Cash Flow XL
Cash Flow XL
Dengan metode Least Square (Peter & Timmerhaus Ed 4, hal 760–761) dapat dilakukan
penaksiran index harga rata-rata pada akhir tahun 2010. penyelesaian dengan Least Square
menghasilkan persamaan:
y a b (x - x)
Keterangan:
a= ,yharga rata-rata y
b=
(x - x )(y - y)
, slop garis least square
(x x) 2
= 14000
x n 7
x
=
x/n = 2000
= 28000028
x 2
Persamaan 17.21 Peters & Timmerhaus Ed. 4 :
= -
(x - x) x ( x) 2 / n
2 2
( x) 2 / n
= 28000028 – (14000)2/ 7
28
= 7599.6
y
=
y y/n
= 1085.6571428572
= 1085.66
= 8253916.12
y2
= -
(y - y) 2 y2 ( y) 2 / n
= 3356.0971428566
= 3356.10
= 15199502.8
xy
Persamaan 17.20, Peters & Timmerhaus Ed. 4:
= -( )( )
(x - x )(y - y) xy y x/n
= 15143502,8 – (7571,6)(2000)
302.7999999989
Nilai a = = 1081,66
y b =
(x - x )(y - y)
(x x) 2
(x - x )(y - y)
= (x x) 2
302,8
= 10.8142857142
28
= 10.81
Jadi, persamaannyay = 1085,66 + 10,81
(x - x )
y = 1085,66 + 10,81 ( x – 2000)
Untuk x = 2016, maka y = 1258.6857142851
Jadi cost index pada tahun 2016 = 1258.6857142851
Data harga peralatan yang digunakan diambil dari Peter & Timmerhaus pada basis tahun 2003
dengan cost index sebesar 1117 serta sumber lainnya dengan index yang telah disesuaikan.
Jadi, Kurs Dollar (2008) : US$1 = Rp 9,159 (Kompas, 11 juli 2008)
TOTAL 19
2. H3PO4
Kebutuhan = 20 kg/jam
= 485 kg/hari
= 160,000 kg/tahun
Harga/ kg = $ 0.384 (www.icrsprincing.com)
Rp 3,517
Harga kg per tahun Rp 562,728,397
3. NaOH
Kebutuhan = 240.519 kg/jam
= 5772.456 kg/hari
= 1904910.48 kg/tahun
Harga/ kg = $ 0.32000 (www.icrsprincing.com)
= Rp 2,931
Harga kg per tahun Rp 5,583,064,028
4. BE
Kebutuhan = 443.049 kg/jam
= 10633.176 kg/hari
= 3508948.08 kg/tahun
Harga/ kg = $ 0.221 (www.icrsprincing.com)
= Rp 2,024
Harga kg per tahun Rp 7,102,598,658
1. Alum (AL2(SO4)3
Kebutuhan = 1.775 kg/jam
= 42.6072 kg/hari
= 14060.376 kg/tahun
Harga/ kg = $ 0.346 (PT.Brata chem 2008)
= Rp 3,169
Harga kg per tahun Rp 44,557,528
3. NaOH
Kebutuhan = 33.319 kg/jam
= 799.656 kg/hari
= 263886.48 kg/tahun
Harga/ kg = $ 0.330 (PT.Brata chem 2008)
= Rp 3,022
Harga kg per tahun Rp 797,588,969
4.NaCL
Kebutuhan = 24.208 kg/jam
= 580.992 kg/hari
= 191727.36 kg/tahun
Harga/ kg = $ 0.382 (PT.Brata chem 2008)
= Rp 3,500
Harga kg per tahun Rp 671,032,084
5.Kaporit
Kebutuhan = 1.848 kg/jam
= 44.352 kg/hari
= 14636.16 kg/tahun
Harga/ kg = $ 1.638 (PT.Brata chem 2008)
= Rp 2,000
Harga kg per tahun Rp 29,272,320
Investasi pabrik:
Investasi mula-mula (TCI) = Rp 187,182,509,957
Modal sendiri = Rp 112,309,505,974
Modal pinjaman = Rp 74,873,003,983
Tabel E.6 Biaya operasi untuk kapasitas 80%, 90% dan 100% berdasarkan discounted cash flow
No. Kapasitas Biaya operasi ( rupiah )
1. 80% Rp 570,349,029,997
2. 90% Rp 641,642,658,746
3. 100% Rp 712,936,287,496
Total biaya pada akhir masa konstruksi = modal sendiri + modal pinjaman
= Rp 217,648,335,278
Perhitungan harga penjualan:
Dari perhitungan yang telah dilakukan sebelumnya, maka untuk kapasitas 100% didapatkan harga penjualan:
1. Produk Olein dan stearin Rp 1,170,007,407,360
Keterangan:
n = tahun
CF = cash flow pada tahun ke-n
Ratio =
= 259,027,768,292 / Rp 217,648,335,278
= 1.190121
Dari perhitungan diperoleh nilai i = 47,34 % per tahun. Harga i yang diperoleh lebih besar dari harga i untuk pinjaman modal pada bank.
Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa pabrik layak untuk didirikan dengan kondisi tingkat bunga bank sebesar 13%.
E.10 Waktu Pengembalian Modal (Payout Time, POT)
Untuk menghitung waktu pengembalian modal, maka dihitung akumulasi modal sebagai berikut:
Tabel E.12 FC, VC, SVC dan S Berdasarkan Kapasitas Produksi (dalam 106)
No Kapasitas FC VC SVC
Produksi
1 0% Rp 30,229,975,358 Rp - Rp 230,194,251,259
2 10% Rp 30,229,975,358 Rp 47,353,510,950 Rp 230,194,251,259
3 20% Rp 30,229,975,358 Rp 94,707,021,901 Rp 230,194,251,259
N i l a i V C , S V C , T C , d a n S b e r d a s a r k a n k a p a s i ta s p r o d u k s i
4 30% Rp 30,229,975,358 Rp 142,060,532,851 Rp 230,194,251,259
5 40% Rp 30,229,975,358 Rp 189,414,043,802 Rp 230,194,251,259
6 50% Rp 30,229,975,358 Rp 236,767,554,752 Rp 230,194,251,259
7 60% Rp 30,229,975,358 Rp 284,121,065,703 Rp 230,194,251,259
8 70% Rp 30,229,975,358 Rp 331,474,576,653 Rp 230,194,251,259
9 80% Rp 30,229,975,358 Rp 378,828,087,603 Rp 230,194,251,259
10 90% Rp 30,229,975,358 Rp 426,181,598,554 Rp 230,194,251,259
11 100% Rp 30,229,975,358 Rp 473,535,109,504 Rp 230,194,251,259
Rp1,400,000,000,000
Rp1,200,000,000,000
Rp1,000,000,000,000
SVC
Rp800,000,000,000
TC
Rp600,000,000,000 S
FC
Rp400,000,000,000
Rp200,000,000,000
Rp-
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
1
xy
2110429.6
2121676.2
2135531.7
2179800
2195297.1
2219417.2
2237351
15199502.8
(sumber www,matche,com)
Harga Harga
(Rupiah) (US$)
Rp 1,053,750,833 $ 102,100
Rp 67,085,019 $ 6,500
Rp 297,238,237 $ 3,600
Rp 920,612,873 $ 89,200
Rp 91,854,872 $ 8,900
Rp 109,400,184 $ 5,300
Rp 394,253,495 $ 38,200
Rp 76,373,714 $ 3,700
Rp 413,862,962 $ 40,100
Rp 68,117,096 $ 6,600
Rp - $ 89,400
Rp - $ 9,700
Rp - $ 5,400
Rp - $ 38,100
Rp - $ 3,550
Rp - $ 6,400
Rp - $ 11,200
Rp - $ 5,400
Rp - $ 38,100
Rp - $ 5,100
Rp - $ 5,100
Rp - $ 84,300
Rp - $ 3,500
Rp - $ 7,300
Rp - $ 6,800
Rp - $ 3,600
Rp - $ 99,600
Rp - $ 3,490
Rp - $ 7,600
Rp - $ 4,900
Rp - $ 88,500
Rp - $ 3,700
Rp - $ 7,500
Rp - $ 20,300
Rp - $ 88,500
Rp - $ 3,800
Rp - $ 9,200
Rp - $ 53,000
Rp - $ 3,900
Rp - $ 8,600
Rp - $ 53,600
Rp - $ 29,700
Rp - $ 99,100
Rp - $ 3,900
Rp - $ 6,600
Rp - $ 3,600
Rp - $ 8,600
Rp 3,492,549,285 $ 1,234,840
Rp 8,808,343 $ 853
Rp 8,808,343 $ 853
Rp 13,522,128 $ 1,310
Rp 14,085,561 $ 1,365
Rp 18,029,518 $ 1,747
Rp 18,029,518 $ 1,747
Rp 22,536,897 $ 2,184
Rp 12,384,927 $ 600
Rp 9,010,034 $ 873
Rp 13,522,138 $ 1,310
Rp 20,283,208 $ 1,965
Rp 20,283,208 $ 1,965
Rp 22,536,897 $ 2,184
Rp 22,536,897 $ 2,184
Rp 8,673,360,876 $ 780,190
Total Gaji/bulan
( rupiah )
Rp 32,000,000
Rp 9,000,000
Rp 24,000,000
Rp 30,000,000
Rp 15,000,000
Rp 21,000,000
Rp 10,000,000
Rp 45,000,000
Rp 24,000,000
Rp 38,000,000
Rp 10,000,000
Rp 7,500,000
Rp 10,500,000
Rp 24,200,000
Rp 4,000,000
Rp 304,200,000
Bulan
Rp 12,165,910,161
Rp 4,988,023,166
Rp 3,649,773,048
Rp 9,732,728,129
Rp 3,284,795,744
Rp 33,821,230,249
Rp 3,382,123,025
Rp 37,203,353,273
Rp 372,033,533
Rp 37,575,386,806
Rp 3,757,538,681
Rp 5,474,659,573
Rp 1,459,909,219
Rp 8,759,455,316
Rp 1,338,250,118
Rp 58,365,199,713
Rp 20,427,819,899
Rp 21,595,123,894
Rp 2,334,607,989
Rp 13,423,995,934
0,27FCI
Rp 57,781,547,716 0,27FCI
Rp 112,309,505,974
Rp 74,873,003,983
Rp 454,809,825,784
Rp 3,650,400,000
Rp 365,040,000
Rp 18,725,283,720
Rp 11,137,359,342
Rp 795,525,667
Rp 730,080,000
Rp. 0,03 TPC
Rp 490,213,514,514 + 0,03 TPC
Rp 15,910,513,346
Rp 3,182,102,669
Rp 1,591,051,335
Rp 9,546,308,008
Rp 30,229,975,358
Rp 28,517,451,500
Rp 71,293,628,750
Rp 35,646,814,375
Rp 135,457,894,624
Jumlah ( Rp )
Rp 37,436,501,991
Rp 42,303,247,250
Rp 10,366,167,401
uh jumlah pengeluaran modal. Cara yang dilakukan adalah
roleh lebih besar dari harga i untuk pinjaman modal pada bank.
1.1584845013
kapasitas produksi dimana biaya produksi total sama dengan hasil penjualan.
TC S
Rp 260,424,226,617 Rp -
Rp 307,777,737,567 Rp 117,000,740,736
Rp 355,131,248,518 Rp 234,001,481,472
Rp 402,484,759,468 Rp 351,002,222,208
Rp 449,838,270,418 Rp 468,002,962,944
Rp 497,191,781,369 Rp 585,003,703,680
Rp 544,545,292,319 Rp 702,004,444,416
Rp 591,898,803,270 Rp 819,005,185,152
Rp 639,252,314,220 Rp 936,005,925,888
Rp 686,605,825,171 Rp 1,053,006,666,624
Rp 733,959,336,121 Rp 1,170,007,407,360
N POINT (BEP)
BEP
47.0%
SVC
TC
S
FC
INVESTASI
Tahun ke Kapasitas Modal Sendiri Mod
Pengeluaran Jumlah Akumulasi Pengeluaran Bunga
1 2 3 4 5
-1 0% 56,154,752,987 56,154,752,987 56,154,752,987 37,436,501,991 0
-2 0% 56,154,752,987 56,154,752,987 112,309,505,974 37,436,501,991 4,866,745,25
0 0% 0 112,309,505,974 10,366,167,40
1 80%
2 90%
3 100%
4 100%
5 100%
6 100%
7 100%
8 100%
9 100%
10 100%
11 100%
12 100%
13 100%
14 100%
15 100%
16 100%
17 100%
18 100%
19 90%
20 80%
Total
INVESTASI
Investasi Total Sisa Pinjaman
Modal Pinjaman Pengembalian
Bunga Jumlah Akumulasi (3 ) + ( 7) Pinjaman ( 7) - ( 9 )
5 6 7 8 9 10
0 37,436,501,991 37,436,501,991 93,591,254,979 0
4,866,745,259 42,303,247,250 79,739,749,242 192,049,255,216 0
10,366,167,401 10,366,167,401 90,105,916,643 202,415,422,617 0 90,105,916,643
9,010,591,664 81,095,324,979
9,010,591,664 72,084,733,315
9,010,591,664 63,074,141,650
9,010,591,664 54,063,549,986
9,010,591,664 45,052,958,322
9,010,591,664 36,042,366,657
9,010,591,664 27,031,774,993
9,010,591,664 18,021,183,329
9,010,591,664 9,010,591,664
9,010,591,664 (0)
Bunga dari Sisa Laba
Hasil Penjualan Biaya Operasi Depresiasi Pinjaman Sebelum pajak
(13%) x (10) (11)-(12)-(13)-(14)
11 12 13 14 15
0% 0 0
0% 0 0
0% 0 0 0
936,005,925,888 639,252,314,220 15,910,513,346 9,911,650,831 270,931,447,491
1,053,006,666,624 686,605,825,171 15,910,513,346 8,920,485,748 341,569,842,359
1,170,007,407,360 733,959,336,121 15,910,513,346 7,929,320,665 412,208,237,228
1,170,007,407,360 733,959,336,121 15,910,513,346 6,938,155,582 413,199,402,311
1,170,007,407,360 733,959,336,121 15,910,513,346 5,946,990,498 414,190,567,394
1,170,007,407,360 733,959,336,121 15,910,513,346 4,955,825,415 415,181,732,477
1,170,007,407,360 733,959,336,121 15,910,513,346 3,964,660,332 416,172,897,560
1,170,007,407,360 733,959,336,121 15,910,513,346 2,973,495,249 417,164,062,643
1,170,007,407,360 733,959,336,121 15,910,513,346 1,982,330,166 418,155,227,727
1,170,007,407,360 733,959,336,121 15,910,513,346 991,165,083 419,146,392,810
1,170,007,407,360 733,959,336,121 15,910,513,346 (0) 420,137,557,893
1,170,007,407,360 733,959,336,121 15,910,513,346 420,137,557,893
1,170,007,407,360 733,959,336,121 15,910,513,346 420,137,557,893
1,170,007,407,360 733,959,336,121 15,910,513,346 420,137,557,893
1,170,007,407,360 733,959,336,121 15,910,513,346 420,137,557,893
1,170,007,407,360 733,959,336,121 15,910,513,346 420,137,557,893
1,170,007,407,360 733,959,336,121 15,910,513,346 420,137,557,893
1,170,007,407,360 733,959,336,121 15,910,513,346 420,137,557,893
1,053,006,666,624 686,605,825,171 15,910,513,346 350,490,328,107
936,005,925,888 639,252,314,220 15,910,513,346 280,843,098,322
79,552,566,732
Laba
Net Cash Flow
Pajak Sesudah pajak Cummulative Net Cash Flow IRR
25% ( >200 juta) (15) - (16) (13+17)
16 17 18 19 20
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
67,732,861,873 203,198,585,618 219,109,098,964 219,109,098,964
85,392,460,590 256,177,381,770 272,087,895,116 491,196,994,080
103,052,059,307 309,156,177,921 325,066,691,267 816,263,685,348
103,299,850,578 309,899,551,733 325,810,065,080 1,142,073,750,428
103,547,641,849 310,642,925,546 326,553,438,892 1,468,627,189,320
103,795,433,119 311,386,299,358 327,296,812,704 1,795,924,002,024
104,043,224,390 312,129,673,170 328,040,186,517 2,123,964,188,541
104,291,015,661 312,873,046,983 328,783,560,329 2,452,747,748,870 100.00%
104,538,806,932 313,616,420,795 329,526,934,141 2,782,274,683,011
104,786,598,202 314,359,794,607 330,270,307,954 3,112,544,990,964
105,034,389,473 315,103,168,420 331,013,681,766 3,443,558,672,730
105,034,389,473 315,103,168,420 331,013,681,766 3,774,572,354,496
105,034,389,473 315,103,168,420 331,013,681,766 4,105,586,036,262
105,034,389,473 315,103,168,420 331,013,681,766 4,436,599,718,028
105,034,389,473 315,103,168,420 331,013,681,766 4,767,613,399,794
105,034,389,473 315,103,168,420 331,013,681,766 5,098,627,081,560
105,034,389,473 315,103,168,420 331,013,681,766 5,429,640,763,326
105,034,389,473 315,103,168,420 331,013,681,766 5,760,654,445,092
87,622,582,027 262,867,746,080 278,778,259,427 6,039,432,704,518
70,210,774,580 210,632,323,741 194,721,810,395 6,234,154,514,913