TUGAS PEMILIHAN MODA SPLIT LOGIT

MATA KULIAH : PEMODELAN SISTEM TRANSPORTASI

KELAS : S1 TEKNIK SIPIL REG-A
KELOMPOK 2 :
1. Catur Raga Hidayahna (193550043)
2. Hatta Maulana Zebua (5193550032)
3. M. Hakka nufikha (5193250001)
4. Junita T. Boangmanalu (5191250007)
5. Frianda Bastian Sihotang (5193550003)
6. Yuli Yanti Siringoringo (5193250006)
7. Yosia Sebastian Mario Siahaan (5193250002)
8. Sakkot Matua Gong Hasibuan (5193550046)
9. Jeremia Sitorus (5193550021)
10. Yoga Wahyudi Nasution (5173550052)
11. Desi Paskalia Tinambunan (5193550011)
12. Salsabila Dela Kirani (5193250007)
13. Agung Teguh Mahendra (5173550006)
14. Achmad maulady hasibuan(5193550042)
15. Adinda Dian Padang (5193550030)
Model pemilihan moda antara jalan raya (bus) dengan moda jalan rel (kereta api) dengan menggunakan model logit biner selisih.

1. Data hasil survey koridor – 1

Zona % Pengguna
CBus CKA
Asal Tujuan Bus KA
1 2 90 80 70 30
1 3 80 65 75 25
2 1 65 85 90 10
2 3 70 80 85 15
3 1 75 90 80 20
3 2 85 60 75 25

CKA - CBus Loge{P1/(1-P1)}

CBus CKA XiYi Xi2 exp-(A+Bxi) P=1/(1+exp-[A+Bxi])
Xi Yi
90 80 -10 0,847297860 -8,472978604 100 0,303377767 0,76723727
80 65 -15 1,098612289 -16,47918433 225 0,338530315 0,747088048
65 85 20 2,197224577 43,94449155 400 0,157145106 0,864195851
70 80 10 1,734601055 17,34601055 100 0,195671913 0,836349829
75 90 15 1,386294361 20,79441542 225 0,175353595 0,850807794
85 60 -25 1,098612289 -27,46530722 625 0,421526805 0,703468972
 -5 8,362642432 29,66744737 1675    
Nilai B : : 0,02192697
Nilai A : : 1,41204622

Y = BX + A = 0.0273X + 1.324
 A= 1,412
B= 0,0219

2.5

2.0
f(x) = 0.0219269722053549 x + 1.4120462154324
Loge = PBus/PKA

1.5 R² = 0.650659873680952

1.0

0.5

0.0
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
CKA - CBus

Persamaan Logit
Kurva Logit

Misalkan masukkan nilai :

CKA - CBus PBus

200 0,996974
160 0,992756
120 0,982763
80 0,959542
40 0,907972
0 0,804088
-40 0,630641
-80 0,415297
-120 0,228079
-160 0,10946
-200 0,048645
 1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
PBus

0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250
CKA - CBus

2. Data hasil survey koridor - 2

Zona % Pengguna
CBus CKA
Asal Tujuan Bus KA
1 2 90 65 60 40
1 3 70 50 70 30
2 1 65 85 80 20
2 3 60 70 85 15
3 1 60 80 90 10
3 2 80 65 75 25
 CKA - CBus Loge{P1/(1-P1)}
CBus CKA XiYi Xi2 exp-(A+Bxi) P=1/(1+exp-[A+Bxi])
Xi Yi
90 65 -25 0,405465108 -10,1366277 625 0,526617503 0,655042928
70 50 -20 0,847297860 -16,94595721 400 0,459427548 0,685200167
65 85 20 1,386294361 27,72588722 400 0,154166841 0,866425862
60 70 10 1,734601055 17,34601055 100 0,202557108 0,83156134
60 80 20 2,197224577 43,94449155 400 0,154166841 0,866425862
80 65 -15 1,098612289 -16,47918433 225 0,400810209 0,713872581
 -10 7,669495251 45,45462008 2150    
Nilai B : : 0,02729865
Nilai A : : 1,32374695

Y = BX + A = 0.0273X + 1.324

A= 1,324
B= 0,0273
Persamaan Logit

Kurva Logit

Misalkan masukkan nilai :

CKA - CBus PBus

200 0,998869
160 0,996637
120 0,990044
80 0,970904
40 0,918016
0 0,789804
-40 0,557692
-80 0,297309
-120 0,124326
-160 0,045476
-200 0,015735
3. Data hasil survey koridor - 3

Zona % Pengguna
CBus CKA
Asal Tujuan Bus KA
1 2 80 35 65 35
1 3 60 75 80 20
2 1 50 70 90 10
2 3 60 80 85 15
3 1 65 85 80 20
3 2 90 60 60 40

CKA - CBus Loge{P1/(1-P1)}

CBus CKA XiYi Xi2 exp-(A+Bxi) P=1/(1+exp-[A+Bxi])
Xi Yi
80 35 -45 0,619039208 -27,85676438 2025 0,679264146 0,595498929
 60 75 15 1,386294361 20,79441542 225 0,20420673 0,830422198
50 70 20 2,197224577 43,94449155 400 0,184744988 0,844063499
60 80 20 1,734601055 34,69202111 400 0,184744988 0,844063499
65 85 20 1,386294361 27,72588722 400 0,184744988 0,844063499
90 60 -30 0,405465108 -12,16395324 900 0,502975153 0,665346994
 0 7,728918671 87,13609767 4350    
Nilai B : : 0,02003129
Nilai A : : 1,28815311

Y = BX + A = 0.0273X + 1.324

A= 1,288
B= 0,0200
 2.5

2.0
Loge = PBus/PKA

f(x) = 0.0200312868211857
1.5 x + 1.28815311191308
R² = 0.76829658352812

1.0

0.5

0.0
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
CKA - CBus

Persamaan Logit

Kurva Logit

Misalkan masukkan nilai :

CKA - CBus PBus
200 0,995005
 160 0,988938
120 0,975682
80 0,947383
40 0,889869
0 0,783834
-40 0,619376
-80 0,422053
-120 0,246828
-160 0,128213
-200 0,061913

1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
PBus

0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250
CKA - CBus