id
Kecerdasan Buatan
07 – Markov Chain
Tb Ai Munandar
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OUTLINE
Pengenalan Markov Chain
Matrix Transisi
n-Step Transition Probabilities
Aplikasi Markov Chain
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TRANSITION MATRIX
• Dalam kebanyakan aplikasi, probabilitas transisi ditampilkan sebagai
matriks probabilitas transisi P dengan ukuran s x s. Matriks
probabilitas transisi P dapat ditulis sebagai
𝑃11 … 𝑃1𝑠
𝑃21 … 𝑃2𝑠
𝑃= …
𝑃𝑠1 … 𝑃
𝑠𝑠
𝑠
• Untuk setiap i
𝑝𝑖𝑗 = 1
𝑗=1
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6. Kemudian, gambarkan Transition diagram berdasarkan probabilitas pada matrik transisi di atas
0.1
2. P(X2 = 1 | X0 = 2) = P21(2) P2 = P1 P1
P2 = 0.9 0.1 0.9 0.1
= 0.83 0.17
0.2 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.34 0.66
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PRACTICE 1
Diberikan rantai Markov dengan tiga kemungkinan status 1, 2,
dan 3 serta matriks probabilitas transisi berikut:
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1/2 1/2
1/2 3
1
2/3
1/3
0
1/4
2
0
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PRACTICE 1
1. Tentukan P(X4=3 | X3=2)
2. Tentukan P(X3=1 | X2=1)
3. Jika diketahui P(X0=1) = 1/3, tentukan P(X0=1, X1=2)
4. Jika diketahui P(X0=1) = 1/3, tentukan P(X0=1, X1=2, X2=3)
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Terimakasih
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