Dengan metode Least Square (Peter & Timmerhaus Ed 4, hal 760–761) dapat dilakukan
penaksiran index harga rata-rata pada akhir tahun 2010. penyelesaian dengan Least Square
menghasilkan persamaan:
y a b (x - x)
Keterangan:
a= ,yharga rata-rata y
b= (x - x )(y - y)
, slop garis least square
(x x) 2
= 14091
x n 7
x
=
x/n = 2013
= 28365211
x 2
28
= 3963
y
y
=
y/n
= 566.1428571429
= 566.143
= 2245367.920
y 2
( y) 2 / n
= -
(y - y) 2
y 2
= 1743.7771428581
= 1743.78
xy = 7977425.400
Nilai a = = 1081,66
y
b = (x - x )(y - y)
(x x) 2
(x - x )(y - y)
(x x) 2
= 302,8
28
= -3.3428571427
= -3.343
Jadi, persamaannyay = 566.143 + 3.343 (x - x )
Data harga peralatan yang digunakan diambil dari Peter & Timmerhaus pada basis tahun 2003
dengan cost index sebesar 1117 serta sumber lainnya dengan index yang telah disesuaikan.
Jadi, Kurs Dollar (2008) : US$1 = Rp 14,259 (Kompas, 11 juli 2008)
E.1.1 Contoh Perhitungan Harga Peralatan Proses
1. Tangki Penyimpanan Asam Klorida (T-01)
Tipe : Tangki silinder vertikal
Kapasitas : 2.665.758,175 ft^3
Bahan : Carbon Steel SA-516 70
Tekanan : 191.047 psi
Harga tahun 2013 : $ 72,300
: Rp 1,030,925,700.000000
Harga tahun 2019 : Rp 1,030,925,700 x (546.086/ 566.143)
: Rp 994,402,636
No Nama Alat Unit Harga Alat Pada Tahun 2019
1 T 01 2 Rp 1.934.269.167
2 P-01 2 Rp 120.390.197
3 He-01 1 Rp 203.325.666
4 H-01 1 Rp 169.536.151
5 Valve 03 2 Rp 1.533.670
6 T-02 2 Rp 1.567.747.900
7 P-02 2 Rp 104.338.171
8 He-02 1 Rp 164.533.269
9 H-02 1 Rp 169.536.151
10 Valve 04 2 Rp 1.533.670
Unit
11 R-01 1 Rp 20.107.838.257
12 C-01 1 Rp 113.701.853 1
13 C-02 1 Rp 226.066.037 1
14 Valve 02 2 Rp 1.533.670 8
15 Valve 100 2 Rp 1.533.670 1
16 MD-01 1 Rp 2.534.882.484 1
17 T-produk samping 2 Rp 1.391.175.611 2
18 T-produk utama 2 Rp 1.934.269.167 1
Total 25 Rp 30.747.744.762 2
9 HE Hopper NaOH (HE-103)) 1
10 T. Penampung NaOH (TP-103) 1
11 HE T. Netralisasi (T-103) 0
12 Netralisasi (T-103) 0
13 Pompa centrifuge II (P-104) 0
14 centrifuge II (CS-102) 0
15 Pompa T. Pencuci (P-105) 0
16 T. Air Panas (T-01) 0
17 T. Pencuci(D-01) 0
18 Pompa centrifuge III (Cd-01) 0
19 centrifugr III (Acc-01) 0
20 Pompa vakum drier(P-05) 0
21 Pompa vakum (P-05) 0
22 vakum drier (VD-01) 0
23 Pompa T Penampung (P-05) 0
24 T Penampung (T-01) 0
25 Hopper BE (T-01) 0
26 Pompa T Pemucat (P-06) 0
27 HE T Pemucat (C-02) 0
28 Pompa Tangki Pemucat 0
29 T Pemucat (D-02) 0
30 pompa FP (Acc-02) 0
31 FP I (P-08) 0
32 Pompa T P Bleached Oil (P-02) 0
33 T Bleached Oil (P-09) 0
34 Pompa HE deodo (RB-02) 0
35 HE T Deodoriasi (P-09) 0
36 Pompa T. deodorisasi 0
37 T Deodoriasi (P-09) 0
38 cooler I (Cd-03) 0
39 pompa T Kristalisasi (Acc-03) 0
40 T Kristalisasi (P-10) 0
41 cooler II (Cd-03 0
42 Pompa FP II (Rb-03) 0
43 FP II (FP-11) 0
44 Pompa T Stearin (C-03) 0
45 T. Stearin (P-12) 0
46 Pompa T Olein(C-04) 0
47 T olein (P-13) 0
TOTAL 19
Kurs Dollar (2008) : US$1 = Rp. 9159 (16 Mei 2007)
2. H3PO4
Kebutuhan = 20 kg/jam
= 485 kg/hari
= 160,000 kg/tahun
Harga/ kg = $ 0.384 (www.icrsprincing.com)
Rp 5,475
Harga kg per tahun Rp 876,072,084
3. NaOH
Kebutuhan = 240.519 kg/jam
= 5772.456 kg/hari
= 1904910.48 kg/tahun
Harga/ kg = $ 0.32000 (www.icrsprincing.com)
= Rp 4,563
Harga kg per tahun Rp 8,691,877,931
4. BE
Kebutuhan = 443.049 kg/jam
= 10633.176 kg/hari
= 3508948.08 kg/tahun
Harga/ kg = $ 0.221 (www.icrsprincing.com)
= Rp 3,151
Harga kg per tahun Rp 11,057,534,039
1. Alum (AL2(SO4)3
Kebutuhan = 1.775 kg/jam
= 42.6072 kg/hari
= 14060.376 kg/tahun
Harga/ kg = $ 0.346 (PT.Brata chem 2008)
= Rp 4,934
Harga kg per tahun Rp 69,368,468
2.Soda Abu (Na2CO3)
Kebutuhan = 0.959 kg/jam
= 23.016 kg/hari
= 7595.28 kg/tahun
Harga/ kg = $ 0.873 (PT.Brata chem 2008)
= Rp 2,500
Harga kg per tahun Rp 18,988,200
3. NaOH
Kebutuhan = 33.319 kg/jam
= 799.656 kg/hari
= 263886.48 kg/tahun
Harga/ kg = $ 0.330 (PT.Brata chem 2008)
= Rp 4,705
Harga kg per tahun Rp 1,241,709,915
4.NaCL
Kebutuhan = 24.208 kg/jam
= 580.992 kg/hari
= 191727.36 kg/tahun
Harga/ kg = $ 0.382 (PT.Brata chem 2008)
= Rp 5,449
Harga kg per tahun Rp 1,044,682,442
5.Kaporit
Kebutuhan = 1.848 kg/jam
= 44.352 kg/hari
= 14636.16 kg/tahun
Harga/ kg = $ 1.638 (PT.Brata chem 2008)
= Rp 2,000
Harga kg per tahun Rp 29,272,320
2. Stearin
Produksi = 5471.538 kg/jam
= 43334580.96 kg / tahun
Harga per kg (tahun 2008) = Rp 6,000
= $ 0.421
Harga Penjualan per tahun = $ 18,234,623
Rp 260,007,485,760
Investasi pabrik:
Investasi mula-mula (TCI) = Rp 878,698,203,122
Modal sendiri = Rp 527,218,921,873
Modal pinjaman = Rp 351,479,281,249
Tabel E.6 Biaya operasi untuk kapasitas 80%, 90% dan 100% berdasarkan discounted cash flow
No. Kapasitas Biaya operasi ( rupiah )
1. 80% Rp 7,694,893,959,607
2. 90% Rp 8,656,755,704,558
3. 100% Rp 9,618,617,449,508
Total biaya pada akhir masa konstruksi = modal sendiri + modal pinjaman
= Rp 1,021,715,122,662
= 17,510,592,323,571 / Rp 1,021,715,122,662
= 17.138429
Dari perhitungan diperoleh nilai i = 47,34 % per tahun. Harga i yang diperoleh lebih besar dari harga i untuk pinjaman modal pada bank.
Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa pabrik layak untuk didirikan dengan kondisi tingkat bunga bank sebesar 13%.
E.10 Waktu Pengembalian Modal (Payout Time, POT)
Untuk menghitung waktu pengembalian modal, maka dihitung akumulasi modal sebagai berikut:
Tabel E.12 FC, VC, SVC dan S Berdasarkan Kapasitas Produksi (dalam 106)
No Kapasitas FC VC SVC
Produksi
1 0% Rp 512,727,004,290 Rp - Rp 273,961,924,604
2 10% Rp 512,727,004,290 Rp 2,160,609,660 Rp 273,961,924,604
3 20% Rp 512,727,004,290 Rp 4,321,219,320 Rp 273,961,924,604
4 30% Rp 512,727,004,290 Rp 6,481,828,980 Rp 273,961,924,604
5 40% Rp 512,727,004,290 Rp 8,642,438,640 Rp 273,961,924,604
N i l a i V C , S V C , T C , d a n S b e r d a s a r k a n k a p a s i ta s p r o d u k s i
6 50% Rp 512,727,004,290 Rp 10,803,048,300 Rp 273,961,924,604
7 60% Rp 512,727,004,290 Rp 12,963,657,960 Rp 273,961,924,604
8 70% Rp 512,727,004,290 Rp 15,124,267,620 Rp 273,961,924,604
9 80% Rp 512,727,004,290 Rp 17,284,877,280 Rp 273,961,924,604
10 90% Rp 512,727,004,290 Rp 19,445,486,940 Rp 273,961,924,604
11 100% Rp 512,727,004,290 Rp 21,606,096,600 Rp 273,961,924,604
Rp20,000,000,000,000
Rp18,000,000,000,000
Rp16,000,000,000,000
Rp14,000,000,000,000
SVC
Rp12,000,000,000,000
TC
Rp10,000,000,000,000
S
Rp8,000,000,000,000
FC
Rp6,000,000,000,000
Rp4,000,000,000,000
Rp2,000,000,000,000
Rp-
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
1
Kapasitas Produksi (%)
xy
1107108
1177842.7
1176215.2
1141974.9
1160265.4
1121952
1092067.2
7977425.400
Harga Harga
(Rupiah) (US$)
Rp 1,467,631,479 $ -
Rp 93,433,934 $ 6,500
Rp 413,984,198 $ 3,600
Rp 1,282,201,057 $ 89,200
Rp 127,932,617 $ 8,900
Rp 152,369,184 $ 5,300
Rp 549,104,040 $ 38,200
Rp 106,370,940 $ 3,700
Rp 576,415,497 $ 40,100
Rp 94,871,379 $ 6,600
Rp - $ 89,400
Rp - $ 9,700
Rp - $ 5,400
Rp - $ 38,100
Rp - $ 3,550
Rp - $ 6,400
Rp - $ 11,200
Rp - $ 5,400
Rp - $ 38,100
Rp - $ 5,100
Rp - $ 5,100
Rp - $ 84,300
Rp - $ 3,500
Rp - $ 7,300
Rp - $ 6,800
Rp - $ 3,600
Rp - $ 99,600
Rp - $ 3,490
Rp - $ 7,600
Rp - $ 4,900
Rp - $ 88,500
Rp - $ 3,700
Rp - $ 7,500
Rp - $ 20,300
Rp - $ 88,500
Rp - $ 3,800
Rp - $ 9,200
Rp - $ 53,000
Rp - $ 3,900
Rp - $ 8,600
Rp - $ 53,600
Rp - $ 29,700
Rp - $ 99,100
Rp - $ 3,900
Rp - $ 6,600
Rp - $ 3,600
Rp - $ 8,600
Rp 4,864,314,323 $ 1,234,840
Harga (Rupiah) Harga (US$)
Rp 13,992,910 $ 973
Rp 106,370,940 $ 3,700
Rp 156,943,456 $ 5,459
Rp 106,083,451 $ 3,690
Rp 56,060,360 $ 3,900
Rp 106,370,940 $ 3,700
Rp 54,622,915 $ 3,800
Rp 110,395,786 $ 3,840
Rp 40,248,464 $ 2,800
Rp 106,083,451 $ 3,690
Rp 68,997,366 $ 4,800
Rp 112,120,720 $ 3,900
Rp 115,757,456 $ 8,053
Rp 166,743,635 $ 5,800
Rp 1,417,320,899 $ 98,600
Rp 112,120,720 $ 3,900
Rp 618,101,406 $ 43,000
Rp 132,244,952 $ 4,600
Rp 66,122,476 $ 4,600
Rp 11,499,561 $ 400
Rp 97,746,269 $ 3,400
Rp 419,187,749 $ 29,162
Rp 70,434,811 $ 4,900
Rp 11,499,561 $ 400
Rp 419,187,749 $ 29,162
Rp 97,746,269 $ 3,400
Rp 1,080,958,738 $ 75,200
Rp 83,371,818 $ 2,900
Rp 1,380,091,070 $ 96,010
Rp 57,497,805 $ 2,000
Rp 1,466,194,034 $ 102,000
Rp 100,908,648 $ 3,510
Rp 1,425,945,570 $ 99,200
Rp 53,185,470 $ 3,700
Rp 2,874,890 $ 100
Rp 1,287,950,837 $ 89,600
Rp 34,498,683 $ 1,200
Rp 12,267,988 $ 853
Rp 12,267,988 $ 853
Rp 18,833,201 $ 1,310
Rp 19,617,932 $ 1,365
Rp 25,110,953 $ 1,747
Rp 25,110,953 $ 1,747
Rp 31,388,692 $ 2,184
Rp 17,249,342 $ 600
Rp 12,548,896 $ 873
Rp 18,833,215 $ 1,310
Rp 28,249,823 $ 1,965
Rp 28,249,823 $ 1,965
Rp 31,388,692 $ 2,184
Rp 31,388,692 $ 2,184
Rp 12,079,988,024 $ 780,190
Total Gaji/bulan
( rupiah )
Rp 32,000,000
Rp 9,000,000
Rp 24,000,000
Rp 30,000,000
Rp 15,000,000
Rp 21,000,000
Rp 10,000,000
Rp 45,000,000
Rp 24,000,000
Rp 38,000,000
Rp 10,000,000
Rp 7,500,000
Rp 10,500,000
Rp 24,200,000
Rp 4,000,000
Rp 304,200,000
Bulan
Rp 130,256,019,934
Rp 39,076,805,980
Rp 39,076,805,980
Rp 39,076,805,980
Rp 32,564,004,984
Rp 280,050,442,858
Rp 28,005,044,286
Rp 308,055,487,144
Rp 2,310,416,154
Rp 310,365,903,297
Rp 6,207,318,066
Rp 52,102,407,974
Rp 13,025,601,993
Rp 26,051,203,987
Rp 28,743,750,000
Rp 436,496,185,317
Rp 109,124,046,329
Rp 87,299,237,063
Rp 17,459,847,413
Rp 21,824,809,266
0.27 FCI
Rp 235,707,940,071 0,27FCI
+
27% Rp 181,495,113,855
5% Rp 33,610,206,269
Rp 527,218,921,873
Rp 351,479,281,249
Rp 4,469,279,443,000
Rp 2,173,339,200,000
Rp 217,333,920,000
Rp 6,239,970,000
Rp 55,357,986,797
Rp 3,954,141,914
Rp 434,667,840,000
Rp. 0,01 TPC
Rp 7,360,172,501,711 + 0,01 TPC
Rp 15,816,567,656
Rp 39,541,419,141
Rp 7,908,283,828
Rp 79,082,838,281
Rp 142,349,108,906
Rp 384,744,697,980
Rp 673,303,221,466
Rp 480,930,872,475
Rp 1,538,978,791,921
Jumlah ( Rp )
Rp 175,739,640,624
Rp 198,585,793,906
Rp 48,662,306,489
ah pengeluaran modal. Cara yang dilakukan adalah
ebih besar dari harga i untuk pinjaman modal pada bank.
0.3706780584
sitas produksi dimana biaya produksi total sama dengan hasil penjualan.
TC S
Rp 786,688,928,894 Rp -
Rp 788,849,538,554 Rp 1,847,276,394,500
Rp 791,010,148,214 Rp 3,694,552,789,000
Rp 793,170,757,874 Rp 5,541,829,183,500
Rp 795,331,367,534 Rp 7,389,105,578,000
Rp 797,491,977,194 Rp 9,236,381,972,500
Rp 799,652,586,854 Rp 11,083,658,367,000
Rp 801,813,196,514 Rp 12,930,934,761,500
Rp 803,973,806,174 Rp 14,778,211,156,000
Rp 806,134,415,834 Rp 16,625,487,550,500
Rp 808,295,025,494 Rp 18,472,763,945,000
BEP
SVC
TC
S
FC
INVESTASI
Tahun ke Kapasitas Modal Sendiri Modal Pinjaman
Pengeluaran Jumlah Akumulasi Pengeluaran Bunga Jumlah Akumu
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
-1 0% 696,009,508,100 696,009,508,100 696,009,508,100 464,006,338,700 0 464,006,338,700 464,0
-2 0% 696,009,508,100 696,009,508,100 1,392,019,016,200 464,006,338,700 47,560,649,716 511,566,988,416 975,
0 0% 0 1,392,019,016,200 57,029,712,207 57,029,712,207 1,032,6
1 80%
2 90%
3 100%
4 100%
5 100%
6 100%
7 100%
8 100%
9 100%
10 100%
11 100%
12 100%
13 100%
14 100%
15 100%
16 100%
17 100%
18 100%
19 90%
20 80%
Total
Investasi Total Sisa Pinjaman
njaman Pengembalian Hasil Penjualan Biaya Operasi Depresiasi
Akumulasi (3 ) + ( 7) Pinjaman ( 7) - ( 9 )
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
464,006,338,700 1,160,015,846,800 0 0%
975,573,327,116 2,367,592,343,316 0 0%
1,032,603,039,323 2,424,622,055,523 0 1,032,603,039,323 0% 0
103,260,303,932 929,342,735,391 14,778,211,156,000 398,625,680,352 185,913,390,900
103,260,303,932 826,082,431,458 16,625,487,550,500 448,453,890,396 185,913,390,900
103,260,303,932 722,822,127,526 18,472,763,945,000 498,282,100,440 185,913,390,900
103,260,303,932 619,561,823,594 18,472,763,945,000 498,282,100,440 185,913,390,900
103,260,303,932 516,301,519,662 18,472,763,945,000 498,282,100,440 185,913,390,900
103,260,303,932 413,041,215,729 18,472,763,945,000 498,282,100,440 185,913,390,900
103,260,303,932 309,780,911,797 18,472,763,945,000 498,282,100,440 185,913,390,900
103,260,303,932 206,520,607,865 18,472,763,945,000 498,282,100,440 185,913,390,900
103,260,303,932 103,260,303,932 18,472,763,945,000 498,282,100,440 185,913,390,900
103,260,303,932 (0) 18,472,763,945,000 498,282,100,440 185,913,390,900
18,472,763,945,000 498,282,100,440 185,913,390,900
18,472,763,945,000 498,282,100,440 185,913,390,900
18,472,763,945,000 498,282,100,440 185,913,390,900
18,472,763,945,000 498,282,100,440 185,913,390,900
18,472,763,945,000 498,282,100,440 185,913,390,900
18,472,763,945,000 498,282,100,440 185,913,390,900
18,472,763,945,000 498,282,100,440 185,913,390,900
18,472,763,945,000 498,282,100,440 185,913,390,900
16,625,487,550,500 448,453,890,396 185,913,390,900
14,778,211,156,000 398,625,680,352 185,913,390,900
3,718,267,818,000
Bunga dari Sisa Laba Laba
Net Cash Flow
Pinjaman Sebelum pajak Pajak Sesudah pajak Cummulative Net Cash Flow IRR
(13%) x (10) (11)-(12) 25% ( >200 juta) (15) - PPh (13+17)
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
105,841,811,531 14,379,585,475,648 3,594,896,368,912 10,784,689,106,736 10,970,602,497,636 10,970,602,497,636
95,257,630,378 16,177,033,660,104 4,044,258,415,026 12,132,775,245,078 12,318,688,635,978 23,289,291,133,614
84,673,449,224 17,974,481,844,560 4,493,620,461,140 13,480,861,383,420 13,666,774,774,320 36,956,065,907,934
74,089,268,071 17,974,481,844,560 4,493,620,461,140 13,480,861,383,420 13,666,774,774,320 50,622,840,682,254
63,505,086,918 17,974,481,844,560 4,493,620,461,140 13,480,861,383,420 13,666,774,774,320 64,289,615,456,574
52,920,905,765 17,974,481,844,560 4,493,620,461,140 13,480,861,383,420 13,666,774,774,320 77,956,390,230,894
42,336,724,612 17,974,481,844,560 4,493,620,461,140 13,480,861,383,420 13,666,774,774,320 91,623,165,005,214
31,752,543,459 17,974,481,844,560 4,493,620,461,140 13,480,861,383,420 13,666,774,774,320 105,289,939,779,534 69.85%
21,168,362,306 17,974,481,844,560 4,493,620,461,140 13,480,861,383,420 13,666,774,774,320 118,956,714,553,854
10,584,181,153 17,974,481,844,560 4,493,620,461,140 13,480,861,383,420 13,666,774,774,320 132,623,489,328,174
17,974,481,844,560 4,493,620,461,140 13,480,861,383,420 13,666,774,774,320 146,290,264,102,494
17,974,481,844,560 4,493,620,461,140 13,480,861,383,420 13,666,774,774,320 159,957,038,876,814
17,974,481,844,560 4,493,620,461,140 13,480,861,383,420 13,666,774,774,320 173,623,813,651,134
17,974,481,844,560 4,493,620,461,140 13,480,861,383,420 13,666,774,774,320 187,290,588,425,454
17,974,481,844,560 4,493,620,461,140 13,480,861,383,420 13,666,774,774,320 200,957,363,199,774
17,974,481,844,560 4,493,620,461,140 13,480,861,383,420 13,666,774,774,320 214,624,137,974,094
17,974,481,844,560 4,493,620,461,140 13,480,861,383,420 13,666,774,774,320 228,290,912,748,414
17,974,481,844,560 4,493,620,461,140 13,480,861,383,420 13,666,774,774,320 241,957,687,522,734
16,177,033,660,104 4,044,258,415,026 12,132,775,245,078 12,318,688,635,978 254,276,376,158,712
14,379,585,475,648 3,594,896,368,912 10,784,689,106,736 10,598,775,715,836 264,875,151,874,548
harga jual produk $ 15,617,034,496,879.00
biaya produksi (TPC) $ 9,618,617,449,508.42
TCI $ 878,698,203,122.29
depresiasi $ 15,816,567,656.20
$ 6,014,233,615,026.79