because the model is a model Airman Airman able to detect financial difficulties with
the percentage rate of 54.54% in 2006 and 2007, while in the year 2008 amounted to 59.09%.
For zavgren model is only able to detect financial distress at 18.18% in 2006 and 2007, while in
the year 2008 amounted to 13.63%. So that is what proves that Altman's model is better when
compared with zavgren model.
Keywords: financial distress, the Altman model (z-score), zavgren model (logit)